CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Venezuela elected member of UNGA’s Human Rights Council for 2013-2015; opponents of President Chávez, parts of international community criticised election, especially given Venezuela’s Sept request for withdrawal from Inter-American Court on Human Rights. Judge arrested in 2009 while investigating prominent human rights case alleged she was raped while in prison. Chávez 27 Nov travelled to Cuba for new round of cancer treatment, marking 7th trip to island this year.
Presidential election held 7 Oct with no major incidents reported; President Chávez re-elected for 4th term with 55.3% of vote, defeating opposition Henrique Capriles (44.1%). Govt 16 Oct expelled all remaining Paraguayan diplomats following July withdrawal of ambassadors from both countries amid tensions over June impeachment of Paraguayan president Lugo.
Fears of renewed violence as tensions increased ahead of 7 Oct presidential elections. 2 local opposition leaders shot dead at campaign rally in Barinas state 29 Sept, allegedly by members of ruling PSUV party; 6 PSUV militants arrested. Govt denied accusations by opposition Primero Justicia. Unconfirmed reports President Chávez training cells of “militant revolutionaries” from grassroots social and vigilante groups “colectivos” to avert possible electoral defeat. Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) 12 Sept designated commission to “accompany” 7 Oct presidential elections. Latest opinion polling varies between groups, but most indicate Chávez with double-digit lead, though opposition candidate Capriles gaining ground, many undecided or non-respondents. Capriles sacked top aide after being filmed receiving cash payment from unidentified person.
Spain, U.S., UK experts concluded electronic voting system for Oct presidential elections “guarantees transparency and secrecy of vote” following 5 Aug tests. Concerns over homicide rates in prisons increased following 19 Aug riot involving rival gangs at Yare prison, Miranda State which left 25 dead, 43 injured.
President Chávez reportedly violated electoral rules 217 times in first week of presidential campaign compared to 165 by Capriles; violations consisted mostly of use of state funds, public buildings for campaign purposes, attacks on opponent. Candidates 19 July signed agreement to respect electoral rules/results, promote peaceful campaign. Paraguay’s Defence Minister García 28 June accused Venezuelan FM Maduro of inciting Paraguayan army revolt in order to defend ousted president Lugo. Chávez 24 July reiterated intention to withdraw Venezuela from Inter-American Court of Human Rights (IACHR); OAS late June passed reforms to modernise IACHR; new IACHR Executive Secretary Emilio Álvarez Icaza stated he will engage harshest critics of system.
8 presidential candidates registered with National Election Council (CNE) ahead of 7 Oct polls, including President Chávez, opposition MUD presidential candidate Henrique Capriles. Authorities 3 June announced arrest of “Diego Rastrojo”, major drug trafficker and leader of new illegal armed group, plans to extradite him to Colombia. Govt 1 June announced new law banning private gun ownership. President Chávez 14 June said country producing surveillance drones, weapons as part of cooperation with Iran, Russia, China. “Anti-Chávez” TV channel Globovision 29 June paid $2.1 million fine for coverage of 2011 prison riot.
President Chávez early May appointed “Council of State” body of advisers, touted as part of a plan for post-Chávez transition. Parliament 8 May voted to withdraw from Inter- American Commission on Human Rights; FM Maduro called upon regional govts to work towards creation of new supra-national human rights infrastructure independent from OAS and U.S.; UNOHCHR spokesperson Rupert Colville called upon govt to reconsider. Continued uncertainty over Chávez’s health following 11-day silence after return from Cuba.
President Chávez’s 4 radiotherapy cycles in Cuba meant further absences, prevented his attendance at 6th Summit of the Americas; following week-long silence Chávez 24 April announcing return to Caracas in televised address. Former Supreme Court judge Eladio Aponte, dismissed because of alleged ties to drug kingpin Walid Makled, agreed to provide U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency with information on drug trade activities involving high- ranking members of govt.
Gunmen 4 March attacked October 2012 elections campaign event led by opposition candidate Henrique Capriles Radonski, exacerbating tensions between govt and opposition; President Chávez 20 March said plot to assassinate Capriles uncovered. In joint operation, Interpol, Colombian and Venezuelan security agents 21 March arrested FARC co-founder William Alberto Asprilla Chitiva “Marquetaliano” near Caracas. Chávez 31 March returned to Cuba for second five-day radiotherapy treatment.
Henrique Capriles Radonski, leader of Primero Justicia party and governor of Miranda state, elected 12 Feb as unified opposition candidate to run against President Chávez in 7 Oct primaries. Chávez 4 Feb commemorated 20th anniversary of failed coup that launched his political career. Political uncertainty increased after Chávez travelled to Cuba 24 Feb to remove cancer tumour, 29 Feb said “recovering like a condor”; worries his health may affect conduct of elections.
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