Political crisis continued amid international efforts to foster govt-opposition dialogue, while opposition remained divided over whether to negotiate with govt and over allegations of corruption. Opposition split between those seeking dialogue and hardliners pushing for opposition leader and “interim President” Juan Guaidó to request international military intervention. Early June allegations that two of Guaidó’s representatives in Colombia embezzled money assigned to cover cost of Venezuelan military deserters heightened tensions within opposition; anti-dialogue faction, backed by Organization of American States Sec Gen Almagro, demanded full investigation, while Guaidó’s chief representative to Colombia, Humberto Calderón, said investigation began two months ago and neared completion. Russian military plane reportedly landed 24 June; Russian embassy 26 June announced its military specialists were leaving country. UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Bachelet 19-21 June visited Venezuela, meeting with govt, opposition and victims of human rights abuses; visit followed lengthy UN negotiations with govt over visit, as well as govt’s release of some political prisoners and consent to possible establishment of a permanent UN human rights office in Caracas. Human rights group Penal Forum and relatives of detainees reported govt 21-23 June detained six members of military and police, including an Air Force general; navy captain Rafael Acosta, one of six arrested, who according to Lima Group showed “visible signs of torture” when brought to military tribunal 28 June, died in custody 29 June, sparking opposition and international outcry. International efforts to find negotiated end to crisis continued; Norwegian govt continued push for resumption of May talks between govt and opposition representatives in Oslo; Sweden hosted preliminary meeting of relevant external actors including Russia, Cuba, Vatican and UN 13 June. Amid continued economic deterioration, UN High Commission for Refugees 7 June released updated figures showing 4mn had fled country. Mass migration continued to cause regional strain; Peru 14 June introduced new immigration rules requiring Venezuelans to obtain visa before arriving at border, leading to large increase in numbers arriving in days before deadline, including 6,000 crossing from Ecuador 13 June.

Political crisis continued as govt cracked down on opposition in wake of failed April uprisings, while divisions in opposition resurfaced over whether to negotiate with govt. Following opposition leader and “interim President” Juan Guaidó’s unsuccessful 30 April appeal to security forces to remove President Maduro, opposition supporters 1 May held further anti-govt demonstrations in Caracas and elsewhere; demonstrators clashed with security forces, with one woman shot dead and dozens injured. Guaidó promised further protests and series of strikes. State security (Sebin) 8 May detained deputy president of opposition controlled-National Assembly. Pro-govt National Constituent Assembly (ANC) revoked parliamentary immunity of at least fourteen MPs; four MPs took refuge in embassies, one fled country and four allegedly went into hiding; govt suppression has led to arrest, flight or refuge in foreign embassies of 15 of opposition’s 112 MPs since 30 April uprising. Maduro 20 May announced plan to bring forward parliamentary (AN) elections, previously due Dec 2020; govt same day extended ANC’s two-year term until 31 Dec 2020. In efforts to open negotiations to end crisis, govt and opposition representations met in Oslo for confidential talks facilitated by Norway mid-May; talks ended 29 May, reportedly without agreement. Some in opposition criticised talks after details were leaked. Guaidó admitted authorising delegation but insisted there would be no negotiations unless Maduro stepped down. International Contact Group, headed by EU and Uruguay, extended its mandate beyond original 90-day deadline during meeting in Costa Rica 6-7 May, and visited Caracas 16-17 May, meeting with Maduro and Guaidó. Effect of U.S. sanctions and economic crisis continued to be felt with severe petrol shortages in much of country mid-May, including in Caracas.

Failed uprising by opposition leadership 30 April led to clashes and further polarised political standoff, increasing fears of violent domestic or international escalation in coming days and weeks amid worsening humanitarian crisis. Opposition leader and “interim President” Juan Guaidó 30 April appealed to security forces to join “final phase” to remove President Maduro, in move govt labelled “attempted coup”. Defecting soldiers and protesters clashed with pro-govt troops around military air base, leaving scores injured; pro- and anti-govt protests took place elsewhere in capital and other cities. Security forces subdued uprising, however Guaidó reiterated calls for mass nationwide demonstrations for 1 May; Maduro promised events would “not go unpunished”, leading to concerns over further outbreaks of violence. Earlier in month, International Federation of the Red Cross 16 April began first shipment of humanitarian aid intended to assist 650,000 Venezuelans, following late March agreement with govt and opposition, who both claimed credit for arrival of aid. UN Emergency Relief Coordinator Mark Lowcock 10 April told UN Security Council 7mn people needed assistance, while some local NGOs say figure is higher; Lowcock also said 1.3mn of total 1.9mn requiring food aid are children under five; further deterioration anticipated as full impact of sanctions hits. Organization of American States 9 April voted 18-9 to recognise representative of Guaidó as ambassador, unseating Maduro’s representative. Guaidó toured west of country 13-16 April, drawing large crowds despite alleged harassment by paramilitaries and authorities. Govt’s attempts to disrupt opposition continued; govt-controlled Constituent Assembly 2 April removed Guaidó’s parliamentary immunity following Supreme Court’s call for it to be lifted on grounds he defied ban on leaving country. Following Feb nationwide electricity blackouts, Information Minister 11 April alleged leading opposition members including Guaidó planned acts of sabotage against electrical grid and banking system. Govt’s international isolation continued with U.S. and Canada imposing additional sanctions against govt figures; U.S. also imposed sanctions on companies and vessels involved in shipment of oil to Cuba, and sanctioned Central Bank.

Govt and opposition maintained hardline stances amid ongoing international efforts to end political crisis, while nationwide electricity blackouts signalled devastating effects of failing to resolve it. Opposition leader and  “interim President” Juan Guaidó, recognised by U.S. and allies, returned to Venezuela 4 March following regional tour, arriving at Caracas airport despite speculation he would be arrested. Police 21 March arrested Guaidó’s chief of staff Roberto Marrero, later charged in connection with alleged “terrorist plot”; U.S. Sec State Pompeo warned of “consequences”, although U.S. officials downplayed likelihood of military intervention. Massive electric grid failure 7 March left around 90% of country without power, with Caracas suffering blackout for two days and other areas for over a week; blackout led to cut-off in water supplies and communications, unknown number of deaths in hospitals as back-generators failed, and outbreaks of looting, particularly in Maracaibo city (north west). President Maduro’s govt blamed sabotage by U.S. and local allies, although experts reportedly blamed fire underneath power lines and faulty maintenance. Widespread and lengthy blackouts returned 25 March, which this time govt blamed on “sniper”, and again 29 March. Two Russian military planes landed 23 March, reportedly carrying military equipment and dozens of troops; Russia cited fulfilment of existing military contracts, but U.S. President Trump 27 March said Russia must “get out”. International Federation of the Red Cross 29 March said it had reached agreement with govt and opposition to begin mass aid relief mid-April. Amid increasing tensions with international actors backing Guaidó, govt 6 March declared German ambassador (who accompanied Guaidó on his return from airport in official vehicle) persona non grata, giving him 48 hours to leave. U.S. 14 March removed last diplomats from Venezuela and closed embassy; FM Arreaza said govt expelled them while Pompeo said their presence had been “constraint” on U.S. policy. International Contact Group, headed by EU and Uruguay, met at ministerial level in Quito, Ecuador 28 March, sent mission to Caracas mid-March primarily to discuss humanitarian assistance; Contact Group has given itself until May to determine whether mediated settlement is possible.

Turmoil continued as govt and opposition hardened their positions and clashes sparked by opposition’s attempted delivery of humanitarian aid prompted fears of further violence. Large quantities of international aid including medical supplies and food, mostly transported by U.S., arrived at Colombian border and opposition leader and regionally supported interim President Juan Guaidó announced 23 Feb as date for first aid shipment into country; govt shut all border points including main planned delivery routes; President Maduro 21 Feb called aid a “provocation” and suggested it was precursor to U.S. military invasion. Army 22 Feb opened fire on indigenous protesters attempting to keep border with Brazil open in Gran Sabana region, killing at least two. Clashes broke out as opposition activists and civilians 23 Feb attempted to bring aid across borders with Colombia and Brazil, with security forces firing teargas and rubber bullets and masked civilian paramilitaries firing live rounds; more people reported killed in Santa Elena de Uairén on Brazilian border, hundreds injured in all; over 400 members of security forces, mostly National Guard, deserted by crossing border near Cúcuta, according to Colombian govt. Armed forces mostly maintained loyalty to Maduro govt during month, although largely refrained from attacking massive opposition demonstrations taking place across country; however, severe repression continued, including police death squads’ reported use of summary executions. International opinion remained divided, with most actors rejecting military intervention. UN Sec-Gen Guterres 22 Feb met with FM Arreaza in New York, urging govt to refrain from using force against protesters, while Guaidó 25 Feb met regional members of Lima Group and U.S. VP Pence in Bogotá to discuss crisis, during which Latin American countries voiced opposition to military intervention; Pence announced further sanctions against members of govt and called on other nations to increase pressure. EU accelerated creation of International Contact Group at meeting in Uruguay 7 Feb, with stated purpose to seek path to free and fair elections under external observation. Guaidó 22 Feb left country clandestinely for Colombia, stating intention to return after visiting Brazil, Europe and U.S.

Country thrown into turmoil as new opposition leader claimed role of acting president, backed by mass anti-govt protests and with support from foreign partners including U.S., setting up confrontation with govt of President Maduro and prompting fears of violent escalation in coming days and weeks. Opposition-controlled National Assembly (NA) 5 Jan elected relative unknown Juan Guaidó of Voluntad Popular party as its new chairman, five days before Maduro was sworn in for second six-year term as president in ceremony boycotted by U.S., EU and many Latin American nations who question legitimacy of his May 2018 re-election. National security police 13 Jan briefly arrested Guaidó, in incident which govt attributed to rogue agents acting in partnership with parts of opposition. Amid growing opposition to Maduro, including dozens of small-scale protests against govt and rising prices in formerly pro-govt areas in Caracas 21 Jan, Guaidó 23 Jan declared himself “interim president”, citing Art. 233 of constitution, in move opposition hardliners and foreign supporters had been demanding. Hundreds of thousands protested across country against govt same day, with over 40 reportedly killed as security forces cracked down over succeeding days. U.S. immediately announced its recognition; Maduro accused U.S. of leading “coup attempt” and announced severing of diplomatic relations, ordering all U.S. diplomatic and consular staff to leave within 72 hours, though later backing down. International community divided with all major countries in the Americas except Mexico officially recognising Guaidó as acting president and many European countries saying they would follow unless free elections were called, but China, Turkey and Russia declaring support for Maduro. European parliament 30 Jan voted to recognise Guaidó as acting interim president. UN Security Council debated Venezuela 26 Jan without passing resolution. EU 31 Jan announced creation of international contact group “to help achieve a peaceful and democratic solution through fresh credible elections”. U.S. 28 Jan imposed sweeping oil sanctions, announcing it would divert any profits from Venezuelan oil sold in U.S. to accounts controlled by Guaidó and transfer control of U.S. refining network to interim govt; over half Venezuela’s oil income comes from U.S. sales.

President Maduro’s planned swearing in for second term 10 Jan, following his disputed May 2018 election, prompted growing domestic and international opposition, with some regional govts including Colombia indicating they may close their embassies or break off relations. Peruvian FM Popolizio 7 Dec said his govt would propose to Lima Group that govts break relations with Venezuela on 10 Jan, although members split on plan; Venezuelan FM Arreaza accused Lima Group govts of corruption and human rights violations. Opposition parties in National Assembly (AN) reportedly agreed during month that Juan Guaidó of Voluntad Popular party would be elected as AN chair 5 Jan in potential consolidation of moderate majority leadership of AN. Two Russian nuclear-capable bombers 10 Dec landed at airport in Maiquetía, Vargas state for “training exercise”; defence minister Gen Vladimir Padrino López commented the two countries were “preparing to defend Venezuela”; official Russian news agency TASS indicated visit was intended to send message to U.S., which criticised visit. Maduro 17 Dec said civil militia had grown to 1.6mn members and its mission was to defend country against external aggression.

Amid ongoing economic and social crisis and international isolation further reports emerged of splits in both govt and opposition, with reported divisions between govt factions over new constitution supposedly being drafted by National Constituent Assembly (ANC). ANC head Diosado Cabello, who is seen as rival to President Maduro, 12 Nov said there was still no draft, while some factions say only minor reform needed; followed Maduro’s late-Oct dismissal of head of intelligence service and Cabello ally Gen. González López. Opposition remained hampered by internal disputes. Opposition-controlled National Assembly 6 Nov approved motion of censure against former Spanish PM Zapatero for his efforts to mediate talks between govt and opposition, however almost half MPs opposed motion, arguing it would damage relations with Spain; hardline opposition branded them “traitors” and “collaborationists”, prompting criticism from former opposition presidential candidate Henrique Capriles. But majority of National Assembly members 13 Nov approved resolution favouring negotiated solution, and signs emerged that handover of Assembly presidency 5 Jan from one party to another may proceed as agreed. Frente Amplio opposition front held successful congress 26 Nov in another sign of possible restoration of partial opposition unity. However, 27 Nov sentencing in U.S. of former state treasurer Alejandro Andrade for corruption brought spate of allegations from opposition hardliners that their moderate rivals had received part of Andrade’s spoils. Colombia’s second guerrilla group National Liberation Army (ELN) attacked  National Guard in Puerto Ayacucho on Colombia-Venezuela border 4 Nov, killing at least three; opposition accuses govt of forging alliance with ELN to control illegal mining. Humanitarian and economic crisis continued; UN 8 Nov updated its previous Oct assessment of Venezuelans who had left country since 2015 from 1.9mn to 3mn, while International Monetary Fund estimated inflation rate of 1.2mn% by end of 2018. U.S. 1 Nov announced new sanctions including ban on U.S. citizens trading Venezuelan gold.

Amid deepening economic and social crisis, ongoing intransigence by President Maduro’s govt and opposition leadership vacuum, EU foreign ministers 15 Oct discussed initiative by Spain, Portugal and Italy to seek negotiated solution to crisis; Spain denied any intention to ease international pressure on Maduro. After meeting, EU foreign policy chief Mogherini said sanctions would be maintained and conditions were not right for dialogue or mediation; EU will instead examine establishing “contact group” to explore possibility of negotiated settlement. Govt 8 Oct announced death “by suicide” of Caracas city councillor and political prisoner Fernando Albán, who had been held at national security police headquarters since returning from UN General Assembly 5 Oct; official explanation of his death widely questioned, with opposition claiming death was result of torture; foreign govts and international bodies called for independent investigation into Albán’s death. Govt had accused Albán of working with exiled opposition leader Julio Borges – whom Albán met at UN – in planning Aug drone attack on President Maduro. UN refugee agency 1 Oct announced 1.9mn Venezuelans had left country since 2015. Chair of U.S. Senate foreign relations committee Bob Corker 8-10 Oct visited Caracas in ‘private initiative’ to hold talks with Maduro and some opposition figures. Colombia’s second guerrilla group National Liberation Army suspected of carrying out mass killing of at least sixteen people in Bolívar state 18 Oct (see Colombia). Russian deputy finance minister 30 Oct met with govt officials in Caracas to discuss economic reforms to tackle financial crisis.

Amid acute regional concern over political impasse and humanitarian situation inside Venezuala, President Maduro 13-16 Sept visited China in search of fresh loans to relieve govt’s financial crisis, but reportedly failed to secure them. Among agreements signed, Maduro ceded further 9.9% share in joint Sinovensa oil project, and signed up for “active participation” in construction of China’s Belt and Road initiative; new Chinese assistance will come in form of investments in oil, gas and gold, rather than loans to govt. Venezuela already owes China $20bn and has had to ask for repayment terms to be relaxed. Official Chinese statements expressed confidence in Maduro’s Aug economic reforms, but hyperinflation reported at around 220% per month. Economic crisis left shops struggling to stock basic goods; producers face spiralling costs, increased crime, power cuts and govt-backed land seizures, particularly in border regions. With Venezuelans continuing to flee country, eleven regional govts 3-4 Sept met in Ecuadoran capital Quito to discuss crisis, stressing need for regional solution and agreeing to accept expired Venezuelan passports as valid; Venezuelan govt declined to attend meeting and continued to deny existence of mass exodus, saying it is helping repatriate many “repentant” migrants. Political impasse and worsening humanitarian crisis fuelled talk of possible internationally-led or -backed military intervention. Speaking at Colombian-Venezuelan border, Organization of American States (OAS) Sec Gen Almagro 14 Sept said no option should be excluded, later clarifying he meant humanitarian intervention; ten members of Lima Group of govts issued statement rejecting use of force, but U.S. President Trump speaking at UN General Assembly 26 Sept reiterated that all options were open; also said would be willing to meet Maduro, but although Maduro flew to New York no meeting took place. In unprecedented move, six regional countries 26 Sept called on International Criminal Court to investigate Maduro govt for crimes against humanity. UN Human Rights Council next day passed resolution deploring situation in Venezuela, calling on govt to allow in humanitarian assistance and on UN human rights chief to investigate and report.