Tensions continued over Russia’s military presence in Azov Sea and obstruction of international shipping to Ukrainian ports Mariupol and Berdyansk. President Poroshenko 13 Sept called for further sanctions on Russia over its detention of ships bound for Ukrainian ports since May. Govt 16 Sept announced plans to build new Azov Sea naval base by end of 2018. Ukrainian Navy dispatched two armoured gunboats to littoral Donetsk region 8 Sept, 20 Sept moved two ships and boat from Black to Azov Sea. Russian state media claimed ships had passed into Russian exclusive economic zone and were being “escorted” by Russian coast guard; as boats passed through Kerch strait, Ukrainian navy claimed over ten Russian ships and one Russian aircraft were accompanying them. Russian media 25 Sept reported Ukraine had requested Russian permission for ships’ passage; Ukrainian navy denied. Poroshenko 26 Sept addressed UN General Assembly, highlighting need for peacekeeping force in Donbas and Russia’s military build-up in Crimea, which he said had reflected campaign to annex Azov Sea. In continued fighting in eastern Ukraine, casualties were down from Aug; at least seven killed among forces on both sides; Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe monitors confirmed one civilian death; de facto authorities reported three children killed by landmine 30 Sept. Army 22 Sept announced it had taken control of Vilne (population 150) in Luhansk region, which was previously in no-man’s land. Following 31 Aug killing of separatist leader Aleksandr Zakharchenko, Ukraine’s human rights ombudsman for region reported mass detentions, torture in areas outside govt control, forcing confessions of cooperation with Ukrainian authorities in assassination. Amid backdrop of historical tensions with Budapest over Ukraine’s Hungarian minority, FM Pavlo Klimkin 26 Sept called for closure of Hungarian consulate in Berehove after media published video appearing to show diplomats granting Hungarian citizenship to Ukrainian citizens, in violation of Ukrainian law.

At 21-22 Aug Trilateral Contact Group meeting, parties agreed “back-to-school ceasefire”, but immediately accused each other of violating ceasefire after it came into effect 29 Aug. Adherence to 1 July “harvest ceasefire” waned during Aug, with increased use of large-calibre weapons (though still well below June levels) and casualties again rising among civilians and combatants. Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) monitors reported six civilian fatalities and at least six injured. At least nineteen Armed Forces of Ukraine (UAF) servicemen were killed and 72 injured, and at least seven dead and two injured among Russian-backed forces 22 Jul-28 Aug; conflict hotspots remained Krymske and Novotoshkivske villages in Luhansk, Svitlodarsk bulge, areas surrounding Horlivka, Avdiivka, Donetsk (Marinka), Dokuchaevsk and Mariupol (Lebedynske). OSCE mission reported two convoys of cargo trucks entering and exiting Ukraine at night through Russian-controlled section of eastern border with Russia in Donetsk region 7 Aug; also observed for first time 7 Aug suspected military camp near unguarded road crossing Russian border; published drone footage of previously observed convoys crossing border 10 Aug; 11 Aug reported July sighting of “four distinct electronic warfare systems” near Chornukhyne village, previously unseen by monitors. Lawmakers in Kyiv debated whether to extend validity of Sept 2014 law, due to expire in Oct, guaranteeing temporary “special status” to areas controlled by Moscow-backed separatists upon return to Kyiv’s control; OSCE envoy reportedly wrote letter to parliament arguing that extension of law would give Ukraine leverage to press Russia to agree to peacekeeping mission; while some in Kyiv argue law strengthens Kyiv’s position toward West and Russia, others contend it lost relevance following Jan 2018 “reintegration law”. U.S. President Trump 13 Aug signed act authorising $250mn in security assistance to Ukraine, including $50mn for lethal weapons. Aleksandr Zakharchenko, local head of Russian-backed separatist group, died following Donetsk city bombing 31 Aug; Russian FM Sergei Lavrov called bombing “Ukrainian provocation aimed at ruining the Minsk agreements”; ruled out Normandy Format meetings in near future.

Security situation in east improved from 1 July “Harvest Ceasefire” between Ukrainian military and Russia-backed armed formations; Kyiv reported ceasefire violations dropped 80% 1-11 July; however Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) noted “sharp increase” in ceasefire violations in Donetsk region 29-30 July. Following 11 July Trilateral Contact Group (TCG) meeting, Kyiv reiterated calls for OSCE monitors’ full access up to Russian border; and for return to military positions established by Sept 2014 memorandum. Following 25 July TCG meeting, Kyiv envoy Iryna Herashchenko said Russia refused to consider new prisoner exchange and urged TCG resolution guaranteeing International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) access to Ukrainians in Russian and separatist detention. Ukrainian military casualties included four killed 1-30 July; OSCE reported eight civilians injured, two dead. Tensions rose around Azov Sea, amid reports of Russian searches of Ukrainian vessels and May opening of Kerch bridge linking Crimea to Russia’s Krasnodar region. President Poroshenko 17 July pledged military measures to stop “Russian provocations”; accused Moscow of hindering mining and metallurgical industries, cementing annexation of Crimea, and violating 2003 agreement guaranteeing free movement of vessels in area. Russia accused Ukraine and Western backers of provocations via military exercises in Black Sea, which were followed by Ukrainian aviation exercises on Azov Sea reported by military 30 July. Talks on potential UN mission in Donbas remained deadlocked. Interior Minister Arsen Avakov 16 July elaborated plan for reintegration of areas outside Kyiv’s control through security operations facilitated by a small peacekeeping force; said open questions include nature and duration of “special status” for reintegrated territories; status of Russian language. Following closed-door session at 16 July Helsinki summit between U.S. and Russian leaders, President Putin allegedly claimed he suggested to President Trump for his private consideration that Ukraine’s separatist-held territories conduct internationally recognised referendum on status; U.S. govt 20 July denied it would consider this. U.S. 20 July announced additional $200mn in security assistance for “training, equipment, and advisory efforts”. Parliament 12 July passed amendments to June anti-corruption court law as per calls from Western counterparts.

Foreign ministers of Normandy Four countries (Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France) 11 June met in Berlin for first time since Putin’s Sept 2017 proposal for UN peacekeeping in Donbas, but Minsk implementation deadlock continues. Ukrainian FM reported establishing “clear joint position” with Germany and France, facilitating “coordinated” pressure on Russia. Russian FM Lavrov disagreed, saying Germany and France sided with him on need to fulfil 2015 “Steinmeier formula” and hold Donbas elections in tandem with Russian withdrawal (Ukraine insists on withdrawal first). German and French FMs expressed support for OSCE monitoring and demining, and called for further discussion of Steinmeier formula. Lavrov insisted peacekeepers should not establish transitional international administration, an idea supported by many Western and Ukrainian experts. OSCE Trilateral Contact Group (TCG) representative emphasised at 13 June meeting that Minsk and Normandy are complementary formats. Both sides continue to accuse each other of violating disengagement zones at Petrivske, Stanytsia Luhanska and Donetsk filtration station. Ceasefire violations continued to fluctuate; OSCE reported 23 civilian casualties since 1 June, no deaths. Ukrainian military, separatists reported at least sixteen dead. Ukraine reportedly retook Zholobok village in grey zone, advancing positions toward other side by 2km. De facto authorities said “saboteurs” conducted an explosion 27 June near Ilovaisk, roughly 40km into separatist-held territory. 27 June TCG meeting led to agreement to recommit to ceasefire starting 1 July due to beginning of harvest. Ukrainian and Russian presidents in 9 June phone call agreed on visits from human rights ombudspersons to imprisoned citizens in each other’s countries, but Ukrainian ombudsperson was subsequently denied access to high-profile political prisoners. Parliament 22 June passed new national security and defence law to harmonise military with NATO standards and improve interoperability, civilian control and democratic oversight of armed forces. Parliament 7 June approved establishment of anti-corruption court, but with loophole that would prevent it from reviewing some cases, prompting calls from Western counterparts to amend it.

Increased violence coincided with start of Joint Forces Operation (JFO), amid speculation that Ukrainian forces are systematically retaking “grey zone” villages between the front lines delineated by Minsk II in February 2015, and reports separatists reinforcing positions and escalating shelling of govt-controlled areas near Troitske, Mariupol, Donetsk suburbs. Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) 18 May voiced concern at skirmishes near Horlivka, where Ukrainian army retook Chihari village 14 May. Raids deep inside separatist territory fuelled rumours Kyiv is preparing to escalate: JFO press centre 20 May reported that troops carried out raid near Holmivskiy several km into separatist-held Donetsk; Luhansk separatists said unknown saboteurs 21 May detonated explosives at Shterovka bridge over 40km into their de facto territory. Senior SMM official 21 May described week as “in many ways the worst” this year with almost 7.7k ceasefire violations; expressed “particular concern” about Horlivka. International monitors recorded 31 civilian casualties 1-31 May including ten deaths. Ukrainian army received first tranche of advanced U.S. anti-tank Javelin missile systems; repeated public reassurances they would only be used defensively. Minsk Trilateral Contact Group 4 May announced resumption of mobile phone coverage in separatist-held areas. Poroshenko 10 May discussed roadmap for implementing Minsk through proposed peacekeeping mission at meeting with German Chancellor Merkel and French President Macron. After meeting with Putin in Sochi 18 May, Merkel announced German foreign ministry was working with Russian counterparts to develop “joint mandate” for peacekeeping mission. Macron told press 25 May that EU will discuss sanctions renewal in July and France will support them until Moscow makes progress implementing Minsk. U.S. special envoy Kurt Volker visited govt-controlled areas in conflict zone 15 May. Putin same day opened bridge between Russian mainland and Crimea, Moscow’s only direct road link to annexed region. Dutch-led international criminal investigation into July 2014 downing of Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 24 May announced that Russia’s 53rd Anti-aircraft Rocket Brigade fired the fatal shot.

Negotiations between Ukraine, Western allies and Russia on Donbas peacekeepers remained stalled. U.S. envoy Volker 13 April said peacekeepers would consist of voluntary national contributions rather than be a traditional UN operation, rejected calls to strip Russia of its UN Security Council veto, and reiterated the U.S. had “not heard anything back from Russia” for three months; Moscow rebutted that Ukraine and its allies had still not submitted a counter-proposal to Russia’s Sept 2017 draft. Ukrainian press 3 April reported Normandy Four leaders from France, Germany and Ukraine would meet without Russia to discuss “ways to accelerate implementation of agreements”. Ukrainian President Poroshenko 13 April said over 40 countries expressed willingness to contribute troops and that he had asked the UN to send a needs-assessment mission to Donbas. Parliament 5 April adopted in first reading the law on national security for civilian oversight of secret services and realisation of NATO standards. Far-right anti-corruption march 3 April drew 5,000-10,000 nationalist demonstrators but remained peaceful. Russian FM Lavrov 19 April threatened “harsh retaliatory measures” after Ukraine detained crew of Russian fishing boat off Crimea. Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) 24 April adopted Resolution 2209 that Donbas regions not controlled by govt are “temporarily under the effective control of Russian authorities”. Ukraine 30 April replaced Anti-Terrorist Operation in Donbas with United Forces Operation in line with “reintegration law” adopted in Jan, which empowers president to use military to liberate Donbas. Violence in conflict zone increased slightly as observance of March ceasefire waned. At least five Ukrainian soldiers, six separatist fighters and eleven civilians reported killed; up to eighteen civilians injured 1-30 April.

Violence in conflict zone decreased significantly after Trilateral Contact Group (TCG) and representatives of separatist regions 2 March agreed on comprehensive, unlimited ceasefire, which took effect 5 March and saw violations fall from average of 202 per day late Feb to 21 by 11 March, rising again to 39 mid-March, accompanied by decrease in casualties on both sides and among civilians; TCG recommitted to ceasefire 30 March. OSCE official 14 March said violence at lowest levels of past two years; OSCE also reported sides have still not withdrawn forces or hardware, remain in close proximity, and regularly deploy heavy weapons. OSCE monitors reported continued denial of access in separatist-controlled territories, especially at parts of border with Russia. As sides continued to comment on possibility of a peacekeeping mission in eastern Ukraine and conditions attached, EU 12 March determined that no changes in sanctions regime against Russia were justified and extended measures for another six months. U.S. special envoy Kurt Volker 10 March said Moscow had not responded to Washington’s last round of proposals regarding scope and mandate of mission. U.S. 1 March released statement announcing approval for delivery of $47mn package of 210 Javelin anti-tank missiles and 37 launch units, noting it “will not alter the basic military balance in the region”; U.S. officials repeated that weapons would be stored away from front line. President Poroshenko late Feb submitted national security bill to align armed forces with NATO standards, including democratic oversight of special services and consolidating command structures. Parliament 1 March approved in first reading long-awaited draft bill on establishing Anti-corruption Court, but critics say legislation fails to ensure impartial selection of independent judges. Police 3 March removed anti-govt protest camp in front of parliament, briefly detaining 112 and injuring thirteen, including two seriously; public outcry muted.

President Poroshenko 20 Feb signed controversial Reintegration Law, which declares Donbas Russian-occupied territory; gives president authority to impose martial law throughout country and use military to retake separatist-held areas. Poroshenko issued tweet saying “this is a signal for both Donbas and Crimea: you are an integral part of Ukraine”. Russia and Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR) proxies criticised law: DNR leader Aleksandr Zakharchenko said Ukraine “doesn’t want a peaceful solution”; LNR official Pavel Deynevo called law “late attempt to legalise violence” against Donbas residents. Russian foreign minister said law “side lines implementation of the Minsk agreements”. Disagreements over potential peacekeeping mission remain entrenched. Foreign ministers of Russia and Ukraine held closed-door meeting 16 Feb: Lavrov complained Kyiv and the West were pushing large-scale mission to reintegrate Donbas via international administration whereas Minsk agreement foresaw reintegration via direct dialogue between Kyiv and separatist leaders. Kyiv lawmakers accused Russia, U.S. of ignoring Ukrainian concerns in search for peacekeeping deal. Violence increased in Donbas after relative calm in Jan, with both sides using heavy weaponry. Daily ceasefire violations rose from average 190 explosions per day in Jan to 450 1-26 Feb. Ukraine’s defence ministry reported eleven soldiers, one medic killed 20 Jan-27 Feb; separatists say at least nine dead including two civilian medics. Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) reported one civilian killed, twelve injured 20 Jan-27 Feb. OSCE monitoring mission faced aggression by both sides. At 14 Feb Trilateral Contact Group meeting in Minsk, OSCE Special Representative Martin Sajdik said Ukraine and separatists should lift their mutual trade blockade. Authorities deported former Odesa oblast Governor and ex-Georgian President Saakashvili to Poland 12 Feb, after Ukrainian courts refused his request for asylum. Thousands marched in Kyiv 18 Feb to demand Poroshenko’s resignation. Police report fourteen officers injured in clashes with protesters outside parliament 27 Feb.

Following intense debate, parliament 18 Jan adopted bill 7163 which designates separatist-held parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions Russian-occupied territories; states Russia is military aggressor responsible for conflict-related damage; establishes criminal liability for people who have fought with separatists or worked in their administrations; grants president authority to use military to counter Russian aggression and reestablish sovereignty. Protesters for and against bill clashed near parliament ahead of vote. Viktor Medvedchuk, Ukraine’s envoy to Trilateral Contact Group (TCG, which oversees implementation of Minsk agreements) warned bill would “bury attempts at managing the situation in Donbas peacefully”; Kremlin again denied role in conflict. TCG 18 Jan discussed further hostage exchanges; negotiations continued 31 Jan. Organization for Co-operation and Security in Europe (OSCE) deputy chief monitor for Ukraine Alexander Hug 23 Jan warned that both sides may be preparing for escalation. U.S. envoy Kurt Volker and Putin aide Vlad Surkov held fourth meeting 26 Jan on proposed UN peacekeeping force; discussed possible phased deployment, prisoner exchange, improving civilians’ freedom of movement. Meeting followed German FM 3 Jan statement that Germany and France would push for UN Security Council peacekeeping resolution. Violence increased slightly in conflict zone following end of holiday period 7 Jan, with daily ceasefire violations rising from well below 100 daily 23 Dec to roughly 250 daily on average 9-29 Jan; scores of heavy weapons reported on both sides of line. One civilian, thirteen Ukrainian servicemen and at least fourteen separatist fighters reported killed 19 Dec-19 Jan. New OSCE chief Angelino Alfano visited Kyiv and Donbas 30-31 Jan; Ukrainian foreign minister urged him to pursue unfettered access to separatist territory for OSCE monitors. Ukrainian military chief told NATO committee meeting that army will be able to operate U.S. Javelin anti-tank missiles by summer 2018. World Bank, International Monetary Fund and EU harshly criticised Poroshenko’s proposed legislation to set up Anti-Corruption Court, urged him to follow recommendation of Council of Europe’s Venice Commission, including call for international experts to play role in determining court’s composition.

Violence in conflict zone increased at beginning of month before falling sharply after Minsk Tripartite Group 20 Dec agreed to renewed ceasefire and prisoner exchange. Kyiv 27 Dec released 233 prisoners in exchange for 73 captives held by Russian-backed separatists. Ceasefire violations involving Minsk-proscribed weapons such as Grads almost tripled from end-Nov to mid-Dec; casualties increased among troops on both sides and civilians, including 24 servicemen reported killed 23 Nov-27 Dec, and at least two civilians reported killed and sixteen injured 1-27 Dec. U.S. special envoy Volker 19 Dec reported 2017 was deadliest year since conflict started; UN 7 Dec reported humanitarian crisis in Donbas at its most severe yet. U.S. and Russian foreign ministers met 7 Dec for further discussion on proposed UN peacekeeping mission for Donbas, but no breakthroughs on role of peacekeepers. During annual telethon 14 Dec, Russian President Putin said Kremlin does not reject principle of international control over Donbas, but insisted on direct negotiation between Kyiv and separatists. U.S. President Trump 12 Dec signed into law defence bill authorising $350 million military aid to Ukraine, including lethal weapons if Kyiv meets transparency requirements. EU leaders 14 Dec agreed to extend economic sanctions against Russia for six months. Russia 18 Dec withdrew its officers from Joint Center for Coordination and Control, bilateral Ukrainian-Russian entity that monitors Minsk adherence. Moscow blamed Kyiv for preventing Russian officers from fulfilling their duties to mediate between Kyiv troops and Russian-backed separatists; Kyiv accused Kremlin of trying to force it to negotiate with separatists directly. Mounting Western criticism and internal govt disputes led parliament to delay final consideration of Reintegration law, intended to shape reintegration policy toward separatist territories. Amid ongoing attacks on work of anti-corruption bodies, Poroshenko 22 Dec submitted new law to establish anti-corruption court; civil society groups say law does not facilitate judicial independence. Former Georgian President and Odesa Governor Mikheil Saakashvili continued protests calling for presidential impeachment, arrested twice during month. Dozens injured as police and protesters clashed during anti-Poroshenko rally 17 Dec.