U.S. rejected Russian demands for legal guarantees prohibiting NATO expansion, while tensions over Russian military build-up continued ahead of planned military exercises in Feb. After Moscow 15 Dec proposed to U.S. draft agreement on security guarantees that included provision not to expand NATO eastward, U.S. 26 Jan provided written response rejecting demand after coordinating with Ukraine and European allies; U.S. urged Russia to dismantle its military build-up near Ukraine and continue diplomatic path; rejection followed 21 Jan meeting between U.S. Sec State Blinken and Russian FM Sergey Lavrov that ended without breakthrough (see Russia-U.S.). Meanwhile, Russia continued military build-up. Significant number of Russian personnel and equipment, including Iskander short-range ballistic missiles, during month arrived in Belarus ahead of “Allied Resolve” joint military exercises that will last until 20 Feb; Blinken 19 Jan said Russia may attack Ukraine at “very short notice”, while President Zelenskyy same day said risks of invasion have not increased. Zelenskyy 20 Jan suggested, however, Russia may attempt to occupy Kharkiv city under pretext of protection of Russian-speaking population. Amid tensions, Ukraine has been receiving significant military assistance from U.S., UK and other European countries. Situation in Donbas conflict zone remained relatively calm as shelling decreased compared to Dec; no civilian casualties from live-fire reported while govt sources reported one serviceman killed by live fire, two killed by explosive device detonations, seven injured in Jan; two Russian-backed armed group members were killed during month, one from live fire, and one fighter was injured. Despite tensions, Kyiv continued seeking new Normandy summit with leaders of four countries (Germany, France, Russia, Ukraine). Political advisers of leaders 26 Jan met in French capital Paris; Dmitry Kozak, deputy chief of staff of the Presidential Executive Office, said sides agreed that July 2020 ceasefire agreement in Donbas should be adhered to unconditionally; advisers agreed to meet in German capital Berlin in two weeks to discuss discrepancies over political part of the Minsk agreements. Govt 25 Jan decided to withdraw from parliament its transition policy law that defined Russia as aggressor state and described Kyiv’s vision of how to reintegrate territories seized by Russia’s proxies.

Amid growing concerns over potential Russian offensive, hostilities continued in Donbas conflict zone despite restoration of July 2020 ceasefire. Fighting and shelling continued along Donbas contact line. Ukrainian military said three of its servicemen were killed in combat during month, while Russian-backed forces reported four fighters killed. Explosion in govt-controlled Krasnohorivka town located at contact line in Donetsk region 1 Dec injured civilian. Civilian 23 Dec sustained shrapnel injuries in non-govt-controlled Oleksandrivka locality near Donetsk. Ukraine and Russia 22 Dec negotiated restoration of July 2020 ceasefire agreement; fighting subsequently persisted, while sides did not agree on opening of civilian crossings. Head of Office of Ukraine’s President Andriy Yermak 21 Dec said Kyiv had shared ten-step plan with Normandy Four countries and U.S. to unblock peace process; Russian media outlet Kommersant 24 Dec published plan, which provided for ceasefire, opening of checkpoints, prisoners’ swap, negotiation of draft laws on special status, amnesty, decentralisation and setting special economic zone. According to 17 Dec U.S. media reports citing U.S. intelligence officials, Russia continued to amass troops near Ukraine. Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov 22 Dec said over 120,000 Russian troops are within 200km of Ukrainian border. Russian foreign ministry 17 Dec published proposals to legally guarantee against NATO’s eastward expansion, including ruling out Ukraine’s membership; proposals suggest banning any NATO military deployments on territory of states that were not NATO members in May 1997. Russian President Putin 21 Dec said Russia’s proposals are no ultimatum, but stressed that Russia has nowhere to retreat over Ukraine; while talking about possible invasion, Putin said Moscow’s actions will depend “on unconditional guarantees for Russia’s security”. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov 31 Dec warned West over “aggressive line” in Ukraine crisis, said Moscow may be forced to “eliminate unacceptable threats to our security” (see Russia -U.S.). Russia 25 Dec announced more than 10,000 troops finished month-long drills near Ukraine. President Zelensky 21 Dec said govt seeks clear timeline in 2022 for eventual NATO membership, describing years of waiting as “unacceptable”. State Investigation Bureau 20 Dec charged former President Petro Poroshenko with state treason and financing of terrorism.

Tensions ran high as Russian military build-up along Ukrainian border sparked concerns of potential invasion and renewed armed conflict in east. Media 12 Nov reported that U.S. had warned EU countries that Moscow was preparing for possible invasion of Ukraine; head of Ukraine’s defence intelligence agency Kyrylo Budanov 21 Nov warned that Moscow was preparing attack “by the end of January or beginning of February”, while Ukrainian Ambassador in Germany Andriy Melnyk 17 Nov said Russia had amassed 146,000 troops near border, in Crimea and in Donbas. Russia’s deputy UN Ambassador Dmitriy Polianskyi 11 Nov said Moscow never planned invasion and will not unless provoked by Ukraine. Meanwhile President Zelenskyy 26 Nov claimed intelligence showed group of Russians and Ukrainians planning coup in Ukraine on 1-2 Dec. Meanwhile in Donbas conflict zone, ceasefire violations reached 4,403 explosions between 1-26 Nov 2021 compared with 3,750 in July 2020 according to data from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). Ukrainian army reported six servicemen killed and 13 injured during month; Russia-backed armed groups reported six fighters killed and seven injured; shelling injured civilian in Luhansk region. On diplomatic front, Russia 11 Nov refused to hold ministerial meeting of Normandy Four (Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany) after France and Germany rejected Moscow’s text of joint conclusions it sent on 29 Oct; Russia called armed conflict “internal issue” of Ukraine, urging Kyiv to negotiate “with Donetsk and Luhansk”, halt the language and indigenous people laws, and withdraw draft law outlining the return and reintegration of non-govt controlled territories in Donbas. Paris and Berlin 4 Nov objected to Russian interpretation, citing omission of unfettered access of OSCE in Donbas, and urged Moscow to discuss stopping violence in Donbas and implementation of Paris Summit Conclusions. Turkish President Erdoğan 29 Nov expressed readiness to mediate tensions between Kyiv and Moscow, stressing his country maintains good relations with both sides. Govt and U.S. 10 Nov signed new Charter on Strategic Partnership that expands defence and security cooperation, supports Ukraine’s right to decide its own future “including with respect to Ukraine’s aspirations to join NATO”.

Hostilities continued in Donbas conflict zone, while momentum gathered for possible Normandy Four meeting. Russian-backed armed groups suffered 12 combat fatalities during month according to Ukrainian researchers. Ukrainian govt forces recorded two combat deaths 26, 27 Oct. In notable development, Kyiv 26 Oct used for first time Turkish Bayraktar drone, which reportedly destroyed howitzer. Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) monitors corroborated two civilian casualties following heavy weapons use 21 Oct, and one from small arms use 9 Oct, all near separatist-held Donetsk. De facto authorities of so-called Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) 13 Oct announced that Stanytsya Luhanska, sole checkpoint through which civilian residents can enter govt-held territory, would be closed 15 Oct-1 Nov to control COVID-19 spread. Ukrainian authorities same day detained LPR member allegedly conducting reconnaissance, prompting Moscow to call for consular access given detainee’s Russian citizenship; incident led separatist armed group 17 Oct to temporarily block OSCE Special Monitoring Mission from accessing patrol base, demanding arrestee’s release. Following online meeting between German Chancellor Merkel, French President Macron and President Zelenskyy 11 Oct, Paris next day announced that FMs of Normandy Four (Ukraine, France, Germany, Russia) would meet in coming weeks; Moscow 13 Oct confirmed that plans were under way, although Russian FM Sergei Lavrov 14 Oct reiterated meetings not desirable until sides had fulfilled Dec 2019 pledges. EU and U.S. 9 Oct jointly criticised “unexplained and unjustifiable delays” in selecting head of Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office after selection committee failed to achieve quorum at planned proceedings. Annual Ukraine-EU summit on 12 Oct yielded declaration of willingness to “explore possibilities” to further support country including through military education. U.S. military aid package worth $250 mn arrived in three instalments, on 10, 18 and 23 Oct; U.S. Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin 19 Oct visited capital Kyiv, discussed implementation of U.S.-Ukraine Strategic Defence Framework. Investigative project “Pandora papers” published 3 Oct revealed Zelenskyy and partners had set up network of offshore companies in 2012. Authorities 8 Oct announced new possible treason charges against opposition deputy Viktor Medvedchuk.

Low-level violence continued in Donbas conflict zone, while parliament passed controversial “anti-oligarch” legislation. In Donbas conflict zone, combat killed five Ukrainian govt troops, per military figures, while Ukrainian researchers reported at least five combat deaths among Russian-backed forces during month; Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe corroborated four civilian injuries, all from shelling and all in separatist-held areas; town head in govt-controlled Shchastya reportedly injured in aftermath of 16 Sept mortar attack. Meanwhile, unknown assailant 22 Sept attacked car carrying Serhiy Shefir, aide and long-time business associate of President Zelenskyy, in capital Kyiv, leaving driver injured; Zelenskyy blamed attack on administration’s efforts to reduce public influence of oligarchs. Parliament next day passed Zelenskyy’s law aimed at preventing designated oligarchs from sponsoring political parties or buying privatised assets; some opposition members claimed move aimed at hobbling political rivals such as ex-President Poroshenko. Approximately 150,000 Russian passport holders 17-19 Sept voted in Russian parliamentary elections held in Donbas for first time; Ukraine’s Security and Defenсe Council 17 Sep vowed sanctions against “all involved”. EU 10 Sept prolonged for six months sanctions against 177 individuals and 48 entities “responsible for undermining or threatening the territorial integrity, sovereignty, and independence of Ukraine”. Ambassadors to Ukraine from G7 states 23 Sept issued joint statement noting “concern” and “disappointment” at delays in judicial reform and inadequate efforts to ensure transparent selection of new Constitutional Court judges. At address to UN General Assembly, Zelenskyy 23 Sept criticised UN for failure to appear at Aug 2021 Crimea Platform meeting and urged UN revival through stronger action against countries violating international law.

Low-level clashes continued in Donbas conflict zone and President Zelenskyy hosted international conference to draw attention to Russian-annexed Crimea. Deadly violence in Donbas conflict zone continued, leaving nine govt soldiers killed during month, including from anti-tank rocket attacks on 7, 10 Aug and sniper fire on 16, 19 Aug, according to Ukrainian military press corps. Ukrainian researchers reported combat 1 Aug killed at least one Russian-backed fighter, and Russian-backed armed groups claimed over ten fighters killed throughout month. Unknown assailants 11 Aug killed one civilian by live fire, and 5, 9 Aug injured at least two others, according to Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe. On diplomatic front, German Chancellor Merkel 22 Aug visited President Zelenskyy in capital Kyiv, pledging support should Russia abuse its growing energy dominance or further undercut Ukraine’s sovereignty, but gave no public indication of what actions Germany might take. Kyiv 23 Aug launched Crimea Platform conference, aimed at drawing international attention to Russian annexation, with presence of 42 foreign envoys; Russian FM Sergey Lavrov 25 Aug called initiative “a futile, Russophobic display”. Trilateral Contact Group on Donbas peace process 26 Aug met following hiatus of nearly one month. Security and Defense Council 20 Aug voted to impose sanctions against judges, civil servants and security personnel in Russian-occupied Crimea, as well as persons associated with media outlets deemed harmful to country’s national security, resulting in blocking of anti-govt news site Strana.ua. U.S. State Dept 20 Aug announced new sanctions connected to Nord Stream II pipeline against one Russian vessel and its Russian insurers; move does not affect Washington’s May 2021 decision to waive sanctions on company leading pipeline’s construction and its head.

Deadly fighting intensified in Donbas conflict zone, while Kyiv expressed frustration over U.S. and German handling of Nord Stream II gas pipeline. In Donbas conflict zone, fighting escalated. Notably, Ukrainian side reported shelling of its command posts in Donetsk and Luhansk regions with heavy weapons, killing three and injuring 11 servicemen on 13 and 26 July; armed groups reported seven fighters killed by Ukrainian army shelling on 28 and 30 July. Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe special representative 22 July noted sustained increase in use of heavy weapons. Death toll and number of casualties also rose compared to previous months: Ukrainian govt forces suffered eight combat deaths and 32 injuries throughout July, per official sources; Russian-backed forces lost ten fighters and 14 suffered injuries, per reports from de facto officials; two civilians received shrapnel injuries per de facto and Ukrainian reports. Meanwhile, U.S.-German talks on Nord Stream II pipeline provoked controversy among Ukrainian officials as U.S. officials formally ended opposition to new pipeline, which is nearly completed, and is due to bypass existing Ukrainian pipeline and reduce associated Ukrainian revenues from transit of Russian gas. U.S. and Germany 20 July issued joint statement in which Berlin committed “to utilize all available leverage to facilitate an extension of up to ten years to Ukraine’s gas transit agreement with Russia, including appointing a special envoy to support these negotiations”; Berlin also pledged “to establish and administer” over $1bn Green Fund for Ukraine to support Kyiv’s transition away from fossil fuels. In response, FM Dmytro Kuleba next day released joint statement with Polish counterpart calling unnamed “proposals” to tackle potential security fallout from pipeline insufficient; in open letter, Parliament Speaker Dmitry Razumkov 22 July urged U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to maintain all pertinent sanctions as well as possibly levying new ones to prevent “completion and commissioning” of pipeline. Washington 21 July announced that first meeting between Presidents Biden and Zelenskyy would take place 30 August, when Zelenskyy is expected to press for larger U.S. role in Donbas peace process. Arsen Avakov, Ukraine’s longest-ever serving interior minister, 14 July resigned following years of corruption allegations. President Zelenskyy 27 July dismissed Commander of Ukrainian Armed Forces Ruslan Khomchak.

Deadly combat continued in Donbas as President Zelenskyy reinvigorated bid for NATO membership and U.S. reaffirmed support for Minsk diplomatic process. In Donbas conflict zone, live fire 19 and 27 June injured civilian while killing two Ukrainian servicemen and injuring six during month, according to official and media reports. At least one Russia-backed fighter was killed by live fire, while sides traded accusations over deaths of additional nine fighters, as well as over the cause of five injuries. In joint communiqué following 14 June NATO summit, member states reiterated their 2008 pledge to issue Georgia and Ukraine Membership Action Plans, but provided no timeline; President Zelenskyy 18 June told Western news outlets that he wanted “yes or no” on NATO membership, and “clear dates”. Following 16 June Geneva summit with Russia’s President Putin, U.S. President Joe Biden said he and his counterpart “agreed to pursue diplomacy related to the Minsk agreement”; Putin separately stated that Biden had apparently deemed agreements “the basis for conflict regulation”, noting that this contradicted Kyiv’s recent statements about need for alternate approach. U.S. Deputy Sec State Victoria Nuland reiterated U.S. support for Minsk agreements in 17 June interview, saying U.S. would examine possibilities for greater involvement in peace process following consultations with Kyiv. Ukraine’s Security and Defence Council 18 June announced that govt was imposing sanctions on businessman Dmytro Firtash in connection with his titanium business, which officials say supplies raw materials used by Russian military. Russia’s defence ministry 23 June announced that maritime patrol had fired warning shots at British military vessel 19km from Crimean Peninsula in Black Sea, which UK denied; Ukrainian FM Dmytro Kuleba called incident “clear proof” that Russia’s “occupation and militarization of Crimea pose a lasting threat to Ukraine and allies”. U.S. and Ukraine-led Sea Breeze naval exercise 28 June began in Black Sea.

Donbas ceasefire continued to falter and peace process remained stalled, while fears of large-scale Russian invasion subsided. Fighting continued throughout month in Donbas conflict zone: shelling killed one civilian, live fire left one injured and mines injured three more. Ukrainian and Russian-backed forces suffered four and 12 fatalities, respectively. Ukraine’s foreign ministry 13 May said “the threat of military provocations remains unchanged”. After sides failed to agree on recommitment to terms of July 2020 ceasefire in late April when Russian envoys to Minsk Trilateral Contact Group (TCG) demanded that Kremlin proxies in so-called People’s Republics be included in agreement, sides revisited prospect of recommitting to ceasefire at 19-22 May TCG meeting but made no progress. At same meeting, sides struck preliminary agreement to greenlight opening of new civilian front-line checkpoints in Luhansk oblast through providing security guarantees for staff and civilians; it however remains unclear whether so-called republics will assent to checkpoints’ opening absent direct negotiations with Kyiv. Meanwhile, military tensions with Russia continued to slowly decline following Moscow’s late April announcement that it would withdraw some of its troops stationed near Ukraine’s borders. In his second annual presidential press conference, President Zelenskyy 20 May expressed hopes for “direct talks with the President of the Russian Federation” as well as “the inclusion of the US in this discussion”; while he did not specify format for these talks, he rebuffed idea that peace would be impossible until current Russian regime collapses. Zelenskyy 20 May called U.S. decision previous day to waive some sanctions related to Nordstream 2 pipeline “a serious political victory” for Moscow; Ukraine’s parliament 21 May voted in landslide for resolution calling on U.S. congress to override decision and use all legal means to “completely and irreversibly stop” pipeline’s construction. Kremlin 20 May confirmed that discussions on Zelenskyy-Putin meeting were in motion. Following Belarusian authorities’ forceful diversion of passenger flight on 23 May, Kyiv 26 May announced cessation of air travel with its neighbour (see Belarus).

Fighting continued in east while largest Russian military build-up at border since Moscow’s 2014 invasion brought renewed international attention. In Donbas conflict zone, fighting killed 15 Ukrainian govt troops and five Russian-backed fighters throughout month, per official and de facto reports. Moreover, explosion 2 April killed five-year-old child 14km from contact line, while three other civilians were killed and six injured during month. Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe indicated shelling frequency doubled in April compared to previous month while Ukraine’s military casualties increased fivefold compared to April 2020. Following late March announcement by Ukrainian military commander Ruslan Khomchak that Russia was building up forces on borders, U.S. President Biden 2 April called President Zelenskyy and pledged support for country’s territorial integrity. Zelenskyy 6 April spoke to NATO Sec Gen Jens Stoltenberg, requesting Membership Action Plan and asserting “NATO is the only way to end the war in Donbas”. French President Macron, German Chancellor Merkel and Zelenskyy 16 April discussed de-escalation measures. Advisers to Normandy Four (Russia, Ukraine, Germany, France) heads of state 19 April pledged efforts to rescue July 2020 ceasefire through strengthening bilateral coordination and verification measures; Moscow same day rejected joint statement proposed by France and Germany as “unspecific and declarative”; Kyiv proposed stricter liability for sniper fire on grounds that Russian shooters had driven rise in military casualties. Zelenskyy 20 April suggested meeting in Donbas; Putin counter-offered meeting in Moscow, provided Kyiv negotiated directly with Moscow-backed forces in Donbas first. Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu 22 April said troops were returning to permanent bases. Moscow mid-month announced closure of sections of Black Sea to foreign naval ships and state vessels until 31 Oct. Trilateral Contact Group for Donbas peace process met 28 April, voiced readiness to renew ceasefire but failed to agree on joint plan.