Following escalation in fighting between govt forces and Russian-backed separatists in Donbas in east, parties renewed ceasefire 21 July, and President Zelensky’s party won snap parliamentary elections. In Donbas, fighting intensified in first half of July with both sides using heavy weapons along contact line; at least eight separatist fighters, twelve members of Ukrainian army and national guard, and five civilians killed. Talks made progress on several fronts. At 17 July Trilateral Contact Group (TCG) meeting in Minsk, capital of Belarus, parties agreed on how to rebuild pedestrian bridge at Stanytsia Luhanska checkpoint, critical for humanitarian access, and not to use it for military purposes. At 18 July TCG meeting, sides agreed to implement renewed ceasefire from 21 July in Donbas, for first time specifying “ban on any sort of fire”, and made progress toward “all-for-all” prisoner exchange. After military 19 July allegedly suggested it would reject TCG ban on defensive fire, Ukraine’s envoy to talks clarified ceasefire would not prohibit return fire in case of attack. Parliamentary elections held peacefully 21 July but turnout low at 49.8%; Zelensky’s Sluha Narodu party won with 42% of vote, pro-Russian Opozytsiyna Platforma-Za Zhyttya came second with 13%. Ukraine-Russia relations remained strained. Zelensky and Russian President Putin in phone call 11 July (their first direct interaction) reportedly discussed 24 Ukrainian sailors whom Russian security forces captured in Nov 2018. After Russian state investigators finalised charges against sailors of violating country’s borders, Moscow court 17 July approved investigators’ request to prolong their pre-trial detention for two additional months until late Oct. Putin 17 July signed order to expand eligibility for expedited Russian citizenship; in addition to those registered in areas controlled by Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, all residents and former residents of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts will be able to apply; Ukraine condemned move. During U.S. and Ukrainian-led multinational maritime exercise in north west Black Sea. Ukraine navy said Russian destroyer 10 July created “dangerous situation” by sailing into area restricted for live-fire drills, which Russia denied. Ukrainian authorities 24 July in Odessa region detained Russian tanker allegedly used to block Kerch Strait prior to Russian seizure of Ukrainian boats and their crews 25 Nov; Russian crew released that day.

Fighting continued in Donbas, Ukrainian delegation to Minsk peace process proposed way to break deadlock, and constitutional court removed remaining barriers to snap parliamentary elections in July. At 6 June Trilateral Contact Group meeting in Belarusian capital Minsk, Ukraine envoy proposed both sides’ full withdrawal of forces near civilian checkpoint at Stanytsia Luhanska, lifting of Kyiv’s economic blockade on areas held by Russian-backed separatists, and renewed ceasefire that would prohibit return fire. President Zelensky’s opponents, including former President Poroshenko, characterised proposals as capitulatory; head of far-right National Corps party called subsequent troop deaths “the price of prohibitions on shooting at the enemy”, prompting military command to clarify that troops were still returning fire. Conflict in the East 1-27 June left at least ten Ukrainian Armed Forces and National Guard soldiers and at least fifteen members of Russia-backed separatist groups killed; at least two civilians dead, 22 injured. In victory for head of National Corps party, parliament 6 June approved law granting foreign fighters path to citizenship. Constitutional court 20 June ruled in favour of Zelensky’s May order to disband parliament, paving way for early elections scheduled for 21 July. Dutch prosecutors 19 June announced three Russians and one Ukrainian would be tried for murder of all 298 passengers of flight MH-17, shot down over Donbas in 2015. Russia 25 June announced it would free Ukrainian sailors captured in Nov 2018 Black Sea attack, provided Ukraine try them for violating Russian law; Ukraine 26 June refused. Ukrainian delegation to Council of Europe’s Parliamentary Assembly 25 June announced it would suspend activities in body after council voted 24 June to reinstate Russia’s membership. Drawing condemnation from Kyiv security establishment, opposition leader and family friend of Russian President Putin, Viktor Medvedchuk, 27 June met leaders of self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics.

President Zelensky’s call for snap parliamentary elections and sweeping changes to administration caused stir, while fighting continued in conflict zone. During his 20 May inauguration speech, Zelensky announced he was disbanding parliament and calling snap elections, anticipated 21 July. Zelensky requested resignation of prosecutor general, defence minister and head of security services (SBU), and urged other key officials to quit; resignations included PM and FM. Appointments included Ivan Bakanov, who heads Zelensky’s comedy studio and political party, as SBU deputy head; and lawyer Andriy Bogdan as head of presidential administration; Bogdan signalled possible referendum on whether to negotiate with Moscow to end Donbas conflict. Zelensky signed decree returning Ukrainian citizenship to former Georgian President Saakashvili 28 May. Zelensky and deputy from outgoing President Poroshenko’s party both submitted to parliament separate draft laws outlining impeachment procedures 29 May. Reported casualties in conflict zone 1-31 May included eleven Ukrainian military, at least 22 armed group fighters, and three civilians; over 50 combatants and six civilians reportedly injured. Ukrainian military 22 May reported eight soldiers who unintentionally entered separatist-held territory in Donbas had been detained by Russian-backed forces. Several civilians reported wounded by shelling and explosives, including in Horlivka and Pervomaisk (controlled by armed groups); two elderly men died crossing line of separation 10 and 22 May; one man killed by explosive in Velyka Novosilka (govt-controlled) 4 May. Zelensky visited Donbas war zone 27 May. Poroshenko 7 May appointed 75 new Supreme Court judges, including fifteen previously vetoed by Public Integrity Council. Hamburg-based International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea 25 May announced decision on lawsuit that Ukraine filed against Russia regarding 24 Ukrainian sailors captured in Kerch Strait in Nov 2018, ordering Russia to “immediately” release sailors; Russia announced it will not carry out judgment.

Comedian Volodymyr Zelensky’s decisive victory in presidential run-off election prompted speculation over implications for conflict with Russia and prospects for reintegration of Donbas conflict zone in east, while Russia’s announcement of simplified passport procedures for residents of separatist-controlled areas, and parliament’s passing of Ukrainian language law, signalled immediate challenges facing president-elect. Zelensky won 73% of vote in 21 April presidential election run-off, following campaign characterised by absence of information on his policies beyond desire to resolve Donbas conflict but continue to move country toward West; and allegations by incumbent President Poroshenko that Zelensky is Russia appeaser and tool of oligarch Ihor Kolomoyskyi. Immediately ramping up pressure on president-elect, Moscow 24 April announced it would simplify Russian citizenship applications for residents of non govt-controlled areas, prompting condemnation from Kyiv and international partners including U.S., Canada and EU member states. Poroshenko called move preparation “to annex Ukrainian Donbas or create a Russian enclave” and said he had appealed to UN Security Council to discuss issue; Security and Defence Council Secretary Oleksandr Turchynov said Russia was preparing “legal conditions” to openly use force against Ukraine with pretext of protecting Russian citizens. Parliament 25 April passed controversial law on quotas for use of Ukrainian language in news, media and print publications, and stating that “attempts to establish multilingualism on an official level” will be considered unconstitutional. Move seen partially as response to election of Russian-speaker Zelensky, who previously voiced opposition to promoting Ukrainian using “the stick method”; Zelensky promised to “review” law. Violence continued in conflict zone; casualties in period 1-29 April included: ten Ukrainian Army soldiers, some twenty separatist fighters, and one civilian. Several civilians reported wounded by shelling and explosives; one state demining worker killed and two injured near Maiorsk 9 April. Amid continued concern over govt’s flagging battle against corruption, Poroshenko 11 April appointed 38 judges to newly-established High Anti-Corruption Court, including eight whom independent experts assessed as unqualified.

Police and protestors clashed on one occasion and hostilities increased slightly in Donbas as Ukraine prepared for first round of presidential elections 31 March. Ceasefire violations increased in conflict zone, with Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) monitors recording average of just under 400 explosions per day compared with under 300 in Feb. Violations peaked in first week of March, fell precipitously following 8 March recommitment to ceasefire, then saw another spurt 19-21 March. SMM reported five civilian injuries, three from explosive device and two from shelling; armed groups reported two additional civilian deaths from shelling; three people reportedly died of natural causes while crossing line of separation. Ukrainian armed forces reported eleven combat deaths 21 Feb-31 March; Ukrainian unofficial sources reported 21 members of armed groups killed in same period. Ukrainian authorities unilaterally opened Zolote checkpoint 24 March, citing 2015 agreement within Normandy Four negotiation format, however no crossings transpired, and head of so-called Luhansk People’s Republic said crossing would remain closed until “coordinated decision” by both sides. Ahead of 31 March first round of presidential election, far-right National Corps party held three “days of rage” during month to call for arrest of former National Security Council deputy head and others recently alleged to have overseen corruption schemes in defence sector. Protestors clashed with police 9 March after reportedly attempting to storm campaign rally by President Poroshenko; police reported 22 officers were injured; subsequent protests largely peaceful. Exit polls showed Volodymyr Zelensky with commanding lead in first round, with Poroshenko in second place. In 20 March interview with The Hill, Prosecutor General Yuriy Lutsenko accused U.S. Ambassador Marie Yovanovitch, who denounced ongoing corruption in 5 March speech, of giving him a list of people who should be immune from prosecution; Yovanovitch denied claim.

Month saw concerns around integrity of 31 March presidential elections and potentially disputed poll amid allegations of high-level corruption in the defence sector, along with rise in casualties among military and separatists in conflict zone and continued tensions with Russia over Azov Sea. Military reported ten soldiers killed in fighting with Russian-backed separatists in east since end-Jan; about 20 separatist fighters also reported killed. Two civilians killed and three injured after bus hit anti-tank mine near checkpoint in Donetsk People’s Republic 23 Feb; at least three elderly civilians died while waiting to cross contact line. As of 20 Feb, number of explosions recorded by Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) had tripled since end-Jan. OSCE monitors also reported several aircraft sightings in apparent violation of Minsk agreements. In 20 Feb address to UN General Assembly, Poroshenko called for fact-finding mission for a peacekeeping contingent in Donbas. Interior Ministry announced investigations into reports of attempted vote-buying ahead of presidential elections, particularly by incumbent’s campaign; Poroshenko and various govt institutions also warned of possible Russian interference through disinformation, agent provocateurs; Kyiv and its Western allies concerned about possible Russian cyberattacks; official sources claim govt may stage military provocation ahead of vote. Front runners remain comedian Volodymyr Zelensky, incumbent Petro Poroshenko, and former PM Yulia Tymoshenko. Media investigation published 25 Feb outlined scheme, allegedly overseen by deputy head of Security and Defence Council, to supply military with contraband equipment from Russia at inflated prices; presidential challenger Tymoshenko 26 Feb called for Poroshenko’s impeachment. Constitutional Court 26 Feb abolished criminal liability for illegal enrichment, possibly putting IMF funding at risk. Tensions continue to simmer between Russia and Ukraine in Azov Sea, Kerch Strait and Black Sea; EU 18 Feb confirmed new sanctions against eight Russian citizens due to Russia’s Nov 2018 use of force on Ukrainian naval vessels and ongoing imprisonment of 24 sailors and security personnel.

Campaigning for presidential elections scheduled for 31 March kicked off following expiration of martial law late Dec, as low-level hostilities continued in Donbas and tensions with Russia continued over 25 Nov attack on Ukrainian vessels off Crimea. As of 16 Jan all 22 sailors and two security agents captured by Russian authorities during attack had their pre-trial detention periods extended to late April. Russian FM Lavrov 18 Jan said that Moscow had agreed to German and French offer to monitor traffic in Kerch Strait but questioned need for Kyiv’s approval; Ukrainian FM Klimkin said release of captured sailors should remain primary focus. Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe passed resolution 24 Jan supporting German and French monitoring proposal, calling on Russia to apply Geneva Conventions to Ukrainian captives. OSCE Chairman-in-Office Martin Saijdik 28 Jan spoke to Austrian newspaper about plans to implement 2014-2015 Minsk Agreements via local elections overseen jointly by OSCE and UN in areas currently held by Moscow-backed armed groups, along with formation of European agency for rebuilding Donbas; Saijdik suggested proposal should be subject to approval by Ukrainian and Russian parliaments. Ukrainian FM called plan “same old thing” but praised call for international oversight; de facto FM of so-called Donetsk People’s Republic termed it “attempt to sabotage the Minsk process”. Three civilians injured in Donbas conflict zone over month, while seven elderly people died waiting to cross Line of Separation in harsh weather conditions; at least three Ukrainian military members and seven armed group fighters killed, at least 28 injured. With over 100 religious communities leaving Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate to join newly-formed Orthodox Church in Ukraine since mid-Dec, Kyiv passed legislation 28 Jan outlining procedures for congregations to switch allegiance and handle disputes over use of worship sites. Kyiv district court sentenced ex-President Viktor Yanukovych in absentia 24 Jan to thirteen years in prison on charges of committing state treason and colluding to wage war against Ukraine and undermine its territorial integrity.

Heightened tensions with Russia following late Nov confrontation between Russian and Ukrainian naval vessels continued, as did hostilities in Donbas despite new truce, while establishment of unified Ukrainian Orthodox Church independent from Russia moved to final stages. U.S. Congress 11 Dec approved resolution condemning Russian use of force in 25 Nov incident in shared waters off Crimea. European Parliament 12 Dec adopted resolution condemning same incident, also called for increased sanctions against Russia if it does not release 24 Ukrainian sailors; encouraged Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe to extend mandate of its Special Monitoring Mission for Ukraine to Azov Sea and Kerch Strait; and noted “concern” at Kyiv’s failure to disarm right-wing groups. NATO Secretary Jens Stoltenberg 13 Dec pledged support for Ukraine, including delivery of secure communications equipment. UN General Assembly 17 Dec passed resolution condemning militarisation of Crimea and surrounding waters. All 24 captured sailors declared themselves prisoners of war as of 27 Dec. Martial law imposed by govt in ten provinces 28 Nov expired 26 December as planned, although restrictions maintained on Russian males aged sixteen-60 entering country. Trilateral Contact Group for implementation of Minsk agreements pledged to renew ceasefire in Donbas beginning 29 Dec, but sides accused each other of violations; about twenty combatants reported killed, four civilians injured 1-31 December. UN announced national Humanitarian Response Plan, which targets Donbas civilians and IDPs, only 38% funded in 2018. Orthodox clergy held Unification Council 15 Dec and appointed head of new unified Ukrainian Orthodox Church; new head 29 Dec announced that Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople would officially grant canonical status to Ukrainian Orthodox Church 6 Jan. Law “on freedom of conscience and religious organisations”, requiring Russia-affiliated Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate to change its name to reflect its Moscow-based leadership, entered force 27 Dec. Russia’s Federal Security Service 28 Dec reported that it had completed 60-km fence dividing Crimea from mainland Ukraine to ward off “sabotage”, contraband, and illegal crossings. International Monetary Fund 18 Dec announced new $3.9bn loan agreement.

Incident involving Russian and Ukrainian naval vessels in Azov Sea late month exacerbated tensions between Kyiv and Moscow, while in Donbas hostilities continued. Russian border patrol 25 Nov attacked Ukrainian naval vessels near Kerch Strait; three Ukrainian servicemen injured, three vessels and 24 servicemen captured; incident believed to constitute Russia’s first overt and uncontested use of force against Ukraine since 2014 annexation of Crimea. In statement to UN Security Council next day, Russia accused Kyiv of “very serious provocation”. Moscow said it would charge captured sailors with violating Russia’s state borders. Ukraine said its vessels acted according to 2003 treaty granting free access to Azov Sea; were attacked in international waters. EU urged Russia to restore freedom of passage and both sides to act with restraint; U.S. accused Russia of reckless escalation, President Trump cancelled meeting with President Putin. Ukrainian govt 26 Nov announced martial law for 30 days starting 28 Nov in ten provinces bordering Russia, Azov and Black Seas, and Moldova’s Russian-allied breakaway area, Transnistria, and 30 Nov banned male Russian nationals aged sixteen-60 from entering country during martial law. Fighting continued in east as peacekeeping talks remained stuck. Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) recorded daily average of 120 explosions, down slightly from Oct. Ukrainian army reported increase in casualties with nine soldiers killed 1-29 Nov; separatist forces reported eight killed; one civilian killed and three injured. Candidates backed by Kremlin claimed victory in elections in Russian-backed separatist entities 11 Nov that Kyiv and allies consider illegal. Tensions grew ahead of final moves to establish self-governing Ukrainian Orthodox Church, opposed by Ukrainian branch of Moscow Patriarchate; amid concerns over possible reallocation of worship sites, unidentified attackers 15 Nov threw two Molotov cocktails on prominent Kyiv church in Kyiv given to Ecumenical Patriarchate. Death of anti-corruption activist Kateryna Handziuk 4 Nov following acid attack late July sparked public demands for more effective law enforcement investigation into her assault. Presidential candidate Anatoliy Hrytsenko attacked by group of masked men in Odesa 28 Nov.

Hostilities in eastern conflict zone worsened as back-to-school ceasefire deteriorated, while tensions increased with Russia over Azov Sea and proposed establishment of a self-governing Ukrainian Orthodox Church. Violence rose in east mid-Oct: reported casualties highest among separatist fighters, however several Ukrainian soldiers also killed, and Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) mission reported several civilian deaths, including of minors. OSCE mission reported more convoys appearing to cross Ukraine-Russia border by night 9-12 Oct, 16 Oct and 27 Oct, when the mission’s drone went missing after spotting convoy. Vladislav Surkov, personal adviser to Russian President Putin, reportedly endorsed separatist “elections” on 11 Nov; pledged financial support to separatist entities. Russian parliament 18 Oct adopted resolution warning of “growing military threat from the Kyiv authorities in Donbas”. Ukrainian concerns about Russian activities in Azov Sea persisted; govt 12 Oct published decree on “Immediate measures for the protection of national interests in southern and eastern Ukraine, the Black and Azov Seas and the Kerch Strait”, including steps to demarcate Ukrainian waters, and deploy military and law enforcement divisions to monitor sea borders. European Parliament passed nonbinding resolution 25 Oct reiterating opposition to Russia’s construction of Kerch bridge and burdensome inspection regime for ships entering and exiting Ukraine’s Azov Sea ports; warned of “reinforced” sanctions on Russia “if the conflict in the Azov Sea escalates further”. Kyiv parliament prolonged special status law for separatist-controlled entities until 31 Dec 2019. Orthodox Moscow Patriarchate announced break with Ecumenical Patriarchate following latter’s 11 Oct move to bring Ukrainian clergy previously excommunicated by Moscow Patriarchate into communion, and its intention to grant autocephaly (self-government) to Ukrainian Orthodox Church. Moscow said move could lead to seizure of worship facilities, Russian parliament statement 18 Oct warned of possible attacks on adherents of Moscow Patriarchate in Ukraine; in Kyiv, interior minister said police will curtail any illegal attempts to seize worship sites. Diplomatic row with Hungary intensified over latter’s granting of citizenship to Ukrainian nationals in violation of Ukrainian law; Kyiv expelled Hungarian consul 4 Oct; Budapest expelled top Ukrainian diplomat and pledged to continue opposing Kyiv’s EU and NATO integration efforts.