CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Govt 10 Sept announced decision to proceed with country’s withdrawal from Inter-American Court on Human Rights, prompting concern domestically and abroad. France seized more than 1.3 tons of cocaine on Air France flight from Venezuela; authorities jailed 22 people, including National Guard officials and airport staff. Govt 30 Sept announced expulsion of 3 U.S. diplomats accused of plotting to sabotage economy.
Supreme Court (TSJ) 8 Aug dismissed appeal against presidential elections results presented by opposition leader Henrique Capriles because allegations were “generic and vague”; Capriles said not surprised by decision, reiterated intention to appeal to international courts. Following 11 Aug announcement by attorney general Luisa Ortega Díaz that 50 people had been arrested and 53 charged with corruption-related offences, President Maduro said would ask National Assembly for legislative powers to combat corruption; opposition called new anti-corruption drive politically-motivated “witch hunt”.
Govt 23 July said ending talks to restore relations with U.S. in protest at remarks by UN ambassador-designate Samantha Power that civil society experiencing crackdown in Venezuela. President Maduro 5 July made public offer of asylum to fugitive U.S. whistleblower Edward Snowden. Maduro continued to work to establish authority over military; rival national assembly chairman Diosdado Cabello also continued efforts to expand influence. Head of daily El Nacional accused govt of trying to silence it.
President Maduro 5 June denied rumours of further large devaluation of bolivar, blamed “corrupt, fascist right-wing” forces within country for attempting to spread fear about economy. Following several postponements, govt set elections for mayors and councillors for 8 Dec 2013. National Electoral Council (CNE) 12 June announced it concluded auditof 14 April presidential election results and found no discrepancies; Supreme Court yet to announce if it will submit legal challenges to election. FM Jaua 5 June met U.S. Sec State Kerry at OAS General Assembly in Guatemala.
Opposition Democratic Unity (MUD) alliance 2 May called on Supreme Court (TSJ) electoral chamber to annul 14 April presidential election on account of multiple alleged irregularities, including violence at polling stations, exclusion of opposition witnesses and coercion of voters; 8 May filed second suit calling for partial annulment of election, citing irregularities in 5,729 mesas (voting tables) which it said compromised over 2.3 million votes. MUD also challenged 3 electoral chamber judges on grounds of partiality to ruling party. President Maduro mid-month accused private sector of waging “economic war” on regime by slowing production and hoarding goods. Head of National Assembly Diosdado Cabello said meeting between MUD leader Henrique Capriles and Colombian President Santos in Bogotá 29 May amounted to putting “bomb” in bilateral relations. FM Jaua said Venezuela recalled envoy to Havana peace talks, Maduro said meeting amounted to “backstabbing”; Santos dismissed allegations Colombia is trying to destabilise Venezuela as “crazy”. National Electoral Council announced municipal elections will be held 8 Dec.
Following March death of President Chávez, closely fought elections on 14 April triggered political crisis. Result much closer than most opinion polls had predicted, with VP Maduro defeating opposition Democratic Unity (MUD) candidate Henrique Capriles by less than 2 percentage points and fewer than 230,000 votes; opposition refused to accept result. Maduro’s narrow victory, along with acute political polarisation and controversy surrounding govt use of state resources to support Maduro’s campaign, prompted one electoral body (CNE) member to call for 100% audit of paper ballots (just over 50% already audited on election day) to verify electronic results. Call echoed by Capriles, but CNE majority rejected proposal. Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) meeting in Lima 18 April reportedly persuaded govt to allow audit of an additional 18,000 ballot boxes; CNE said 12,000 of those 18,000 would be randomly selected, process will take 30 days. Some CNE members insisted electronic result is irreversible, any challenge would have to be made before Supreme Court, whose president also declared there could be no change since electoral law rules out manual recount. MUD insisted it has sufficient evidence of irregularities to call result into question. Maduro blamed Capriles for violent incidents in days following election, including 8 deaths he said result of opposition “campaign of violence”.
President Chávez died from cancer 5 March; VP Maduro sworn in as acting president after funeral. Electoral commission (CNE) 9 March announced legislative elections to be held 14 April; will pit Maduro against opposition Democratic Unity alliance’s Henrique Capriles. Maduro further hardened stance on opposition and U.S., claimed U.S. plot to assassinate Capriles “to create chaos in country”. Govt 5 March expelled 2 U.S. diplomats for allegedly conspiring against govt; U.S. 11 March ordered 2 Venezuelan diplomats to leave U.S. .Opposition demanding that CNE take steps to curb govt abuse of state resources for campaigning, wants armed forces to adopt more neutral stance.
Govt 18 Feb announced return of President Chávez following 70-day absence for cancer treatment in Cuba; VP Maduro 28 Feb said Chávez “battling for his life”. Opposition Democratic Unity alliance (MUD) continued to press for full medical report and restoration of constitutional normality as Chávez yet to be inaugurated.
Fears of instability after Supreme Court (TSJ) moved to keep cancer-stricken President Chávez in power despite his failure to attend 10 Jan inauguration for his third presidential term, prompting opposition challenge and signs of further radicalisation of both sides. TSJ 9 Jan ruled Chávez did not need to be sworn for new term before National Assembly but that he could take oath of office at unspecified later date before TSJ; also argued that ministers could remain in power. Chávez 15 Jan appointed loyalist and former VP Elías Jaua as foreign minister and “political VP”. Opposition leader Capriles said govt “openly lies” about Chávez health. Electoral Commission 29 Jan said municipal elections initially scheduled 26 May now to be held 14 July. Prison riot in Barquisimeto 25 Jan left at least 61 people dead; UNOHCHR 29 Jan expressed concern over violence in prisons.
National Assembly president Diosdado Cabello suggested delaying President Chávez’s swearing-in ceremony scheduled for 10 Jan as Chávez facing “difficult” recovery after new cancer surgery in Cuba, 23 Dec said govt will not call fresh elections if Chávez unable to be sworn in. Chávez 8 Dec named VP Nicolás Maduro as potential heir. Ruling PSUV party won 20 governorships out of 23 in regional elections 16 Dec but former opposition presidential candidate Henrique Capriles re-elected as Merida state governor. Venezuelan Observatory of Violence 27 Dec reported over 21,000 people assassinated in 2012.
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