CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Early month 4 members of caretaker cabinet refused requests by Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) prosecutor general to provide information and documents, breaching cooperation protocol signed with UN. Thousands protested 6 March in Beirut for end to sectarian political system. Tens of thousands of March 14 supporters demonstrated in Beirut 13 March demanding Hizbollah surrender its weapons. Tens of thousands 18 March attended rally organised by caretaker PM Saad Hariri’s Future Current in Tripoli; Hariri warned Hizbollah’s arms would lead to sectarian strife. 7 Estonian tourists kidnapped 23 March by masked gunmen in Bekaa Valley. Lebanon, backed by UK, France, 15 March tabled UNSC resolution to impose no-fly zone over Libya; resolution endorsed 17 March by UNSC (see Libya).
Caretaker PM Saad Hariri 27 Feb announced March 14 coalition will boycott PM-designate Mikati’s govt, accused Hizbollah of staging “coup”. Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) judges 16 Feb ruled court would use Lebanon’s definition of terrorism as act “intended to spread terror” but also apply broader international interpretation of the “means” of attack. Mikati 16 Feb assured EU foreign policy chief Ashton new govt will respect international resolutions including UNSC Resolution 1701 that ended 2006 war with Israel. Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah 16 Feb warned forces will invade Israel’s northern Galilee region if conflict resumes; day earlier Israeli Defence Minister Barak told soldiers they may have to invade Lebanon again.
Unity govt collapsed 12 Jan when 11 opposition ministers allied to Hizbollah resigned in dispute over UN Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL); resignations came 1 day after failure of Saudi-Syrian mediation talks. U.S. Sec State Clinton condemned Hizbollah’s withdrawal as “transparent effort…to subvert justice”. STL 17 Jan filed first indictment in assassination of former PM Rafiq Hariri; dossier will be with pre-trial judge for 6-10 weeks. Former PM Hariri 24 Jan said he and his Future Current Movement would not take part in govt headed by March 8 candidate. Hizbollah-backed billionaire businessman Najib Mikati 25 Jan won parliamentary majority; President Suleiman appointed him PM-designate, began formation of new govt. Sunni supporters of defeated candidate Saad Hariri 24-25 Jan held protests across country. UNSG Ban 26 Jan said new govt must honour commitments to STL.
Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) registrar Herman von Hebel 9 Dec said prosecutor will issue first indictment very soon, stressed court will indict individuals not organisations. Public figures continue to voice opposition to tribunal. Democratic Party leader Talal Arslan 19 Dec denounced STL as U.S.-Israeli plot; Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei 20 Dec dismissed any verdict as “null and void”. Army 15 Dec said it discovered 2 Israeli surveillance devices in mountains above Beirut, 18 Dec submitted official complaint to UNSC for breaking Resolution 1701. UNIFIL investigated 3 Dec blast reportedly caused by remote detonation of Israeli spy device near border, claimed by Hizbollah as further evidence of Israeli infiltration of Lebanese telecommunication networks. Senior FPM official ex-General Fayez Karam 9 Dec indicted for collaborating with Israel, could face 3-15 years hard labour. Israel 20 Dec voiced concerns over French agreement to send 100 anti-tank missiles to Lebanese army for fear weapons may fall into Hizbollah’s hands. Ghandi Sahmarani, senior figure in Jund al-Sham and one of Lebanon’s most wanted men, found dead 25 Dec in Ein el-Hilweh refugee camp.
Increased tensions surrounding Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) investigation into 2005 murder of former PM Rafiq Hariri. Referring to unconfirmed reports STL would issue indictments against members of Hizbollah before 2011, Hizbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah 11 Nov threatened “hand that attempts to reach [our members] will be cut”. Further attempts to discredit STL; cabinet 10 Nov failed to reach decision on STL witnesses who Hizbollah claims provided false testimonies. Pro-Hizbollah daily Al-Akhbar 1 Nov published story detailing group’s plan to take over “large parts of Lebanon” in case of indictment of its members. Israeli PM Netanyahu 23 Nov expressed concern over possible Hizbollah “takeover”. Turkish PM Erdogan 24 Nov began official visit, called for national unity in Lebanon, warned Israel against involvement and possible new outbreak of war. PM Hariri 17 Nov declared “will not let SLT indictments harm Lebanon”, 27 Nov began 3-day trip to Iran seeking support. Amidst fears over lack of funding for tribunal U.S. 3 Nov pledged $10mn additional support; Congress 12 Nov lifted freeze on $100mn aid to Lebanese army. Clashes between civilians and Common Border Force in Wadi Khalid 5 Nov saw people 4 killed.
Continued political tension and pressure on PM Saad Hariri over Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) investigation into 2005 murder of former PM and Saad’s father Rafiq Hariri. Former General Sayyed, jailed after Hariri’s assassination for 4 years and freed 2009, 3 Oct reported Syrian judge issued 33 arrest warrants over false testimony to STL. Lebanon justice minister Ibrahim Najjar 5 Oct said will not act on warrants since not officially informed by Syria; Syrian President Assad 6 Oct said warrants had “no political meaning”. Hizbollah chief Nasrallah 28 Oct called for boycott of STL; speech came day after 2 UN investigators attacked by over 30 women during meeting at clinic in Dahyeh, Beirut. UN special envoy Terje Roed-Larsen 28 Oct warned Lebanon in “hyper-dangerous situation”. Iranian President Ahmadinejad 13-14 Oct made first official visit to Lebanon, including to areas bordering Israel. Visit criticised by U.S, Israel as provocative, also criticised by members of pro-Western March 14 alliance. French newspaper Le Figaro 25 Oct reported Hizbollah has 40,000 missiles.
Increased political tensions between PM Saad Hariri’s Future Movement and Hizbollah over Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) investigation into 2005 murder of PM Rafiq Hariri. PM Saad Hariri 6 Sept retracted 2005 charge that Syria responsible for father’s assassination, said it was politically motivated. Former General Sayyed, jailed for 4 years following assassination and freed 2009, 12 Sept said people should overthrow govt, accused Hariri, judiciary, security forces of supporting “false witnesses” who misled investigation. General prosecutor Mirza 13 Sept summoned Sayyed for questioning over statements, Sayyed 18 Sept received armed Hizbollah escort on arrival in country, said Mirza’s actions illegal. Hariri 20 Sept reaffirmed commitment to STL, Hizbollah MP Ali Fayyad called for official Lebanese stance accusing Israel of assassination. President Sleiman 21 Sept called for calm, UNSG Ban urged parties to cooperate with STL. Hizbollah 29 Sept announced will try to block Lebanon’s funding for STL, 30 Sept denied STL request to interview Hizbollah members.
Lebanese and Israeli armies clashed on border 3 Aug (See Israel/OPT). After U.S. Congressional appropriations committee 2 Aug placed hold on $100mn appropriations to Lebanese army, Lebanon 14 Aug established fund to arm military; Iran said prepared to sell country weapons. Continued tensions over Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) investigation into murder of PM Rafiq Hariri. Hizbollah chief Nasrallah 9 Aug blamed Israel for assassination, 17 Aug passed evidence to STL via state prosecutor; STL 24 Aug said evidence incomplete, requested missing information. Further arrests of suspected spies over month: military court charged senior Free Patriotic Movement member General Karam 10 Aug and Colonel Jaoudeh 18 Aug with espionage for Israel. Hizbollah and Sunni al-Ahbash group clashed in Beirut 24 Aug: 3 killed including Hizbollah official. In Damascus talks late month Syrian President Assad urged PM Hariri to preserve calm, support Hizbollah. UNSC 30 Aug voted to extend UNIFIL mandate for 1 year.
Domestic political tensions increased, as unity govt divided over reports of forthcoming indictments by Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) investigating assassination of former PM Rafiq Hariri. Hizbollah chief Nasrallah 16 July criticised STL as “Israeli project”, drawing criticism from parties within pro-Western March 14 Alliance; 22 July said had been told by PM Hariri that Hizbollah members would be indicted. President Sleiman, PM Hariri held talks with political leaders late month to ease tensions. In Beirut visit Saudi Arabian King Abdullah, Syrian President Assad 30 July met President Sleiman, PM Hariri and other leaders in attempt to reduce tensions; followed by visit of Sheikh Hamad, Emir of Qatar. Attacks on UNIFIL troops by southern villagers 29 June, 3 July, 4 July, deplored by UNSC 9 July; President and PM both expressed commitment to UNSC Resolution 1701. UN Special Coordinator Williams 14 July said parties must do more to meet commitments under 1701, echoing recent report by SG Ban; said trouble between UNIFIL and local population resolved following reconciliation efforts. Defence Minister Murr 8 July announced 3,000-5,000 Lebanese troops to be deployed to S Lebanon; reports of numbers revised downwards later in month. Israel 7 July released aerial images purportedly showing Hizbollah buildup in S Lebanon towns and villages; Israeli Defence Minister Barak 23 July said Lebanese state, not only Hizbollah, is legitimate target in future war. 2 telecom sector employees arrested for suspected espionage; followed June arrest of other worker, latter charged 13 July.
PM Hariri 1 June discussed improving bilateral relations with Iranian ambassador. Lebanon abstained from 9 June UNSC vote on expanding Iran sanctions due to divided cabinet; Hizbollah said UNSC decision “unfair”. Hizbollah 18 June denied link to new aid flotilla planned from Lebanon to Gaza; Israel same day asked govt to prevent flotilla from leaving Lebanon, threatened to use “any means necessary” to stop boats. Govt 21 June authorised flotilla to sail to Cyprus, 22 June said Israel “fully responsible” for any attack on Lebanon. National dialogue talks on national defence strategy postponed 17 June until 19 Aug. Maronite Patriarch Sfeir 2 June said Lebanon needed “single recognised army”, 17 June claimed Iran, Syria providing Hizbollah with money, weapons. Bomb 21 June, reportedly meant for Sfeir, killed 1.
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