In strategy change viewed as initiated by Moscow, separatist leader Oleg Tsarev 20 May announced “Novorossiya” project to create new state from Russian border to Moldova “frozen”; many separatist supporters denounced move as betrayal by Moscow. Followed high-level diplomatic exchanges between Moscow and West including meetings between President Putin and U.S. Sec State Kerry 12 May, German Chancellor Merkel 10 May. Separatist social media sites claimed Kremlin responsible for death in ambush of separatist commander and Novorossiya supporter Alexei Mozgovoy on 23 May, while top separatist officials blamed Ukrainian special forces. Month saw further violations of Feb Minsk ceasefire with intensified shelling, continued fighting with evidence of Russian involvement, including use of heavy weaponry. U.S., NATO and Ukraine 13 May condemned Russian military buildup in Crimea, called for stop to “deliberate destabilisation” of east. Parliament 19 May adopted law allowing govt to suspend debt repayments as foreign debt restructuring is negotiated; Moscow said it will adopt “tough position” if Ukraine fails to repay $3 billion loan. International observers expressed concern at govt plans to suspend some key human rights, including right of movement in separatist-controlled areas.

Despite initial claims by both sides to have pulled back heavy weaponry from front line in compliance with Feb Minsk agreement, shelling along separation line resumed around 12 April, breaking over a month of calm, and intensified during month, particularly near Mariupol and outside Donetsk city. Ukrainian army 13 April launched tank probe on separatist positions north of Donetsk airport, substantial casualties reported on both sides; numerous separatist sources reported Russian intervention to push back attack. Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) leader Zakharchenko 18 April said Ukraine building up troops on line of separation, warned DNR will expand control to all of Donetsk oblast if fighting breaks out again; said DNR moving further away from Ukraine. Zakharchenko late month told Der Spiegel separatists redeploying heavy weaponry on front lines in response to alleged Ukrainian violations of Minsk agreements; later claimed he was misquoted, but separatist commentators note some heavy weaponry already returned to front. Military training continuing on both sides: U.S. 17 April confirmed 300 soldiers arrived in Ukraine to train its military. Russian President Putin 16 April said no Russian troops in Ukraine; U.S. 22 April said Russia building up troops on border. EU 27 April said it will not send armed peacekeepers to Ukraine, will send civilian assessment mission as soon as possible; also said Kyiv needs to speed up crucial reforms to seek closer political association and economic integration with EU. Poroshenko said he planned to have all conditions in place to apply for EU membership in five years. Russian defence ministry 1 April said under new conscription law 500 draftees from Crimea will be recruited to Russian army by July 2015, will stay in region after training. Living conditions continued to deteriorate in separatist-controlled areas. Amid ongoing economic crisis, Ukraine’s biggest mining and steel company, owned by politically influential oligarch Rinat Akhmetov, announced it has defaulted on its debt obligations. Kyiv and Moscow 2 April signed short-term deal allowing Ukraine to buy gas from Russia at lower price.

Drop in civilian and military casualties following Feb Minsk agreement, though implementation of deal still behind schedule, clashes continue in some areas including near Mariupol. Kyiv and separatists early month said they withdrew heavy weaponry from line of contact, but accuse each other of moving weaponry back to former positions after observers’ inspections, and renewed troop build-ups. Separatist commentators alluding with increasing frequency to new, possibly major offensive; suggest 10-13 March visit by Russian Defence Minister Shoigu to Rostov (Russian oblast adjoining self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, DNR) connected to planning for offensive. MPs in Kyiv approved changes to “special status” law for separatist areas, which will now only come into force after local elections; separatists and Moscow claim changes breach Minsk deal. Reshuffle of senior officials continues in DNR, along with reports of purges and crackdowns on what separatist leaders describe as organised crime and military groups which have not accepted central control; President Putin admitted in 8 March TV interview that Russia’s March 2014 annexation of Crimea was planned weeks in advance. At European Council meeting 19-20 March EU leaders decided to extend sanctions on Russia until year-end; also confirmed EU’s support for OSCE mission, called for third financial support package, action plan on strategic communication. UK announced plan to supply Ukraine with non-lethal military equipment, sent personnel to provide military advice and training. U.S. also plans training, non-lethal military aid, placed sanctions on several separatists. Several officers and junior commanders who took part in Debaltseve campaign published open letter mid-March alleging serious failings by high command during operation, calling for those responsible to be dismissed. President Poroshenko 25 March fired powerful oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky as governor of eastern Dnipropetrovsk, after armed men loyal to him stormed offices of state-owned oil company. Two senior officials arrested for graft during televised cabinet meeting 25 March.

Month saw one of heaviest defeats yet for Ukraine with fall of major military garrison at Debaltseve to rebels days after signing of peace deal, also increasing Russian pressure on Kyiv, deepening economic crisis. New peace agreement announced 12 Feb in Minsk; key elements include ceasefire to start 15 Feb, withdrawal of heavy weaponry from contact line, exchange of prisoners, amnesty for crimes committed during fighting, withdrawal of “foreign armed formations”; also local elections in east, constitutional reform providing unspecified form of decentralisation, and adoption of permanent “special status” for certain areas. Hostilities continued unabated, Debaltseve fell 18 Feb. Moscow rejected accusations of extensive Russian involvement in last phase of Debaltseve battle, including advanced weaponry, regular combat forces and command and control. U.S. Sec State Kerry 4 Feb said U.S. weighing option of supplying arms to Kyiv. Limited prisoner exchange took place 21 Feb; reports of limited pull back of heavy weapons 26 Feb with reports ceasefire holding in some areas. Govt under increasing criticism domestically over economy and slowness in reform, major currency depreciation; also anger directed at political and military leadership among troops involved in Debaltseve fighting. UN launched new humanitarian appeal amid reports of increasingly dire conditions in east. Russia late month threatened to cut off gas supply as Ukraine struggled to make payments. IMF 12 Feb announced €15.5bn package for Ukraine over four years. Attacks on civilian targets continued including three killed when shell hit hospital in Donetsk city 4 Feb. Four killed in explosion at march in Kharkiv 22 Feb.

Most intense fighting for months in eastern Ukraine resulted in heavy civilian and military casualties, further undermined peace talks. Fighting escalated mid-month; separatists and Moscow blamed Kyiv for attacking separatist positions at Donetsk airport, however separatists say offensive planned several weeks earlier. Ten civilians killed in missile attack on bus at military checkpoint SW of Donetsk city 13 Jan; Kyiv blamed separatists, separatists denied. Despite flurry of diplomatic activity early Jan, planned summit for leaders of Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France in Kazakhstan 15 Jan cancelled. Govt forces pulled back from key positions at Donetsk airport 21 Jan in response to rebel gains. Thirteen people killed in attack on Donetsk bus stop 22 Jan, sides blamed each other. Separatist leader Alexander Zakharchenko 23 Jan announced plans to take control of entire Donetsk province. 30 civilians killed, dozens injured in rocket attack on govt-held city Mariupol 24 Jan. UN 26 Jan said rockets fired from separatist-held areas, intentionally targeted civilians. U.S. President Obama said U.S. considering all options short of military action against Russia. Kyiv said Russia still sending troops into Ukraine (denied by Russia), also weapons systems, military training for separatists in Russia. At emergency meeting 29 Jan EU FMs agreed to extend and expand sanctions; stressed Russia’s responsibility for recent events in Mariupol, Donetsk and Luhansk, called for Russia to exert influence to induce separatists to cease hostilities, fulfil Sept commitments. Hundreds of civilians reported fleeing fighting around Debaltseve late month; dozens killed including fifteen Ukrainian soldiers 30-31 Jan. Further talks between Kyiv and separatists in Minsk 31 Jan failed to produce agreement.

Fighting abated during month, though violence started to pick up toward end Dec. Leaders from Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany 22 Dec announced another round of peace talks to be held in Minsk. Moscow and Kyiv said leaders had agreed on need to respect ceasefire, separate armies, pull out troops and heavy weapons and release prisoners. Talks on 24 Dec however produced little progress. 26 Dec talks cancelled, though planned prisoner swap did take place. Germany 28 Dec called on Russia to use influence on separatists to implement ceasefire. Govt late Dec announced police and military anti-terror operation in Odessa, scene of several small bombings, at least one fatal. Other suspected terrorist incidents, so far relatively small, reportedly recently in Kharkiv and elsewhere; seen as pro-separatist efforts to undermine Kyiv govt. Parliament 22 Dec voted 303-8 to drop country’s non-aligned status and seek NATO membership, prompting anger in Moscow. EU, U.S. and Canada 18-19 Dec introduced further sanctions on investment and trade with Crimea and further individuals and companies; Russia said it would not give up Crimea. Russian rouble continued to lose value. Ukrainian parliament early Dec approved new govt to be headed by PM Arseniy Yatsenyuk. French and German leaders called on Kyiv to move on economic reforms. Russian President Putin 26 Dec signed new Russian military doctrine saying that country faces threats from foreign nations installing hostile govts in neighbouring countries. Russia resumed supplies of gas to Ukraine, suspended in June.

NATO commander Gen Breedlove said alliance saw Russian military equipment entering Ukraine early Nov; Moscow denied claims. NATO chief Stoltenberg urged Russia to pull back forces. U.S. called meeting of UNSC 12 Nov, UN Asst SG warned of possible return to full-scale fighting. Ukrainian defence minister said govt forces redeploying in preparation for possible offensive by separatists. Separatists in eastern Ukraine held elections for head of state and legislature 2 Nov in self-proclaimed people’s republics in Donetsk and Luhansk, reported high turnout, victories for current leaders; Kyiv and West said polls illegitimate. Russia said it respected outcome. Western leaders rebuked Russian intervention in Ukraine at G20 summit in Australia mid-Nov. Ukrainian PM Yatsenyuk 20 Nov accused Russia of “deliberately seeking to provoke a large-scale war”. Fighting continues at Donetsk airport and near Luhansk city; heavy artillery fire reported on outskirts of Donetsk city early Nov. Large areas of the city temporarily without water after damage to infrastructure. President Poroshenko signed decree mid-Nov withdrawing all govt service funding to rebel-held territory. UN 18 Nov reported almost 1,000 people killed in Ukraine conflict since 5 Sept ceasefire, with both sides violating truce; real figure probably higher. UN describe breakdown of law and order in rebel-held areas, allegations of abuses by rebel and govt forces. Russia late Nov admitted international sanctions hurting its economy, exacerbating downturn.

Parliamentary elections held 26 Oct: pro-EU parties won significant majority. President Poroshenko’s bloc ended slightly behind PM Yatsenyuk’s bloc, third reformist group also did well. Poroshenko’s relatively poor showing seen as rebuke for failure to push ahead with reforms, connect with country. Govt mid-Oct passed initial package of anti-corruption laws, Lustration Law. Constant ceasefire violations in east since Sept ceasefire agreement: continued shelling, skirmishes around Donetsk airport, artillery strikes on outskirts of Donetsk city; armed clashes reported in parts of Donetsk and Luhansk. Ukraine, Russia and EU 30 Oct signed deal on resumption of Russian natural gas shipments to Ukraine, EU acted as guarantor for Kiev.

President Poroshenko 5 Sept agreed to ceasefire with pro-Russian rebels in east following heavy losses of personnel and equipment to regular Russian forces in late Aug. Ukrainian military commanders admitted privately troops unable to withstand direct attack by Russian forces. Ukrainian parliament 16 Sept passed law allowing degree of self-govt for breakaway regions, separatists claimed ceasefire and subsequent agreements amounted to de facto recognition of independence; moves caused concern among Ukrainian, international officials who fear agreement tantamount to creation of new frozen conflict. International observers noted agreement left separatists in control of several hundred kms of Ukrainian-Russian border. Worst post-ceasefire violence around Donetsk airport began 29 Sept, at least 12 killed. Dutch investigators 9 Sept released preliminary report on MH17 plane crash, concluded plane brought down by “high-energy objects". Parliament 16 Sept ratified Association Agreement with EU and 17 Sept passed lustration law, awaiting presidential signature.

Major escalation in fighting between govt forces and pro-Russian rebels as army attempted to encircle Donetsk and Luhansk, Russia stepped up support for rebels including reportedly deploying Russian troops inside Ukraine; NATO late month estimated over 1,000 Russian troops in Ukraine, 20,000 near border. UN 29 Aug estimated 2,593 killed since April, more than half in past month alone. Rebel setbacks accompanied by 14 Aug resignation of original leadership: Donetsk military leader Igor Girkin-Strelkov, Donetsk “prime minister” Alexander Borodai resigned; Luhansk rebel chief Valery Bolotov said temporarily relinquishing command. Russia 22 Aug sent humanitarian aid convoy into Ukraine without govt’s permission after complaining of delays during days of inspections on border. NATO SG Rasmussen 22 Aug said Russian troops directly attacked Ukrainian forces with “artillery support” both across border and from within Ukraine; Ukrainian govt 25 Aug accused Russian column of armored vehicles of crossing border, engaging in fighting. Russian, Ukrainian presidents 26 Aug held inconclusive talks in Minsk. Russian President Putin 29 Aug publicly congratulated rebel forces on latest offensive. Ukraine President Poroshenko 25 Aug dissolved parliament, called early elections for 28 Oct.