New govt passed its first laws including measures cutting privileges for previous legislators such as subsidised fuel, and other measures reflecting campaign promises for “republican austerity”; however President-elect López Obrador, who will be sworn into power 1 Dec, apparently backing away from key campaign promises to swiftly end drug war and remove armed forces from public security duties. Govt 19 Sept cancelled National Pacification and Reconciliation Forum in Veracruz state capital Xalapa (Gulf coast) planned for Oct due to security concerns; other forums went ahead including in Baja California state (north west) 11 Sept and Mexico City 14 Sept. Record levels of violence continued with 2018 on track to surpass 2017 as deadliest year; authorities reported 3,017 homicides in July, highest of any month on record and 40% increase in comparison with same month in 2017. Attacks on state forces continued in Tonalá, Jalisco state, just outside Guadalajara (west), operational centre of Cartel Jalisco New Generation (CJNG); govt data made public in Sept showed no member of CJNG was convicted between Sept 2017 and June 2018, despite it growing more than any other criminal group in previous five years. In other violence, three gunmen 14 Sept killed six at popular tourist site Garibaldi Plaza in Mexico City (centre) while three marines and two alleged criminal group members were killed in clash in Buenavista, Michoacán (west). In same region, heavy fighting between armed groups forced some people to leave their homes. Direct attacks on state forces, allegedly by criminal groups, continued with four police killed in ambush in Tonalá, Jalisco state 3 Sept, and military convoy attacked in Reynosa, Tamaulipas state (north) 6 Sept, shortly before visit of President Peña Nieto. Authorities 26 Sept placed entire police force under investigation in resort of Acapulco, Guerrero state (south), claiming drug traffickers had infiltrated force.

New govt of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) unveiled plans to tackle criminal and conflict-related violence, and from 7 Aug held first of series of regional National Pacification and Reconciliation Fora soliciting public opinion, with promise to design security and peacebuilding policies to be announced in Nov in strict adherence to demands voiced in meetings. Some participants already rejected request from govt to “forgive but not forget”, calling for “truth” including identification of whereabouts of disappeared, and punishment of perpetrators, including state forces. Church 16 Aug announced it would participate in fora. Congress in largest opium-producing state Guerrero (south) 18 Aug passed motion supporting legislation of poppy cultivation and calling on federal authorities to legislate; AMLO govt announced it would consider de-penalising poppy cultivation and processing for domestic pharmaceutical industry, pending UN approval, and aim to de-penalise marijuana production, sale and consumption to curb organised crime revenues. AMLO’s nominee for public security secretary 15 Aug said he expects better trained and paid police to take over security provision from army; military force to be used as last resort; that “going after kingpins” would be less of a priority than targeting gang financing; and that goal is 30-50% homicide reduction in three years. Other priorities include social and economic programs tackling root cause of organised crime, and reparations/support for victims. AMLO 1 Aug reiterated various federal institutions would be moved from capital to regions to stimulate regional growth; but some early AMLO appointments, including Manuel Bartlett, accused of previous corruption and implication in murder cases, as head of electricity commission, prompted criticism. High levels of criminal violence and conflict continued, with 2018 reportedly on course to be most violent year since records began in 1997. Security forces and crime groups, chiefly “Viagras”, clashed throughout month in Michoacán (west) during govt anti-gang “Operation Cleansing”, prompting backlash from group in form of road blocks using stolen and destroyed vehicles. Mexico and U.S. 27 Aug announced “preliminary agreement” in bilateral trade which alleviates fears of end of NAFTA trade agreement, but so far excludes Canada.

In 1 July elections, left-leaning Andrés Manuel López Obrador (known as AMLO) from coalition Juntos Haremos Historia, who ran on promise to end corruption and replace militarised anti-organised crime strategy with peacebuilding measures, won 53.19% of votes for presidency, winning in all but one state and securing over 50% of votes in twenty states, most by any candidate in three decades. Incumbent President Peña Nieto’s Institutional Revolutionary Party obtained 16.4% of vote, its worst result in decades. Political violence continued on election day with seven public officials reportedly murdered; 153 politically active persons, including 48 candidates, killed since Sept 2017 start of election campaign. NGO Impunidad Cero 17 July reported only 1.14% of criminal cases solved in 2018. Incoming govt, which takes power in Dec, 17 July invited pope to participate in peace and reconciliation process toward drug-related violence in country and initiated debate about establishing a new drug policy that includes decriminalisation of marijuana, as well as creating truth commissions and reparation for victims of criminal violence. Drug trafficking-related violence continued, with deaths from fighting between criminal groups and clashes between security forces and groups taking place in Mexico City (centre), Sinaloa state (north west), Guerrero (south), Michoacán (south west), Guanajuato (centre), and Zacatecas (centre). Amid ongoing violence against journalists, police 8 July attacked two reporters covering shootout in Doctores, Mexico City. Police continued operations to tackle gasoline theft throughout country, especially in Puebla (centre). Newly elected President AMLO held phone call with U.S. President Trump 2 July and in 13 July letter proposed four priorities for relationship: trade, security, migration and development in Central America; also signalled willingness to cooperate on NAFTA revision, however govt 5 July launched second set of retaliatory tariffs against U.S.. Citizen Council of Mexico City 16 July reported 85% increase of incidents relating to human trafficking in first six months of 2018 compared to 2017. FM 10-11 July attended Northern Triangle of Central America and Mexico (Tricamex) meeting to address migration crisis and regional security (see Guatemala).

Political violence continued to worsen in lead-up to 1 July elections; attacks against electoral candidates and their relatives included three female politicians murdered 2 June in Juchitán, Oaxaca state (south west) and Zihuateutla, Puebla state (central). Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) Congress candidate for Coahuila state (north) shot dead 8 June following statements promising harder stance on crime. Mayoral candidate of Taretan, Michoacán state (west) murdered 14 June. Of 132 registered political killings since start of campaign in Sept 2017, 80% took place at municipal level, and almost half in three states: Guerrero (south), Oaxaca and Puebla. Violence related to organised crime, drug gang rivalries or gender also continued to rise; May reported as most violent month in twenty years with 2,890 killings, while reported 10,395 homicides Jan-April represent 21% increase on same period in 2017; femicides also increased in first trimester of 2018, rising to 269 victims from 226 in same period of 2017. Three LGBT activists killed 17 June in Taxco, Guerrero, making at least 381 people murdered for sexual orientation during President Nieto’s tenure. Journalist José Chan Dzib shot dead in Feliube Carrillo Puerto, Quintana Roo state (east) 29 June. Anger at enforced disappearances involving state actors and alleged collusion between state and criminal actors continued; court 4 June ordered creation of truth commission in case of 43 students disappeared in Sept 2014 from Guerrero. In Veracruz (south), judge 7 June filed arrest warrant against former Governor Javier Duarte for his alleged involvement in enforced disappearances, while police 17 June arrested Luis Ángel Bravo Contreras, former prosecutor linked to Duarte, for alleged role in covering up case of over a dozen corpses discovered in Jan 2016.

Political violence remained high in run-up to 1 July presidential, legislative, state and local elections. Violence particularly targeted at mayoral candidates, including mayor of Pacula, Hildalgo state, and mayoral candidates for Tenango del Aire, Mexico state, and Apaseo el Alto, Guanajuato state. In worst-affected state Guerrero (south), 24 politicians assassinated and three more disappeared since campaigning began 8 Sept 2017. During same period, at least 1,000 candidates have withdrawn their candidacies nationally citing internal party decisions and political violence. Violence against journalists also continued, including Juan Carlos Huerta shot dead in Villahermosa, Tabasco state (south east) 15 May; National Commission for Human Rights 3 May reported 133 journalists assassinated in Mexico since 2000. Enforced disappearances and alleged collusion between state and criminal actors continued; media late April reported that three people searching for disappeared family members in San Miguel Soyaltepec, Oaxaca state (south west) also went missing 6 April. Federal authorities 14 May filed international arrest warrant for Luis Ángel Bravo Contreras, former Veracruz prosecutor allegedly involved in covering up cases relating to thirteen bodies found Jan 2016. Widespread violence relating to drug trafficking and organised crime also continued; authorities found eight bodies in mass graves in Michoacán state 25 April, twelve in Guanajuato state 12 May; at least 42 executions occurred in Oaxaca in first nine days of May. Lower house of Congress late April unanimously approved initiative abolishing elected politicians’ immunity from prosecution. Commission on Defence and Promotion of Human Rights 2 May revealed 25 incidents of internal forced displacement in 2017 affecting 20,390 people, 60% of them from indigenous groups. U.S.-Mexican relations strained by early May revelations U.S. govt paid $60mn between 2005 and 2017 to settle U.S. Customs and Border Protection cases of human rights violations; U.S. President Trump’s alleged referral to migrants as “animals” 16 May prompted further anger. Govt said it “deeply regrets and disapproves” of U.S. decision 31 May to impose tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, and would impose retaliatory tariffs.

Political violence continued during run-up to 1 July elections, largest polling day in country’s history; attacks on candidates included killings of Maribel Barajas Cortés, candidate for local assembly in Michoacán state (west) 11 April; José Efraín García, mayor of Tlanepantla, Puebla state (central) 12 April; Juan Carlos Andrade, mayor of Jilotlán de los Dolores, Jalisco state (west) 15 April. National Association of Mayors reported 121 mayors killed since 2006. Violence against journalists continued; police 5 April attacked two journalists and detained a third in Tijuana, Baja California state (north west), where they were covering forced displacement case. Authorities reported 4,206 homicides in Jan and Feb 2018, 11% more than in same period 2017, with Baja California, Guerrero, Mexico, Guanajuato and Jalisco states most violent. Public outrage followed 23 April announcement by Jalisco state prosecutors that three film students missing since March had been killed and dissolved in acid. Violence against women also a particular concern; National Citizen Observatory of Femicides 10 April presented report stating more than 8,900 women murdered between 2014 and 2017. Clashes between security forces and criminal groups continued claiming dozens of lives, including six civilians killed in crossfire in Reynosa, Tamaulipas state (north east) 11 April; six police and ten alleged attackers killed in shootout in Zihuatanejo, Guerrero state (south west) 17 April. Dozens killed in feuds and clashes between criminal actors, also responsible for forced displacement of civilians. Govt 10 April announced increase in soldiers deployed to southern border to appease U.S. govt and demonstrate cooperation on migration issue, amid continuing tense relations between the two countries.

As campaigning began for 1 July elections, political violence continued and appeared to escalate in Guerrero state (south west), and Veracruz and Puebla states (south); as of 17 March, 70 candidates murdered since campaigning started in Sept. Victims include Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) candidate Homero Bravo Espino and Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) candidate Gustavo Martín Álvaro Gómez, murdered in Guerrero 2 March and Puebla 16 March. Amid focus on public security and “war on drugs” ahead of vote, NGO Consejo Ciudadano para la Seguridad Pública y la Justicia Penal 6 March released report identifying five Mexican cities among world’s ten most violent big cities in countries not affected by armed conflict. NGO Article 19 on 20 March reported 1,986 journalists attacked during President Peña Nieto’s tenure, with 2017 most violent year in last decade. Killings related to drug trafficking, organised crime and attacks on activists continued. Activist Mireles Valverde 4 March declared over 100 homicides in Michoacán (centre) late Feb-early March had not been reported by local authorities and media. At least 37 executions registered in Jalisco 1-5 March; pickup truck found with six mutilated bodies in Guadalajara (west) 6 March; authorities in Sonora state (north west) 17-19 March reported twelve extrajudicial killings.

Secretariat of Public Security 22 Feb reported 2,156 homicides in Jan, making it most violent month since 1997; also reported homicides in most deadly cities including U.S. border city Tijuana and Los Cabos, both in Baja California; and in south, Ixtapa Zihuatanejo in Oaxaca state, Acapulco and Chilapa in Guerrero state, and Manzanillo and Tecomán in Colima state; rising violence attributed to fight for control of territory by Cartel Jalisco New Generation and political violence in run-up to 1 July election. Francisco Rojas, federal deputy from Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and possible mayoral candidate in Mexico state, shot dead 6 Feb, bringing number of politicians murdered since Dec to at least twelve. National Electoral Institute reported states that could be especially vulnerable to political violence are: Chihuahua, Guerrero, Michoacán, Tamaulipas, and some regions of Veracruz. Six people died after attack by ten hitmen on restaurant in Tlaquepaque, Jalisco (west) 8 Feb, possibly in revenge for arrest of several Cartel Jalisco New Generation leaders. In west, Nayarit state authorities 15 Feb reported discovery of suspected remains of two federal agents abducted by Cartel Jalisco New Generation. Six people were killed in 24 hours 15 Feb in areas around Guadalajara, Jalisco. Five decapitated bodies found in Guachochi, Chihuahua (north) 7 Feb. Murder of two Catholic priests in Guerrero 5 Feb spurred Church authorities to call for investigation to denounce targeted violence against priests. Extrajudicial killings and other human rights violations continued unabated. Local weekly Riodoce 6 Feb revealed that group of marines had executed four people in Culiacán, Sinaloa (north west) previous week. Attacks against human rights activists, journalists and migrants also ongoing. Three members of Committee for the Defence of Indigenous Rights killed in Oaxaca 13 Feb. Blogger, comedian and journalist Pamika Montenegro, aka “Nana Pelucas”, murdered in Acapulco, Guerrero 5 Feb.

In north east, fight between two factions of Gulf Cartel paralysed city of Reynosa in Tamaulipas state from 22 Jan. Local media reported dozens of barricades and street blockages, plus armed confrontations between criminal groups, police and armed forces around city, leaving at least one soldier and six civilians dead 22-24 Jan, and leading President Peña Nieto to cancel planned visit 29 Jan. In north west, eighteen murders reported during first four days of Jan in Chihuahua state; attack by unidentified men against supposed members of Artistas Asesinos gangs left five dead and three wounded in Ciudad Juárez 20 Jan. In Elota, Sinaloa state, two police commanders kidnapped 5 Jan, later found dead. New mass graves found in Costa Rica (Sinaloa state) 13 Jan with undetermined number of corpses; three more with 32 corpses found in Nayarit state (west) 17 Jan; another found in Valle de la Trinidad, Baja California state (west), with remains of four people. Local journalist Carlos Domínguez Rodríguez murdered in Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas state 13 Jan. Violence in Gulf state Veracruz (south) continued unabated, with five dismembered bodies found in Tlacotalpan 5 Jan attributed to Cartel Jalisco New Generation; and nine dismembered bodies found in Xalapa 14 Jan. In southern state Guerrero, authorities 7 Jan confirmed eleven people murdered during shootout between gunmen and community police in Acapulco; and human rights activists in Tlachinollan reported 30 police detained and three died in clashes between community police force and state police. Local media early Jan reported rumours of emergence of looting movement to protest inflation in several southern states, including Mexico state; senior official confirmed 113 people arrested 5 Jan. Media 3 Jan reported eleven politicians killed in Dec in seven states, mainly Guerrero and Jalisco (west). La Jornada newspaper 2 Jan reported that conflict which has forced some 5,000 indigenous persons from Chalchihuitán and Chenalhó, in southern state Chiapas, to flee in recent months following threats from armed groups related to land dispute, is escalating.

Presenting preliminary findings from visit to five Mexican states, special rapporteurs for freedom of expression of UN and Organization of American States 4 Dec said violence and fear suffered by Mexican journalists even worse than Syria and other countries affected by war and/or authoritarian regimes. Two journalists killed in Dec: Gumaro Pérez Aguilando killed in front of classroom full of children during Christmas celebration in Acayucan, Veracruz state (south) 19 Dec; popular social media figure Juan Luis Lagunas Rosales murdered in bar in Jalisco state (south west) after publishing video insulting leader of Cartel Jalisco New Generation. Dozens of people killed in Michoacán (south west), including two state police killed in Aguililla 6 Dec. Bodies of six men found hanging from bridges over major roads in Los Cabos resort area of Baja California Sur state (west) 20 Dec. Concerns grew over difficulties faced by govt in advancing police reforms that would enable gradual withdrawal of troops from public security activities, as Congress 15 Dec approved Law of Internal Security, normalising use of armed forces in public security – against advice of UN high commissioner for human rights and almost every national, regional and international human rights body, and in face of protests and fierce political opposition.