Apparent attempt to assassinate President Maduro shook country, while govt’s new economic reform package widely expected to worsen economic and humanitarian crisis and intensify exodus of Venezuelans to neighbouring countries. Two drones carrying explosives blew up –  one within 50 metres of Maduro –  4 Aug during military parade in Caracas; govt said seven soldiers injured; group calling themselves “Soldados de Franelas” claimed responsibility on social media without giving evidence. Maduro claimed outgoing Colombian President Santos was responsible; Santos dismissed as “ridiculous”. Security forces 7 Aug arrested opposition MP Juan Requesens, with govt claiming he helped leader of attack under orders from exiled opposition leader Julio Borges; Requesens’ family and colleagues alleged he was drugged to force televised confession. Govt charged Requesens with crimes including attempted assassination and treason, which he denied in court, and 8 Aug issued warrant for arrest of Borges, who denies involvement. Govt 20 Aug implemented delayed currency reform, cutting five zeroes off bolívar to create new “sovereign bolívar”; three days earlier, Maduro announced “magical” economic package, involving pegging new currency to Petro “crypto-currency” backed by oil reserves (representing an effective devaluation of 95%), and 35-fold increase in minimum wage, initially to be partly subsidised by govt; generated widespread concerns that measures will accelerate hyper-inflation crisis and cripple businesses. Several opposition parties 21 Aug held nationwide “general strike”, but response patchy. So-called “Supreme Court in exile” 15 Aug found Maduro guilty of corruption, sentenced him to jail term; National Assembly 21 Aug ratified sentence, calling on security forces to arrest him, in apparent manoeuvre by parts of opposition, principally in exile, to name alternative govt and seek military intervention. Venezuelans continued to flee country causing backlash in neighbouring countries; Peru and Ecuador announced entry restrictions while incident in Brazil 18 Aug saw residents in border town Pacaraima attack Venezuelans, prompting 1,200 to flee back across border. UN 24 Aug warned of exodus from Venezuela heading to “crisis moment” for region.

Govt benefited from splintering of domestic opposition and signs of easing international pressure, however, congress of ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) late July also revealed dissent in govt ranks, including over policy of currency exchange controls. Opposition Democratic Unity (MUD) alliance 5 July suffered major split with departure of one of its biggest members, Acción Democrática (AD); AD leader Henry Ramos Allup blamed MUD’s inability to appoint new leadership or fulfil existing agreements. Former opposition presidential candidates Henrique Capriles, Henri Falcón and Manuel Rosales met with Ramos Allup 19 July to discuss how to reunify opposition, but other opposition leaders rejected idea of “revival of the MUD”. So-called “Supreme Court in exile” (in Panama) 5 July ruled Maduro must be replaced by interim president elected by opposition-led National Assembly. Pro-govt National Constituent Assembly 16 July confirmed plans to hold recall referendums against 30 opposition legislators. Electoral authority 12 July announced delayed local council elections to take place 9 Dec; opposition divided over whether to take part. Switzerland 10 July announced fresh sanctions against eleven officials including VP Rodríguez, and Lima Group 17 July reiterated call for restoration of democracy and expressed “deep concern” over reports govt has moved combat aircraft and other weapons to Colombian border. Colombian President-elect Duque said he would not appoint ambassador to Caracas. New govts of Spain and Mexico signalled softer stances on Maduro govt; Spanish FM Borell 16 July met Venezuelan counterpart and signalled Spain no longer so keen on sanctions; Mexican President-elect López Obrador 5 July said his govt would restore policy of “non-interference” in other countries’ affairs. International Monetary Fund 23 July warned inflation could reach a million % by end 2018; Maduro 25 July postponed introduction of new banknotes for second time to 20 Aug, announced five zeroes (instead of three) would be eliminated; also indicated gasoline rationing could be imminent. Miami newspaper El Nuevo Herald 27 July claimed Maduro under investigation in U.S. over massive money-laundering scheme involving Venezuelan state oil company.

Fallout from 20 May election continued as opposition and foreign govts maintained refusal to recognise President Maduro’s victory. Supreme Court (SC) 13 June refused to admit losing candidate Henri Falcón’s claim that election should be nullified because of multiple irregularities including vote-buying, saying Falcón offered no proof. Organization of American States (OAS) General Assembly 5 June passed resolution stating election failed to comply with international standards and lacked legitimacy; called for negotiations leading to a free and fair election, and for member states to take political, economic and financial measures to assist in restoration of democracy in Venezuela; although supported by nineteen countries, resolution fell short of 24 votes needed to suspend Venezuela’s membership. EU 25 June imposed sanctions on eleven govt officials, including members of electoral authority. UN high commissioner for human rights 22 June accused security forces in Operation for the Liberation of the People, ostensibly a series of crime-reduction operations, of over 500 extrajudicial killings July 2015-March 2017. Govt conditionally released several dozen political prisoners, from various groups, beginning 2 June; however hundreds remained in jail. Dozens are military officers, some convicted of involvement in May 2018 coup plot which, according to a report by Bloomberg, was foiled. President Maduro 14 June announced cabinet changes including replacement of VP El Aissami with Delcy Rodríguez, previously head of controversial pro-Maduro National Constituent Assembly (ANC); Maduro moved El Aissami to head new Ministry of Industries and National Production, Diosdado Cabello was chosen to head ANC. Reshuffle also significantly reduced number of military members of cabinet. Amid ongoing hyperinflation crisis, ANC appointed Calixto Ortega Sánchez as president of Central Bank, despite his lack of prior experience in role. Opposition remained divided; Falcón 30 May announced creation of “new opposition platform” Concertación para el Cambio, based around parties that supported his candidacy.

Presidential elections took place 20 May, despite domestic and international pressure to postpone; electoral authorities declared incumbent President Maduro winner with 67% of vote, on 46% turnout – much higher than most independent estimates. Opposition candidate Henri Falcón of Avanzada Progresista party officially won 21.1%; evangelical Pastor Javier Bertucci 10%. Falcón declared he would not recognise result. Earlier, his campaign manager 16 May filed Supreme Court injunction to stop alleged govt illegal “vote-buying”; during campaign Maduro offered Bs10mn to those who voted; electoral authority subsequently prohibited fulfilment of promise. Ahead of poll, Opposition Democratic Unity (MUD) alliance intensified call for boycotts and campaigned against Falcón standing. Ad hoc Lima Group of govts 14 May met in Mexico City, issuing “final call” to postpone elections. Following announcement of results, Lima Group announced recall of remaining ambassadors from Caracas in protest at results. U.S. 21 May announced new economic sanctions; Caracas 22 May responded by expelling two U.S. diplomats, accusing them of “conspiracy”. U.S. 7 May had already announced sanctions on three individuals and twenty companies with ties to Maduro. Council of the EU 28 May announced fresh sanctions without specifying them. Organization of American States 29 May said it will present evidence to International Criminal Court that Maduro govt has committed crimes against humanity in response to report by panel of independent international experts alleging extrajudicial killings and torture of political prisoners. Prospect of shutdown in oil production loomed after international arbitration court late April awarded ConocoPhillips $2,040mn in long-running legal battle with Venezuela over rescinding of its contracts by President Chávez in 2007, prompting Conoco to seize Venezuelan oil refining and storage assets in Dutch Antilles and state-owned oil company PDVSA to withdraw its tanker fleet to Venezuelan waters.

Govt pressed on with planned presidential election 20 May despite international and internal pressure to postpone and improve conditions for opposition, which remains deeply split. Opposition Democratic Unity (MUD) alliance continued to call for election boycott, refusing to back sole opposition candidate Henri Falcón of Avanzada Progresista party. MUD and radical opposition wing Soy Venezuela 17 April briefly united around vote in opposition-led National Assembly calling for President Maduro to be tried for corruption (as proposed by exiled dissident Supreme Court judges), with 105 out of 167 legislators voting in favour of resolution, only four opposition legislators abstaining; only two legislators of ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) present. Maduro 10 April announced he would not attend Summit of the Americas in Peruvian capital Lima 13 April, calling it a “waste of time”, after previously insisting he would attend despite Peruvian govt rescinding his invitation. U.S. VP Pence, attending summit in place of U.S. President Trump, called Venezuela “failed state”, said U.S. would not stand by while it collapsed. Ad hoc Lima Group of govts issued fresh communiqué reiterating calls for free and fair elections and assistance in tackling humanitarian emergency. U.S. Treasury Sec Steven Mnuchin 19 April hosted meeting of officials from sixteen European and Latin American countries who agreed to strengthen efforts to seize Venezuelan assets acquired corruptly. Govt 5 April suspended Panamanian airline Copa’s flights for three months in response to Panama’s introduction late March of sanctions banning Panamanian firms’ business with 50 Venezuelan officials including Maduro. Measure prompted Panamanian decision to suspend Venezuelan airlines from Caracas-Panama route as well; presidents 26 April agreed to restore normal aviation traffic and set up joint commission under their foreign ministers to review bilateral relations. Maduro 12 April handed Oil Minister Manuel Quevedo powers to reform energy sector, despite reported Russian and Chinese pressure to sack him.

Electoral commission 1 March announced that 22 April election would be postponed to 20 May. Announcement followed negotiations between govt and minor parties that agreed to take part in vote, which resulted in agreement ostensibly to guarantee better conditions, including through presence of international observers, notably from UN; opposition Democratic Unity (MUD) alliance 5 March asked UN to refrain from participating in “fraudulent” elections. Polls indicate Henri Falcón from Avanzada Progresista, who split with MUD to launch candidacy, could beat Maduro if turnout is above 50%; but also suggest most opposition supporters will boycott elections. Govt moved against perceived opponents in armed forces, both active and retired, detaining nineteen including former interior minister Miguel Rodríguez, arrested by intelligence agency 13 March; another two dozen retired officers either stripped of their ranks or expelled from armed forces. Govt’s international isolation continued to deepen. Peru 19 March reiterated its refusal to invite Maduro to mid-April Summit of the Americas in Lima despite Bolivia and Nicaragua’s calls to reconsider. U.S. 19 March extended sanctions program on four additional officials and banned all dealings in Venezuelan govt’s new “petro” cryptocurrency, which is seen as a vehicle for obtaining fresh loans and evading financial sanctions. Ten countries at G20 finance ministers’ meeting 19 March agreed to ask International Monetary Fund for funds to help Venezuelan migrants and looked into possible forms of pressure on Maduro govt. Radical opposition wing Soy Venezuela 12 March called for “humanitarian intervention by democratic countries of the world and international organisations”.

Formal talks between govt and opposition in Dominican Republic broke down 7 Feb, following govt’s unilateral announcement in Jan that it would hold early presidential elections in April, and after Mexico and Chile pulled out of their facilitation roles. Electoral Commission 7 Feb announced election date of 22 April. Opposition remains split over whether to participate. Opposition Democratic Unity (MUD) alliance 21 Feb announced it would not take part and demanded govt postpone elections until second half of 2018, as well as guarantee independent international electoral observers, vote for Venezuelans abroad, equal access to media, and lifting of ban on opposition parties and candidates. However, leader of Avanzada Progresista party Henri Falcon 16 Feb announced intention to stand. Lima Group of fourteen nations formed to press for restoration of democracy in Venezuela expressed “firm rejection” of election plan 13 Feb, saying poll would “lack legitimacy and credibility”. Peru 13 Feb withdrew President Maduro’s invitation to Summit of Americas in Lima 13-14 April; govt said Maduro will attend summit regardless. During regional tour, U.S. Secretary State Rex Tillerson 4 Feb proposed oil embargo against Venezuela, however most regional govts have reservations. Tillerson also said U.S. and Canada working on ways of providing alternative energy sources to the Caribbean to reduce dependence on Venezuela. Colombia and Brazil 8 Feb both announced fresh measures to cope with mass influx of Venezuelans into their countries.

Govt 23 Jan announced elections “before 30 April”, causing crisis in talks with opposition in Dominican Republic. Mexico immediately withdrew from mediation of talks, saying govt move demonstrated lack of seriousness. Govt said it was response to EU’s 22 Jan announcement of new sanctions on seven govt officials, including travel ban and asset freeze. Opposition split over whether to take part in elections and whether to resume talks, as proposed by govt. Supreme Court 26 Jan instructed electoral authority to cancel registration of opposition Democratic Unity (MUD) alliance, preventing it from standing in elections. Two other major parties required to gather signatures to re-register. Voluntad Popular party of Leopoldo López refused and is no longer registered. Govt-opposition talks resumed 29 Jan, without Voluntad Popular’s participation. Protests over food and looting continued, particularly in Calabozo, Guárico state (north), where military helicopters deployed after National Guard failed to contain looting 13 Jan; around 250 arrested. Govt 6 Jan ordered supermarkets to bring prices down to Nov level; lower prices led to panic-buying and empty shelves as shops refused to restock. Rash of hijacking of food trucks caused further disruption to food and other supplies, including in parts of north and north west. National Guard and armed civilians 15 Jan killed rebel police helicopter pilot Oscar Pérez and six others in El Junquito, near Caracas; Pérez, wanted since June, most recently led raid against National Guard installation 19 Dec stealing dozens of firearms.

Govt won 308 of 335 mayoral posts at stake in municipal elections 10 Dec; most main parties boycotted vote. Electoral authority (CNE) claimed 47% turnout, opposition and many independent analysts said it was much lower. Non-accredited election observers reported widespread evidence of coercion, vote-buying, violation of voting secrecy and electoral propaganda in vicinity of polling stations. Govt used so-called carnet de la patria (homeland identity card), which links access to state benefits with loyalty to ruling party, to reward voters who presented their cards to party representatives after voting. Talks held between govt and opposition representatives in Dominican Republic 1-2 Dec and 15 Dec, in presence of foreign guarantor countries; the two sides agreed to meet again 12 Jan. 44 political prisoners released 23-24 Dec, reportedly as result of agreement reached at talks, although officially 80 were to be released. Part of opposition continues to demand dissolution of unconstitutional National Constituent Assembly before talks are held. Dozens of managers of Citgo, U.S. refining arm of state oil corporation PDVSA, and of PDVSA itself, arrested starting late Nov in what govt described as anti-corruption drive; prominent detainees include former Energy Minister Eulogio del Pino and former PDVSA chairman Nelson Martínez. Ambassador to UN Rafael Ramírez, formerly leading regime figure who was oil minister and PDVSA chair under late President Chávez, forced to resign as UN ambassador 4 Dec but escorted into exile, from where he denied charges and issued series of statements blaming Maduro for crisis. Many independent observers regard purge as bid by President Maduro to eliminate potential rival in Ramírez.

With economic collapse looming, President Maduro 2 Nov announced plan to restructure and refinance foreign debt, and created special commission to negotiate with bondholders; commission headed by VP Tareck el Aissami, who is on U.S. sanctions list due to alleged involvement in drug trafficking. Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s 13 Nov said govt was in “selective default” after it failed to issue $200mn in repayments for global bonds due Oct; govt same day met with bondholders, insisted it will continue to repay debt and negotiate for bond restructuring. Russia 15 Nov rescheduled over $3bn in bilateral debt. On political front, opposition Democratic Unity alliance (MUD) 31 Oct announced it would refuse to take part in long-delayed 10 Dec municipal elections. MUD 9 Nov announced new round of talks with govt scheduled 1-2 Dec 2018 in Dominican Republic to obtain guarantees for 2018 presidential election, prompting formal split of opposition camp into pro-dialogue MUD, largest group in parliament, and anti-dialogue Soy Venezuela group. Foreign ministers of all guarantor countries apart from Paraguay (Chile, Mexico, Nicaragua, Bolivia, and St. Vincent) expected to attend. Former Caracas Mayor Antonio Ledezma, leading member of anti-dialogue Soy Venezuela faction, 17 Nov escaped house arrest, travelled to Spain and met with Spanish PM Rajoy; 23 Nov announced global campaign for Venezuelan democracy.