Clashes between military and separatists along front line in east escalated late Jan, with some twenty killed 29-31 Jan in fighting over govt-held Avdiivka, near Donetsk, involving artillery shelling. Ukrainian officials 31 Jan reported eight soldiers killed and 26 wounded since 29 Jan, ten Russian-backed separatists killed and 25 injured; at least two civilians reported killed. Sides blamed each other for escalation; President Poroshenko cut short trip to Germany. UN reported Avdiivka and Yasynuvata towns cut off from electricity supply, some 15,000 civilians left without water, many without heating. UNSC 31 Jan expressed “grave concern” over “dangerous deterioration”, noted severe impact on local civilians, called for immediate return to ceasefire regime. OSCE 19 Jan reported deteriorating security situation in east since New Year despite 23 Dec truce, with increase in ceasefire violations, including use of weapons banned under Minsk agreement; 27 Jan reported five civilians killed in increased fighting around Luganksk in previous two weeks. Ukrainian officials reported two soldiers killed in clashes 27 Jan. Kyiv, Germany, France and others expressed concern during month over whether new U.S. administration will maintain sanctions on Russia linked to its occupation of Crimea and role in separatist conflict in eastern Ukraine. Outgoing U.S. administration made final show of support to Kyiv with visit by VP Biden mid-month, and extension of sanctions on Russia by President Obama until March 2018. New U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin reportedly discussed “partnership” on issues including Ukraine during 28 Jan call, did not discuss sanctions. Chinese President Xi speaking with Poroshenko on sidelines of World Economic Forum 17 Jan said he would like to deepen cooperation with Kyiv and offered assistance in seeking resolution of crisis. Kyiv 16 Jan filed lawsuit against Russia at International Court of Justice (ICJ), accusing it of acts of “terrorism” and “discrimination” in connection with annexation of Crimea and backing separatist fighters in east. Poroshenko 22 Jan said he would resist efforts by “some politicians in Kyiv and Moscow” to push for early parliamentary elections, which he said were calculated to “destabilise our country”. Poroshenko 16 Jan warned continued delay on part of EU in waiving visa requirement for Ukrainians causing disillusionment with EU.

Month saw sudden upsurge of fighting in east resulting in significant casualties. In one of largest clashes Kyiv reported nine Ukrainian soldiers killed and nine wounded, and 25 separatists killed in clashes near Svitlodarsk, close to Debaltseve, in fighting which started 18 Dec. Govt and separatists 21 Dec agreed indefinite ceasefire to start 24 Dec; sides traded accusations that other had violated ceasefire. NATO Sec Gen Jens Stoltenberg 7 Dec called for continued diplomatic pressure and sanctions on Russia until it respects Feb 2015 Minsk Agreement; cited “massive increase in ceasefire violations” in east, hundreds of explosions some involving heavy weapons banned under Minsk. UN human rights office report 8 Dec said civilians in east facing human rights abuses, “serious lack of security”. EU leaders 15 Dec agreed to extend sanctions against Russia over Ukraine for another six months. U.S. 20 Dec introduced expanded list of Russian individuals under sanctions. UNGA 19 Dec passed resolution recognising Crimea as “temporarily occupied” by Russia, condemning abuses and discrimination against Crimean Tatars and ethnic Ukrainians in Crimea. U.S. congress 8 Dec passed defence bill including $350mn military and security assistance for Ukraine, authorising supply of lethal weaponry; funds partly contingent on Kyiv addressing corruption and waste in military. Bill also bans military-to-military contact between U.S. and Russia. President Poroshenko 29 Dec said Russian security services “directly or indirectly” waging cyberwar against Ukrainian state institutions. Kyiv 18 Dec announced it would nationalise country’s largest bank, PrivatBank, in move praised by EU. Parliament 21 Dec passed long-delayed 2017 budget, keeping deficit at 3% of GDP in line with IMF guidelines. Rare signs of dissent in separatist entities LNR and DNR: former LNR leader Valery Bolotov 10 Dec criticised LNR’s top leader Igor Plotnitsky, linking him to assassination of most of entity’s key military commanders. In DNR, former leader Alexander Khodakovsky 6 Dec criticised DNR leaders’ corruption, incompetence and abuses in series of media interviews.

OSCE and Ukraine 11 Nov reported increased clashes in east; came after Russian detention of several alleged Ukrainian saboteurs in Crimea early month; Kyiv said allegations fabricated. Ukraine 20 Nov detained two Russian servicemen it said had crossed into Ukrainian-controlled territory from Crimea, in move described by Russia as “illegitimate provocation”. Ukraine late Nov notified Russia of air-to-air combat missile test over Russian-occupied Crimea region planned for 1-2 Dec; Russia condemned planned test, Kyiv said it will be conducted in Ukrainian airspace. FMs of Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France met in Minsk 29 Nov to discuss implementation of Feb 2015 Minsk Agreement, and Minsk roadmap; no progress. Thousands joined demonstrations in Kyiv 21 Nov marking three years since start of Euromaidan protests that culminated in ouster of former president Yanukovych and Russian annexation of Crimea; some clashes with security forces reported. Hundreds protested over economic hardship 15 Nov. Former Georgian President Saakashvili, now a Ukrainian citizen who PM Poroshenko appointed to be governor of Odessa region in May 2015, resigned 7 Nov, citing top level govt corruption and failure to enact reforms. Subsequently launched New Forces political movement, called for early parliamentary elections, reportedly attracting 1,000 supporters at rally in Kyiv 27 Nov. Visiting IMF mission 18 Nov reported signs of economic recovery but said it depends on ambitious reforms, particularly to fight corruption. U.S. electoral victory of Donald Trump, who previously suggested he may take more conciliatory approach to Russia and recognise its 2014 annexation of Crimea, raised deep concerns in Ukraine; Poroshenko spoke with Trump mid-month, 24 Nov claimed Ukraine has strong bipartisan support in U.S.. EU foreign policy chief Mogherini 13 Nov said EU will not change its stance on Russia’s annexation of Crimea. European Commission President Juncker speaking at EU-Ukraine summit 24 Nov said final deal on visa liberalisation for Ukraine likely by year-end. EU and U.S. both imposed sanctions during Nov on six additional Russian state duma deputies from Crimea.

German, French, Ukrainian and Russian presidents met in Berlin under Normandy format for first time in a year 19-20 Oct; announced plans to draw up roadmap to carry out Feb 2015 Minsk agreement, but confirmed that order in which steps of Minsk agreement are implemented would not change. Also discussed zones of disengagement in east. As efforts to separate troops on front line continued substantial exchanges of fire continued, including around industrial town Avdiivka and near Mariupol; Kyiv 28 Oct reported one serviceman killed in fighting, while separatist and Russian news agencies reported several separatist fighters and three civilians killed in fighting late month. In Kyiv, creation of new National Corps party mid-Oct from radical nationalist Azov military battalion was celebrated by veterans marching through city on “Defenders Day” annual holiday; National Corps party’s leader is first Azov commander Andrey Biletsky. Well-known Russian Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) commander Arsen Pavlov aka “Motorola” killed along with bodyguard 16 Oct by bomb in lift of his apartment building; DNR leadership blamed Ukrainian special forces, though some DNR figures questioned the claim. Ahead of 30 Oct deadline for electronic declarations of income by some 50,000 Ukrainian politicians and officials, reform faced ongoing resistance despite link to EU visa-free regime; President Poroshenko submitted his declaration of income on last day.

Minsk Contact Group 20 Sept published framework agreement on withdrawal of Ukrainian army and separatist forces from three small segments of line of separation; agreement states redeployment of troops/equipment will only take place after seven days of unbroken ceasefire in planned separation sites. However reports continue of regular exchanges of fire along many parts of 500-km line, despite two ceasefires being declared during month. Several combatants reported killed 13 Sept on both sides, including three Ukrainian troops and three separatist fighters. UN 15 Sept reported at least 9,640 killed in conflict; 66% increase in civilian casualties in east May-Aug compared with previous three-month period. President Poroshenko 21 Sept met with U.S. VP Biden, who urged him to accelerate reforms to strengthen energy and justice sectors, and next day warned that failure to enact economic and political reform could undermine European support for Russian sanctions, scheduled for discussion by EU leaders in Oct. U.S. 1 Sept announced new round of sanctions targeting Russian individuals and companies involved in Russia’s intervention in Ukraine; EU ambassadors 7 Sept decided to extend similar sanctions. European Parliament’s Civil Liberties, Justice and Home Affairs committee 26 Sept backed proposal for visa-free travel for Ukraine. EU expressed concern over apparent moves by Ukrainian parliament to dilute effectiveness of electronic declarations of income, part of anti-corruption measures needed for visa liberalisation. U.S. 8 Sept announced agreement with Ukraine to deepen defence cooperation with appointment of U.S. special adviser to Ukraine’s defence minister. IMF 14 Sept approved delayed $1bn loan disbursement, reiterated call for progress on reforms. Several senior LNR officials arrested during Sept for alleged complicity in Aug coup plot in separatist entities. One suspect, former PM Gennadiy Tsypkalov, reported to have committed suicide in Ministry of State Security HQ. Donetsk separatist leader Alexander Zakharchenko 22 Sept reported DNR sent battalion of troops to LNR to reinforce LNR security. International investigation into 2014 downing of passenger airliner over Ukraine 28 Sept reported that missile was fired from territory controlled by Russian-backed separatists, and missile launcher brought into Ukraine from Russia. Rights groups reported intimidation of voters in Crimea ahead of 18 Sept Russian parliamentary elections.

Tensions increased between Kyiv and Moscow after Russian security forces in Crimea 10 Aug reported clash with alleged groups of Ukrainian state saboteurs planning attack on infrastructure; two elite Russian troops reported killed, seven alleged Ukrainian saboteurs captured. Russia accused Ukraine of state terrorism, PM Medvedev suggested severing diplomatic relations; President Putin said that in current situation Normandy Group consultations are “senseless”. However later in month Kremlin confirmed Putin would meet his French and German Normandy counterparts as planned early Sept, and Putin made clear he would not cut relations with Kyiv. Ukrainian President Poroshenko 17 Aug said he did not exclude possibility of military mobilisation in Ukraine if situation in eastern Ukraine deteriorated following Crimea incident, which he called fabricated. Russia announced major military exercises, including near Ukrainian border and around Crimean peninsula 25-31 Aug. Elsewhere clashes continued between Ukrainian forces and separatists with daily exchanges of small arms and heavy artillery fire, focused around heavily populated Zaitseve, Avdiivka and Mariinka in Donetsk region. Discussions in the Minsk format showed modest progress as Minsk Tripartite working group 26 Aug called for indefinite ceasefire on front line with Donbas starting 1 Sept. Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch 29 Aug announced release of thirteen civilians from Security Service of Ukraine (SBU)-run secret detention centre in Kharkiv who had allegedly been abducted and tortured. Luhansk and Donetsk separatist leaders Igor Plotnitsky and Alexander Zakharchenko both survived alleged assassination attempts during month. IMF again delayed release of third $1.7bn loan tranche as Kyiv lagged in reform efforts.

Ceasefire between Ukrainian forces and separatists barely holding across parts of 500km front line, with June worst month for military casualties in a year, including seven soldiers killed 19 July. Fighting centred around Donetsk’s Avdiivka, Marinka, Horlivka, also heavy shelling in govt-controlled Mariupol. UN Human rights chief 14 July report criticised “rampant impunity” on both sides for killings in east, called for accountability to deal with rights abuses and so-called detainee “exchange fund” mechanism allegedly created by Ukrainian security services; joint Amnesty International/Human Rights Watch delegation accused both sides of torture and arbitrary, secret detention of civilians. Heads of self-proclaimed separatist republics again postponed local elections from 24 July to 6 Nov. Parliamentary Speaker Andriy Parubiy 4 July again cast doubt on possibility of decentralisation for east, said terms can only be discussed once area is secure and when paragraph giving region “special status” is removed from bill on decentralisation. Belarussian journalist Pavel Sheremet killed in car bomb in central Kyiv 20 July; perpetrator, motive unknown. Prosecutor General Yury Lutsenko 25 July announced deputy head of National Police arrested for illegally organising surveillance of Sheremet and his companion. Former prisoner of war and popular parliamentary deputy Nadezhda Savchenko made statements in interview broadcast 21 July calling for Ukraine to “ask forgiveness” to people of Donbas, called for Kyiv to speak directly to separatist leaders and said she is ready to engage in dialogue; in media interview said she can and “must” become president; interior ministry official called her “Trojan horse” infiltrated by Moscow. President Poroshenko suffered setbacks 17 July in by-elections, which saw Yulia Timoshenko’s Batkivshchyna party gain two new representatives in parliament; party reportedly planning alliance with Opposition Bloc. 8-9 July NATO summit in Warsaw pledged solidarity and aid package to Ukraine and agreed to new deployments in Eastern Europe.

Efforts to move Minsk peace process forward remained stalled despite new visit to Kyiv and Moscow by U.S. Asst Sec State Victoria Nuland; no progress reported. Fighting continued in east with more targeted artillery attacks and intensifying clashes over course of month, and increasing casualties; senior Ukrainian military official 16 June CrisisWatch N°155 International Crisis Group, 1 July 2016 Page 18 reported 25 troops killed during month. OSCE 22 June urged both sides to investigate ceasefire violations. Russia 14 June extradited two Ukrainian political prisoners; Ukraine reciprocated freeing two separatists. In Kyiv, opposition appeared to be gaining momentum, particularly oligarch-supported Opposition Bloc which seeks to break deadlock in east (where high level supporters have major industrial assets) and reportedly stepped up contacts with Kremlin in recent weeks. Self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic 24 June adopted law on nationalisation of all Ukrainian property on its territory, including privately-owned major industrial plant, banks, railroad system. PM Groysman expressed regret over result of UK’s 23 June EU referendum amid fears that “Brexit” could derail EU support for sanctions against Russia and EU visa liberalisation process for Ukraine.

Russia 25 May unexpectedly released Nadezhda Savchenko, Ukrainian military officer who had volunteered for duty in east and was captured and sentenced to 22 years for murder on charges she denied; Ukraine released two captured Russian paramilitary troops in return. Savchenko’s release was facilitated by Ukrainian-Russian businessman Viktor Medvedchuk. Kyiv proclaimed Savchenko Hero of Ukraine; Savchenko announced plans to return to parliament, where she is member of Yulia Timoshenko’s Batkivshchyna party – currently rising in polls – and member of defence committee; 27 May said she is ready to become president if Ukrainians want her. Poroshenko’s personal approval ratings currently at 10%. Several Ukrainian oligarchs and senior members of Opposition Bloc, notably Oleg Boyko, reported to be working with Poroshenko and Russian President Putin to find way forward for stalled Minsk peace process. Poroshenko further consolidated his power with appointment of close ally Yury Lutsenko as prosecutor general 12 May. Immediately prior to approving Lutsenko, parliament passed law reducing qualifications for position in move which enraged reformers, although Opposition Bloc supported candidate. Day after appointment, U.S. reported it would move forward with third loan guarantee agreement, which had been contingent on reforms. IMF 18 May reported progress on economy, also noted need for govt to boost reforms. Situation in the east remains tense; firefights along most of line of separation; Ukraine and separatists late May both admitted to fatalities, including at least seven Ukrainian servicemen 24 May, several more in following days; separatists 29 May reported two fighters killed. Russian, Ukrainian, German and French leaders 24 May discussed approaches to resolving conflict. UN Subcommittee on Prevention of Torture delegation cut short its visit after being denied access to parts of country by Ukrainian State Security Service.

Evidence emerged that conflict in east more intense than widely reported, with sustained exchanges of fire – including infantry weapons plus heavier cannon and artillery – taking place daily, and both separatist and Ukrainian military sources reporting heavy casualties, including three Ukrainian soldiers killed in mortar attack in Mayorsk near Donetsk 20 April. OSCE 9 April reported its monitors came under fire south of Donetsk; EU foreign policy chief Mogherini criticised increase in ceasefire violations. Parliament 14 April confirmed Vladimir Groysman, speaker and protégé of President Poroshenko, as PM by small margin; followed weeks of confusion and contentious debates; PM Yatsenyuk resigned 10 April. Groysman widely considered to be close to Ukraine’s oligarchs, appointed several unpopular figures in new cabinet. Fragility of PM’s parliamentary base demonstrated 14 April when he was unable to gather enough votes to put on parliament agenda controversial bill which would have reduced qualifications required of prosecutor general. EU late April announced Ukraine summit scheduled for May to be postponed until Sept to allow govt time to deliver on reform commitments; earlier announced it would offer visa-free travel to EU bloc for Ukrainians despite negative Dutch referendum result on EU Association Agreement with Ukraine. U.S. Asst Sec State Victoria Nuland visited Kyiv 25 April, seen as indicator of U.S. impatience with Poroshenko’s unwillingness to implement Minsk agreement; declared it is time to start “locking up” corrupt high officials. UN operations facing operational and reputational problems after 8 April arrest of UN Department of Security and Safety (DSS) officer in Donetsk, after DNR’s ministry of state security (MGB) identified him as former senior Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) paramilitary officer who was active in operations to suppress separatist movement early 2014.