CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) 2 March pub- lished report saying country is suffering “severe crisis of violence and impunity”; highlighted issue of forced disappearances carried out with “participation, acquiescence or tolerance” of state agents. Govt rejected findings, said problems were “localised”. Speaking at govt-sponsored debate on marijuana use, secretary of govt 8 March said war on drugs based on bad diagnosis, poor strategy and led to major escalation of violence. Secretary of Defence Salvador Cienfuegos 16 March said armed forces should not have entered fully in fight with drug traffickers, said military not prepared to carry out police functions. Guerrero state governor and member of ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) Héctor Astudillo 11 March proposed legalising opium poppy farming for medical use and promoting alternative development by funding roads and crop substitution.
Independent forensic team 9 Feb said physical evidence from Sept 2014 disappearance of 43 students in Ayotzinapa did not support federal prosecutors’ conclusion that students’ bodies were incinerated there; echoes findings of previous Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) report. Same team 21 Feb alleged federal prosecutors were leaking misinformation, blocking their access to important testimony and evidence. Murders and disappearances reported in Veracruz state throughout month including 8 Feb discovery of two bodies of men reportedly abducted by state police weeks earlier and 9 Feb discovery of body of journalist Anabel Flores Salazar. Three other young people remain missing after state police allegedly turned them over to Jalisco Nueva Generación drug gang in Tierra Blanca; town’s police chief and six other officers still in custody following mid-Jan arrest in connection with case. Riot erupted 11 Feb at overcrowded Topo Chico state penitentiary in Monterrey Nuevo León state, some 49 prisoners killed; Governor Jaime Rodríguez attributed riot to rival factions linked to Gulf and Zeta cartels.
Marines 8 Jan arrested Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán in town of Los Mochis, Sinaloa state, following his July 2015 escape from maximum security prison. Officials 22 Jan said legal process underway to extradite Guzmán to U.S., where he faces drug and murder charges. Violence and kidnappings in Guerrero state persisted: gunmen 9 Jan attacked group in Arcelia, two killed and nineteen kidnapped; gunmen 11 Jan attacked school in Ajuchitlán, four teachers and director kidnapped. Authorities 15 Jan said 21 victims had been released, two died. Gunmen 2 Jan killed Temixco Mayor Gisala Mota Ocampo in Morelos state, hours after she took office; state officials blamed “Los Rojos” gang operating in neighbouring Guerrero, with whom she allegedly refused to make a deal. Police 31 Jan arrested 24 members of Sinaloa drug cartel in city of Sonoyta, Sonora state during joint border operation with U.S. Spanish police 15 Jan arrested former governor and ex-president of ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) Humberto Moreira, who faces charges of money laundering and embezzlement in U.S.
Prosecutors in Guerrero state 15 Dec reported discovery of some seventeen bodies in ravine. Govt early-Dec deployed about 200 additional police to Tierra Caliente region in NW Guerrero in attempt to control rising violence. Group of experts appointed by Inter-American Commission on Human Rights to review investigation into Sept 2014 student disappearance 7 Dec said satellite photos appear to contradict prosecutors’ claim that bodies of missing students were incinerated at municipal dump. Court 31 Dec charged Cesar Penaloza Santana, former mayor of Cocula town (Jalisco state) linked to students’ disappearance, of ties to organised crime. President Peña Nieto 14 Dec sent legislation to Senate to harmonise and toughen sanctions for crime of disappearance and torture; proposal would establish national protocols requiring police and other officials to mobilise searches within hours of reported disappearance. Govt 22 Dec issued first licenses permitting cultivation and possession of marijuana for personal use; only four plaintiffs who won favourable Supreme Court ruling eligible for permits.
Federal investigators early-Nov reportedly found five bodies in three unmarked graves near Carrizalillo, Guerrero state, where criminal gangs compete for control of extortion and kidnapping rackets. Discovery follows interior minister’s 27 Oct announcement on new security strategy for Guerrero state, including new anti-kidnapping unit for Acapulco and construction of highway connecting coast to isolated states with strong criminal activity. “Narcomanta” (narco banner) draped from pedestrian bridge over highway in Tlalpan borough of Mexico City 6 Nov threatening more “hangings” if police did not stop protecting rival criminal groups, amid fears powerful criminal groups may now be operating in capital. Supreme Court criminal chamber 4 Nov ruled individuals should be allowed to grow and distribute marijuana for personal use; govt said it will respect ruling, called for national debate on drug use.
Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) 2 Oct called for appointment of special prosecutor to take over missing students case; said case reflected “pattern of human rights violations”. UN rights chief Zeid 7 Oct highlighted widespread impunity in country, urged govt to take urgent action to investigate rights violations. Govt 20 Oct reached agreement with IACHR experts to extend their mandate and expand cooperation: case to be transferred to new team of prosecutors in human rights office who will cooperate with experts on planning investigation and opening new lines of inquiry. Govt also promised to coordinate with experts on new forensic study of dump where students’ bodies were allegedly incinerated. Escaped prisoner Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzmán reportedly narrowly escaped marines during 6-9 Oct manhunt on border between Durango and Sinaloa states; hundreds of residents reportedly fled military operations; authorities deny human rights violations. Prosecutors charged nine people for aiding Guzmán’s July escape from prison, including pilot who allegedly flew him to his home state Sinaloa, and defence lawyer accused of planning scheme.
Interdisciplinary Group of Independent Experts (GIEI), appointed by Inter-American Commission of Human Rights (IACHR) to monitor investigation into Sept 2014 disappearance of 43 students in Iguala, issued report 6 Sept finding errors, omissions and inconsistencies in federal investigation; called on govt to pursue new lines of investigation and continue working to clarify students’ fate. Experts rejected federal prosecutors’ assertion that criminals working with local police killed and incinerated students at local dump; cited multiple flaws in investigation; also presented evidence federal military and police aware of attacks on students but failed to intervene. Federal official 14 Sept said govt would ask IACHR to extend GIEI mandate for six months; 24 Sept said govt would appoint a special prosecutor to investigate cases of disappearances throughout country, but refuses to consider all international commission prosecutors. Federal police 16 Sept captured Gildardo López, alias “El Gil”, senior member of Guerreros Unidos gang that allegedly collaborated with municipal police to kidnap students; López alleged to have ordered students’ killing and incineration.
President Peña Nieto 27 Aug reshuffled cabinet, replacing six ministers, including national security commissioner. Midway through his six-year term, President’s approval ratings continued to drop as govt grapples with stagnating economy, conflict of interest scandals and high rates of regional violence. Interdisciplinary Group of Experts (GIEI), appointed by govt and Inter-American Commission for Human Rights (IACHR) to monitor Sept 2014 disappearance of 43 students in Iguala, 17 Aug said govt denied its request to interview military personnel; also noted mishandling and destruction of evidence. Federal judge 18 Aug sentenced army second lieutenant to over 30 years’ prison for a forced disappearance, marking first time a military official has been sentenced for this crime. Prosecutors 6 Aug charged suspect for 31 July killing of photojournalist Rubén Espinosa in Mexico City. Investigators in case facing criticism for allegedly dismissing political motivation for murder; 500 journalists, writers and advocates 15 Aug sent open letter to President Peña Nieto demanding thorough investigation into Espinosa’s death. Police data showed 2015 increase in homicide rate in Guerrero state, with highest murder rate in 2014: 943 murders reported in first half of 2015, compared to 780 in first half of 2014.
Powerful drug trafficker Joaquín Guzmán, alias “El Chapo” escaped from federal maximum-security prison 11 July; prison director fired, federal court opened proceedings on three prison employees charged with aiding escape. Rights activists 2 July said army issued orders to “take down” presumed criminals in night-time operations; allegation raised further questions about June 2014 shooting of 22 suspected kidnappers in Tlatlaya municipality, Mexico state. International groups of experts appointed by Inter-American Commission for Human Rights, investigating Sept 2014 disappearance of 43 students, faulted govt for failing to provide access to military officers stationed in city of Iguala at time of abductions for investigation into disappearances. Attorney general’s office 26 July confirmed 129 bodies found in over sixty clandestine graves in Guerrero state following investigation into students’ disappearance.
Mid-term elections 7 June saw President Peña Nieto’s Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) maintain control of lower house along with Green Party allies. Independent candidate won a campaign for governor for the first time with victory of Jaime Rodriguez, “El Bronco”, in Nuevo Leon. Over twenty killed, including at least four candidates, in campaign-related violence, particularly acute in Guerrero state, where demonstrators burned ballots in two municipalities prior to vote, and one student was shot dead in Tlapa town on election day. Human rights groups 16 June reported that armed men attacked over 100 migrants late-May in Sonora state near U.S. border; at least thirteen escaped, others remain missing, authorities 2 June reportedly discovered three bodies. Rights groups 18 June denounced another attack on Central American migrants in southern state Veracruz; over 40 escaped, including one who had been shot.
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