CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Ex-Cochabamba prefect Manfred Reyes Villa now main opposition candidate for Dec presidential elections after several other candidates stepped down. Villa 1 Sept named ex-Pando governor Leopoldo Fernández as VP running mate; Fernández still imprisoned, accused of instigating Sept 2008 violent Pando clash that killed 20, mostly pro-Morales supporters. Govt 10 Sept nationalised 3 electricity providers by decree. U.S. State Department report 16 Sept stated Bolivia “failed demonstrably” to reduce cocaine production, said aid will continue.
President Morales 3 Aug passed decree law allowing indigenous communities to vote for autonomy in 6 Dec elections; opposition parties criticised as unconstitutional. Morales accused rightwing opposition of violence after 2 letter bombs exploded in La Paz 12 Aug. Opinion polls indicate Morales likely to win Dec presidential elections; opposition heavily fractured, yet to unite under single candidate.
President Morales 5 July announced govt plans to nationalise electricity supply, railroads. Senate President Oscar Ortíz 13 July launched new Consenso Popular party, aims to unite fragmented opposition for Dec presidential elections; currently 13 opposition candidates running against Morales
Increased tension ahead of 9 Dec general elections: indigenous pro-govt supporters early-June threatened to prevent opposition candidates from campaigning in La Paz, Potosí departments. UN report 19 June stated Bolivian potential cocaine production grew 9% in 2008, highest among Andean countries.
Govt-opposition relations deteriorated over alleged assassination plot against President Morales and others in Apr: attorney general 5 May claimed senior opposition figures in Santa Cruz department, including prefect Ruben Costas, financed group behind plot; opposition denied, questioned govt evidence. 2 detained late Apr, accused of supplying arms to plotters; 8 May claimed they were tortured to implicate opposition involvement in plot. Morales 20 May passed decree law allowing govt to seize assets of individuals, companies suspected of links to “terrorist, separatist groups”; opposition criticised as against rule of law.
Following 5-day hunger strike by President Morales, Congress 14 Apr approved new electoral law, set general elections for 6 Dec; opposition agreed to support law after govt announced will fund new electoral register, reduce number of designated indigenous seats in Congress from 36 to 7. Police 14 Apr killed 3, including 2 foreigners, accused of plotting to kill Morales and VP García.
Opposition prefects 4 March asked for President Morales to be charged over promoting corruption in state oil and gas company. Mob 9 March attacked indigenous opposition presidential candidate Víctor Hugo Cárdenas’s house, accused of being “traitor to his race”. Senate yet to approve new electoral law, opposition claims gives unfair advantages to ruling MAS party; MAS supporters in 31 March La Paz demonstration demanded passing.
New constitution officially enacted 7 Feb; President Morales announced new cabinet, number of ministers increased from 17 to 20. Morales 1 Feb dismissed head of state oil and gas company and close ally Santos Ramírez after he was accused of corruption.
New constitution approved with 60% of vote in 25 Jan referendum, but political polarisation remains after clear majority voted against in 4 opposition departments. President Morales hailed vote as “new beginning”; new charter strengthens indigenous rights, but critics say text contradictory, difficult to implement. Campaign passed relatively peacefully. Morales 12 Jan threatened to enact constitution by decree if opposition in Congress interferes in passing.
Constitutional referendum to be held 25 Jan after National Electoral Council appointment 20 Dec ensured quorum. Tensions increased ahead of vote: state prosecutor 2 Dec arrested several opposition officials accused of instigating Sept violent demonstrations; opposition prefects said will “renew protests” against govt. 3 Dec Unasur report called Sept Pando department killing of 20 mainly pro-govt supporters a “massacre”; opposition criticised report as politically motivated.
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