Amid high levels of violence, govt continued deployment of National Guard (NG), controversial main instrument of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO)’s security plan. Rights groups remained concerned NG will further militarise public security with initial 70,000 officers coming from army and navy; members of Federal Police due to join NG protested against alleged labour rights abuses in transitioning to force, with group of officers 3-4 July blocking major road in capital Mexico City. Planned training for NG in human rights, agreed in April with UN human rights office, yet to take place despite deployment of forces; Guerrero and State of Mexico (south) authorities 16 July arrested three soldiers on charges of kidnapping, saying soldiers belonged to NG; AMLO said they had “not yet” been incorporated into force. Record levels of violence continued with authorities reporting 17,065 homicides Jan-June 2019, up from 16,585 same period in 2018. Armed group violence remained high with groups clashing with newly deployed NG units. On day of NG deployment to Tabasco (south), criminal group 1 July set vehicles on fire to block roads; Jalisco Cartel New Generation clashed with NG in shootout on border of Guanajuato and Michoacán states (centre) 8 July, injuring one member of NG. Amid focus on regional migration, U.S. President Trump announced negotiations on “Safe Third Country” agreement – which would require Central American migrants to seek asylum in Mexico, rather than continuing north to U.S. – would begin 22 July; FM Ebrard said govt will not enter negotiations “without express authorisation of Congress”. Finance Minister Carlos Urzúa 9 July resigned, saying conflicts of interest existed within AMLO administration and accusing senior govt members of nepotism.

High levels of violence continued amid competition between armed groups, while govt reached preliminary agreement with U.S. to increase anti-migration efforts. In Guanajuato state (centre) armed groups continued to compete over oil siphoning, leading to 23 murders 7-9 June. Heavy fighting also ongoing in Michoacán state (centre), with some twenty groups competing over criminal markets; convoy of two dozen vehicles supposedly belonging to Jalisco Cartel New Generation attacked police in Zamora, Michoacán late May, killing three and wounding ten. Targeted killings of journalists continued including journalist Norma Sarabia, shot dead in Huimanguillo, Tabasco (south) 11 June, seventh journalist killed in 2019; Sarabia had reportedly received threats for investigating police corruption. Govt and U.S. 7 June announced preliminary agreement on increasing anti-migration efforts: govt will deploy 6,000 National Guard, controversial main instrument of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s security plan, troops to Guatemala-Mexico border and agreed asylum seekers will remain in Mexico as claims are processed, while U.S. refrains from retaliatory economic measures; agreement to be reviewed within 45 days; rights groups criticised deal’s militarisation of border. Federal police 15 June pursued and shot vehicle refusing migration officials’ orders to stop in Veracruz state (Gulf coast); govt reported one woman killed and two men from El Salvador wounded.

Amid high levels of violence and concerns over militarisation of public security, National Guard (NG), controversial main instrument of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO)’s security plan, commenced operations. Govt deployed NG in municipalities of Minatitlán and Coatzacoalcos in Veracruz state (Gulf Coast), Salina Cruz in Oaxaca (south), Tijuana in Baja California (north) and Cancún in Quintana Roo (south east), amid reports of lack of cooperation between municipal, state and federal forces. NG due to be composed of army, navy and federal police, but navy and police rejected 10 May transfers of their officers citing lack of legal basis. Public security secretary Alfonso Durazo 17 May said deployment of NG would combine with investment in local and state police. Criminal group-related violence remained high; in Veracruz, armed attack on market in Coatepec killed five 17 May. As govt continued operations to curb oil siphoning, suspected siphoners 4 May killed one navy officer and injured three in attack in Xicotepec, Puebla (centre). Journalist Telésforo Santiago Enríquez murdered in San Agustín, Oaxaca 2 May and journalist Franciso Romero murdered in Playa del Carmen, Quintana Roo 16 May; eleven media professionals murdered since AMLO’s term began Dec 2018. Targeted killings of activists continued; indigenous activists José Lucio Bartolo Faustino and Modesto Verales Sebastián murdered in Chilapa, Guerrero (south) 5 May, and environmental activist Leonel Díaz Urbano murdered in Zacapoaxtla, Puebla 10 May. AMLO 7 May announced he would ask for U.S. payments to combat drug trafficking and organised crime to be rechannelled toward regional development to address root causes of insecurity and migration; U.S. President Trump 30 May announced 5% tariff on all goods from Mexico rising 5% each month until country curbs illegal migration.

Amid widespread concerns over govt’s militarisation of public security and record levels of violence, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) 11 April presented “retiring” army general Luís Rodríguez Bucio as head of new National Guard (NG), controversial main instrument of security plan, and announced NG’s core personnel will come from active army and navy groups. Controversial move drew widespread criticism and appeared to undermine Feb deal between govt and opposition defining NG as having “civilian character”. UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet 5-9 April visited Mexico, signed memorandum with govt establishing unspecified role of UN in human rights training for NG and promised UN would monitor NG’s human rights standards. AMLO 5 April reiterated govt’s priority would be tackling root causes of violence through economic and educational policies rather than fighting crime or drug trafficking groups. Over 11,000 murders officially recorded since AMLO took office in Dec 2018, higher rate than three preceding govts. Gang-related insecurity continued with criminal groups clashing with one another over control of territories. In Veracruz state (Gulf coast) – where fighting between at least six groups over control of extortion and kidnapping markets, trafficking routes and oil-siphoning has led to over 600 homicides since Dec – lawyer and activist Abiram Hernández was assassinated in Xalapa 30 March, while armed commando attack on party in Minatitlán killed thirteen people 19 April.  Alliance of criminal groups led by Jalisco Cartel New Generation (CJNG) clashed with another alliance in Parácuaro, Michoacán (centre) first week of April, displacing some 100 people, while violence continued in Guanajuato state (centre), area of competition over oil siphoning between criminal groups including CJNG and Lima Cartel. Police 22 April detained some 400 migrants from Central America near Pijijiapan town, Chiapas (south), in operation targeting migrant caravans attempting to reach U.S. border.

Amid record levels of violence, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO)’s National Peace and Security Plan to fight crime moved toward becoming law, though details on strategy and operations, transparency and accountability not yet announced. All state congresses by 14 March had given approval for constitutional reform that allows armed forces to remain active in public security for another five years and enables creation of National Guard, controversial main instrument of security plan; concerns remain over militarisation of public security. Criminal violence continued unabated, most prominently Jalisco Cartel New Generation (CJNG), which continues to push for expansion and territorial consolidation in centre of country, and was blamed for two high-profile incidents during month: 9 March attack on night club in Salamanca, Guanajuato state (centre), killing fifteen, and discovery of 27 bodies in Guadalajara, Jalisco (west) 14 March. CJNG also in violent competition with other armed groups including Sinaloa Cartel over smuggling routes in Tijuana, Baja California state (north) and against multiple groups for control of extortion, trafficking and oil-siphoning in Veracruz state (Gulf coast). Mexican NGO 12 March released report detailing Tijuana as world’s deadliest city, with Acapulco in Guerrero state (south) in second place. Attacks on security forces continued; in Tierra Blanca (centre), CJNG 14 March ambushed state police, killing one officer, and attacked state police HQ with grenades. Migrants travelling through Mexico on way to U.S. continued to face risks, particular in border state Tamaulipas, where around 20 migrants were kidnapped from bus outside San Fernando 7 March. Federal govt subsequently announced it had dismissed 30 local agents of National Migratory Institute, acknowledging corruption. Journalist Santiago Barroso murdered in San Luis Río Colorado, Sonora (north) 15 March, and journalist Omar Iván Camacho murdered in Salvador Alvarado, Sinaloa (north) 24 March, fifth killed in 2019.

Amid record levels of violence, public security secretary Alfonso Durazo 1 Feb presented National Public Security Strategy, which many fear will cement use of armed forces in public security, although it also contains commitment to maintain and strengthen municipal police forces. Senate 21 Feb approved bill limiting deployment of armed forces to five years and establishing National Guard – controversial main instrument of AMLO’s National Peace and Security Plan to fight crime and violence – as civilian-police institution under aegis of Public Security Secretary. Govt 1 Feb announced deployment of 1,800 army and federal police officers under banner of National Guard to violent neighbourhoods in city of Tijuana, Baja California state (north), which saw 2,518 homicides in 2018, 41% increase from 2017; 6 Feb announced deployment of 600 officers each to seventeen regions affected by rising homicide rates. Amid continued opposition to National Guard from civil society and experts, AMLO 18 Feb formalised end of all state financing for civil society bodies. Govt continued operations to curb oil siphoning, with over 2,400 troops now deployed to Guanajuato state (centre), area of competition over oil siphoning between criminal groups including Jalisco Cartel New Generation (CJNG) and Lima Cartel. Criminal group-related violence remained high, including attack by armed commando on bar in Cancún killing five, amid growing violent competition for extortion and drugs retail markets in this and other tourist hotspots in Quintana Roo (south east), where 2018 total homicides number (774) more than double that of 2017. Targeted killings of activists and journalists continued including journalist Jesús Eugenio Ramos, murdered in Emiliano Zapata, Tabasco (south) 9 Feb, and murder of indigenous environmental activist Samir Flores, in Amilcingo, Morelos (centre) 20 Feb. Interior ministry 4 Feb presented Plan for Attending to Victims of Disappearances, reporting total of 45,000 disappeared people and pledging $21mn for search and identification, and establishment of National Forensic Institute by July.

Govt 9 Jan signed bill creating new 60,000-strong National Guard, main instrument of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO)’s National Peace and Security Plan to fight crime and violence, which reached record levels in 2018. New force will be heavily reliant on military commanders and officers; civil society and experts early Jan decried plans, which they warn threaten to cement militarisation of public security, during audiences before Congress. Amid ongoing high rates of violence, National Public Security System 21 Jan announced 33,341 homicides in 2018, 15% increase on 2017 and highest figure since records began in 1997. Govt moved to curb oil siphoning, estimated to cause yearly govt losses of $3.3bn and fuel conflict between armed groups over its control and smuggling routes; govt late Dec deployed 7,000 officers, including military forces, to protect pipelines and shut worst affected ones, leading to gas shortages in eight states in north and centre of country, and take charge of facilities. Explosion at clandestine oil siphoning tap on pipeline in Tlahuelilpan, Hidalgo state (centre) killed some 114 people and injured 81 others; govt promised to clamp down further on siphoning. State oil company 29 Jan said fuel theft reduced by 65% since army deployed in Dec. Focus on oil siphoning also highlighted collusion between criminal groups and employees of state oil company PEMEX, with soldiers 7 Jan uncovering large pipeline supplying oil directly to gangs in Salamanca, Guanajuato state (centre). U.S. 24 Jan began implementation of policy forcing asylum seekers to wait in Mexico while applying for U.S. asylum; govt said it disagreed with U.S. “unilateral measure”.

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) assumed office 1 Dec amid concerns that National Peace and Security Plan announced in Nov will cement militarisation of public security. AMLO started implementing new federal organisational structure that will increase centralisation and presidential control of security through central coordinating body, one of his campaign promises; but under pressure from state governors, AMLO 5 Dec handed them powers to coordinate security provision in each state, despite his campaign promise that he would personally be in charge of deciding over and overseeing day-to-day security operations. Govt 15 Dec announced 2019 federal budget, with focus on social and economic developments over security operations. Criminal violence continued unabated; in Michoacán (centre), armed groups affiliated with Jalisco Cartel New Generation (CJNG) mid-Dec began offensive against opposing alliance of armed groups. In neighbouring Jalisco state, CJNG members 3 Dec ambushed state police in Huerta, killing six. CJNG 6 Dec denied carrying out late Nov grenade attack on U.S. consulate in Guadalajara, Jalisco state. Violence also increased in Guanajuato (centre) and Puebla (centre-south), where CJNG competes over oil siphoning markets; twenty people killed in Guanajuato 4 Dec. Central American migrants continued to travel through Mexico in efforts to reach U.S. and apply for asylum; group of masked men 8 Dec attacked 45 Guatemalan migrants in Coatzocoalcos, Veracruz , killing one, while two Honduran teenagers were reportedly murdered in Tijuana on U.S. border 15 Dec. U.S. and Mexico 19 Dec jointly announced $5.8bn in U.S. aid for Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador and $4.8bn for Mexico to stem illegal migration. Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras 1 Dec signed agreement for major development plan for Central America and southern Mexico aimed at slowing migration.

Incoming govt’s new National Peace and Security Plan prompted concerns it could further cement dependence of public security provision on armed forces, while violence perpetrated by small armed groups continued. Ahead of assuming office 1 Dec, President-elect López Obrador (AMLO) 14 Nov released National Peace and Security Plan including creation of National Guard formed by members of army, navy and federal police alongside 50,000 new recruits; division of country into 266 regions under operational command of armed forces; and stricter human rights training and supervision. AMLO 16 Nov announced he would seek constitutional changes to allow National Guard to control public security, after Supreme Court previous day declared 2017 Law of Internal Security unconstitutional for placing public security provision under control of armed forces. UN human rights representative and NGOs said plan would increase militarisation of public security and urged govt to reconsider. Security Plan also prioritises fight against corruption; shifts priorities away from combating drug trafficking groups head-on to crimes causing greater harm like extortion; and reformulating counter-narcotic efforts toward greater focus on social polices including helping public health efforts and combating drug use, potentially including decriminalisation of drugs. Violence continued across country, including clashes between criminal groups and targeted killings of politicians and indigenous land rights activists; clashes between rival gangs in municipality of Leonardo Barvo, Guerrero state (south) displaced some 2,000 people, some of whom were shot at while fleeing despite being accompanied by security forces, politicians and media. Some 5,000 Central American migrants and refugees in “caravans” seeking asylum in U.S. arrived in Tijuana, Baja California state (north west), where locals reportedly threw stones at them; U.S. border guards 25 Nov fired tear gas at around 500 migrants who tried to break through border at Tijuana. Tijuana mayor 23 Nov declared humanitarian crisis in town and asked for UN help. Group of 100 migrants disappeared in Veracruz 5 Nov, reportedly handed over by traffickers to criminal groups. Mexico, U.S. and Canadian leaders 30 Nov signed U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

Amid ongoing uncertainty over incoming govt’s policies for improving public security in line with campaign pledges, President-elect López Obrador (AMLO) 24 Oct outlined much-anticipated security plan, includes hiring of 50,000 new recruits for armed forces and Federal Police, and division of country into 265 regions, in each of which army, navy and police would work under sole command structure – apparently undermining campaign promise to demilitarise public security provision– but under stricter human rights supervision. Specifics of police reform not announced. AMLO also said govt would create truth commission to investigate 2014 disappearance of Ayotzinapa teaching college students. AMLO’s pick for public security secretary Alfonso Durazo 17 Oct said tasks of joint army-police forces would be 70% crime prevention and 30% “coercion”. Govt 8 Oct cancelled another five National Pacification and Reconciliation Forums due to security concerns. Army’s commander-in-chief 8 Oct stated he considered possible legalisation of poppy cultivation and processing for domestic pharmaceutical industry, as suggested by AMLO’s transition team, as potential way to reduce violence. Violence continued across country including clashes between criminal groups involved in drug trade and oil siphoning, targeted killings and femicides; 2018 on track to surpass 2017 as deadliest year for country, with 18,835 homicides registered Jan-Aug, representing 14.9% increase on same period 2017. Journalist Sergio Martínez killed 4 Oct in Tapachula, Chiapas state (south), eleventh journalist killed in 2018. At Guatemalan border in Chiapas, police in riot gear 19 Oct clashed with group of some 5,000 mainly Honduran migrants attempting to reach U.S. (see Honduras). U.S. 29 Oct announced deployment of some 5,000 troops to U.S.-Mexico border to prevent migrants’ entry. Govt 17 Oct said it would deport members of group entering illegally but AMLO same day said he would protect Central American trans-migrants (travelling through Mexico to U.S.) and provide Central American migrants with work visas. In 19 Oct meeting, U.S. Sec State Mike Pompeo and incoming FM Marcelo Ebrard pledged cooperation, including on economic development in Central America to address root causes for migration.