Political stalemate persisted as opposition remained in disarray and electoral dispute continued over recent polls in Barinas state. Following Nov win of ruling PSUV party in regional and local elections, protests 2 Dec erupted in Santa Rosalía municipality, Portuguesa state (south west) in response to disputed local election results; opposition supporters decried election fraud and demanded new elections after National Electoral Council (CNE) declared victory for ruling party candidate. Govt 3 Dec reportedly denied visa extension for EU observers, requiring them to leave on 5 Dec instead of 13 Dec as planned. In Barinas (south west), voters 4 Dec denounced Supreme Court’s decision to invalidate election results and retroactively disqualify opposition candidate Freddy Superlano from participating in new elections scheduled for 9 Jan; ruling party 5 Dec named former FM Jorge Arreaza candidate. CNE 22 Dec named six civil organisations as national observers for monitoring electoral transparency. Senior member and foreign affairs chief of opposition leader Juan Guaidó’s interim govt Julio Borges 5 Dec resigned and called for dismantling of interim govt; repeated previous calls for overseas assets currently held in opposition’s name to be transferred to trust, said current management “a scandal” and that they were being used for “personal ends”. Meanwhile, Guaidó-led opposition leadership continued to resist calls for greater transparency, insisted “interim govt” must remain until free and fair presidential elections. U.S. Envoy Roger Carstens 8-11 Dec visited country to meet President Maduro and discuss welfare of detained U.S. nationals, including six jailed oil executives with no apparent breakthrough; Maduro continued to demand release of close collaborator Colombian businessman Alex Saab, recently extradited to U.S. on money-laundering charges. After govt launched legal action against Bank of England to regain $1bn in gold reserves, UK Supreme Court 20 Dec said UK “unequivocally recognised opposition leader Juan Guaidó as president” rather than Maduro and referred case back to commercial court. Head of govt-led National Assembly 22 Dec called for session to discuss modifications to justice system, including reducing number of Supreme Court judges. Opposition-led National Assembly 27 Dec renewed its term and Guaidó’s mandate as “interim president” for one more year.

Ruling party secured sweeping victory in regional and local elections amid low turnout and international concerns over irregularities, and International Criminal Court opened formal investigation into crimes against humanity in Venezuela. In 21 Nov regional and local elections, ruling United Socialist Party won at least 19 out of 23 governor seats. In Barinas state, Supreme Court’s electoral branch 29 Nov retroactively disqualified opposition candidate Freddy Superlano, who was slightly leading in vote count, and ordered fresh election in Jan, sparking outcry. Results brought into sharp relief weakness and lack of unity of opposition, which participated in elections for first time since 2017; turnout of 41.8% also highlighted widespread voter disaffection. Violent incidents reported on election day in San Francisco town (Zulia state): notably, ruling party supporters known as colectivos reportedly killed man and injured two other people outside voting centre. U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken 22 Nov said elections “grossly skewed”, while Isabel Santos, EU observation mission’s chief observer, next day flagged irregularities including “arbitrary bans on candidates” and uneven playing field despite “better conditions” than in previous elections; in response, President Maduro 28 Nov called EU observers “enemies” and “spies”. After withdrawing from Mexico talks with opposition in Oct, Maduro 21 Nov said negotiations would not resume until Washington answered for “kidnapping” of govt envoy Alex Saab, who was extradited to U.S. by Cape Verde in Oct on money-laundering charges. After three-day visit to Venezuela, International Criminal Court (ICC)’s Prosecutor Karim Khan 3 Nov announced formal investigation into crimes against humanity committed in country since April 2017, including allegations of extrajudicial killings and torture by security forces during crackdown on anti-govt protests in April-July 2017; move marks first time Latin American country faces formal ICC scrutiny for possible crimes against humanity. Maduro immediately said his govt disagreed with decision but would collaborate with ICC; Maduro and Khan same day signed memorandum of understanding stipulating govt would “adopt all necessary measures” to ensure justice was done, and ICC would provide “support and active engagement”.

President Maduro suspended talks with opposition in protest against extradition of top ally to U.S. Cape Verde 16 Oct extradited businessman and Maduro’s close collaborator Alex Saab to U.S. on money-laundering charges. In response, govt immediately suspended talks with opposition, ahead of third round scheduled for 17-20 Oct in Mexico City; authorities same day also rearrested six oil executives, including five U.S. citizens, who had been under house arrest in capital Caracas on embezzlement charges. Opposition’s negotiating team and Norwegian facilitator 17 Oct urged govt to resume talks. Meanwhile, diplomatic spat erupted between EU and Caracas. In effort to reassure those concerned that EU election observation mission might “legitimise” regional and local elections scheduled for 21 Nov, Borrell 8 Oct said mission’s report, not its presence, would “legitimise or de-legitimise” process; govt same day condemned “interventionist” attitude and accused EU of favouring opposition. UN 14 Oct confirmed it would be sending expert panel to monitor elections. Opposition remained divided over fate of one of country’s major overseas assets, Colombia-based chemical company Monómeros, which has been under opposition control since 2019 and filed for bankruptcy in Sept. Senior member of opposition leader Juan Guaidó’s interim govt, Julio Borges, 12 Oct reiterated overseas assets should be supervised by multilateral agency rather than politicians. Guaidó’s Voluntad Popular party figure Leopoldo López same day insisted on extension of interim govt’s mandate when it expires in Jan 2022, arguing Maduro’s govt would otherwise regain control of overseas assets. Guaidó 12 Oct also said 2015-2021 opposition-controlled National Assembly had approved decree to designate new board of directors at Monómeros; other opposition parties however immediately rejected claim, said they had only approved establishment of commission of inquiry into Monómeros’ administration. Central Bank 1 Oct slashed six zeroes from bolívar currency to facilitate its use amid hyperinflation. Govt 5 Oct reopened border with Colombia after two-year closure due to political and diplomatic crisis. Imprisoned former Defence Minister Raul Baduel, considered political prisoner by opposition, 12 Oct died officially of COVID-19; UN and U.S. in following days called for independent investigation.

Govt and main opposition alliance reached limited agreements in Norwegian-facilitated talks, and President Maduro joined regional summit in first trip abroad in many months. Govt and opposition Unitary Platform made progress during second (3-6 Sept) and third (25-27 Sept) rounds of Norwegian-facilitated talks in Mexico City, reaching three partial agreements. First, parties reaffirmed country’s sovereignty over Essequibo region disputed with Guyana and rejected jurisdiction of International Court of Justice. Second, they agreed to set up six-person committee, National Board of Social Care, with three representatives from each side to address humanitarian crisis, including shortage of COVID-19 vaccines, and four-person working group to review problems arising from “overcompliance” with U.S. sanctions. Third, they agreed to begin process of setting up “consultation mechanisms” with “social and political actors” not represented at negotiation table. In move that threatens to stir tensions, govt 14 Sept however said it wished to include in talks businessman Alex Saab who is currently facing extradition from Cape Verde to U.S. on money-laundering charges; opposition delegation and U.S. quickly dismissed proposal. Govt delegation to talks 17 Sept publicly accused opposition of “sabotaging, conditioning and evading” terms agreed for talks; statement accused opposition leader Juan Guaidó of trying to break from his commitment to discuss return of country’s overseas assets, which have been under opposition control since 2019, to govt control. Chief Prosecutor Tarek William Saab 14 Sept had announced investigation into Guaidó for alleged treason and asset theft in relation to major overseas asset, Colombia-based chemical company Monómeros; opposition party Justice First 27 Sept announced it would no longer participate in Guaidó’s interim govt’s management of foreign assets. In first trip abroad since U.S. accused him of drug trafficking in early 2020, Maduro 18 Sept unexpectedly attended Community of Latin American and Caribbean States summit in Mexico City; Colombia, Uruguay and Paraguay presidents rejected his presence. UN fact-finding mission 16 Sept released new report, alleging country’s justice system does not provide protection to victims, but instead plays “significant role in the state’s repression of government opponents”. EU 29 Sept said it will send observers to regional and municipal elections set for Nov.

Govt and main opposition alliance held Norway-facilitated talks for first time since 2019, and in major strategic shift opposition announced participation in upcoming elections. In renewed attempt to ease political stalemate, President Maduro’s govt and alliance of main opposition parties 13-15 Aug held Norway-facilitated talks in Mexico for first time since 2019; agreed to continue dialogue with view to “establishing clear rules for political and social coexistence”. To reach potential agreement, Maduro has demanded that U.S. and European sanctions be lifted, while opposition coalition has called for electoral calendar leading to anticipated presidential election, release of imprisoned activists, and humanitarian aid including COVID-19 vaccines for Venezuelans; talks set to resume 3 Sept. Authorities 15 Aug conditionally released Freddy Guevara, close ally of opposition leader Juan Guaidó, a month after he was jailed on terrorism charges following rash of gang violence in capital Caracas; Guevara may join Mexico talks in place of Guaidó’s negotiator Carlos Vecchio, whose presence Maduro objected to given Vecchio’s role as Guaidó’s U.S. representative. Meanwhile, ruling United Socialist Party 8 Aug held primary elections to select candidates for Nov elections for governors and mayors. Opposition figure and former presidential candidate Henrique Capriles 11 Aug confirmed opposition party Justice First’s participation in polls; alliance of main opposition parties 31 Aug announced participation in polls, ending three-year boycott; Guevara same day called for “coexistence” with Maduro. Govt 19 Aug named country’s envoy to China Felix Plasencia as new FM in cabinet shakeup; several other ministers also replaced. Central Bank 5 Aug announced it will slash six zeroes from bolívar currency to facilitate its use amid hyperinflation. Govt telecommunications agency 3 Aug called off air radio show known for being critical of govt. After floods in Merida state (west) killed at least 20, Venezuela’s Bishops Conference 30 Aug accused “some civilian authorities” of preventing part of humanitarian aid from reaching affected population; press workers’ union same day denounced attacks by authorities against journalists covering floods.

President Maduro launched fresh crackdown on opposition in wake of deadly clashes between gangs and govt forces. Security forces 7-11 July launched offensive against organised crime gangs that control parts of capital Caracas; govt 10 July said fighting had left at least 26 dead, including four security officers and several civilians, and 38 injured; Maduro same day accused opposition and neighbouring Colombia of having armed and financed gangs to overthrow or assassinate him. Intelligence service 12 July arrested Freddy Guevara, close ally of mainstream opposition leader Juan Guaidó, on charges of terrorism and treason in relation to 7-11 July violence; Guaidó same day claimed armed security officers tried to detain him at his home in Caracas. Authorities in following days issued arrest warrants against several members of Guaidó’s Voluntad Popular party over accusations of involvement in 7-11 July gang violence and 14 July arrested three family members of one of them, Javier González, prompting party official Emilio Graterón to take refuge in Chilean embassy 17 July. Meanwhile, Maduro 13 July and 24 July said he was willing, under certain conditions, to negotiate with opposition in Aug with view to resolving political crisis. Earlier in month, police 2 July detained NGO Fundaredes Director Javier Tarazona and two other Fundaredes activists in Falcón state (north west), after NGO alleged links between govt officials and armed groups from Colombia; UN human rights chief Michelle Bachelet 5 July condemned “worrying example” of restriction of civil space. Washington 12 July announced minor relaxation of sanctions, allowing Venezuela to import liquid petroleum gas. EU mission 8 July arrived in Caracas to assess conditions to deploy observation mission ahead of Nov regional and local elections. Maduro 4 July gave World Health Organization’s COVAX vaccine-sharing programme “ultimatum” to send doses or return money paid by Venezuela. Following April deal with govt, UN World Food Programme 6 July began distributing meals to schoolchildren. Tensions with Colombia remained high. Bogotá 22 July said Venezuela-based Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia dissidents were behind June assassination attempt on President Duque; Duque 26 July called on EU to declare Maduro’s govt “promoter of terrorism”.

Mainstream opposition participation in upcoming elections increasingly likely; situation at Colombian border remained tense. Main opposition parties, including mainstream opposition leader Juan Guaidó’s Voluntad Popular (VP), reportedly assessing fielding some candidates in regional and local elections scheduled for Nov. VP delegation 21-25 June met with U.S. officials in U.S. capital Washington D.C. to discuss Guaidó’s efforts to establish dialogue with President Maduro; also visited Brussels and Paris 28-29 June. U.S., EU and Canada 25 June jointly said they would review sanctions policies if govt and opposition able to make “meaningful progress” toward transparent elections. Govt 28 June said they would no longer appoint so-called “protectors”, ruling-party supporters who de facto exercise same functions as elected official in opposition-led states. National Electoral Council 29 June said it would allow opposition coalition Democratic Unity Roundtable – which had secured majority in National Assembly in 2015 – to run in next elections. Spanish newspaper El País and Venezuelan website Armando.info 13 June alleged vast international network had allowed Venezuela to escape U.S. oil sanctions. Second international donors’ conference for Venezuela 17 June raised over $1.5mn in grants and loans to help Venezuelan refugees and migrants; donation pledges up by 45% compared to last year. UN High Commissioner for Refugees 19 June said Venezuela is world’s second country most affected by forced displacement with over 5mn displaced. Displaced civilians reportedly started to return home in Apure state at border with Colombia, where armed forces have been fighting against dissident faction of Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) known as 10th Front since March. Defence Minister Gen Padrino López 1 June said eight Venezuelan soldiers who had been abducted in April by 10th Front in Apure had been rescued; independent sources however attributed their return to negotiation. NGO Fundaredes 21 June and others in following days said FARC dissidents 15 June killed six indigenous civilians in Apure. Amid slow and erratic COVID-19 vaccination program, govt 10 June blamed U.S. “blockade” for $10mn shortfall in Venezuela’s payments to World Health Organization’s COVAX vaccine-sharing program; U.S. Treasury 17 June issued new guidance to ease COVID-19-related transactions despite sanctions.

President Maduro made several gestures signalling possible willingness to negotiate with rivals, including appointment of opposition members in new electoral authority. Govt-controlled National Assembly 4 May appointed new National Electoral Council (CNE), with five-person leadership including two opposition members, strongest opposition representation in 15 years – signalling Maduro’s possible openness to further concessions. New CNE divided opposition. Mainstream opposition leader Juan Guaidó same day said new CNE was creature of “illegitimate” National Assembly and would “drag country toward greater disaster”, while former presidential candidate Henrique Capriles, who heads moderate opposition politicians engaged in dialogue with Maduro, 5 May welcomed “essential first step to open the constitutional and democratic reconstruction path”. Guaidó 11 May proposed “National Salvation Accord” including timetable for “free and fair” presidential, parliamentary, regional and municipal elections, release of political prisoners and humanitarian aid access in exchange for progressive lifting of international sanctions and guarantees for current govt officials. Capriles 25 May expressed support for Guaidó’s proposal, which U.S. 11 May and EU 13 May also welcomed. CNE 13 May announced regional and municipal elections for 21 Nov. In response, Guaidó next day said opposition would not “lend itself to a farce”. Meanwhile, chief prosecutor 1 May announced charges against low-ranking govt and military officials in three high-profile political killings for which govt had hitherto denied responsibility; move came day after six imprisoned oil executives, whose freedom is sought by U.S., were released into house arrest. In Apure state near border with Colombia, low-intensity conflict continued between Venezuela’s military and dissident faction of Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) known as 10th Front, with clashes leaving at least seven soldiers injured near La Victoria municipality early May. After 10th Front 15 May released video of eight soldiers reportedly taken prisoners in Apure late April, Defence Minister Gen Padrino López same day confirmed soldiers were in guerrillas’ hands. Jesús Santrich, leader of another FARC dissident faction known as “Segunda Marquetalia”, reportedly killed 17 May in Venezuela.

Deadly clashes between military and Colombian guerrilla groups in border region fuelled tensions between Caracas and Bogotá. Amid ongoing fighting between Venezuelan military and alleged dissidents of Colombian Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) in Apure border state, Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino 5 April reported nine combatants and eight soldiers killed since violence started 21 March; 28 April reported another eight soldiers killed in renewed combat over past few days. FM Jorge Arreaza 6 April said govt was requesting UN assistance in deactivating anti-personnel mines allegedly planted by guerrilla groups on Venezuelan territory; also asked UN to investigate violence. President Maduro and other govt officials repeatedly accused Colombia’s President Duque of supporting armed groups operating along border and seeking “military escalation” between two countries. Duque 13 April decried Maduro’s leadership as “illegitimate”. NGO Human Rights Watch 26 April accused Venezuelan security forces of “egregious abuses against local residents” during operations in Apure state, including extrajudicial killings of at least four civilians – three men and a woman –, torture, arbitrary arrests and prosecution of civilians in military courts. World Food Programme (WFP) and govt 19 April reached deal over WFP’s access to Venezuela, paving way for supply of 185,000 meals for school children by end of year and up to 1.5mn in 2023. Mainstream opposition leader Juan Guaidó 6 April launched broader political front, comprising his existing four-party coalition and six smaller parties; Guaidó said move would improve coordination within mainstream opposition, but some members complained about lack of consultation ahead of launch. Negotiations continued between Maduro’s govt and moderate opposition leaders notably on appointment of more inclusive National Electoral Council (CNE); Guaidó-led coalition however continued to oppose talks, rejecting any CNE not appointed by “legitimate” (2015-2021) National Assembly. Maduro 18 April said govt had paid required amount to World Health Organization to access COVID-19 vaccines under COVAX mechanism. Meanwhile, in parallel move, Guaidó-led National Assembly 22 April approved use of additional $100mn in govt funds – frozen in U.S. accounts as part of sanctions against Maduro’s govt – to purchase COVID-19 vaccines.

Diplomatic efforts resumed to resolve political crisis, and clashes erupted between military and Colombian guerrilla group at border with Colombia. Norwegian delegation 9 March arrived in capital Caracas in attempt to revive comprehensive talks between President Maduro’s govt and mainstream opposition; initiative comes as civil society organisations and opposition faction led by former presidential candidate Henrique Capriles have been trying to negotiate with govt appointment of more inclusive National Electoral Council (CNE) ahead of regional and local elections due by late 2021. Mainstream opposition leader Juan Guaidó 3 March said he would support appointment of new CNE only if its members were not chosen unilaterally by govt-controlled National Assembly. National Assembly 16 March extended deadline for appointing CNE by two weeks, potentially allowing mainstream opposition to put forward candidates; but opposition did not take up opportunity. During visit to Caracas, Spanish deputy FM Cristina Gallach 28-29 March discussed political crisis with govt, opposition and business representatives. Guaidó, recognised by U.S. as Venezuela’s legitimate president, and U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken 2 March discussed “return to democracy in Venezuela through free and fair elections” and “urgent humanitarian needs”. UN Fact-Finding Mission on Venezuela 10 March said police forces committed at least 200 extrajudicial killings in 2021, and UN human rights chief Bachelet next day called for “prompt and independent investigations” into ongoing “extra-judicial executions”. Clashes between military and Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) dissidents 20-21 March erupted in Apure border state, leaving at least two Venezuelan soldiers dead; Colombian govt 28 March said 4,700 had sought refuge in Colombia since fighting started; refugees reportedly accused Venezuelan soldiers of abuses, including killing civilians. U.S. 8 March granted Venezuelan migrants temporary protected status, allowing them to stay and work in U.S. for 18 months. Amid negotiations between govt and mainstream opposition for access to COVID-19 vaccines under World Health Organization’s COVAX mechanism, mainstream opposition 19 March said it would seek to use $30mn in govt funds – frozen in U.S. accounts as part of sanctions against Maduro’s govt – to pay for vaccines. Maduro however reiterated refusal of AstraZeneca vaccine, one of main vaccines under COVAX, citing side effects.