Conflict escalated further in east as Donbas ceasefire showed cracks, with over 20 killed amid deadlocked peace talks. In Donbas conflict zone, fighting during month killed up to 11 Russia-backed fighters and one civilian, according to data from de facto heads and social media, and at least nine Ukrainian govt servicemen, per official reports; latter included four killed by sniper fire 26 March, prompting Ukraine’s parliament 30 March to adopt resolution calling for increased Western pressure on Russia. During videoconference same day with French and German heads of state, Russian President Putin expressed “concern at the military escalation provoked by Ukraine”. Earlier in month, press service of so-called Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) 3 March granted troops permission to launch “preventative fire”, undermining July 2020 ceasefire provisions; Head of Ukrainian Trilateral Contact Group (TCG) delegation Leonid Kravchuk same day said that Russian-backed forces were escalating violence in response to Kyiv’s sanctions in Feb on Ukrainian pro-Russian opposition politicians and U.S. and EU “increased pressure” on Moscow. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief 30 March accused Russia of building up military forces near Ukraine’s borders. President Zelenskyy’s Chief of Staff Andryi Yermak 9 March announced that French and German officials had helped produce new roadmap for peaceful reintegration of breakaway parts of Donbas; Dmitry Kozak, Russian President Putin’s deputy chief of staff, 16 March called new peace plan “a myth”, reflecting Feb recommendations made by Germany and France which Russia had largely rejected. Ukraine’s Security and Defence Council 11 March approved draft strategy “for the deoccupation and reintegration” of Crimean Peninsula; Russian MFA 15 March said “all of Kyiv’s efforts to return Crimea are illegitimate” and constitute “direct encroachment on [Russia’s] territorial integrity”. Gathering in support of imprisoned activist Serhiy Sternenko 30 March ended in damage to façade of Presidential Administration; interior minister attributed damage to possible plot by ex-President Poroshenko while supporters of Sternenko and Poroshenko blamed interior ministry.

Casualties in Donbas conflict zone surged while govt sanctioned several Kremlin-friendly public figures. July ceasefire in Donbas – longest-lasting ceasefire in east to date – faced growing strains amid significant uptick in casualties: Ukrainian army during Feb suffered up to a dozen combat-related deaths while Russian-backed forces lost at least eight fighters, per social media reports. Landmines 14 Feb killed three Ukrainian servicemen. In first civilian casualties from live fire since July, shelling 23 Feb killed one civilian and 3, 22 Feb injured two, according to Ukrainian and separatist media reports. Ukrainian commander 20 Feb reported extensive use of heavy weapons in Donbas by so-called Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) forces; DPR-friendly sources, however, suggested Ukrainian forces fired artillery first. Other incidents contributed to deteriorating security in Donbas: Ukrainian security personnel 9 Feb fatally shot man attempting to cross front-line checkpoint after he ignored orders to stop car; car bombing 15 Feb injured DPR battalion commander and his daughter, for which de facto authorities blamed Ukrainian security services. Ukraine’s chief envoy to Minsk Trilateral Contact Group Leonid Kravchuk 8 Feb said armed groups’ aggression warranted return fire. President Zelenskyy 11 Feb brought G7 ambassadors to visit military positions at frontline and spoke of July ceasefire’s success. In capital Kyiv, hundreds 23 Feb protested Odesa сourt’s decision to sentence activist Serhiy Sternenko to seven years in prison for alleged kidnapping, leaving 27 law enforcement officers injured and 24 people arrested. Meanwhile, National Security and Defense Council 19 Feb announced sanctions on Kremlin-friendly politician Viktor Medvedchuk and his wife; Kremlin press secretary 20 Feb responded that such action fuels concern that Kyiv “will consider it possible to solve the situation in [Donbas] by military means”. Kyiv 2 Feb sanctioned Medvedchuk associate Taras Kozak, accusing him of involvement in Russia-linked coal smuggling scheme and stripping licenses from three television channels he owns. U.S. Sec of State Antony Blinken and Ukrainian FM Dmytro Kuleba 2 Feb held first call during which Blinken pledged “robust U.S. economic and military assistance”; Ukrainian MFA same day said Blinken promised lethal weaponry.

Ceasefire in Donbas area held tenuously, while diplomatic engagement to address conflict situation in east continued. In Donbas conflict zone, combat deaths rose compared to previous month: casualties and shelling were concentrated east of Mariupol (southern Donetsk oblast), north west of Donetsk city and near Popasna-Zolote (Luhansk oblast). Sniper fire 11 Jan andshelling 21 Jan killed two Ukrainian soldiers; four were injured in combat on 14, 15, 25, 26 Jan. Russia-backed separatists reported four combat-related deaths on 2, 14, 21 and 23 Jan.  One civilian 3 Jan sustained shrapnel injury while trying to dismantle explosive in Blahodatne in govt-controlled Donetsk region. On diplomatic front, advisers of Normandy Four (France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia) 12 Jan attended Berlin meeting, which Kyiv described as “complicated but constructive”, and sides agreed to work “on new approaches to conflict road map” in Trilateral Conflict Group (TCG). “Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics” 19 Jan invited their own “civil representatives” to join TCG political subgroup meeting, mirroring Kyiv’s move in June 2020 and prompting Kyiv’s subsequent complaints. At Berlin meeting, sides failed to agree on mechanisms to safeguard fragile ceasefire; sides agreed to restore gas supplies to govt-controlled front-line town of Maryinka for first time since July 2014 but separatists subsequently withdrew safety guarantees, accusing Kyiv of shelling them and saying front-line infrastructure repairs would depend on Kyiv’s willingness to negotiate with them directly. Meanwhile, two out of seven civilian cross-line checkpoints were operational during month: one in Donetsk and one in Luhansk. De facto republics kept their corresponding sides of two new checkpoints near Luhansk region’s towns of Zolote and Shchasti closed; sides still discussing future openings. Russia Today chief editor Margarita Simonyan 28 Jan gave speech in Donetsk calling for “Mother Russia to take Donbas home” and make it part of Russian federation. 

July ceasefire wore thin following escalation of fighting along line of contact in Donbas conflict zone. Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) recorded over 200 ceasefire violations in Donetsk oblast on three separate days – 11, 19 and 29 Dec – following months in which recorded daily ceasefire violations had ranged from single digits to just below 100. Areas around Donetsk Filtration Station in Avdiivka, Zolote and Popasna suffered shelling throughout month. Sniper fire and shelling injured seven Ukrainian soldiers; Ukrainian forces sustained one non-live-fire injury. Armed groups 17 Dec captured Ukrainian reconnaissance commander in Luhansk region; body of another Ukrainian soldier was passed to armed forces 17 Dec. Russian-backed forces said shelling killed four of its fighters 18 Dec and one 22 Dec. One civilian was injured 20 Dec after anti-tank missile hit his vehicle; govt forces said missile was launched from area of enemy control. Prisoner swap negotiations remained stalled. Chief OSCE representative to Minsk Trilateral Contact Group, Ambassador Heidi Grau, 16 Dec urged sides to finalise identification of new demining areas. Kyiv 16 Dec opened its second administrative centre for civilians at crossing in Novotroitske, south of Donetsk city, and reopened all entry-exit checkpoints; however, corresponding checkpoints in de facto republics remained closed due to COVID-19 restrictions. Representatives of so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics 2 Dec participated in informal UN Security Council meeting, proposing referendum on status of territories under their de facto control. President Zelenskyy 16 Dec stated that U.S. President-elect Joe Biden’s understanding of Russia-Ukraine dynamics would “add to resolving Donbas war”. President Putin 17 Dec blamed Kyiv for deepening stalemate in Donbas, warning Ukrainian govt against attempts to unilaterally revise Minsk agreements and promising greater infrastructure and economic support for so-called republics. International Criminal Court Chief Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda 11 Dec announced that following preliminary examination of “a broad range of conduct constituting war crimes and crimes against humanity […] statutory criteria for opening investigations into the situation in Ukraine has been met.”

Kyiv proposed new peace plan to Trilateral Contact Group (TCG), while July ceasefire largely held in Donbas conflict zone. Ukrainian TCG representatives 5 Nov proposed new “Joint Steps plan” to demilitarise conflict zone in early 2021, allow Kyiv to regain control of eastern border and subsequently hold local elections on 31 March; newly-integrated areas would be offered special economic zone status for 30 years. Russian TCG representative Gryzlov 11 Nov called plan “another attempt to deceive people”, while Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (D/LPR) de facto authorities 20 Nov rebuffed it as “awkward attempt to rewrite Minsk agreements”, given that Minsk agreement states elections must precede Kyiv regaining control. Separately, TCG representatives 4 Nov agreed on four new disengagement areas in Donbas conflict zone: near Hryhorivka in Donetsk region, as well as Slovyanoserbsk, Petrivka and Nyzhnoteple villages in Luhansk region. In Donbas conflict zone, July ceasefire largely held except for small flare-ups with military casualties on both sides; sniper fire 24 Nov killed one govt soldier in Donetsk region according to Ukrainian officials, while DPR armed groups lost at least two fighters on 6 Nov. Both sides sustained non-live-fire casualties throughout month, including five Ukrainian soldiers and five Russian-backed fighters; remnant explosives injured four civilians 10, 12 Nov. Govt 10 Nov reopened all Donbas checkpoints and introduced two new crossings for civilians across front line in Luhansk region; however, many corresponding crossings remained closed, preventing civilians from using them. Political crisis continued over Constitutional Court’s Oct decision to overturn key provisions in anti-corruption legislation; President Zelenskyy 1 Nov said forces behind decision were “a coalition of Russian proxies and some prominent Ukrainian oligarchs”; parliament 18 Nov established working group aimed at resolving crisis by 1 Dec. Authorities 25 Nov reported record daily number of 15,331 new COVID-19 cases after govt 13 Nov introduced weekend quarantine. De-facto republics reported modest rise in cases; mortality rate higher in LPR (about 8%) and DPR (about 10%) compared to govt controlled areas (1.7%).

Local elections took place across country, excluding some communities and separatist-held areas in east, while July ceasefire in Donbas largely held. First round of local elections 25 Oct organised nationwide; in setback for President Zelenskyy, incumbent mayors in major cities held off challenges from his Sluha Narodu party. Separatist-held areas in east excluded from vote as per parliament’s July decree, many residents near front line also excluded for security reasons. Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) observers praised vote as well organised but raised concerns many residents near front line in East could note vote despite absence of direct hostilities in years. In conflict zone, July ceasefire largely held although two govt servicemen were killed and two injured, according to Ukrainian officials; both sides sustained non-live-fire casualties, including at least one Ukrainian soldier injured, according to military authorities, and 11 Russian-backed fighters killed, according to social media reports. Landmines injured one man 4 Oct, two boys 6 Oct, and three male civilians 9 Oct. OSCE Special Monitoring Mission Chief Monitor Yaşar Halit Çevik 8 Oct noted that de facto authorities continued to hamper movements of ceasefire monitors in non-govt-controlled areas. In Luhansk region, govt 12 Oct announced closure of civilian crossing Stanytsia Luhanska until 30 Oct due to quarantine; hundreds of civilians trapped at closed checkpoints; armed forces 28 Oct extended closure to 15 Nov. Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (D/LPR) de facto authorities reported significant rise in COVID-19 cases, while de facto DPR Health Minister Aleksandr Opryshenko 15 Oct admitted true rate of infection higher than official one and testing capacity lacking; de facto DPR head Denis Pushilin 16 Oct cancelled public sporting events. In blow to ongoing anti-corruption reforms, Constitutional Court 27 Oct abolished criminal liability for inaccurate asset declaration by govt officials, prompting thousands 30 Oct to rally in capital Kyiv, and Zelenskyy to call for Constitutional Court’s judges to be fired. EU-Ukraine Summit memorandum 5 Oct noted “Ukraine’s constructive approach in the Normandy Format and the Trilateral Contact Group”, calling on Russia to ensure OSCE ceasefire monitors can access parts of non govt-controlled areas near Russian border.

Discord among Trilateral Contact Group (TCG) parties resurfaced over local election in Donbas, while July ceasefire held in Donbas conflict zone. Ahead of nationwide elections scheduled for 25 Oct, disagreement persisted between Ukraine, Russia and Russian-backed proxies in Donbas over Ukrainian parliament’s July decree that conditioned local elections in Donbas on region’s “deoccupation, demilitarisation and reintegration”; disagreement blocked discussions at 16 Sept TCG meeting on prisoner swap and disengagement along contact line; Russian TCG representative Boris Gryzlov 16 Sept said decree contradicts Minsk agreements, while Donbas proxies urged Kyiv to amend the decree. Reintegration minister 18 Sept called for parliament to amend decree, citing its impact on Minsk negotiations. President Zelenskyy 30 Sept dismissed first deputy head of Ukrainian delegation to TCG and former PM Vitold Fokin after Fokin 29 Sept stated that he “can see no evidence of war between Ukraine and Russia in Donbas”. In Donbas, 27 July ceasefire held but fighting 6 Sept killed one govt serviceman at checkpoint in Luhansk region, and both sides continued to sustain non-combat casualties mainly from explosives, including three Ukrainian soldiers and two Russian-backed fighters killed 1-23 Sept, according to pro-Ukrainian non-govt source. Advisers of Normandy Four (France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia) leaders 11 Sept met in Berlin, reached agreement to allow Red Cross to visit prisoners in custody of Russian proxies. NATO and govt 20 Sept began four-day joint command and staff military exercises, coinciding with Russian “Caucasus 2020” military drills. Ukraine 30 Sept reported record daily number of 4,027 new COVID-19 cases, prompting Kyiv to restrict entry to all foreigners until 28 Sept; de facto republics reported modest rise in cases. G7 member states 16 Sept urged Ukrainian authorities to support anti-corruption agencies, including National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine, after Constitutional Court 16 Sept ruled that bureau was unlawfully established by presidential decree; vice chair of delegation to EU-Ukraine Parliamentary Association Committee 17 Sept stated govt “is jeopardizing visa-free with EU and further tranche of €1.5bn assistance”.

Following late July ceasefire deal between Minsk accord parties, casualties decreased in Donbas conflict zone; Donetsk de facto leadership threatened new escalation. July ceasefire in Donbas conflict zone largely held throughout month: Ukrainian military confirmed no casualties or injuries in combat. Both sides continued to sustain non-combat casualties, however, particularly from landmines, including one Ukrainian serviceman killed 13 Aug, one Russian-backed fighter killed 15 Aug and two Russian-backed fighters killed 28 Aug. Sides accused each other of violating ceasefire rules with small arms, drones and fortification of positions. In move that could escalate conflict, Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) head Denis Pushilin 28 Aug threatened to order “destruction of trenches and shelters of the Ukrainian Armed Forces fortified or created after 22 July” if these were not removed by 3 Sept.  Trilateral Contact Group (TCG) members held heated discussions throughout month on meaning of “special status” for territories currently under control of separatists; Ukrainian delegation head Leonid Kravchuk 4 Aug suggested replacing “special status” with “special system of administration”; in response, DPR de facto FM Natalia Nikonorova warned of Ukrainian attempts to “nullify the [Minsk] agreements”. Deputy head of presidential administration Andryi Yermak 7 Aug announced imminent exchange of 200 prisoners. Luhansk People’s Republic TCG representative Olga Kobtseva 20 Aug said, however, no progress made on swap due to Kyiv govt legislation passed in July stating that no elections would be held in Donetsk and Luhansk until govt takes control of state border, which Kobtseva said would negate “the whole point of the Minsk agreements”. Ukrainian govt said sides 20 Aug agreed to 20 new demining zones and four disengagement zones. Following Ukraine’s extradition request of Wagner military battalion members arrested in Minsk in July, Belarus authorities 14 Aug announced fighters had been handed over to Russia. As of 1 Sept, DPR de facto authorities reported steady rise of total COVID-19 cases to 2,560 while Luhansk People’s Republic registered total 692 cases.

Amid ongoing deadly clashes at frontline in East, parties to Minsk accords late July agreed to re-commit to ceasefire. Parties 23 July reached ceasefire agreement on situation in Eastern Ukraine, which President Zelenskyy described as “breakthrough”; agreement establishes mechanism to address reported violations, bans heavy weaponry in civilian areas, and contains unusually explicit prohibitions on offensive and reconnaissance activity; sides pledged also to open civilian crossings at Zolote and Shchastya by 1 Nov. Amid Zelenskyy’s support for agreement, pro-military activists called provisions unconstitutional; Russian envoy to Minsk negotiations Boris Gryzlov voiced “satisfaction” that Kyiv had agreed to measures “after nearly five months of resistance”. Accord follows 3 July meeting between political advisors to Normandy Four leaders in Berlin, and comment by deputy head of Russian presidential administration Dmitriy Kozak 4 July who said sides were close to adopting new ceasefire measures. Zelenskyy 30 July appointed Leonid Kravchuk, Ukraine’s first president, chief envoy to Minsk negotiations, replacing second president Leonid Kuchma; Kravchuk called for “compromise” on implementing accord’s political provisions and suggested сreating special economic zone in Donbas. Meanwhile, fighting at contact line continued throughout month, killing at least seven govt servicemen; Russia-backed forces also lost 10-14 personnel, according to Ukrainian casualty tracker; one civilian was killed in government-controlled section of Zaitseve, two injured on both sides of the contact line. Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s Special Monitoring Mission Chief Monitor Yaşar Halit Çevik 11 July said that mission observed five-fold increase of military hardware near contact line between 4 April and 20 June. Over 3,000 people 6 July had water cut off after shelling destroyed pipelines on outskirts of Horlivka city in Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR). DPR de facto authorities reported total of 1,751 COVID-19 cases as of 31 July, and Luhansk People’s Republic registered 612 cases same day. DPR 6 July announced re-opening of quasi-border crossing at Olenivka. Kyiv 30 July asked Belarusian govt to extradite members of private Wagner military battalion arrested 29 July in Minsk, citing group’s suspected involvement in war crimes in Donbas.

Amid ongoing violence in east, high-level debates continued on how to implement the Minsk agreements’ political provisions. Violence along Donbas front lines remained concentrated around Svitlodarsk, Avdiivka-Yasynuvata, Donetsk city, and Shyrokyne on Azov Sea, according to Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). Fighting in June killed four govt servicemen, according to military press service, and 21 Russian-backed fighters, according to pro-Ukrainian non-government source; one civilian injured in Avdiivka, east of Donetsk city in same period, according to OSCE. Russian-backed forces continued to limit access for OSCE ceasefire compliance monitors. Head of presidential office Andriy Yermak 17 June said that govt prepared new bill incorporating Steinmeier Formula which states that “special status” for de facto regions as provided for in 2015 Minsk agreements should be recognised simultaneously with Kyiv holding elections in these areas; govt discussed draft with Minsk political sub-group comprising civil society representatives from Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Following series of Trilateral Contact Group (TCG) virtual meetings 9, 11, 15 and 25 June  attended by newly appointed representatives of Ukraine govt , OSCE’s top TCG envoy 25 June noted that sides were unable to agree on security modalities for opening of new civilian crossing points in Luhansk region; welcomed partial reopening of existing crossings. Govt 10 June partially reopened two civilian checkpoints at contact line; de facto authorities 18 June began allowing entry in Luhansk region; entry into Donestsk People’s Republic remains restricted. Sides 22 June opened Novotroitske/Olenivka checkpoint in Donetsk region for entry into govt-controlled areas; confusion over crossing procedures left dozens stranded at checkpoints. NATO 12 June granted Ukraine “enhanced opportunities partner” status, enabling “access to interoperability programs and exercises”. U.S. 17 June delivered $60mn in military equipment to govt. Govt 17 June extended COVID-19 quarantine measures until 31 July due to spike in infections.