Criminal violence continued at high levels amid rising discontent over govt handling of disappearances; tensions with U.S. simmered over fentanyl crisis.

Growing number of disappearances raised concerns. Though National Institute of Statistics and Geography report late July said 2022 marked lowest homicide rate in Mexico since 2017, rising number of disappearances underscored persistently high levels of insecurity. Notably, five youths 11 Aug disappeared from Lagos de Moreno city in Jalisco state (centre). Four days later, video surfaced in media allegedly showing victims being forced to kill one another; video reportedly attributed to MZ faction of Sinaloa Cartel, which is in competition with Jalisco Cartel New Generation for control of drug trafficking and fuel theft in area. Case triggered alarm, with opposition presidential candidate Xochitl Galvez 16 Aug announcing suspension of campaign activities for 24 hours. Head of National Search Commission 23 Aug resigned amid growing frustration with govt’s handling of disappearances, further underscored by late July decision of independent investigators to end probe into 2014 disappearance of students from Ayotzinapa college due to lack of collaboration from authorities. Some 200 protesters 30 Aug took to streets in Mexico City to mark International Day of the Disappeared, chanting “Where are our children” and calling for more concerted govt efforts to locate missing persons.

Attacks on state forces and civilians continued. Coahuila’s Prosecutor’s Office 1 Aug announced detention of “criminal leader” who could be responsible for series of late July attacks on police checkpoints in Coahuila state (north). Army 22 Aug said cartels are increasingly deploying roadside bombs and improvised explosive devices (IEDs), with 42 soldiers, police and suspects wounded by IEDs in 2023, up from 16 in 2022. Cartels in Michoacán state (centre) late Aug burnt trucks and shops and blocked roads, prompting govt 28 Aug to send 1,200 troops to quell uptick in violence.

Frictions with U.S. over fentanyl crisis simmered. Tensions between Mexico and U.S. over responsibility for fentanyl drug crisis continued to rise; U.S. officials blame Jalisco Cartel New Generation and Sinaloa Cartel for production and trafficking of fentanyl, while Mexican govt claim country is only transit route.

Criminal violence remained rampant, while President López Obrador’s attacks on opposition front runner in 2024 presidential poll prompted condemnation from electoral authorities.

Criminal groups stepped up attacks on state forces, increasingly using explosives. Gunmen 3 July shot at interior minister of Tamaulipas state (north) on main road, though official was unharmed. Criminal group Los Ardillos 10 July orchestrated thousands-strong protest in Chilpancingo city, Guerrero state (south west), over arrest of two of its members; protesters blocked main roads, forced their way into state legislature and took 13 police officers and officials hostage, released them following day. Several improvised explosive devices (IED) in Tlajomulco de Zúñiga city, Jalisco state (centre), 11 July killed four police officers and two civilians; Jalisco Cartel dominant in state has increasingly used IEDs in neighbouring Michoacán.

Attacks on journalists and disappearances continued. Police 8 July found body of Luis Martín Sánchez Iñiguez, local correspondent for La Jornada newspaper, in Huachines town, Nayarit state (west); unidentified armed group 15 July killed reporter Nelson Matus in Acapulco town, Guerrero. Meanwhile, civil society organisations from Caborca and Pitiquito municipalities reported 1-2 July clashes between Sinaloa Cartel and rival Caborca group resulted in at least 15 disappearances and three deaths; collective known as Madres Buscadoras, which searches for disappeared, 4 July said it had uncovered clandestine graves containing dozens of bodies in Tlajomulco de Zúñiga; another search collective 14-15 July found bodies in graves in Reynosa city, Tamaulipas; UN 27 July accused army of obstructing investigation into 2014 disappearance of students from Ayotzinapa teacher’s college.

López Obrador railed against key contender in 2024 presidential election. President López Obrador’s continued criticism of opposition candidate Xóchitl Gálvez in daily press conferences prompted National Electoral Institute 13 July to issue order prohibiting him from commenting on electoral matters. López Obrador next day accused electoral authorities of trying to “silence” him and reiterated claims he had gathered information about public contracts awarded to Gálvez, saying he would seek judicial investigation.

Criminal violence displaced thousands as rival groups vied for territory, authorities brought charges against soldiers accused of extrajudicial killing and ruling party began preparations for 2024 presidential poll.

Rampant insecurity displaced thousands. After 1,500 security forces late May deployed to Chiapas state (south) amid fighting between groups associated with Sinaloa and Jalisco cartels, National Guard 1 June said situation was under control; activists, however, continued to warn that Chiapas is on brink of civil war as hostilities displaced hundreds. In Michoacán state (west), fighting from 9 June onward between Jalisco and Knights Templar criminal groups over territory in Apatzingán municipality displaced at least 1,000; gunmen 29 June killed former self- defence group leader Hipólita Mora in La Ruana town, with reports Jalisco cartel may be responsible. In Sinaloa state (west), supposed Sinaloa cartel members 11 June killed two soldiers during confrontation in Culiacán municipality. Insecurity expected to escalate as 2024 elections edge closer.

Soldiers accused of extrajudicial killing in Tamaulipas. Ministry of Defence 10 June announced charges against 16 soldiers after media outlets 6 June released video showing soldiers apparently extrajudicially killing five alleged unarmed gang members in Nuevo Laredo city, Tamaulipas state (north) in May. López Obrador 7 June said “apparent execution” and other such cases would no longer go unpunished under his govt. Govt 26 June announced arrest of former head of federal anti- kidnapping unit over 2014 disappearance of 43 students from Ayotzinapa teacher’s college.

Election preparations heated up. Ruling MORENA party 11 June approved rules for process to select candidate for June 2024 presidential election. Six candidates have registered for participation and left their current posts for campaign 19 June-16 Aug; vote will take place 28 Aug-3 Sept. In what many considered test ahead of presidential poll, MORENA’s candidate 4 June won governorship of State of Mexico (centre), which opposition PRI had controlled for 94 years; PRI defeated MORENA in Coahuila state (north). Meanwhile, Supreme Court 22 June overturned key part of MORENA’s sweeping electoral bill.

Supreme Court struck down parts of govt electoral reform, criminal violence continued, and U.S. ended pandemic-era border policy.

Court invalidated parts of govt electoral reform. Supreme Court 8 May declared unconstitutional parts of govt’s Plan B electoral reform that, among other things, would reduce budget and power of country’s election authority; court said ruling Morena party had pushed plan through without due legislative process, such as proper debate. President López Obrador afterward accused court of undermining separation of powers and of serving elite interests, 17 May called for judges to be appointed by popular vote. Meanwhile, media outlet Latinus 2 May claimed associates of López Obrador’s sons had received public contracts worth $20mn and positions within federal institutions without fulfilling legal requirements; López Obrador 4 May denied allegations.

Criminal violence continued. In central-eastern Hidalgo state, unknown assailants 14 May killed six in Atotonilco de Tula municipality, area contested by rival criminal groups; in central-eastern Puebla state, unknown gunmen 23 May shot dead journalist Marco Aurelio Ramírez in Tehuacán municipality. In central San Luis Potosí state, presumed Gulf Cartel members 15 May kidnapped 50 migrants near Matehuala city and demanded ransom. In north-eastern Tamaulipas state, shootout between Gulf Cartel and opposing groups, including Jalisco cartel, 15-16 May left at least 19 dead in Méndez municipality. Also in Tamaulipas, shootout between security forces and members of local criminal group 29 May left ten dead on road connecting Nuevo León and Laredo cities. In north-western Sinaloa state, security forces 13 May arrested Héctor Elías Flores Aceves, Sinaloa cartel’s lieutenant in Quintana Roo state, in Guamúchil municipality.

U.S. ended controversial pandemic-era border policy. U.S. 11 May ended Trump-era Title 42 provision that allowed U.S. authorities to turn away undocumented migrants at U.S.-Mexico border by citing pandemic-related concerns. Under new policy, U.S. can expel migrants who arrive irregularly; FM Marcelo Ebrard next day said Mexico would limit number of daily deportations from U.S. to 1,000.

Supreme Court ruled National Guard’s militarisation unconstitutional, criminal violence persisted, and Lopez Obrador protested U.S. “interference” in efforts to tackle fentanyl trafficking.

Mexico’s top court ruled law shifting National Guard to army unconstitutional. Supreme Court 18 April declared President López Obrador’s 2022 transfer of National Guard to Ministry of Defence unconstitutional, saying 2019 constitutional reform defined National Guard as “civilian police body”; in plenary session two days later, Court gave govt until 1 Jan 2024 to reintegrate National Guard into Ministry of Public Security. López Obrador 19 April said ruling was politically motivated and vowed to present new constitutional reform in Sept 2024 allowing National Guard to operate under Ministry of Defence’s command. Meanwhile, López Obrador 28 April backed proposal introduced day prior by Senate leader Alejandro Armenta to scrap Institute for Access to Information and Data Protection, responsible for processing public information requests.

Criminal violence continued, individuals detained over fire at migration centre. In Zacatecas state, shootout between security forces and alleged members of local criminal group 11 April left eight criminals dead in Pánuco municipality. In central Michoacán state, shootout between army and local criminal group 24 April left one soldier and six civilians dead in Ciudad Hidalgo municipality. In central Jalisco state, authorities 30 April arrested Rodrigo Páex Quintero, nephew of Sinaloa Cartel founder Caro Quintero. Meanwhile, authorities 16 April detained head of National Migratory Institute in Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua state, in connection with fire at detention centre 27 March that killed 40 migrants; authorities 25 April charged head of immigration agency Francisco Garduño over incident.

28 Sinaloa cartel members indicted in U.S. fentanyl investigation. U.S. Justice Department 14 April announced indictments against 28 alleged members of Sinaloa Cartel’s Chapitos faction, which is accused of fentanyl production and trafficking into U.S. U.S. said its Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) had infiltrated group without Mexican authorities’ knowledge, despite 2020 law prohibiting foreign agents from operating on Mexican soil without govt’s approval; López Obrador 17 April condemned DEA’s “abusive and prepotent interference”.

Senate set up commission to monitor military’s public security role amid accusations of misconduct, violence persisted at high levels, and President López Obrador sparred with U.S. lawmakers.

Lawmakers established commission to oversee military’s role in public security. Senate 15 March formed commission tasked with monitoring armed forces’ participation in public security tasks. Action comes after evidence of military wrongdoing surfaced. Notably, several media outlets 7 March published leaked military intelligence documents showing security forces illegally spied on human rights activists using Pegasus spyware; President López Obrador 10 March rejected accusations of espionage and spoke instead of “intelligence activities”. Interior ministry’s sub-secretary for human rights 15 March said five men killed late Feb by soldiers in Nuevo Laredo city, Tamaulipas state, were “executed”. Meanwhile, Supreme Court 24 March temporarily suspended parts of López Obrador’s electoral reform bill, including planned cuts to National Electoral Institute’s budget.

Criminal violence remained rampant, fire at migrant detention centre killed scores. In central Tamaulipas state, suspected members of Gulf Cartel 3 March kidnapped four U.S. citizens and killed two of them in Matamoros city; cartel 9 March handed over five men allegedly responsible and publicly apologised. In San Luis Potosí state, also in centre, shootout between security forces and members of local criminal group 9 March left one soldier and six criminals dead in Villa de Ramos municipality. Authorities 7-10 March reported disappearance of eight women in Celaya town. In central Mexico state, shootout between police and alleged members of Jalisco cartel 17 March left three police officers and one cartel member dead. In Ciudad Juárez city, fire 27 March in migrant detention centre killed 39; authorities 30 March arrested five for alleged role in incident.

López Obrador clashed with U.S. senators over calls for military action. Former U.S. Attorney General Bill Barr 2 March published op-ed in news outlet The Wall Street Journal calling for U.S. military action in Mexico, while U.S. Republican senators 8 March called for designation of Mexican criminal groups as foreign terrorist organisations, among other heavy-handed measures. López Obrador 9, 13 March condemned calls for foreign intervention and pointed out that U.S. bears some responsibility for violence in Mexico due to high demand for drugs.

Lawmakers passed controversial electoral reform bill, criminal violence remained high and U.S. court convicted former security secretary for accepting cartel bribes.

Lawmakers voted in favour of controversial electoral reform. National Electoral Institute (INE) 1 Feb filed constitutional challenge to govt’s “Plan B” electoral reform before Supreme Court, saying it will prevent INE from fulfilling its role as election watchdog by reducing its budget and size, softening penalties for electoral wrongdoing and allowing candidates to use public funds in election campaigns. Opposition parties PAN, PRI and PRD have also filed constitutional complaints since ruling Morena party approved reform in Dec 2022. Senate 22 Feb voted 72-50 in favour, however; thousands 26 Feb took to streets in Mexico City to protest reform.

Criminal violence, particularly targeting state officials, remained high. In central Michoacán state, soldiers 4 Feb killed two men in shootout in San Juan Parangaricutiro municipality. In north-eastern Nuevo León state, unknown gunmen 9 Feb shot dead three police officers in Salinas Victoria municipality; 66 police officers have been killed in 2023 so far, 61 per cent more than same period in 2022. In southern Quintana Roo state, authorities 11 Feb found bodies of four employees from Solidaridad municipality’s prosecutor’s office; victims had been tortured and killed in Playas del Carmen town. In north-western Baja California state, unknown gunmen 21 Feb shot dead journalist Araujo Ochoa in Encenada municipality. Meanwhile, in Tamaulipas state, security forces 26 Feb reportedly killed five unarmed civilians in Nuevo Laredo city; local human rights group next day called killings extrajudicial executions and filed complaint with Office of Attorney General.

U.S. court convicted García Luna of accepting bribes from Sinaloa cartel. U.S. court 21 Feb convicted former Public Security Secretary and war-on-drugs architect Genaro García Luna for accepting millions of dollars in bribes from Sinaloa Cartel to help shield group from capture.

Criminal violence remained high, govt appointed military officer for key role in public security apparatus, and U.S. and Mexico struck migration agreement.

Scores of security personnel killed amid high levels of violence. In north-western Sinaloa state, federal forces 5 Jan captured Ovidio Guzmán, leader of a Sinaloa Cartel faction and son of infamous drug trafficker “El Chapo” Guzmán, in Jesús Maria village; operation left at least 29 people dead, including ten military officers. In apparent bid to secure Guzmán’s release, cartel members same day set fire to shops and vehicles in area and shot at passenger plane in Culiacán airport. In northern Chihuahua state, leader of Los Mexicles criminal group, Ernesto Alberto Piñón de la Cruz, 1 Jan set off mutiny in Ciudad Juárez prison that left 17 people dead, including ten prison officers; he and 29 others escaped. Police 5 Jan killed Piñón in shootout in Ciudad Juárez. In central Mexico State, unknown gunmen 24 Jan killed seven people at gathering in Chimalhuacán municipality. In central Zacatecas state, unknown gunmen 28 Jan killed seven in bar in Jerez municipality. Violence targeting journalists also persisted. Notably, in north-western Sonora state, unknown gunmen 1 Jan shot at reporter Omar Castro.

Authorities drew criticism for further militarisation of public security. President López Obrador 16 Jan appointed former army general and commander of National Guard, Luis Rodríguez Bucio, as new sub-secretary of public security, renewing criticism against govt for entrusting military officers with civilian tasks. Supreme Court 24 Jan upheld controversial article of National Law on Registration of Detentions, which allows armed forces to make civilian arrests without informing police or public.

In other important developments. Mexico and U.S. 5 Jan announced agreement under which U.S. will accept 30,000 migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela; Mexico will accept 30,000 people from same nations having crossed, or tried to cross, U.S. border illegally each month. Trial of Genaro García Luna 16 Jan commenced in New York, U.S.; García Luna, public security secretary and chief war-on-drugs architect under former President Felipe Calderón, is accused of facilitating Sinaloa Cartel’s drug shipments into U.S. and helping group evade capture.

Criminal violence remained high, authorities made further progress on controversial electoral reforms, and local protests over planned hydraulic works turned violent.

Criminal violence persisted at high levels. In central Zacatecas state, unknown gunmen 6 Dec shot dead police officer in Guadalupe municipality. Also in Zacatecas, unknown assailants 19 Dec killed two police officers in separate events in state capital, Zacatecas city, bringing number of police officers killed nationwide in 2022 to 389. In central Michoacán state, authorities 4 Dec arrested alleged regional leader of Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), known as “El Panther”, in Uruapan city. In central Jalisco state, authorities 21 Dec captured Antonio Oseguera, brother of CJNG leader Nemesio Oseguera, in Tlajomulco de Zúñiga municipality. In central Mexico state, armed confrontation between security forces and suspected members of criminal group La Familia Michoacana 27 Dec left three dead. In southern Guerrero state, members of La Familia Michoacana 10 Dec gathered residents of El Durazno locality in Coyuca de Catalán municipality in a primary school and killed seven of them. Meanwhile, NGO Reporters Without Borders 14 Dec identified Mexico as most dangerous country for journalists for fourth consecutive year.

Chamber of Deputies approved controversial electoral reform. After 6 Dec rejecting electoral reform proposed in April by President López Obrador, Chamber of Deputies 14 Dec approved so-called “Plan B”, which amends six secondary electoral laws and reduces structure and budget of National Electoral Institute (INE). INE board members same day issued statement pointing out that reform will jeopardise establishment of polling stations, vote counting, timely monitoring of radio and television stations, and oversight of political party activities and election campaigns.

Local protests erupted over hydraulic works. Residents of Xochimilco and Milpa Alta municipalities 2 Dec blocked roads in Mexico City to protest hydraulic works, which they said started without first consulting with local communities; police same day attempted to forcibly unblock roads, leading to violent confrontations that left over 20 people injured. Protesters 9 Dec lifted blockades after local govt agreed to suspend drainage works.

Criminal violence remained high, govt efforts to push through legislation extending military control over policing met resistance, and opposition against electoral reform mounted.

Lethal violence remained high. In central Guanajuato state, unknown assailants 6 Nov killed mother looking for her missing son in Abasolo city, becoming fifth volunteer search activist to be murdered this year. Also in Guanajuato, arrest of a Santa Rosa de Lima cartel leader sparked wave of violence, leaving nine dead in Apaseo el Alto municipality. In Tarimoro municipality, unknown gunmen 22 Nov shot dead four family members of local police officer. In central Zacatecas department, unknown gunmen 24 Nov shot dead National Guard coordinator José Silvestre Urzúa in Pinos municipality. In eastern Veracruz state, unknown assailants 22 Nov killed journalist Pedro Pablo Kumul in regional capital Xalapa. In central Tamaulipas state, shoot-out following arrest of criminal leader 28 Nov prompted schools and public transport to shut down. In central Jalisco state, unknown gunmen 29 Nov shot dead two civilians in their home in Tlajomulco de Zúñiga municipality.

Govt efforts to deepen militarisation of public security faced headwinds. Senate 9 Nov approved constitutional reform allowing armed forces to continue performing domestic law enforcement duties until 2028, after consent of over 20 state legislatures. Still, govt’s efforts to militarise public security stalled after federal judges in Guanajuato city and Mexico City 15 Nov granted provisional suspension against integration of National Guard into ministry of defence, arguing that initiative violates constitution; planned integration had prompted criticism from civil society observers who accused President López Obrador of breaking campaign promise to keep National Guard a civilian institution.

Proposed electoral reforms sparked backlash. López Obrador’s proposed electoral reforms, which envisage an overhaul of National Electoral Institute (INE) and reduction in number of legislators in Congress and Senate, prompted thousands 13 Nov to protest in over 16 states amid fears reforms could threaten independence and impartiality of electoral system. Despite these calls, López Obrador sought to advance proposals, with Chamber of Deputies 28 Nov approving reform in first debate. Meanwhile, López Obrador 27 Nov led march in Mexico City in response to opposition protests.