Deadly fighting continued in Donbas as sides conducted online negotiations and Ukrainian and Russian-backed separatist leadership moved to lift COVID-19 quarantine restrictions. Violence along Donbas front lines remained concentrated near Donetsk, Horlivka, Zolote disengagement area, and east of Mariupol, according to Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE); govt forces lost at least five servicemen, and Russian-backed forces lost up to 22 people according to pro-Ukrainian non-government source, while one civilian killed and at least twelve injured, according to OSCE and UN reports. First week of May saw more civilian casualties than any single week over past two years, according to 8 May UN appeal calling for all sides to respect humanitarian law; appeal was “addressed to a greater extent […] to the command of the Joint Forces Operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine”, as all casualties had been reported in separatist-held areas. Dmitry Kozak, Russia’s chief negotiator for Donbas conflict, 13 May visited Berlin to meet with German counterpart; said meeting had produced “agreements on mutual next steps” for conflict resolution. Kyiv 14 May brought newly beefed-up delegation to online Trilateral Contact Group (TCG) negotiations, during which its representatives reiterated their refusal to amend constitution to guarantee self-governing status for areas currently held by separatists within Ukraine, and to hold elections in these areas while Russia and proxy forces controlled country’s eastern border. Following 28 May TCG meeting, Zelenskyy said Russian delegation did “not object” to full Ukrainian control in present-day separatist-held areas before elections.

Despite hopes of ceasefire amid COVID-19 outbreak, deadly fighting in Donbas continued, while sides made limited progress toward political resolution to conflict. In conflict zone, fighting near standard hotspots along central part of contact line – near Donetsk, Debaltseve, Horlivka, and Mariupol cities – killed five govt soldiers and eleven Russian-backed fighters throughout month according to official and unofficial data; Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) reported four civilians injured and one killed. OSCE monitors reported consistent denials of access by authorities to so-called People’s Republics. Kyiv and de facto authorities 16 April swapped prisoners in “Easter exchange”; Kyiv received twenty prisoners for releasing fourteen separatist fighters. At 22 April meeting of Trilateral Contact Group (TCG), sides reportedly agreed to establish new working group – with representatives of border guard and customs services of Russia and Ukraine and OSCE mediators – to discuss compromise formulas for resumption of govt control of eastern border with Russia. Govt 6 April tightened COVID-19 restrictions, prohibiting outside meetings of more than two people and introducing large fines and prison terms for offenders; opposition members and human rights activists criticised measures. President Zelenskyy 13 April signed law allowing govt agencies to access and exchange citizens’ personal data without consent until end of lockdown, which govt 23 April extended until 11 May, as death toll in govt-controlled areas passed 260 end-April. In separatist-held areas, following closure of checkpoints for civilians in March, govt and Russia-backed forces allowed delivery of humanitarian aid; de facto authorities by 29 April announced total 229 cases and four deaths. Representatives of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France 30 April held virtual Normandy Four meeting, noting lack of progress on de-escalation measures agreed at 9 Dec summit; Moscow reiterated demands for Ukraine to negotiate terms of breakaway areas’ return to Kyiv’s jurisdiction directly with de facto leaders; Kyiv expressed readiness for dialogue with the areas’ residents, but not Russian-backed authorities.

As fighting continued in Donbas and civilian cross-line movement ceased due to COVID-19 restrictions, creation of Minsk Trilateral Contact Group advisory council (which Kyiv said would give residents of conflict-affected areas opportunity to input into implementation of 2015 Minsk II agreements) led to split within ruling party, potentially derailing conflict-resolution process. In conflict zone, eleven govt soldiers reported killed and seven Russian-backed fighters killed according to unofficial data. Two civilians were killed in shelling, gunfire and landmine incidents per Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). In unprecedented move, head and deputy head of Ukraine’s and Russia’s presidential administrations respectively 11 March signed working protocol for new advisory council within Minsk Trilateral Contact Group for Donbas negotiations; council will adopt non-binding recommendations on implementation of 2015 Minsk II agreements; OSCE, Russia, France and Germany will have consultative powers; representatives of non govt-controlled areas identified as “plenipotentiary”. Decision divided ruling party: 50 MPs from President Zelenskyy’s “Sluha Narodu” party signed appeal to retract agreement. Kyiv police say 1,000 protesters 14 March marched against what organisers called Zelensky’s “capitulation” to Russia. Amid spread of COVID-19, military 16 March stopped movement at all civilian entry-exit checkpoints at contact line in Donbas for two weeks, except permanent residents; Russia-backed fighters took same measures starting 21 March. Kyiv closed its state borders 27 March. Zelenskyy 4 March replaced his cabinet. Parliament 31 March passed laws forbidding past owners of insolvent banks from regaining assets; permitting sale of land, paving way for $8bn in credit from International Monetary Fund.

Violence increased in Donbas conflict zone, while Moscow and Kyiv remained split on measures to enable local elections there in Oct. Clashes between govt forces and Russia-backed fighters spiked at contact line near Zolote disengagement area in Luhansk region 18 Feb and clashes erupted periodically near Svitlodarsk city and Shyrokyne village in Donetsk region. According to govt and independent Ukrainian sources, Russia-backed fighters 18 Feb stormed army observation post set up in Jan in buffer zone between opposing positions. Citing attack, govt adviser Serhiy Sivokho postponed launch of National Platform for Dialogue and Unity scheduled for 19 Feb. Four govt soldiers and 16-38 Russian-backed troops killed during month according to various Ukrainian sources, and two civilians injured in non-govt-held territory according to Organization for the Security and Co-operation in Europe. FM Prystaiko 20 Feb told UN General Assembly that govt believed deployment of UN peacekeepers to uncontrolled part of border with Russia could enable local elections in Donbas in Oct. Russian FM Lavrov 26 Feb said that Kyiv had failed to fulfil 9 Dec Normandy Summit commitments, including those paving way to elections, precluding plans for next summit on conflict. Kremlin’s spokesman 11 Feb said Deputy Head of Presidential Administration Dmitry Kozak will take over responsibility for “Ukrainian affairs and integration issues” while in Ukraine Andriy Yermak, who is in bilateral talks with Kozak, replaced Andriy Bohdan as Head of Presidential Office 11 Feb. Three Western think tanks and one Russian group 14 Feb published “Twelve Steps” plan on de-escalation in Ukraine ahead of Munich Security Conference in Germany; FM Prystaiko assailed plan’s lack of reference to international law, Ukrainian opposition denounced plan as pro-Kremlin; Myrotvorets site, linked to prominent officials, added signatories to database of “pro-Russian terrorists”; sources close to Kremlin described plan as out of step with Moscow’s positions.

Despite hopes for progress over resolution Donbas conflict during 9 Dec Normandy summit, month saw increase in military and civilian casualties in Donbas conflict zone. Although Kyiv and Moscow agreed to withdraw troops at three additional locations by March 2020, conflict parties have yet to formally agree on any locations after two meetings of Trilateral Contact Group (TCG) in Minsk. Kyiv insists on resuming control of border with Russia in uncontrolled territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions before holding elections there; Kyiv envoy and ex-president Kuchma 16 Jan asked for new TCG subgroup devoted to border issues, which would also address necessary border access for OSCE monitors; Moscow and de facto leaders have not responded; Kyiv’s TCG envoy for political affairs Reznikov 23 Jan said “Minsk agreements need to be re-examined” in reference to border handover. Russian President Putin 11 Jan reiterated calls for Ukraine to amend its constitution, in accordance with Minsk agreements, to recognise special status of areas currently under separatist control. Associate of Putin’s aide Vladislav Surkov, who oversees Russian support and control of separatist-held Donbas, said 25 Jan that Surkov had resigned due to shift in Moscow’s Ukraine policy; Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied any such shift. Dmitry Kozak, newly-appointed head of Russia’s presidential administration, is expected to take on his responsibilities. Use of heavy weaponry increased mid-Jan, with fighting concentrated east of Zolote disengagement area, near Shyrokyne, Avdiivka, and Svitlodarsk. Per official and independent sources, govt forces 1-29 Jan lost eleven servicemen at contact line, thirty-three injured; Russian-backed fighters lost from three to at least nine; at least three civilians injured due to mines and explosive devices, one person injured by shelling.

Kyiv, Moscow, and de facto leaders moved tentatively to fulfil pledges of 9 Dec Normandy summit prompting celebration and controversy in Ukraine, while low-level fighting continued in Donbas. Leaders of Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany met 9 Dec at their first Normandy Format summit since Oct 2016 to discuss moves toward peace in Donbas. Kyiv and Moscow agreed to conclude new demining action plan, facilitate exchange of prisoners held by Kyiv and de facto authorities before end of 2019, withdraw troops at three locations by March 2020, plan for new civilian crossing points, and continue to discuss controversial elements of a political solution. The sides exchanged 200 prisoners 29 Dec, with de facto authorities receiving 124 detainees, while Kyiv welcomed 76. Those whom Kyiv handed over included five riot police suspected of killing unarmed protestors during the 2014 Maidan uprising, prompting fresh protests involving families of those killed. Kyiv authorities indicated investigations into the five former officers will continue, but UN warned this would be difficult and criticised govt for narrowing path to justice for 2014 killings. Others exchanged included two Ukrainian Radio Free Europe journalists held by de facto authorities, and people accused of conflict-related crimes by both sides with various degrees of evidence. Ukrainian pro-govt forces lost 10 soldiers 28 Nov-1 Jan per official reports; at least nine Russia-backed fighters were killed according to an anti-separatist non-govt source. Per official and independent sources, 111 Ukrainian government troops died in battle in 2019, nearly equal to 2018 levels but down from 198 in 2017. Independent experts estimate 250-300 Russian-backed fighters were killed in battle. Monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe stated that as of 25 Dec, 18 civilians had been killed in 2019 and 127 wounded, down from 43 killed and 179 wounded in 2018. Moscow and Kyiv agreed 21 Dec to prolong transfer of Russian gas through Ukraine for five years; Russia’s Gazprom will pay Kyiv $2.9 billion to settle past dispute.

Sides progressed on withdrawal of troops from pilot zones along front line, while leaders of Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France geared up for early-Dec peace talks. Participants of so-called Normandy Format set to gather 9 Dec for first time since 2017 for summit to negotiate next steps on resolving Donbas conflict; expected to sign communiqué that may serve as starting point for more detailed and far-reaching measures. President Zelenskyy 20 Nov listed several desired outcomes from summit: concrete agreement on prisoner exchange, modalities for a sustainable ceasefire, strategy for Ukraine to regain control of its eastern border, and plans for elections under Ukrainian law on territories currently held by separatists. In conflict zone, Ukrainian military and Russia-backed separatists completed troop disengagement at two pilot zones along front line, Zolote (1 Nov) and Petrivske (12 Nov); Zolote withdrawal coincided with 75-80% drop in reported ceasefire violations, however ceasefire violations increased again by mid-month, recorded at same level as July before “unlimited ceasefire” agreement. Ukrainian govt forces lost three servicemen in combat 23 Oct-23 Nov, Russia-backed forces sixteen according to various reports; four civilians injured, all in separatist-controlled territories. Kyiv eased some restrictions on freedom of movement of civilians across contact line end-Nov, simplifying procedures for minors and transporting goods, and opened new bridge at pedestrian crossing point Stanytsia Luhanska. Zelenskyy continued apparent efforts to balance normalising relations with Russia and moving closer to West, including 15 Nov signing of law to unbundle natural gas supplier Naftogaz, condition of Ukraine-EU Association Agreement. International Court of Justice 8 Nov issued judgment recognising its own jurisdiction in suit Kyiv filed in 2017 accusing Moscow of violations of International Convention for the Suppression of Financing of Terrorism and International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination. Security services mid-Nov arrested Georgian citizen Al-Bara Shishani, alleged senior member of Islamic State (ISIS), in Kyiv. Moscow 18 Nov returned ships it seized in Azov Sea Nov 2018, in reportedly badly damaged state.

Kyiv’s efforts to unlock long-stuck negotiation process with Russia-backed separatists prompted significant public backlash, but yielded tentative progress toward new Normandy summit and bilateral troop disengagement along front line, where security situation remained precarious. President Zelenskyy 1 Oct announced Kyiv had agreed to withdraw some troops from front line and signed on to so-called Steinmeier Formula for implementing the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, opening door to long-awaited Normandy summit with Russia, Germany and France. Steinmeier Formula seeks to elide Kyiv and Russia/separatists’ disagreement on when “self-governing status” element of Minsk should take effect – after Ukrainian govt resumes control of its eastern border with Russia and holds elections under Ukrainian law (Kyiv’s vision) or before elections (Moscow and the separatists’ vision); Steinmeier stipulates special status and local elections must happen simultaneously. Domestic political opposition claim Steinmeier legitimises separatist regimes and amounts to surrender. Protesters gathered periodically with some 13,000 marching “against capitulation” 14 Oct; Kyiv attributed protests to communication failures. Disengagement did not proceed as planned 7 Oct; Kyiv blamed other side for ceasefire violations, while Russia and separatists blamed Kyiv’s inability to control armed far right, some of whom had begun an ongoing protest at one of the slated withdrawal zones, Zolote. Kyiv 14 Oct announced disengagement “postponed”; next day, Trilateral Contact Group parties cut short scheduled meeting involving discussion of plans to exchange prisoners and renew social services in separatist-held areas. Following controversial 27 Oct argument between Zelenskyy and right-wing activists in Zolote, national police announced activists had removed weapons from their front-line HQ. Sides announced start of disengagement at Zolote 29 Oct. Meanwhile, number of ceasefire violations well above Sept average. Ukrainian govt forces lost eight servicemen and one servicewoman (mostly due to sniper fire), while LDNR forces lost at least ten fighters; fourteen civilians injured 28 Sept - 30 Oct, all on separatist-held territory, eleven due to unexploded ordinances and mines. In positive news, Ukrainian authorities opened temporary bypass bridge at Stanytsia Luhanska, used by 10,000-12,000 people crossing front line daily.

Moscow and Kyiv made shaky progress advancing long-stuck conflict resolution process: Moscow and Kyiv freed 35 prisoners each in an exchange heralded as a step forward; Ukrainian returnees included filmmaker Oleh Sentsov and sailors captured near Kerch Strait in Nov 2018. Those whom Kyiv freed include journalist Kirill Vyshinsky and Vladimir Tsemakh, a key witness in trial over 2014 downing of flight MH-17 over eastern Ukraine. July ceasefire, hailed as unprecedentedly wide-ranging, frayed as violations roughly doubled over August levels. At least twelve Ukrainian soldiers and fourteen members of armed groups killed; five civilians injured from shelling and small arms fire, two civilians dead at entry-exit points along the Line of Contact, and one killed and two injured by explosives, according to reports from Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) and de facto leaders. Minsk Trilateral Contact Group considered so-called Steinmeier formula, which foresees simultaneous holding of local elections in areas currently controlled by Russia-backed separatists, and granting of special status to these areas. Minsk envoys also discussed plans for trial disengagement of forces along front line. Failure to agree on these issues, however, cast doubt on hopes for new Normandy summit in Oct, while SMM reports showed new military activity in would-be disengagement zones. U.S. govt unblocked $391mn of military aid to Ukraine; President Zelenskyy stated during 25 Sept press conference with President Trump that he had no intent to interfere in U.S. elections after scandal erupted in U.S. Congress over Trump’s allegedly pressuring Ukraine to investigate business dealings of Democratic rival Joe Biden’s son during July phone call, and possibly conditioning aid on said investigation. After transcript of call released 25 Sept showed Zelenskyy assuring Trump that Ukraine’s new Prosecutor General would be “100% my person” and would “look into the company that you mentioned”, European Commission emphasised that financial support to Ukraine was premised on conditions such as independence of the judiciary. U.S. envoy to Ukraine Kurt Volker resigned 27 Sept, as did Ukrainian defence council head Oleksandr Daniliuk.

Combatants violated ceasefire in Donbas in east, while Ukraine and Russia moved closer to landmark prisoner swap and resumption of Normandy Four talks on implementing 2014-2015 Minsk Agreements. In Donbas, despite unprecedented agreement late July to renew ceasefire indefinitely, clashes continued with flare-ups 6 and 29 Aug: nine Ukrainian servicemen and at least nineteen separatist fighters killed, no civilian deaths reported. Number of ceasefire violations recorded by Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe fell to one third of number recorded in July. President Zelensky and Russian President Putin 7 Aug reportedly discussed potential release of Ukrainians imprisoned in Russia on charges connected to hostilities between two countries. Zelensky 13 Aug signed decree simplifying Ukrainian citizenship procedures for Russian victims of political repression and foreigners and stateless persons who have fought against Russian-backed forces in east. After Putin met French President Macron 19 Aug, Putin’s press secretary 22 Aug said that two presidents had discussed prisoner exchanges and Moscow was taking steps in that regard. Ukrainian Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs Olena Zerkal 22 Aug suggested Russia was using prisoner exchanges as part of “bargaining” strategy to facilitate its return to G7. German Chancellor Merkel 25 Aug said preparations were underway for summit in Paris of Normandy Four (Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France); Putin’s spokesman said that whether or not meeting takes place would depend on progress in prisoner exchanges. Zelensky told U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton in 28 Aug meeting in Kyiv that Ukraine would welcome U.S. participation in Normandy format talks. Ukrainian authorities 28 Aug released Kirill Vyshinsky, former editor of Ukrainian service of Russia’s RIA News, charged with treason in 2018; release was key Russian demand. Ukrainian activist 30 Aug reported 28 prisoners, including Crimean filmmaker Oleh Sentsov and sailors arrested after Nov Black Sea standoff, were due in Kyiv imminently, but negotiations over possible transfer to Russia of Volodymyr Tsemakh, key witness to 2014 downing of flight MH-17, were delaying their return.