Amid COVID-19 crisis, protests and looting erupted over lack of food and fuel, several journalists critical of govt response arrested, and U.S. pressure on President Maduro to force him to leave office continued. Maduro 11 April extended countrywide COVID-19 lockdown for further 30 days. Security forces throughout month reportedly detained several medical personnel and journalists who questioned govt’s claim it had “contained” spread of virus, charging some with “spreading hate”. Notably, press association 18 April reported seven arbitrary arrests of journalists 1-15 April. Isolated protests and lootings erupted in several areas, especially in east, over lack of food and fuel amid COVID-19 pandemic and collapse of oil industry; notably, man was reportedly shot dead 23 April during looting in Upata town. Opposition leader Juan Guaidó 21 April denied media report of secret exploratory talks between his and Maduro’s allies. Lack of clarity persisted over whether parliamentary elections, due this year, could take place in light of COVID-19 crisis; Maduro mid-April said he was unsure if vote would proceed. Despite FM Jorge Arreaza’s 31 March rejection of U.S. offer to lift sanctions in exchange for political transition – whereby Maduro and Guaidó would step aside and executive power be held by “Council of State”, nominated by govt and opposition, until presidential election – govt in subsequent days reportedly showed willingness to consider proposal. Following March indictment of Maduro and others on drugs-related charges, U.S. continued to escalate pressure on govt. U.S. 1 April said that its forthcoming, large-scale anti-drugs operation in southern Caribbean, which will double its naval presence in region, will also serve declared aim of cutting off resources to Maduro govt; govt immediately accused Washington of “slander and threats”. UN Security Council (UNSC) 22 April debated Venezuela at virtual “closed door” session, for first time in a year, at request of Russia, which criticised U.S. policy; UNSC met again 28 April to discuss humanitarian crisis in country.

Amid COVID-19 pandemic, U.S. charged President Maduro and several top aides with drug trafficking, opposition leader Juan Guaidó called for govt of national unity, but excluding Maduro, and Colombia closed its official border crossings with Venezuela. U.S. attorney general 26 March announced indictment of Maduro, Defence Minister Padrino López and others on drugs-related charges in major escalation of U.S. administration’s campaign to pressure Maduro to leave office. Venezuelan chief prosecutor within hours announced investigation into Guaidó in connection with arms shipment seized in Colombia two days earlier. U.S. Sec State Pompeo 31 March offered to lift sanctions in exchange for political transition; FM Jorge Arreaza immediately rejected proposal. Amid concerns over effect of coronavirus epidemic on country’s oil-dependent economy and weakened health care system, Maduro 13 March declared “state of alarm”, allowing him to restrict civil rights; govt subsequently deployed armed forces and militia members to curtail movement and suspended most international flights. International Monetary Fund (IMF) 17 March turned down Maduro’s request for $5bn to deal with COVID-19, citing lack of clarity over recognition of govt. COVID-19 spread limited opposition mobilisation; police 10 March fired tear gas to repel Guaidó’s supporters attempting to march on parliament building from which govt excluded Guaidó-aligned MPs in Jan; opposition later suspended planned demonstrations due to coronavirus. Guaidó 28 March proposed national emergency govt, excluding Maduro but with all political forces represented, to deal with epidemic. Humanitarian situation in Colombia-Venezuela border region remained dire. After Colombia 14 March closed official border crossings amid COVID-19 pandemic, VP Rodriguez described move as “grotesque irresponsibility”, accused Colombian govt of handing border control to “paramilitaries”. Previously unknown group “Venezuelan Patriot Command” claimed 7 March fire at electoral authority (CNE) warehouse in capital Caracas that destroyed voting machines for parliamentary elections due this year; CNE chairperson immediately insisted elections would go ahead; however COVID-19 emergency led to 16 March suspension of govt and opposition efforts to agree on composition of new CNE.

Political standoff continued as opposition leader Juan Guaidó consolidated international standing and govt held military drills, while U.S. launched new sanctions targeting govt. Guaidó 11 Feb returned from foreign tour in which leaders of Colombia, UK, France, Germany, U.S. and EU foreign policy chief received him as head of state; security forces did not arrest Guaidó although he had left country in defiance of travel ban, but anti-Guaidó demonstrators at airport beat and robbed journalists trying to cover his return, authorities arrested Guaidó’s uncle – who was travelling with him – on accusations of bringing explosives into country and 17 Feb suspended operations in country of airline which had carried him home on same accusations. Govt 15-16 Feb held nationwide military exercises involving both army and civilian militia, volunteer reservist force created by former President Chavez and formally incorporated to regular forces in early Feb, with President Maduro claiming involvement of 2.3mn troops, while security forces deployed Russian-built surface-to-air missiles near Caracas international airport and at eastern Caracas air base; Maduro 17 Feb said exercises would continue indefinitely. U.S. 7 Feb announced sanctions against state-run airline Conviasa and 17 Feb against trading arm of Russian state-linked oil company Rosneft, reportedly responsible for 70% of Venezuela’s oil exports and supplying govt with oil products; in response, Maduro 18 Feb declared oil industry emergency and named presidential commission headed by former VP Tareck El Aissami to restructure sector. Authorities late Feb announced they would allow companies to raise capital in foreign currency as Maduro liberalises economy. Despite ongoing disagreement on who presides National Assembly, govt and opposition 26 Feb agreed on composition of parliamentary committee to propose new members of electoral authority.

Political crisis deepened as MP Luis Parra, backed by President Maduro, and opposition leader Juan Guaidó both claimed National Assembly (AN) leadership after Maduro’s govt moved to take back control of opposition-dominated parliament. Ahead of scheduled vote to elect AN president for next twelve months, govt 5 Jan deployed National Guard to prevent opposition MPs from entering parliament building. Maduro’s new ally Parra, expelled from opposition Primero Justicia Party over allegations of corruption in Dec, declared himself AN president same day, but opposition said voting session did not reach quorum of 84 MPs (out of 167). Guaidó 5 Jan convened session away from parliament building, said 100 MPs re-elected him as AN president. Guaidó 8 Jan held session in parliament building after forcing his way past police cordon in standoff with security forces, but abandoned plan to hold new session there after paramilitary groups known as colectivos 15 Jan attacked convoy carrying several opposition MPs to parliament building and assaulted journalists. In defiance of order banning him from leaving country, Guaidó 19 Jan started foreign tour in bid to shore up international backing, meeting with leaders of Colombia, UK, France, Canada, U.S. Sec State Pompeo and EU foreign policy chief Borrell.

Govt mid-Dec launched fresh wave of judicial attacks on opposition MPs ahead of 5 Jan vote to ratify Juan Guaidó as president for next 12 months. Govt-controlled Constituent Assembly 17 Dec lifted parliamentary immunity of four MPs accused, inter alia, of treason. Police special forces (FAES) 20 Dec arrested another, Gilber Caro, without specifying charges. Guaidó 11 Dec admitted failure so far to oust Maduro, promised talks with all sectors of opposition to determine way forward; however opposition deeply divided over whether to participate in 2020 legislative elections. Guaidó and his “govt” tarnished by corruption scandals involving opposition legislators and individuals linked to his team late Nov/early Dec, including online news site exposé of eight opposition legislators allegedly involved in attempts to clear names of corrupt businessmen linked to govt’s food distribution scheme CLAP (Local Committees for Supply and Production); Guaidó ordered investigation. Lawmakers claimed Maduro govt actively seeking to corrupt members of opposition, offering individuals up to $1mn to switch sides. Likelihood of foreign military intervention receded further with passage by U.S. Congress 16 Dec of appropriations bill rejecting use of force in Venezuela and explicitly endorsing strategy of “direct, credible negotiations”; also allocates $400m for humanitarian assistance. Despite partial reactivation of economy, due to informal dollarisation, openings for foreign capital and sanctions-evasion schemes, as well as stabilisation of oil production, severe petrol shortages over Christmas/New Year brought lengthy queues. Maduro 23 Dec accused Colombia, Brazil and Peru of backing 22 Dec raid on 513 Jungle Infantry Batallion in Bolívar state in which dozens of weapons were stolen and (according to govt) one soldier killed. Govt demanded Brazil return 5 military deserters accused of attack who fled across border.

Despite reports of attempts to revive Norway-facilitated negotiations between Maduro regime and opposition led by Juan Guaidó, prospects for resumption of talks remained remote; govt and minority parties involved in National Dialogue initiative continued to insist they offer route to political settlement. Process of releasing political prisoners appeared to have stalled, however month saw progress on formation of parliamentary commission that will consider changing composition of National Electoral Council, key element of deal struck between govt and minority parties. National Assembly 13 Nov approved nine-member committee that, along with yet-to-be-chosen members of civil society, will appoint commission; three members belong to ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV). On international front, resignation and exile of Bolivian President Evo Morales (see Bolivia) following his controversial re-election bid gave encouragement to Venezuelan opposition; interim govt in La Paz immediately recognised Guaidó as interim president, along with El Salvador bringing number of countries who do so to 56. Guaidó called nationwide demonstrations for 16 Nov, however attendance in tens of thousands in Caracas and smaller numbers elsewhere seen as disappointing; thousands of govt supporters also rallied. Amid speculation over foreign policy position of new left-leaning Argentine govt, incoming Argentine FM 29 Nov said that his country would not leave Lima Group, set up in 2017 to address Venezuela’s crisis, and that foreign relations should not be ideological in nature; Argentina also likely to join Mexico-led Montevideo mechanism, which advocates unconditional talks between Venezuelan govt and opposition; however new Uruguayan government under Luis Lacalle seen as likely to leave it.

Govt continued “National Dialogue” with minor opposition parties following Sept collapse of Norwegian-backed talks with main opposition, resuming participation in National Assembly (AN) ahead of elections due 2020, releasing some political prisoners and offering to negotiate changes to electoral authority. However, opposition dismissed initiative, with opposition MPs saying ruling-United Socialist Party of Venezuela and its allies (Patria Para Todos and Communist Party of Venezuela) had made no efforts to promote an agreement in parliament. Political violence continued; body of opposition political activist Edmundo Rada, a member of opposition leader Juan Guaidó’s Voluntad Popular party, found burnt and shot 18 Oct in outskirts of Caracas; Rada had been under police special forces’ surveillance; party leaders said they interpreted murder as political message. UN Human Rights Council 17 Oct controversially elected Venezuelan govt as member despite opponents of its candidacy arguing govt’s human rights record, and refusal to cooperate with Council’s fact-finding mission, made it unfit for membership. Eduardo Stein, joint special representative of UN refugee and migration agencies, said 4.5mn Venezuelans had left country since 2015, stating number could be higher when including those using illegal crossing points.

Govt-opposition talks suspended, while relations with Colombia continued to deteriorate. Following govt’s suspension of Norwegian-mediated talks in Barbados in Aug, opposition led by “interim President” Juan Guaidó 15 Sept announced it was pulling out of dialogue, saying “Barbados mechanism is exhausted”. Opposition next day revealed plan proposed to govt which included President Maduro and Guaidó stepping down from posts while a govt council – including opposition, govt and armed forces representatives – presided over free presidential elections; opposition stated lack of govt response prevented return to negotiations. Govt next day announced it had been talking secretly and separately to group of minor opposition parties, including Avanzada Progresista led by former governor and 2018 presidential candidate Henri Falcón, and had reached initial agreement; agreement would see pro-govt MPs return to parliament, new electoral authority formed and release of some political prisoners. Day after 16 Sept public signing of agreement, govt released National Assembly (AN) VP Edgar Zambrano from military prison; pro-govt MPs returned to AN 24 Sept. Guaidó-led opposition dismissed agreement as “pantomime”, accusing Maduro of negotiating in bad faith; AN 17 Sept passed motion ratifying Guaidó as “interim President” until free elections are held. Relations with Colombia deteriorated over alleged Venezuelan support for Colombian guerrillas, while govt accused Colombia of trying to recruit Venezuelan soldiers to sabotage air defence system, reportedly responding with military drills at border since 10 Sept (see Colombia). Govt accused Guaidó of links to Colombian paramilitaries after photos were published of him 12 Sept with “Rastrojos” gang leaders. Organization of American States Permanent Council 11 Sept agreed to activation of regional defence Rio Treaty, with FMs from eighteen signatory countries 23 Sept meeting in New York; resolution focused on capture/extradition/punishment of regime associates involved in terrorism and/or organised crime. International Contact Group met same day. UN Human Rights Council 27 Sept voted to send “international-fact finding mission” to country to “investigate extrajudicial executions, enforced disappearances” and other human rights abuses since 2014.

Political crisis continued as U.S. announced latest round of sanctions and govt suspended dialogue with opposition. U.S. 5 Aug announced new sanctions against govt, freezing all Venezuelan state assets in U.S. and threatening secondary sanctions against those doing business with President Maduro’s govt; in response, govt accused U.S. of “economic terrorism” and 7 Aug suspended involvement in Norwegian-mediated talks with opposition in Barbados, though did not break off talks completely; U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton 6 Aug accused Maduro of using negotiations to buy time, saying it was “time for action”. UN Human Rights Chief Bachelet 8 Aug expressed concern that “extremely broad” sanctions fail to contain measures to mitigate impact “on most vulnerable sectors of population”. Numerous media including Associated Press 18 Aug reported that Diosdado Cabello, head of govt-controlled National Constituent Assembly (ANC) had begun talking with U.S. through intermediary; U.S. President Trump and Maduro 20 Aug both confirmed secret Venezuela-U.S. dialogue underway. Govt continued suppression of opposition; ANC 12 Aug lifted parliamentary immunity from four MPs; ANC also appointed special commission to determine whether to bring forward legislative elections due late 2020.

Govt and opposition dialogue resumed while UN human rights chief released report into human rights violations. Govt and opposition delegations 15 July resumed talks in Barbados; Norwegian govt, mediating negotiations, said intention was for talks to be “continuous and expeditious” with delegations due to meet each week for several days to find solution to crisis. President Maduro 19 July said ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela should prepare for “epic battle” to recover opposition-controlled National Assembly (AN) in as yet unannounced parliamentary elections; opposition leader and “interim President” Juan Guaidó 16 July said “real solution” to crisis was close but three days later said “tough days” lay ahead and there were “no magic solutions”. Amid continued opposition division between those seeking dialogue and hardliners pushing for international military intervention, AN 23 July approved law restoring country’s membership of regional defence Rio Treaty, which some in opposition see as step to requesting foreign military assistance; however, Guaidó insisted treaty was not primarily about military intervention. International support for Norwegian-sponsored talks remained strong with International Contact Group, headed by EU and Uruguay, and UN Sec Gen Guterres reiterating support for talks; U.S. Special Representative for Venezuela Elliot Abrams 12 July expressed hope negotiations would remain confidential so as to be constructive. Contact Group’s Special Representative Enrique Iglesias 9 July held talks in Caracas with both Maduro and Guaidó. UN Human Rights Chief Bachelet 5 July presented report accusing govt of committing “numerous human rights violations” including torture and extrajudicial killings; govt filed over 70 objections to report and said report failed to take into account evidence govt presented. Report called for dissolution of police special forces (FAES) but Maduro 19 July expressed support for FAES. Repression of opposition continued; govt 12 July arrested two of Guaidó’s bodyguards, accusing them of trafficking military weapons. U.S. 21 July said Venezuelan air force “aggressively shadowed” U.S. reconnaissance aircraft in international airspace 19 July, govt claimed plane entered its airspace. Mass power-cut hit most of country 22 July; govt blamed U.S. “electromagnetic attack”.