CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Army and police deployed in Hizbollah-controlled southern suburb of Beirut 23 Sept to take over security from Hizbollah militants at checkpoints. Clashes in Tripoli mid-month injured 7, killed 1 amid continued tensions between Alawite and Sunni residents. 5 people killed in clash in Hizbollah stronghold Baalbek in East 28 Sept, security forces deployed to restore calm; followed clash 25 Sept in which several wounded. Several rockets from Syria fell in East mid-Sept wounding 2. European Commission 12 Sept pledged further $77mn to Lebanon to help cope with Syrian refugee influx, now reported to number 759,932 in Lebanon alone. Political deadlock still unresolved: caretaker PM Najib Mikati, MPs from Future Movement and its March 14 allies, and Free Patriotic Movement 23 Sept boycotted parliament session for 5th time, prompting Parliament speaker Berri to postpone it once again.
Sectarian clashes reignited in Tripoli where gunmen 22 Aug killed 3 including Hizbollah supporter; at least 42 people killed, hundreds wounded 23 Aug in 2 explosions in Tripoli; no claim of responsibility; 5 suspects, including 3 members of pro-Syrian regime party, arrested. Explosion in Hizbollah-controlled southern suburb of Beirut 15 Aug killed at least 27, biggest bomb since 2005 killing of PM Hariri; small Syrian rebel group claimed responsibility. March 14 coalition blamed Hizbollah’s intervention in Syria for provoking retaliation; Hizbollah leader Nasrallah promised his organisation would double its fighters in Syria with each such attack. Security agencies reportedly uncovered further bombing cells, while Hizbollah set up checkpoints to protect Shia-majority neighbourhoods under its control. Airstrikes from Syria continued; 9 killed, 9 injured in 3 Aug airstrike on Arsal. 4 Israeli soldiers who had crossed border into Lebanon wounded in 7 Aug attack; Hizbollah claimed responsibility. 4 rockets fired from Lebanon into northern Israel 22 Aug causing damage but no casualties; Israel 23 Aug retaliated bombing “terror site” near Na’ameh (see Israel-Palestine). Political deadlock continued as Future Movement continues to insist on “neutral” cabinet while Hizbollah demands “national unity” govt composed of representatives from all sides.
Continued spillover from Syrian conflict with attacks on Hizbollah assets and allies. Dozens injured in car bomb targeting Hizbollah-controlled southern Beirut suburb Beir el-Abed 9 July; Syrian “Special Forces 313 Brigade” rebels claimed responsibility, also claimed 28 June attack on Hizbollah convoy. Roadside bomb 16 July struck Hizbollah convoy in Bekaa valley near Syrian border, killed 1. Gunmen 17 July killed pro-Assad Syrian media commentator Mohammad Darra Jamo in Sarafand; security services issued arrest warrants for Jamo’s family members, claiming no clear political motive behind his killing. Authorities 4 July charged Salafi Sheikh Assir and 36 supporters over June clashes in Abra. EU FMs 22 July agreed to blacklist Hizbollah’s military wing as terrorist organisation. Political deadlock continued as Parliament unable to convene due to boycott by some MPs, interim PM Salam still attempting to form cabinet.
As country increasingly drawn into Syrian conflict, sectarian clashes increasing. Shelling across border from Syria continued including at least 12 rockets fired on eastern city Baalbek, shelling of Bekaa valley,Hermel and Arsal border towns. Demonstrators protesting shelling blocked roads in Bekaa, Beirut, al-Abboudiyeh, al-Bireh and clashed with army, leaving 1 dead. Clashes between Sheikh Assir supporters and pro-Hizbollah group in Sidon prompted army deployment 18 June, 2 killed. First-ever clash between army and armed Sheikh Assir supporters in Abra near Sidon 23-24 June; dozens killed, over 100 arrested after army 24 June stormed Assir HQ. Violence in Tripoli between Alawite and Sunni residents early month left at least 6 dead. Anti-Hizbollah protest outside Iranian embassy in Beirut 9 June turned violent, 1 killed. March 14 political coalition and foreign countries supporting Syrian opposition condemned Hizbollah’s involvement in Syria conflict during month. EU 19 June failed to reach consensus on blacklisting Hizbollah military wing as terrorist group. President Suleiman lodged official complaints with UN and Arab League condemning Syrian violations of Lebanon’s sovereignty.
Hizbollah increased support for Syrian troops fighting rebels in Syrian city al-Qusayr near border with Lebanon: Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah 25 May officially committed to fight against Syrian rebellion. At least 79 Hizbollah fighters killed in clashes with Syrian rebels 19-26 May. Germany 24 May backed UK efforts to add Hizbollah’s military wing to EU terrorist list. Syrian rebels mid-May fired more rockets into Hermel region and al-Qaa, no casualties reported. 30 killed and 200 wounded when renewed violence erupted between Sunni and Alawite residents in Tripoli 19 May. PM Tammam Salam continued consultations with political leaders to form cabinet and to agree on electoral law; MPs 31 May extended parliament’s mandate to Nov 2014, delaying parliamentary elections. UNIFIL, Lebanese and Israeli military reps met 8 May to discuss Lebanese complaint regarding Israel’s withdrawal from northern village Ghaggar and allegation of Israeli violations along Blue line, 9 May vowed to maintain calm along border.
Lebanon further drawn into Syria conflict as Hizbollah fighters reportedly leading operation against Syrian rebel forces in western city Al-Qusayr near border with Lebanon; Syrian rebels fired rockets into border villages during month, killing 2. March 14 coalition and Progressive Socialist Party Druze leader Walid Jumblatt denounced Hizbollah’s involvement in Syria conflict; Hizbollah denies its members are fighting, claims they are protecting Lebanese against Syrian rebel attacks, 30 April said Syria’s “real friends” in region will not let it fall. Syrian jihadi group Jabhat al-Nusra 24 April threatened to attack Beirut if President Suleiman does not stop Hizbollah involvement. Suleiman condemned Salafist Sheikhs Assir and al-Rafehi’s calls to send jihad fighters to help Syrian opposition; Free Syrian Army also rejected clerics’ call. EU 23 April agreed to provide $38.9m to help almost 450,000 Syrian refugees in Lebanon. Parliament 6 April designated moderate March 14 figure Tammam Salam new PM; Salam holding consultations over distribution of ministerial portfolios. Parliamentary subcommittee discussing new electoral law suspended 24 April amid deadlock.
Month saw further deterioration, with tensions escalating on several fronts and political uncertainty as govt collapsed 22 March after PM Mikati resigned following standoff with Hizbollah over extending Security Forces chief Ashraf Rifi’s mandate. Mikati’s resignation sparked further clashes between Sunni and Alawite militants in northern town Tripoli, killing 12 people 22-24 March. Ongoing tensions in southern town Saida between Salafist Sheikh Ahmad al-Assir and Shiite Hizbollah supporters. Regular cross-border shelling by Syria continued: Syrian Foreign Ministry mid-month threatened to strike rebels sheltering in Lebanon; several northern Lebanese border villages fired on by Syria 15, 31 March; Syrian regime for first time launched airstrikes 18 March targeting Arsal, eastern Lebanon. U.S. described strikes as “significant escalation in the violations of Lebanese sovereignty” by Damascus. March 14 coalition mid-month called for deployment of army and UN troops along border. UNSC 14 March issued statement of concern over repeated incidents of Lebanese-Syrian cross-border fire, incursions, abductions, arms trafficking. 3 Sunni clerics attacked 17 March in 2 incidents in predominantly Shiite Beirut neighbourhood sparking demonstrations.
Month saw heightened political tensions as well as increased spillover from Syrian conflict. Joint parliamentary committees 19 Feb endorsed controversial “Orthodox Gathering” electoral law proposal requiring each sect to elect own representatives through proportional representation, following walk-out by opposing parties, however Interior Minister Marwan Charbel same day ruled out holding June parliamentary elections without consensus on new electoral law. Debate continued over other proposals; number of accusations of parties intending to delay elections. Official 17 Feb reported 3 Hizbollah fighters killed in clashes with Syrian rebels in al-Qusayr, Syria, near border; FSA 19 Feb threatened retaliation against Hizbollah. Heavy shelling, gunfire over border from Syria 23-24 Feb killed 4 in north of Lebanon; refugee influx from Syria continued to increase; UN expressed renewed concern that Lebanon could be drawn into Syria’s civil war. 2 soldiers and detained local fugitive killed 1 Feb in Arsal in disputed incident sparking officials’ commendation and number of pro- and anti-army protests; military prosecutor 11 Feb charged 34 locals in connection with incident. 3 soldiers injured 15 Feb in protests against subsequent heightened security measures in Arsal and arrest of 11 local men. Bulgaria 5 Feb implicated Hizbollah in July 2012 bombing of tourist bus in Burgas that killed 5 Israelis, 1 Bulgarian; led to renewed calls for EU to blacklist group.
Parliamentary subcommittee 8 Jan resumed talks over new electoral law for June parliamentary polls; 30 Jan deadline extended 15 days to discuss hybrid proposal combining proportional and majority systems. Rival Christian parties 13 Jan proposed joint “Orthodox Gathering” draft electoral law. Sunni-dominated Future Current leader Saad Hariri 31 Jan proposed “small district” law and creation of a Senate. Armed protestors in Tripoli 18 Jan assaulted March 8 coalition minister Faisal Karami’s convoy, 11 injured. Palestinian refugees displaced from Syria held sit-ins at Beddawi refugee camp protesting shortages in assistance: PM Mikati 26 Jan said situation had “reached dangerous levels”. 1 killed 3 Jan in armed clash in Sidon between Hizbollah-affiliated Resistance Companies and Popular Nasserite Organisation. Car bomb 29 Jan injured 2 in Beirut. Supporters of Salafi Sheik Ahmed Assir 13 Jan protested in Sidon against Hizbollah weapons, alliance with Iran. Lebanon accused Israel of violating its airspace several times during month, including with 12 warplanes 22-23 Jan.
Boycott of govt by March 14 alliance, triggered by Oct assassination of Wissam Hassan, continued; dispute increasingly involving issue of new electoral legislation for 2013 parliamentary polls. March 14 alliance 28 Dec set incorporation of Hizbollah’s arms into state as another pre-condition for attendance at scheduled 6 Jan National Dialogue. Syria 11 Dec issued arrest warrants for former Lebanon PM Saad Hariri and MP Oqab Saqr, accused of arming and funding Syrian opposition fighters; PM Mikati 15 Dec called warrants political and “legally void”. New clashes between supporters of Syrian uprising in Bab al-Tabbaneh and supporters of Syrian president Assad in Jabal Mohsen neighbourhoods of Tripoli early Dec, 17 killed and over 70 injured; army deployed to restore security.
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