CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries took several measures against Lebanon and Hizbollah following Saudi Arabia’s Feb suspension of $3bn in military aid, reportedly due to Lebanon’s failure to condemn Jan attack on Saudi embassy in Iran and “hostile Lebanese positions resulting from the stranglehold of Hizbollah on the State”. GCC 2 March designated Hizbollah a terrorist organisation; Saudi interior ministry 13 March warned of “severe penalties” for anyone linked to Hizbollah; throughout month GCC countries expelled dozens of Lebanese citizens over alleged Hizbollah ties. Hizbollah 3 March condemned GCC’s terrorist label, blamed Saudi Arabia. Arab League 11 March declared Hizbollah a terrorist group. U.S. officials 8 March warned Saudi Arabia against further economic measures against Lebanon. Parliament failed again to elect new president 2 and 23 March due to lack of quorum; UNSC 17 March urged parties to put country’s stability and national interests before partisan politics. Army clashed with suspected militants 10 March near Syrian border, one soldier and eight gunmen killed. Removal of garbage from Beirut suburbs began 19 March, after govt 12 March approved emergency plan to temporarily reopen Naameh landfill. Minister of Justice Ashraf Rifi resigned 21 Feb, accusing Hizbollah of obstructing cabinet’s functioning, offending Saudi Arabia and intervening for release of former minister Michel Samaha, who was released on bail in Jan after being convicted on terror charges.
During raid in Arsal near Syrian border, army 3 Feb killed six gunmen and arrested sixteen suspected militants including Islamic State (IS) commander. Hizbollah 2 Feb reportedly killed at least four al-Qaeda-linked Jabhat al-Nusra (JN) members in rocket attack outside Arsal. Hizbollah-affiliated media 8 Feb said IS and JN militants clashed on NE border with Syria. Parliament again failed to elect new president 8 Feb due to lack of quorum, despite Jan breakthrough in presidential race with Christian Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea’s withdrawal of candidacy and endorsement of Free Patriotic Movement’s Michel Aoun. Former PM and Future Current movement leader Saad Hariri 15 Feb said he remained committed to backing Marada Movement leader Suleiman Frangieh. Saudi Arabia 19 Feb suspended $3bn in military aid (granted in 2013), reportedly over Lebanon’s failure to condemn Jan attack on Saudi embassy in Iran; 23 Feb urged citizens to leave Lebanon. Interior Minister Nohad Machnouk 25 Feb said regular Future-Hezbollah meetings should be suspended. Court 18 Feb indicted fourteen on terrorism charges, including JN commander. Garbage crisis, which began July 2015, continues.
Leader Lebanese Forces party Samir Geagea 18 Jan backed rival General Michel Aoun, leader of Christian Free Patriotic Movement, for presidency, now vacant for over twenty months, in move to resolve political crisis. Parliament failed to elect new president again 7 Jan due to lack of quorum. Hizbollah 4 Jan detonated explosive device targeting Israeli army patrol in disputed Shebaa Farms area following alleged Israeli assassination of prominent militant Samir Kuntar late Dec; Israel retaliated with shelling. Authorities 14 Jan released on bail former Information Minister Michel Samaha, arrested Aug 2012 on terrorism charges. Former PM and Future Current leader Saad Hariri criticised release; protesters blocked roads in Beirut. Security forces 14 Jan reportedly arrested senior member of al-Qaeda-linked Abdullah Azzam Brigade in anti-terrorist operation in Beirut. Islamic State and al-Qaeda-linked Jabhat al-Nusra clashed in Arsal late Jan.
Amid ongoing political stalemate, former PM and Future Current (FC) leader Saad Hariri 3 Dec backed initiative supporting contested candidacy of Marada Movement leader Suleiman Frangieh, friend of Syrian President Assad and member of rival March 8 coalition, in move straining FC’s ties with Christian allies and with Lebanese Forces. Parliament failed to elect new president again 3 Dec and 16 Dec due to lack of quorum. Govt 21 Dec agreed to export country’s waste in move that could end garbage crisis, which began mid-July. Army and Hizbollah continued offensive against militants along NE border with Syria: Hizbollah 9 Dec reportedly killed al-Qaeda-linked Jabhat al-Nusra (JN) commander and eight fighters following attack on convoy; army and Hizbollah 15 Dec reportedly killed five Islamic State (IS) fighters; army 17 Dec reportedly killed three militants. JN 1 Dec released sixteen soldiers and police, held since Aug 2014, under Qatari-mediated deal, in exchange for release of thirteen Islamist-leaning prisoners in Lebanon and Syria; IS continued to hold nine hostages. Suicide blast 5 Dec reportedly killed three, wounded several soldiers during army raid in northern city Tripoli. U.S. 11 Dec urged citizens to avoid travel to Lebanon due to security concerns. Hizbollah 21 Dec vowed to retaliate for killing of prominent militant Samir Kuntar in alleged Israeli airstrike inside Syria 19 Dec (see Israel).
At least 40 people killed, over 200 injured in double suicide bomb attack 12 Nov in predominantly Shiite neighbourhood of Bourj al-Barajneh in Beirut’s southern suburb; Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility, triggering renewed fears about ability and intent of jihadi groups to expand operations in Lebanon, and for many observers highlighting limitations of govt’s “security plan”; security forces arrested at least sixteen suspects. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri 11 Nov again postponed election of president due to lack of quorum. Anti-govt protests in Beirut over ongoing trash collection crisis continued. Parliament approved a number of draft laws during rare session 12-13 Nov following informal agreements among main political parties on mainly financial issues. Two soldiers and six alleged fugitives killed during anti-drug raid in Jounieh 2 Nov. Suicide bomber 5 Nov killed at least six Syrian clerics in NE town Arsal.
Anti-govt protests in Beirut over ongoing trash collection crisis continued; dozens injured as security forces fired tear gas and water cannons during protests in Beirut 8 Oct; at least 50 protestors detained for vandalism and assaulting policemen, several appeared before military court. Govt plan to address worsening waste crisis facing ongoing obstacles including objections of residents living close to proposed landfill sites. Further “National Dialogue” session aimed at finding solutions to political stalemate began 6 Oct. Thousands of supporters of General Michel Aoun, leader of Christian Free Patriotic Movement and candidate for presidency, rallied outside presidential palace 11 Oct. Parliament 21 Oct again failed to elect new president due to lack of quorum. As spillover from Syria conflict continued, five soldiers reportedly wounded in militant strike in eastern border village Ras Baalbek 7 Oct; several militants reportedly killed, many wounded in military strike in NE town Arsal 11 Oct. Security forces 12 Oct reportedly arrested senior al-Qaeda-linked Jabhat al-Nusra (JN) militant in Arsal; 22 Oct announced arrest of top IS leader and several suspected militants in Ain al-Hilweh, Lebanon’s largest Palestinian refugee camp.
Protests in Beirut over garbage crisis, which began mid-July, continued throughout month: 1 Sept sit-in in environment minister’s office demanding his resignation violently dispersed by police; at least 30 detained and several injured as police clashed with protesters 16 Sept; thousands rallied 20 Sept. At emergency meeting 9 Sept govt decided to give local municipalities authority to treat waste. MPs and ministers met for “National Dialogue” same day to discuss ongoing political crisis and deadlock over presidency; no agreement reached at this or subsequent sessions. Parliament 2 Sept again failed to elect new president, and again 30 Sept due to lack of quorum; vote postponed to 21 Oct. Security forces 22 Sept reported arrest of Syrian citizen suspected of involvement in Nov 2013 bombing of Iranian embassy in Beirut.
Amid growing discontent over political paralysis and Beirut garbage crisis which began mid-July, peaceful protests began early Aug, turning violent by late month. Responding to mass demonstrations that erupted in Beirut 22 Aug, riot police fired tear gas, rubber bullets and water cannons on demonstrators; dozens of protestors and police wounded. Some demonstrators called for resignation of environment and interior ministers, others for government and parliament to resign. PM Salam 23 Aug announced security forces would be held accountable for violence against protestors, called emergency govt session 27 Aug over ongoing political stalemate; cabinet selected winning bidders for new waste collection contracts but cancelled them next day, invoking excessively high rates. Renewed demonstrations against corruption and political dysfunction 29 Aug rallied more than 10,000 protestors. Violent clashes erupted 24 Aug between Fatah and Jund al-Sham in Ain al-Hilweh refugee camp amid escalating rivalries between groups; three reported killed, several wounded. Supporters of Free Patriotic Movement 12 Aug rallied against perceived marginalisation of Christian rights and extension of terms of top army commanders.
Internal political stalemate endures amid rising tensions between March 8 coalition and March 14 coalition. 9 July cabinet session witnessed heated argument between PM Salam and Aounist FM Gebran Bassil, latter accusing PM of violating constitution, encroaching on prerogatives of president. General Michel Aoun, leader of Christian Free Patriotic Movement, called rally 9 July in attempt to press for his election to presidency and appointment of his son-in-law as head of army, but turnout low. Several wounded in clashes between supporters of Sunni Future Movement and Hizbollah-linked Resistance Brigades south of Beirut 1 July. Videos leaked from Roumieh prison showed security officers beating and humiliating Sunni Islamist inmates, feeding into growing sense of persecution among families and sympathisers, and raising concerns about effectiveness of govt’s policy toward extremism. Hizbollah and Syrian army continued offensives against Syrian militants in Zabadani, key militant stronghold along Lebanon’s eastern border with Syria, part of wider operation seeking to wrest control of Qalamoun region from Syrian militants (see Syria).
Hizbollah and Syrian army continued offensive against rebels along Lebanon’s NE border with Syria, with some success despite growing casualties. Hizbollah 8 June seized several strategic border crossings linking Lebanese town Arsal to Syrian village Flita; 9 June repelled pre-emptive Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIL) attack near Ras Baalbek, in clash which saw eight Hizbollah fighters and fourteen IS militants killed; 12 June captured Qirnet Shaab al-Nasoub, Qirnet Abu Harb and Qirnet Semaan, near Jarajeer, held by Assad regime. Free Patriotic Movement leader Michael Aoun and Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea signed “declaration of intent” on filling position of president, now vacant for over a year, but rare meeting 2 June did not yield significant breakthrough. Hizbollah 8 June stated March 14 coalition must elect Aoun as president or face “indefinite” presidential vacuum.
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