CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Following 3 Jan confirmation of Jovenel Moïse as victor of 20 Nov presidential election, international community and “Core Group” welcomed Moïse’s election, stated willingness to work with new govt; called on all political forces to accept results on basis of monitoring and verification carried out by Provisional Electoral Council. Moïse questioned by judge 26 Jan as part of judicial investigation (launched in 2013) into reports from Central Unit of Financial Information that he misused funds and laundered money. Results of legislative elections confirmed 3 Jan. Moïse’s PHTK party (Parti Haïtien Tèt Kale) gained most votes, won 64 out of 99 seats in parliament. Demonstrations broke out following publication of results, especially in SE. Run-off poll held 29 Jan for eight senators. Newly elected senator of Department of Grand’ Anse Guy Philippe, wanted in U.S. for a decade on charges of drug trafficking, arrested 5 Jan by Haitian counter-narcotic police and extradited to U.S. Supporters of Philippe and PHTK demonstrated to demand his return, especially in Grand’Anse, where insecurity and violence forced schools to close since 9 Jan.
Jovenel Moïse, 48-year old banana farmer appointed by former President Martelly as candidate despite having no prior political experience, expected to be confirmed winner of 20 Nov presidential election 3 Jan. Backed by business community, especially agriculture, Moïse has emphasised need for economic revival of countryside and rural development. Three of nine Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) members 28 Nov refused to validate results, mainly due to irregularities and lack of transparency during vote count. Members of Core Group, most importantly U.S. and Organization of American States (OAS), recognised results, however political opposition refused to do so and started legal proceedings to challenge them. CEP 5 Dec published preliminary results of 20 Nov legislative elections: no political party won majority of votes, however Moïse’s Tèt Kale party gained most ground winning seats for three senators and four deputies. Former rebel leader Guy Philippe, wanted by U.S. and Haitian authorities for drug charges, money laundering and armed attack on police station, won senate seat for Grand’Anse region. UN 1 Dec officially assumed responsibility for 2010 cholera outbreak.
Delayed first round of repeat presidential and parliamentarian elections held 20 Nov, despite doubts over conditions for free and fair elections due to hurricane-related damage to polling stations and public infrastructure, and many still lacking identification documents. Campaign characterised by exploitation by candidates and political parties of politicised aid deliveries. Provisional Electoral Council criticised former President Aristide after he called on supporters to resort to “shock treatment” if elections further delayed. Tensions and clashes continued in week following vote as results were counted, including shots fired outside presidential palace 21 Nov as some candidates claimed victory, and clashes between protesters and police. Violent protests erupted 29 Nov after preliminary results indicated Jovenel Moïse victor with 55.67 %: losing candidates rejected results, which Aristide’s Fanmi Lavalas party called “electoral coup”. Voter turnout reportedly 21%. Late Oct breakout of 172 inmates from jail north of capital Port-au-Prince further complicated security conditions. Authorities 8 Nov discovered shipment loaded with weapons and ammunition 20 km north of capital. UN reported 1.4 million people still in need of humanitarian assistance, 806,000 in state of urgent food insecurity. Of $139mn aid requested by UN, only 46% pledged by end Nov. Several deaths reported as security forces responded to looting of aid transports, attacks on businesses and warehouses; some aid deliveries not made due to fears of looting. Heavy rain early Nov led to renewed flooding and landslides in 15 municipalities, killing at least ten and hindering aid delivery.
Hurricane Matthew struck Haiti 4 Oct killing killing 546 people according to official reports, creating worst humanitarian crisis since 2010 earthquake and prompting cancellation of 9 Oct elections. UN reported 1.4 million people in need of humanitarian aid, 800,000 requiring urgent help, 150,000 displaced; South and Grand’Anse departments worst affected. Communication networks and public infrastructure out of service, reports of attacks and looting of aid convoys; spread of cholera intensified. Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) re-scheduled first round of repeat presidential and parliamentary elections for 20 Nov, second round for 29 Jan 2017. However many voting centres damaged, destroyed or inaccessible, many Haitians lost ID documents. UNSC renewed mandate of MINUSTAH for six months until 15 April 2017.
Ahead of first round of repeat presidential and legislative elections 9 Oct, Electoral Observation Mission composed of officials from Organization of American States (OAS) and other international observers underwent training by Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) in Haiti in effort to prevent repeat of 2015 electoral fraud. UNSC’s 31 Aug report on MINUSTAH mission denounced weak operational and institutional capacity of national police force and its absence in rural areas; described security in Haiti as “calm but fragile”, noted increase in public demonstrations, third of which marked by violence; reported some 33% of protests politically motivated or election-related. Report recommended extending MINUSTAH mandate, set to end 15 Oct, for six months, and deploying strategic assessment mission after 7 Feb 2017 (date for swearing in of new president). Fears of greater insecurity intensified after truck loaded with weapons, ammunition, and diverse military equipment, originating from Miami, was seized by Haitian authorities 8 Sept. Various physical assaults on candidates during campaign events reported late Sept, leading President Privert to declare “zero tolerance” toward electoral violence. Amid concern over ongoing spread of cholera and zika virus and lack of funding to address causes, five-month strike from doctors and medical personnel ended 1 Sept.
Ahead of first round of repeat presidential elections set for 9 Oct, Organization of American States (OAS) 2 Aug stated it will again serve as electoral observer, but issued list of recommendations to reform election process ahead of polls including more training for poll workers to identify irregularities, changing indelible ink used to identify who has voted. 9 Oct ballot to feature 27 candidates for president plus candidates for legislative seats; campaigning opened 23 Aug. Election funding remained uncertain, with President Privert reportedly reaching out to private sector to raise $55m budget announced 17 Aug. Leaked UN report appeared to confirm organisation’s responsibility for 2010 cholera outbreak which killed over 10,000 people, believed to have originated with contingent of peacekeepers from Nepal.
Attempt to hold National Assembly session 14 July on transitional governance and election timetable failed for fourth time, with political parties again unable to debate disputed provisional governance arrangements due to lack of quorum. Organization of American States (OAS) Sec Gen Luis Almagro 15 July expressed concern over inability to convene session needed to achieve institutional stability and push ahead with electoral process. U.S. early July announced it will not finance Haiti’s 9 Oct rerun presidential elections; UN peacekeeping chief Hervé Ladsous warned international community was losing patience with stalled govt. U.S. Special Envoy Kenneth Merten 21 July returned to Haiti to try and secure agreements for new transitional govt and political consensus on elections. Estimated 130,000 Haitian nationals who received Dominican Republic residence permit for one year under National Regularization of Foreigners Plan (PNRE) saw documents expire 18 July; human rights organisations warned of increased risks of new wave of deportations, expulsions or spontaneous returns to Haiti.
Political crisis continued largely unchanged as parliament 28 June again failed to vote on whether to extend interim President Privert’s term, which was to end 14 June according to 5 Feb political accord for transitional govt; opposition previous day called to replace him with Court of Cassation judge or PM Enex Jean-Charles. Privert 15 June said he would stay in office until parliamentary vote on issue. Following 30 May recommendation by Special Verification Commission (CIEVE) to cancel Oct 2015 first round of presidential election due to fraud and irregularities, Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) 6 June announced new electoral timetable: first and second rounds of presidential elections scheduled for 9 Oct 2016 and 8 Jan 2017. Timetable prompted violent protests by supporters of Tèt Kale, party of former President Martelly that won most votes in annulled Oct 2015 first round vote. However, Martelly’s presidential candidate, Jovenel Moïse, along with runner-up Jude Célestin and 24 other presidential candidates, 22 June signed up for the new polls. Disputed elections for 39 parliamentary seats also remain unresolved. Politically motivated violence increased, including 30 May killing of Tèt Kale militant; bullets fired 27 June at presidential candidate’s car, no injuries reported; and guns drawn 22 June inside National Assembly.
Long-delayed presidential elections thrown into further uncertainty with commission report saying flawed Oct 2015 elections must be entirely re-held, prompted fears of further civil unrest. Following postponement of 24 April presidential and legislative run-off elections and subsequent mass protests, MP Gary Bodeau 4 May announced National Assembly will convene 13 June, for beginning of second parliamentary session and one day before end of interim President Privert’s current 120-day term, to ensure institutional continuity (under Feb political agreement, Privert would hand over power to newly-elected president by 14 May). UNSC 13 May expressed “deep disappointment” over authorities’ failure to meet agreed election and inauguration deadlines, though welcomed late-March reconstitution of Provisional Electoral Council (CEP). Presidential run-off election timetable upended as evaluation and verification commission which began 28 April published its report 30 May finding massive irregularities in Oct 2015 presidential elections and recommending to CEP, and ultimately parliament, that poll be entirely re-run. CEP chief Leopold Berlanger said body would announce decision 6 June. Six Haitian police in Les Cayes killed 16 May by army-fatigue wearing gang, some of whom later died when their getaway car crashed; one captured shooter alleged Senatorial candidate Guy Philippe organised attack; Philippe denied involvement.
Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) President Léopold Berlanger 5 April announced postponement of planned 24 April presidential run-off elections, 19 April said they would be ready by end-May, although subsequent statements by Interim President Privert put that date in doubt; announcements followed 30 March swearing in of new CEP. Privert 5 April called for national dialogue on establishment of verification commission for controversial and incomplete 2015 elections; members of opposition parties refused to participate in discussions. CEP 11 April released final results of 2015 municipal elections for 69 communes, with some 76 others still pending resolution of 93 complaints. Privert 14 April approved terms of reference of Independent Commission for Electoral Evaluation and Verification; five-member commission granted 30 day mandate from 25 April. Berlanger 23 April said CEP would not automatically accept commission recommendations. Senate VP Ronald Larèche said World Bank does not intend to finance provisional govt before outcome of electoral process; U.S. Ambassador Peter F. Mulrean 6 April stressed cost of election delays but reaffirmed U.S. willingness to provide financial support, 20 April warned that the commission could be used for partisan purposes. Organization of American States (OAS) Sec Gen Luis Almagro 10 April cautioned Haiti against holding rushed elections, try to avoid past mistakes. UNSG Ban 25 April voiced deep concern regarding electoral process. Privert 24 April announced that elections could be held last Sunday of Oct, now seeking political support to extend his mandate, due to end 14 May.
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