CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Tensions increased with U.S. after President Trump 25 Jan signed executive order for construction of wall along border and insisted Mexico would pay: President Peña Nieto cancelled planned meeting with Trump amid public outrage. Month also saw widespread social unrest over increased petrol prices, venting high levels of public discontent at corruption in political establishment, lack of economic opportunity and violent crime; at least six killed as protests turned violent, thousands arrested. Protests followed 27 Dec decision to liberalise fuel market and scrap state subsidies leading to 14-20% petrol price increases. Thousands protested 12 Jan in Baja California state against price increases and privatisation of water law. Protests ongoing in Mexico City and around twenty states. Further fuel price provisionally slated by Secretariat of Finance and Public Credit for 4 Feb. Congress continued to debate new Internal Security Law, designed to provide legal framework for military’s legitimate use of force in operations related to combating organised crime, corruption, terrorism and other crimes. Violence involving organised criminal groups continued, particularly in Michoacán state. Authorities early Jan arrested “El Duende”, presumed head of “Los Viagras” cartel, and senior leader “Jorge C. El Mecánico”. In Quintana Roo state, five killed in shootout during music festival in Playa del Carmen resort 17 Jan; “Old School Zetas” faction claimed responsibility. At least ten armed people attacked state’s prosecutor’s office in north of Cancún same day; three attackers and a police officer killed.
Internal attorney general investigation against ex-director of Criminal Investigation Agency, Tomás Zerón, 17 Dec found that key evidence in case of 43 disappeared students from Ayotzinapa, which agency presented under Zerón’s guidance, was obtained by torture. New evidence provided in book by chief investigator Chávez Flores and journalist Anabel Hernández points to involvement of 27th Infantry Battalion stationed in Iguala in disappearances. Authorities 9 Dec arrested Alfredo Beltrán Guzmán alias “El Mochomito”, nephew of arrested Sinaloa Cartel kingpin Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán and son of Alfredo Beltrán Leyva, arrested leader of Beltrán Leyva Cartel; “El Mochomito” considered key actor behind recent violence in Sinaloa. Senate 12 Dec started debating new law that aims to regulate public security responsibilities of military; military has repeatedly demanded such a law, insisting its troops are confronted with tasks they are not qualified for, also requested fewer human rights restrictions. Different Institutional Revolutionary Party ex-state governors continue to be investigated for corruption charges; new Veracruz governor Miguel Ángel Yunes assumed office 1 Dec promising anti-corruption reforms.
Amid state debt crisis, Veracruz state legislature 8 Nov occupied by some 50 city mayors demanding funds, while city administrations remained closed. Further violent incidents reported in several states including Veracruz, Mexico City, and in cities including Ciudad Juárez, Tijuana and Acapulco. In Tijuana, Jalisco New Generation Cartel 3 Nov hung dead body of presumed Sinaloa Cartel member off bridge and warned of more such killings. Victory of Donald Trump in U.S. presidential election prompted acute public, political and business fears, in part due to Trump’s campaign pledges to tax Mexican imports and remittances sent to Mexico and rewrite NAFTA free trade agreement, and deport illegal immigrants; peso fell to its lowest value since 1994.
President Peña Nieto’s PRI party faced new scandals, including resignation 12 Oct of ex-Veracruz governor Javier Duarte, target of federal corruption investigation, suspected of creating system that diverted public funds to net of fictitious companies; Duarte went into hiding after issue of arrest warrant 15 Oct. Five killed in ambush on military convoy in Culiacán (Sinaloa) 30 Sept, thought to be organised by Sinaloa Cartel, in conflict with Beltrán Leyva cartel in region; govt subsequently stationed military in region. In Baja California state, Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG) reported to be cooperating with Arellano Félix cartel to create Tijuana Nueva Generación (CTNG), to challenge Sinaloa. In San Pedro (Coahuila), NGO early Oct discovered hundreds of bone fragments in site of mass executions by Los Zetas. National Human Rights Commission (CNDH) 30 Sept asked for investigations into 42 members of state government over irregularities in investigations concerning graves in Morelos, discovered in June and containing 119 bodies. New search for 43 students who disappeared from Ayotzinapa in 2014 launched 17 Oct. Three university students who went missing in Veracruz 29 Sept found dead; Aug homicide figures showed Veracruz country’s most violent state with 229 registered homicides.
Govt report 1 Sept listed 63,816 homicides since President Peña Nieto took office in 2012, 17% increase in homicides during the first half of 2016 compared with same period in 2015. Most homicides reportedly due to assassinations by criminal organisations, accounting for 80% of killings in Guerrero, Colima and Tamaulipas states. Women’s activist group discovered 75 clandestine graves in Veracruz 7 Sept. Activists defending cause of 43 disappeared students from Ayotzinapa continued demonstrations during month, criticising attorney general and failure to carry out investigations specified by Interdisciplinary Group of Independent Experts (GIEI). Special attorney for Ayotzinapa case 13 Sept announced that both state and federal police officers suspected of involvement in case would now be investigated. Attorney general’s head of investigations Tomás Zerón resigned 15 Sept due to allegations of wrongdoing in Ayotzinapa case, immediately promoted to national security adviser to president. Public approval ratings of President Peña Nieto reached historic low of 23%.
Human Rights Commission (CNDH) 18 Aug published report holding Federal Police, attorney general’s office and Michoacán state’s attorney general’s office accountable for violating human rights of scores of alleged criminals during May 2015 confrontation between govt forces and purported members of Jalisco New Generation Cartel; said 22 out of 42 dead civilians were victims of extrajudicial executions, announced it will pursue criminal and administrative actions against those responsible. Chief of police sacked 29 Aug to allow “transparent investigation”. Suspected Sinaloa cartel operator and son of prominent drug kingpin Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán, Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar, kidnapped 15 Aug in Puerto Vallarta along with five others by armed group allegedly belonging to rival Jalisco New Generation Cartel, prompting concerns over increasing power of New Generation, renewed drug trafficking-related violence. New scandal revealing possible conflict of interest involving first lady’s use of $2.05m luxury apartment in Florida owned by potential govt contractor interested in running Mexico’s ports; President Peña Nieto denies any wrongdoing on his or his wife’s part. His approval ratings slid to 23%, lowest level yet. Free speech group Article 19 issued report showing 2016 already deadliest year for journalists in Mexico since 2010, eight killed during first six months including three in Veracruz. National statistics agency announced 2.6% increase in homicides from 20,010 in 2014 to 20,525 in 2015, first rise in four years.
Protesters backing teachers opposed to educational reforms continued to block major highways in several southern states, reportedly causing major economic losses and shortage of basic goods in remote areas. Govt attempted to defuse protests in 13 July talks with main teacher’s union, however proposals rejected by dissident union. President Peña Nieto signed new anti-corruption reform into law 18 July, while apologising for 2014 conflict of interest scandal involving property purchase by his wife. Federal prosecutor’s office 11 July said it would challenge laws passed by State Congresses in Veracruz and Quintana Roo that could protect outgoing governors from prosecution. Court in Texas 19 July convicted Marciano (aka “Chano”) Millán Vásquez of conspiring to commit numerous murders as a Zetas cartel leader in border town Piedras Negras, Coahuila state; relatives of those who disappeared in Coahuila said they would use evidence presented during trial to file charges against state govt before International Criminal Court, accusing authorities of complicity in mass disappearances. Two mayors killed in separate attacks in Guerrero and Chiapas states 23 July.
Clashes between police and supporters of dissident teachers’ union 19 June left at least nine civilians dead and dozens of protestors and police injured in southern state Oaxaca. Police were reportedly trying to clear street blockades set up by protestors opposed to educational reforms; how gunfire started and its source stillunder investigation. Major opposition parties National Action Party (PAN) and Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) 5 June defeated ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) in seven of twelve state elections. PRI lost governor’s seat to PAN-PRD alliance candidate in two historic Gulf Coast strongholds, Tamaulipas and Veracruz states, where corruption and insecurity are major issues. Senate 16 June approved two anticorruption laws, one enabling National Anti-Corruption System, creating an independent prosecutor, strengthening federal auditors and establishing special courts for fraud cases; the other requiring public officials to reveal assets, prove they pay taxes and expose potential conflicts of interest. Officials 25 May began exhuming remains of more than 100 people found in mass grave in central Morelos state. Constitutional reforms passed ten years ago came into force 18 June obliging states to adopt new accusatory justice system, aimed at improving transparency, impartiality and efficiency.
Two federal judges 11 and 16 May accepted separate U.S. requests from California and Texas district courts, for extradition of cartel leader Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán; process still requires approval from foreign ministry and could be appealed by Guzmán’s lawyers. Citizen-led brigades searching for missing persons continued to find clandestine graves: “Siempre Vivos” committee 12 May discovered remains in Chilapa municipality, Guerrero state, where drug gang kidnapped over a dozen people in May 2015; similar efforts have found remains of over 100 people around city of Iguala, Guerrero; relatives of missing students 22 April also found fifteen clandestine graves containing burnt remains in Gulf-coast state of Veracruz. National Human Rights Commission 11 May released report showing country’s internally displaced population exceeds 35,000; urged govt to take national census along with measures to protect victims’ rights and guarantee their access to social services. Ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and opposition National Action Party (PAN) traded accusations of links to organised crime ahead of 5 June regional elections: PRI 7 May expelled three mayors from party citing alleged links to organised crime; PAN responded alleging PRI had history of association with organised crime in Tamaulipas.
International experts 24 April released their final report on govt’s investigation into 2014 disappearance of 43 students in Guerrero state, detailing errors and inconsistencies and possible torture of suspects. The team, named by Inter-American Commission on Human Rights at Mexico’s request, also accused govt of blocking its investigation by withholding evidence and refusing access to military officers stationed where abductions took place. Authorities mid-April said they will not ask for extension of team’s mandate, which ended 30 April ; team’s departure leaves unsolved one of most serious crimes in recent Mexican history, enforced disappearances of students from Ayotzinapa teaching college reportedly by municipal police acting in league with criminal gang. Panicked residents of Pacific resort Acapulco, Mexico’s most violent city plagued by gang battles, shuttered businesses and schools after armed gangs launched simultaneous attacks 24 April on federal police. President Peña Nieto 21 April proposed legalising marijuana-based medicines and relaxing restrictions on personal use.
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