CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Europe & Central Asia

Serbia

Serbian government published statement condemning all war crimes before 11 July Srebrenica memorial, attended by Serbian President Tadic. 8 former secret police convicted for kidnap and murder of former President Stambolic, including man accused of masterminding 2003 assassination of Serbian PM Djindjic. Montenegrin PM Djukanovic called for referendum on independence between February and April 2006. NATO Secretary General de Hoop Scheffer and Serbia and Montenegro (SCG) Foreign Minister Draskovic signed agreement on land lines of communication across SCG territory to enable faster reaction in event of unrest in Kosovo; Serbian government claimed wrongly bypassed in decision made by SCG.

Europe & Central Asia

Serbia

Serbian politics dominated by war crimes issue. Video shown in Hague Milosevic trial 1 June, rebroadcast throughout Serbia, directly linked Serbian Interior Ministry “Scorpions” unit to 1995 Srebrenica massacre, bringing condemnation from PM Vojislav Kostunica and President Boris Tadic; yet parliament failed to adopt resolution condemning massacre. Government denied media speculation was negotiating with Ratko Mladic. U.S. rewarded cooperation with Hague tribunal by resuming $10 million aid 9 June. Bosnia's High Rep. Paddy Ashdown censured FM Vuk Draskovic for openly linking future of Bosnia's Republika Srpska to Kosovo independence, implying Serbia should receive Bosnian territory. Kostunica outraged Montenegrins by presenting list of potential Montenegrin voters inside Serbia for referendum on Montenegro’s independence to EU.

Europe & Central Asia

Serbia

Serbian government argued no Kosovo standards met and continued to pressure Kosovo Serbs to boycott participation in Provisional Institutions of Self Government. No more transfers to Hague tribunal after 3 months of consistent cooperation. President Boris Tadic and PM Vojislav offered repeatedly to meet Kosovo Albanian counterparts - both refused. Belgrade and Podgorica continued with radically opposing visions of state union's future. Serbia received extension until end of year on its 3 year IMF agreement. Influential Serbian Orthodox Church sent strong isolationist signals throughout month.

Europe & Central Asia

Serbia

Significant progress towards EU integration: EU Council of Ministers endorsed European Commission’s decision to begin negotiations on Stabilisation and Association Agreement 25 April. Two Hague indictees surrendered: former Yugoslav Army chief-of-staff Nebojsa Pavkovic; former Republika Srpska police general Ljubomir Borovcanin. Javier Solana met State-Union officials to resolve functioning of parliament by extending present mandate (had expired 3 March). Serbian government showing increasing signs of flexibility on Kosovo. President Boris Tadic twice publicly offered to meet with Kosovo President Ibrahim Rugova: rebuffed both times. Kostunica publicly stated compromise will be necessary calling autonomy, less than independence”.

Europe & Central Asia

Serbia

State Union parliament's mandate expired 3 March. No new elections called, but parliament continued to function. Four ICTY indictees surrendered, 12 still remain. Police issued warrant for retired general Nebojsa Pavkovic. PM Kostunica said government to announce new Kosovo policy at end of month and mentioned several possible options, all of which exclude independence, but by month end promised policy failed to materialise. Anti-semitic posters and graffiti appeared throughout Serbia, as right wing website published names of prominent Serbian Jews. Serbia hoping for green light from EU on starting feasibility study for accession; landmark textile import agreement signed 31 March.

Europe & Central Asia

Serbia

Serbian President Boris Tadic visited Kosovo, insisting Serbian sovereignty. General Vladimir Lazarevic and Bosnian Serb generals Milan Gvero and Radivoj Miletic surrendered to ICTY. Term of state union parliament to expire 3 March, with no date for elections and disagreement between Serbia and Montenegro over how to proceed. Montenegrin government proposed alliance of 2 independent states: although rejected by Belgrade, no signs state union will collapse. BIA chief Rade Bulatovic accused of handing classified documents to CIA. President Tadic returned Labour Law to parliament following irregularities in final text.

Europe & Central Asia

Serbia

New crisis emerged in south Serbia’s Presevo Valley with 7 January fatal shooting by Serb soldier of 16-year-old Albanian boy illegally crossing border. Albanian majority Presevo municipal assembly called for army to withdraw from south Serbia and for international military presence to replace it. Government attempted to reconstruct Coordination Body for south Serbia and to include Albanians, who remain hesitant. Shooting led to Belgrade internal debate as to whether army or police best suited for guarding border with Macedonia and Kosovo. U.S. government cut all financial assistance to Serbian government (U.S.$10m) and announced withdrawal of technical advisory personnel due to lack of cooperation with ICTY; EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana cancelled trip to Belgrade due to lack of Hague cooperation and deadlock over elections for state union parliament; EU commissioner for enlargement Ollie Rehn in Belgrade 25 January; warned failure to cooperate with Hague restricting progress towards EU integration. ICTY indictee General Vladimir Lazarevic announced 28 January he would surrender in early February.

Europe & Central Asia

Serbia

U.S. Ambassador for War Crimes Pierre-Richard Prosper blamed PM Vojislav Kostunica for “zero cooperation” with ICTY. President Tadic’s call for early parliamentary elections criticised by other parliamentary parties. Heightened tensions with international community over High Rep. Paddy Ashdown’s moves against Bosnia’s Serb Republic and Kosovo Serb electricity cut-off. Army moved combat units south and transferred ground forces HQ unit from Belgrade to Nis. Hard-line Army Chief of Staff Branko Krga replaced by Dragan Paskas. Poll carried out by Montenegrin NGO indicated 73% of voters would vote in independence referendum, 2 thirds of them in favour. World Bank approved new 3-year arrangement for Serbia-Montenegro, worth $550m while International Monetary Fund approved 9th $95m instalment of current arrangement for bolstering hard currency reserves and balance of payments.

Europe & Central Asia

Serbia

Apparent assassination attempt on President Boris Tadic 30 November as car tried to ram motorcade; Tadic unhurt; risk of further attempts as Vienna- based “Serbian Patriotic Organisation” issued death threats against Tadic, FM Vuk Draskovic and state union President Marovic. Serbian government rocked by scandals while Tadic in open conflict with PM Vojislav Kostunica; may try to bring down government. Serious questions arising about control over security structures. Hague Tribunal Chief Prosecutor Carla del Ponte briefed UN Security Council on 23 November - said Belgrade deliberately ignoring legal obligations. U.S. Congress conditioned Serbian aid for 2005 on arrest and extradition to ICTY of Mladic. Energy lobby leading to possible political shakeup in Montenegro. Relations between Belgrade and Podgorica increasingly frayed.

Europe & Central Asia

Serbia

In highly publicised break with PM Vojislav Kostunica, President Boris Tadic called on Kosovo Serbs to vote in Kosovo's parliamentary elections and ignore Kostunica's boycott call - caused governmental crisis and beginning of parliamentary effort to recall Tadic. Highly influential "Godfather" of Greater Serbian nationalist ideology, Dobrica Cosic, published new book calling for partition of Kosovo. Democratic Party (DS) candidate Nenad Bogdanovic won Belgrade mayoral race in second round elections. More than month after local elections, discussions continued on forming municipal governments - Kostunica's Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) seeming to show preference for coalitions with SRS and Milosevic's SPS. Milosevic trial adjourned 22 October due to lack of witnesses, and his court-appointed defender Steven Kay resigned, throwing entire proceeding into disarray. Justice minister Zoran Stojkovic said Serbia will not arrest 4 generals indicted by ICTY. Bosnian Serb war crimes suspect Ljubisa Beara appeared before ICTY 12 October after Serb police apprehended and transferred him to Hague.

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