Security deteriorated in conflict zone; ceasefire violations rose from daily average of almost 150 late Oct to over 430 mid-Nov. Military and civilian casualties increased: defence ministry reported ten killed and at least 45 injured 24 Oct-19 Nov, five killed 23 Nov; one killed, two injured when police car hit anti-tank mine 15 Nov; de facto Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) reported six dead and five wounded. OSCE monitors (SMM) reported three civilians killed and six wounded; one child killed playing with unexploded ordinance in Donetsk city school playground. Kremlin announced 15 Nov that Putin spoke to separatists and urged full prisoner exchange with Kyiv. De facto Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) security minister and former Ukrainian security service agent Leonid Pasichnyk replaced Igor Plotnitsky after what appears to have been a coup 21-24 Nov; reports suggested involvement of DNR military and Russian mercenaries. Third meeting 13 Nov between U.S. Special Representative Kurt Volker and Russian representative Vladislav Surkov to discuss UN peacekeeping in Donbas brought little progress; Surkov rejected majority of U.S. proposals. U.S. National Security Council 14 Nov approved $47mn grant to Kyiv for U.S. weapons. European Parliament 15 Nov passed resolution praising reforms in Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia, and recognising future membership potential. EU Eastern Partnership Summit issued declaration saying summit participants “acknowledge the European aspirations” of partners concerned, as stated in Association Agreements. At 29 Nov Minsk Tripartite Contact Group meeting, Kyiv envoy announced plans to exchange 306 hostages by New Year. Continuing efforts to discredit National Anticorruption Bureau (NABU): prosecutor general 17 Nov opened criminal case against NABU Director Artem Sytnyk, accused of leaking evidence from ongoing case. Poroshenko 11 Nov approved 113 new Supreme Court judges, 25 previously denounced by anti-corruption NGO. Activists criticised new leadership of State Investigation Bureau as vulnerable to political influence. Erstwhile Georgian President and Odesa Governor Mikheil Saakashvili continues anti-Poroshenko protest outside parliament; 19 Nov told supporters he was ready to become PM. Masked people 17 Nov kidnapped four more Georgian associates of Saakashvili. Ukraine security service same day deported eight Georgians for “violating national security interests”.

Parliament 6 Oct approved law “On the aspects of state policy of the restoration of Ukraine's state sovereignty over the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions”. Law refers explicitly to “Russian armed aggression” and names Russia the “occupying administration”, disclaiming Kyiv’s responsibility for human rights violations committed in the conflict zone; redefines conflict as self-defence operation; and enables president to impose martial law even beyond the conflict zone. Parliament removed all references to Minsk after 5 Oct brawl in parliament. Parliament 7 Oct approved law prolonging special status of disputed territories, including local self-governance. Western allies welcomed passage as sign of Kyiv’s commitment to Minsk; Moscow called it important. U.S. special representative for Ukraine Volker met Putin aide Surkov 7 Oct to reportedly discuss peacekeeper scenarios. Ceasefire violations increased following early-Sept reduction, OSCE monitoring mission (SMM) reported 180 explosions daily mid-Oct. Kyiv 3 Oct claimed militants used multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) for first time since Aug ceasefire; SMM 10 Oct recorded MLRS use near Lebedynske. Amid heavy fighting in Luhansk 13 Oct, SMM assessed about 240 explosions as outgoing artillery and mortars. Defence ministry reported four soldiers killed and 34 injured 18 Sept-15 Oct; Donetsk separatists reported five dead over same period. Reported civilian casualties included man killed by shrapnel in Zaitseve 8 Oct. Kyiv accused separatists of blocking opening of new Zolote crossing 20 Oct. Several thousand people reportedly rallied in support of former Georgian President/Odesa Governor Mikheil Saakashvili 17 Oct outside parliament in Kyiv, urging govt to cancel parliamentarians’ immunity from prosecution, change electoral law and implement plans to create anti-corruption courts; protests continued late month. Amid growing international and domestic pressure, Poroshenko 20 Oct stated his readiness to sign bill for anti-corruption courts. 25 Oct explosion in Kyiv killed two people in what authorities called a terrorist act.

Significant reduction in ceasefire violations since Aug agreement, though increasing through Sept; 220 violations reported 21 Sept, days after OSCE deputy Alexander Hug warned of likely uptick. Ukraine reported four soldiers, two border guards and several Donetsk People’s Republic fighters killed during month; six civilians on both sides of line of separation injured. OSCE reported 68 civilians killed in 2017, 315 wounded. Senior officials described large 27 Sept military depot explosion as major blow to Ukraine’s fighting capacity. Putin proposed UN peacekeeping mission for Donbas 5 Sept, in shift from previous opposition to idea; proposal initially specified forces only along front line to protect OSCE monitoring mission (SMM), however Putin told German Chancellor Merkel 11 Sept that he would consider it in all areas where SMM operates. Western observers, including U.S. envoy Volker, expressed cautious optimism, others described it as “a distraction”. Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin 19 Sept said that any peacekeepers should cover all Donbas including Russia’s border, and be accompanied by withdrawal of Russian regular and irregular troops and weapons; Poroshenko repeated this at UN General Assembly. Klimkin 26 Sept said draft peacekeeping force resolution ready for UN submission once Russia indicates willingness to accept Kyiv’s terms. U.S. Senate 18 Sept approved defence budget with $500mn in Ukraine security assistance, including controversial defensive lethal assistance. EU-Ukraine Association Agreement entered into force 1 Sept; EU official 20 Sept said Kyiv needs to implement more reforms in coming months including on corruption as condition for further financial aid. EU also extended for six months asset freezes and travel bans on Russian officials and Donbas separatists. Standoff between Poroshenko and erstwhile Georgian president, ex-Odessa governor Mikheil Saakashvili, now a vocal govt critic, escalated after Saakashvili illegally entered Ukraine from Poland 10 Sept, swearing to help solve country’s political crisis. UN human rights office 25 Sept reported Russian state agents in Crimea have committed grave human rights violations since Russian annexation of region in 2014, including torture, arbitrary arrests, forced disappearances and at least one extrajudicial execution.

OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) reported ceasefire violations increased from average 100/day in late July to 330/day mid-Aug, thereafter decreasing slightly. SMM reported GRAD multiple launch rocket system likely fired by separatist forces 1-2 Aug; Ukrainian army 7 Aug reported its positions had been shelled by multiple rocket launch systems. At least nine Ukrainian army personnel reported killed and 77 injured 24 July-20 Aug; during same period, twenty Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) fighters reported killed and twelve wounded, and DNR military command claimed Ukrainian army firing twice as many shells mid-Aug compared with late July; five civilians also reported killed. Monitors report separatist forces continued to deny them access to areas of observation. During 22 Aug Normandy format phone call between Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany, sides agreed ceasefire beginning 25 Aug for start of new school year, but both sides reported violations almost immediately. Newly-appointed U.S. Special Representative Kurt Volker met with Putin aide Vladislav Surkov 21 Aug to discuss progress of Minsk agreements. Surkov reported both sides “proposed fresh ideas and innovative approaches” for implementation; he also stated that “political elements” of Minsk – requirement that Kyiv grant special status to currently occupied territories and hold elections there – should be implemented more quickly. Citing anonymous sources, U.S. Sec Defense Mattis visited Kyiv 24 Aug, said U.S. “won’t accept” Russian annexation of Crimea, is “actively reviewing” possibility of supplying lethal defensive weapons to govt. Moscow and separatists criticised Mattis’ remarks, saying U.S. supply of lethal weapons would be threatening for separatists and escalate conflict. U.S. media 4-5 Aug reported defence officials considering weapons package worth some $50mn including shoulder-launched anti-tank missiles. In Kyiv, director of National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) in interview published 19 Aug said Ukrainian courts conducting “total sabotage” of the Bureau’s efforts, failing to proceed with high-level cases.

Casualties in eastern Ukraine spiked in second half of July after several weeks of modest decline; nine soldiers reported killed in several incidents 20 July, deadliest day of conflict for months. Kyiv 10 July reported that work on draft law to change terms of engagement in Donbas from anti-terror to liberation operation, announced 13 June, is being put aside. Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) head Aleksandr Zakharchenko 18 July announced formation of new political entity, Malorossiya (“Little Russia”), uniting DNR and Luhansk People’s Republic; announcement criticised by Kyiv and West, dismissed by Russia. U.S. Sec State Rex Tillerson 7 July announced former ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker as new U.S. special representative for Ukraine; Volker visited Ukraine with Tillerson 9 July and again late month, said conflict not frozen but a “hot war”, important for U.S. to become more engaged; 25 July said U.S. is considering sending Kyiv lethal weapons to help fight separatists. Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine participated in phone call 24 July in Normandy format, called for immediate halt to ceasefire violations. U.S. Senate 27 July approved new sanctions on Moscow; Russia condemned sanctions, EU expressed concern over impact on European energy security. Poroshenko met NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg in Brussels 10 July, said Ukraine and NATO had started discussing membership action plan; NATO spokesman stated NATO had taken Ukraine’s ambitions into consideration but did not confirm existence of a plan. Stoltenberg expressed NATO’s “unwavering support” for Ukraine’s territorial integrity, called on Russia to remove its “thousands of soldiers from Ukraine” and stop supporting militants with military equipment. Visiting Odessa during joint U.S.-Ukraine military exercises 17 July, Poroshenko reiterated intention to put action plan for NATO membership “back on the agenda”. Ukraine 26 July cut power supply to separatist-controlled areas of Donetsk. EU 11 July formally endorsed EU-Ukraine Association Agreement, to enter into force 1 Sept.

President Poroshenko 20 June met with U.S. President Trump in Washington, reportedly agreed to broaden military cooperation; after meeting senior defence officials next day said the two countries would sign “very important” defence agreements in coming months. U.S. Senate 14 June passed law expanding anti-Russian sanctions and requiring president to receive congressional approval for any future loosening of sanctions; U.S. 20 June announced new financial measures against 38 separatists. Trump 20 June affirmed his commitment to Minsk agreements. EU 19 June extended investment ban on Crimea for another year; 22 June extended sanctions on Russia for another six months. In Kyiv, Security and Defence Council head Oleksandr Turchynov 13 June announced preparation of new law to reinstate sovereignty over “temporarily occupied territory” of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, which would recognise breakaway territories as “occupied”, seeking to place financial burden for their upkeep on Russia; and re-classify Kyiv’s campaign (currently “anti-terror operation”) as operation to liberate occupied territory with involvement of all relevant military, security, and civilian structures. Parliament 8 June passed amendments defining cooperation with NATO as foreign policy priority. PM Groysman 2 June said ongoing blockade of Donbas had cost Ukraine 1% of GDP. Ceasefire violations along front line continue to number in hundreds daily, increasing 75% week of 5-11 June over previous week, with over 1,200 explosions reported, mostly in Luhansk oblast. Ukrainian army lost seven soldiers 10-12 June. OSCE 18 June reported 200% increase in civilian injuries year-on-year since 1 Jan. Number of civilians reported crossing line of contact in Donbas increased by over 11% in May, exceeding 1 million, despite long lines at checkpoints. U.S. 22 June accused separatists of “violence and harassment” against OSCE monitors. Senior military intelligence officer killed in car bomb in Kyiv 27 June. Petya cyberattack on multiple govt and business networks 27 June estimated to have cost 0.5% of GDP.

Several civilians killed and at least two dozen injured by fighting in conflict zone during month. Authorities reported four civilians killed, one seriously injured by shelling in govt-controlled town Avdiyivka 13 May, blamed on Russia-backed separatists; eight civilians injured by artillery fire in town of Krasnohorivka 28 May, also blamed on separatists. Several separatist fighters also reported killed during month. OSCE 25 May reported rate of violence so far in 2017 double that of same period in 2016. Leader of Crimean Tatars Mustafa Dzhemilev 20 May reported Russia had deployed six nuclear warheads on peninsula. Meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov 10 May, U.S. President Trump reportedly stressed Russia’s responsibility to fully implement Minsk agreements; Trump also met with Ukrainian FM Klimkin. President Poroshenko met with German Chancellor Merkel 20 May, agreed on need to improve implementation of Minsk deal. European Council President Tusk 26 May called on G7 countries to maintain sanctions on Russia. New French President Macron met with Russian President Putin 29 May, agreed on need for new round of peace talks. Meeting of deputy FMs of Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia for talks in Normandy Format to discuss Minsk peace process 30 May. President Poroshenko 16 May issued controversial decree banning several popular Russian social networks and websites; imposed sanctions on several Russian IT companies and TV channels; 29 May raided Russian internet search firm Yandex, accusing it of sharing Ukrainian user data with Moscow; Yandex denied. Parliament 23 May approved bill requiring national TV and radio stations to broadcast at least 75% of programming in Ukrainian language. Police 24 May arrested 23 former high-ranking tax officials in corruption probe involving allegations of fraud under former President Yanukovych. European Parliament and European Council 17 May signed EU visa liberalisation into law, to enter into force 11 June; Poroshenko described deal as marking Ukraine’s “divorce from the Russian Empire”.

New ceasefire between Kyiv and Russian-backed separatists went into effect 1 April resulting in reduced fighting; over a dozen Ukrainian soldiers reported killed during month including two killed in clashes with separatists near Avdiivka 21 April; separatists reported two fighters killed during previous week. OSCE launched investigation after one of its monitors, a U.S. national, was killed and two wounded when their car drove over landmine in separatist-controlled Luhansk region 23 April; Kyiv and Russian-backed separatists blamed each other. Ukraine 25 April cut electricity supply to separatist-controlled parts of Luhansk region citing non-payment; Russia said move politically motivated and violated Minsk peace accord, said it would help provide electricity. President Poroshenko 18 April held phone call with German, French and Russian leaders; sides confirmed commitment to implementation of Minsk agreements, urged intensification of efforts to liberate prisoners. International Criminal Court 19 April refused request by Ukraine as part of its case against Russia to impose provisional measures to stop Russia funding and equipping separatists; issued provisional ruling calling for stop to racial discrimination against Crimean Tatars and ethnic Ukrainians in Crimea. Kyiv called court’s ruling and recognition of its jurisdiction “very promising”. PM Hroysman 11 April reiterated govt’s commitment to reforms; central bank Governor Valeria Hontareva resigned previous day citing political pressure. IMF 3 April approved disbursement of $1bn loan tranche to Ukraine, previously postponed due to trade embargo on separatist-controlled areas, citing signs of economic improvement. EU parliament and EU ambassadors gave approval for EU visa liberalisation, expected to enter into force in June. Kyiv court 7 April convicted twelve former members of Tornado battalion of committing crimes against civilians in Luhansk region in early 2015.

In response to rail blockade on east imposed by Ukrainian nationalist activists since late Jan, Russian-backed separatists 1 March began seizing control of enterprises in their territory. Govt 13-14 March attempted to break up blockade, prompting heavy criticism from politicians and activists; 15 March suspended transportation links with separatist-held areas, formalising blockade in order to prevent “destabilising” of situation by activists; said suspension to remain until separatists return control over enterprises and comply with Feb 2015 Minsk agreement. Russia called on Kyiv to cancel blockade to avert “humanitarian catastrophe”. As power shortages continued, Central Bank warned blockade could cut economic growth for 2017 by almost half; IMF 19 March postponed planned $1bn loan disbursement, citing need to assess impact of blockade. OSCE reported continued ceasefire violations, 24 March reported govt and separatist forces had moved closer to each other in several places along front line, increasing risk of flare-ups. President Poroshenko 30 March announced ceasefire and weapons pull-back to start 1 April. Ukraine 31 March reported top regional security officer killed in car bomb in Mariupol, SE. Reuters 24 March reported Russia deploying dozens of tanks near border with Ukraine. Amid ongoing pressure on govt to tackle corruption, Kyiv court 7 March ordered pretrial detention of tax and customs service chief Roman Nasirov pending investigation into allegations he defrauded state of $74mn. EU 16 March agreed to transfer €600mn loan to govt; 13 March extended sanctions against dozens of Russian individuals and entities. U.S. 16 March reaffirmed its condemnation of Russia’s seizure of Crimea and commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Former Russian lawmaker Denis Voronenkov, vocal govt critic who fled to Ukraine in Oct 2016, shot dead in central Kyiv 23 March; Poroshenko called killing “act of state terrorism” by Russia, Moscow denied involvement. Kyiv also said it suspected Russian/separatist involvement in fire at munitions depot in NE 23 March. Ukraine 6 March launched case against Russia at International Court of Justice over Moscow's support for separatists in E Ukraine and Crimea.

Late Jan escalation in clashes along front line around Avdiivka in east continued early Feb, with at least 35 soldiers and civilians reported killed and scores wounded in period 29 Jan-6 Feb. Fighting subsided somewhat 4 Feb, permitting repairs to power lines and restoration of water supplies in area. Efforts continued to restore ceasefire with limited success; Ukrainian military 17 Feb reported three soldiers killed, ten injured previous day. Ukrainian, Russian, German and French FMs 18 Feb agreed to renewed ceasefire and withdrawal of heavy weapons in east taking effect 20 Feb, however OSCE 21 Feb reported continued ceasefire violations, 22 Feb said neither side honouring commitments to withdraw heavy weapons; Ukrainian military 25 Feb said sixteen soldiers wounded in clashes over previous 24 hours. President Poroshenko accused Moscow of violating Feb 2015 Minsk accord after Russia 18 Feb announced it would recognise identification documents issued by separatist entities; France, Germany and EU also criticised Russia. Moscow defended move on humanitarian grounds, said it complied with international law. Poroshenko expressed confidence in continued U.S. support following contacts and statements from senior U.S. officials including 4 Feb phone call with President Trump; 2 Feb statement by U.S. ambassador to UN who affirmed U.S. sanctions against Russia to remain in place until it returns Crimea; and White House spokesperson’s 14 Feb statement that Trump expects Russia to return Crimea to Ukraine. European Commission President Juncker 11 Feb said EU will give Ukraine €600mn to support govt finances; European Parliament 13 Feb approved new rules to waive visa regime for Ukrainians. Kyiv 15 Feb declared partial state of emergency due to nationalist blockade of rail lines delivering coal from separatist entities in east since 25 Jan; clashes broke out in Kyiv 19 Feb between ultra-nationalist demonstrators and police over blockade; separatists 27 Feb threatened to seize Ukrainian-run businesses if blockade not lifted. Several thousand joined protests in Kyiv organised by right-wing parties including far-right Right Sector 22 Feb demanding reform, change of govt. UNICEF 17 Feb reported 1 million children in east in urgent need of humanitarian aid, doubling over past year.