Crisis of confidence in political leadership intensified, with increasing discussion on who will replace unpopular PM Yatsenyuk, facing ongoing calls to resign despite surviving Feb no-confidence vote. Leading candidate is current speaker and close associate of President Poroshenko Vladimir Groysman. Fending off calls for snap elections, Poroshenko 23 March urged parliament to approve new PM and cabinet by 29 March, no agreement reached by month’s end. Crisis prompting growing concern among Ukraine’s international partners over commitment to reforms needed to secure $1.7bn IMF assistance. European Commission President Juncker 17 March said EU would formally propose visa-free travel for Ukrainian citizens, two days after Ukrainian parliament passed anti-corruption bill requiring officials to declare their assets online. Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin, apparently dismissed by president in Feb, resumed his duties 16 March; parliament voted to fire him 29 March. Ukrainian military volunteer Nadia Savchenko, held in Russia since June 2014 on charges of calling in artillery strike that killed two Russian journalists, sentenced 22 March to 22 years’ jail; Ukraine extended sanctions on Russian individuals and institutions, called for new EU sanctions. In east, exchanges of gunfire and artillery continued along the line of separation, with Ukrainian army reporting several casualties. Throughout month both sides accused the other of using large-calibre weapons in defiance of Minsk agreement. OSCE special monitoring mission officers continue to report regular obstruction of their work by both sides, and patchy implementation of agreement to withdraw heavy weapons from front line. Minsk and Normandy group consultations on the conflict continued without substantive progress or result, including talks in Paris 3 March, at which sides failed to agree on elections in separatist entities. U.S. and EU extended sanctions on individuals and entities benefitting from Russian annexation of Crimea.

Upsurge of artillery exchanges, growing questions from all sides about Minsk’s viability, and further undermining of President Poroshenko’s standing all cast doubt on progress of reform agenda in Kyiv and implementation of Minsk agreements. Military reported escalated fighting in east, including three Ukrainian soldiers killed mid-month, international monitors voicing concern over increased shelling in recent weeks. Separatist leader Denis Pushilin 14 Feb said separatists would push ahead with integration of their republics into Russia as a “counterweight” to Ukraine’s implementation of Minsk; other separatist sources report that unification of the two separatist enclaves is again under preliminary discussion. French and German FMs travelled to Ukraine 22-23 Feb to call for faster reforms and implementation of Minsk agreements. Political chaos in Kyiv intensified;  16 Feb no-confidence vote in govt and PM Yatsenyuk failed, however episode widely seen as undermining President Poroshenko’s credibility, who hours before vote had publicly urged Yatsenyuk to resign. After vote, two fractions, Yuliya Timoshenko’s Batkivshchyna and Samopomich, both announced plans to leave governing coalition. Poroshenko requested resignation of controversial Prosecutor-General Viktor Shokin. Economy and Trade Minister Aivaras Abromavicius resigned 3 Feb, claiming that close adviser of Poroshenko had tried to impose upon him deputy ministers who were not qualified; ten leading Western ambassadors issued joint statement expressing dismay at resignation. IMF voiced concern at “slow progress in improving governance and fighting corruption”, casting doubt on prospects of IMF-supported program. Power struggles continued in separatist areas, with senior Donetsk leader Alexander Khodakovsky coming out in open opposition to Alexander Zakharchenko and another separatist leader.

Amid ongoing accusations of ceasefire violations between Ukrainian army and separatists, three Ukrainian soldiers and two rebels reported killed in separate incidents in east early Jan; fourth Ukrainian soldier reported killed 23 Jan. Kyiv and separatist negotiators meeting in Minsk 13 Jan agreed to abide by ceasefire. U.S. Asst Sec State Victoria Nuland and Putin aide Vladislav Surkov 15 Jan held “brain-storming” session in Russian enclave Kaliningrad; other U.S.-Russia consultations took place during month. OSCE monitors reported they came under fire SW of Donetsk 16 Jan. Poroshenko 14 Jan said Ukraine prepared to restore electricity supply to Crimea if it rejoins Ukraine; Ukraine cut off trade with Crimea 18 Jan. EU-Ukraine free trade agreement came into force 1 Jan. Russia same day banned import of Ukrainian food products; Ukraine reciprocated. Poroshenko failed to obtain support needed for vital Minsk-related constitutional amendments, postponed vote. PM Yatsenyuk 24 Jan called for referendum on new constitution; Poroshenko said no special status for east until lasting ceasefire in place. EU 18 Jan urged Kyiv to implement promised reforms. Central Bank 28 Jan issued revised growth forecast for 2016, 1.1%, down from 2.4% predicted Nov 2015. UN announced extension of humanitarian food aid to east.

UN reported death toll from conflict in east now over 9,000 since April 2014, also reported “significant reduction of hostilities” in some areas with limited pullback of heavy weaponry, but reported “continuing inflow of ammunition, weaponry and fighters from Russian Federation”. Despite holiday ceasefire agreed 22 Dec, Ukrainian authorities 27 Dec reported one soldier, one civilian killed in fighting north of Donetsk; separatists claimed two civilians died. OSCE said an observer came under fire near Mariupol 27 Dec. Security officials reported one officer killed during special operation against alleged saboteurs, including three Russian and four Ukrainian citizens, in Kharkiv 9 Dec. Russian President Putin visited Crimea 2 Dec, promised new supplies of electricity following Nov damage of Crimean power lines. PM Yatsenyuk 16 Dec said Ukraine will suspend trade with Crimea. Prominent Luhansk separatist commander Pavel Dryomov killed in car bomb 12 Dec. EU ambassadors 18 Dec agreed to six month sanction extension on Russia; U.S. 22 Dec expanded list of individuals and companies on sanctions list. Visiting Kyiv early month, U.S. VP Biden announced $190mn new financial aid, called for continued reforms. U.S. and Russian FMs mid-Dec discussed implementation of Minsk agreements. PM Yatsenyuk 18 Dec said Ukraine would not repay $3bn debt owed to Russia despite Russia’s threat to sue; followed failure to agree on restructuring of Russian debt. Moscow announced it would suspend free trade zone with Kyiv in response to EU-Ukraine free trade agreement, President Poroshenko said Kyiv “ready to pay the price”; parliament 24 Dec approved trade embargo against Russia. EU 18 Dec backed visa-free travel for Ukraine; but will need sign-off of EU parliament and EU member parliaments.

Month saw flare-up of skirmishing and explosions along line of separation, however few casualties reported; OSCE attributed some apparent signs of military action to live-fire exercises and demining by both sides. Sides 11 Nov blamed each other for violating ceasefire. OSCE reported patchy implementation of arms pullback from front line, with both sides failing to provide information on numbers of weapons or lists of storage sites. Crimea experienced power outage following attack on electricity pylon 20 Nov; de facto authorities declared state of emergency 25 Nov. Russia cut gas supplies to Ukraine 25 Nov overpayment dispute; Ukraine same day said it had decided to stop purchasing Russian gas; also announced Russian airlines banned from flying over Ukraine. Following Normandy group meeting 6 Nov, Russian FM Lavrov noted that full implementation of Minsk agreement, scheduled for end of 2015, would extend well into 2016. Western leaders meeting on margins of G20 in Turkey 21 Nov agreed to extend sanctions on Russia by six months until July 2016, despite calls to cooperate more closely in fight against Islamic State. Amid ongoing discussions over restructuring of Ukraine’s foreign debt, President Putin mid-Nov announced Russia will extend payback period for $3bn loan; PM Yatsenyuk rejected proposal. Kyiv faced further pressure from allies, most notably Odessa governor and former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, and U.S. Ambassador Geoffrey Pyatt, to push through reforms.

Building on Sept ceasefire, talks in Paris between Russia and Ukraine 2 Oct saw deal on elections in east, and withdrawal of small-calibre weapons; also greater access for OSCE monitors in separatist-held areas. President Hollande noted Minsk agreement cannot be fully implemented by year-end as planned. Ukrainian govt forces and separatists 5 Oct began withdrawing weaponry of 100mm or less from line of separation. Separatists 6 Oct announced highly contentious local elections would be delayed from Oct/Nov to Feb 2016; Moscow, Kyiv, U.S. and EU welcomed move. Kyiv reiterated demand for withdrawal of all troops and military hardware from east before polls there. Separatists 6 Oct demanded amnesty for participants in conflict, local powers and constitutional changes. Standoff between separatist Ministry of State Security and other senior local leaders in Luhansk suggested power struggle in entity. Local elections across Ukraine 25 Oct saw Poroshenko’s governing coalition retain support in west and centre, drop in support for PM Yatsenyuk’s allies, and advances for Opposition Bloc, composed of Yanukovych-era politicians, in south and east; elections did not take place in Mariupol and Krasnoarmiisk; complete results expected 4 Nov. Dutch Air Safety board inquiry 13 Oct found Malaysian airlines flight MH17 destroyed 17 July 2014 by “9N314M-model warhead carried on the 9M38-series of missiles, as installed on the Buksurface-to-air missile system”; said missile fired from separatist-controlled territory. Russia and Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) rejected report as “deeply biased”. DPR expelled Médecins Sans Frontières late month.

Both sides largely upheld renewed ceasefire starting 1 Sept, with some small-scale violations and reports of civilian casualties in separatist regions. During visit to Crimea, Russian President Putin 12 Sept welcomed cessation of fighting; statement came as observers point to Moscow’s apparent diminishing enthusiasm for separatist cause. Following meeting to discuss implementation of Feb 2015 Minsk peace agreement and withdrawal of heavy weapons from contact line, FMs of Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany 12 Sept reported “significant progress”; however little movement of weapons observed on the ground. NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg 24 Sept said Russian troops still present in east. Amid tensions within separatist leadership, president of self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) parliament Andrei Purgin dismissed and detained by DPR security forces 4 Sept, released 8 Sept. Separatist leaders 16 Sept announced local elections in DPR and Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) to take place 18 Oct and 1 Nov; President Poroshenko said decision contravenes Feb Minsk deal, which stipulates elections in separatist regions take place under Ukrainian law, and extended sanctions against individuals and entities with suspected links to separatist regions. Ultra-nationalist Radical Party 1 Sept left coalition govt following 31 Aug initial approval of law giving more autonomy to separatist regions. U.S. and EU 2 Sept extended sanctions against Russian and Ukrainian individuals with connections to March 2014 Crimea annexation by Russia and violence in east. Parliament 17 Sept approved debt restructuring deal reached with creditors late Aug. Govt 8 Sept accepted International Criminal Court jurisdiction over crimes committed in Ukraine since Feb 2014. Crimean Tatar movements 21 Sept announced indefinite blockade of food deliveries from Ukraine. President Obama and President Putin 28 Sept met on fringes of UNGA, but little movement from either side on Ukraine.

Exchanges of heavy artillery and shelling along contact line continued, including 9 Aug attack destroying four OSCE armoured vehicles in Donetsk, and intense shelling 14 Aug that left two civilians dead, fifteen injured. Limited direct infantry clashes, including 10 Aug attack by separatists reportedly leaving one govt soldier dead, thirteen wounded. During contact group meeting including govt and separatists, Russia, EU and OSCE representatives 26 Aug agreed to renewed ceasefire starting 1 Sept. Parliament 31 Aug gave initial approval to draft law on special status for separatist regions; dozens of nationalists protested outside parliament against law, clashed with security forces, one security officer killed, dozens wounded by grenade reportedly thrown by protesters. Ukraine and Russia traded accusations of ceasefire violations: Russian FM Sergei Lavrov 17 Aug said Ukraine preparing new offensive. Govt and international creditors 27 Aug announced debt restructuring deal, including write-off of 20% of Ukraine’s debt.

Fighting, mostly involving heavy artillery, resumed in second half of month: eight Ukrainian soldiers reported killed, sixteen injured in separatist attack 15 July. Increasing tension and violence in western Ukraine: at least one dead, seven injured in standoff between police and ultra-nationalist Right Sector 11-13 July in Zakarpattia; Right Sector 21 July rallied in Kiev against govt policies, said will start campaign to organise referendum on President Poroshenko’s impeachment, recognition of volunteer militia units. Poroshenko 1 July proposed constitutional changes to give some self-determination to separatist-controlled regions; parliament 16 July voted to send proposal to Constitutional Court. Russia and separatists 2 July criticised proposal, said leaders of breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DPR and LPR) not consulted. DPR 2 July announced local elections on 18 October, under auspices of expected law on special status of breakaway areas; 18 July said it will withdraw heavy weaponry from line of separation. Some 2,000 Ukrainian troops 20 July began military drills with NATO countries; Russia 21 July said exercises disrupting implementation of Minsk agreement. U.S. 24 July announced it will begin training Ukrainian troops; will supplement ongoing U.S. training of National Guard, which will end in Nov. Responding to western criticism at slow pace of reform, parliament adopted four laws aimed at unblocking $2.7bn due from IMF and World Bank in Aug.

Month saw heaviest fighting since Feb, including clashes between army and separatists near Maryinka and Krasnohorivka towns west of Donetsk 3 June, leaving at least 26 dead and reportedly involving heavy artillery; separatist commanders described fighting as counter-attack in response to constant Ukrainian “provocations”. President Poroshenko 6 June said separatists forced out of Maryinka, however low grade fighting continued throughout month. FMs of France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia met 23 June to discuss crisis in east, urged sides to implement ceasefire, withdraw heavy weapons. Speaking to parliament 4 June Poroshenko said more than 9,000 Russian troops currently in Ukraine, warned of “full-scale invasion”. International pressure on Russia continued: EU 22 June extended economic sanctions until Jan 2016; G7 leaders 8 June said further sanctions possible; U.S. 23 June said it will send tanks and arms to Eastern Europe, Baltic countries in response to Russian actions in Ukraine. NATO 24 June said it will increase number of Response Force troops from 13,000 to 40,000; NATO chief 25 June warned of risk of heavy fighting in Ukraine, urged Moscow to cease support to separatists. Some 500 people protested in Donetsk 15 June calling on separatist leaders to remove rocket launchers from residential neighbourhoods. Kyiv’s chief debt talks envoy 28 June said Ukraine will suspend international debt repayments if agreement on debt restructuring not reached; IMF 19 June welcomed reforms to strengthen country’s central bank, said second tranche of bailout could be disbursed despite stalemate in restructuring talks.