CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
UNIFIL Commander Cuevas 5 May stated no evidence of Scud missiles in southern Lebanon. President Suleiman 10 May said Lebanese govt cannot ask Hizbollah to disarm during increased tension with Israel and before agreement on national defence strategy. In message via Spanish FM Moratinos, Israel 13 May sought to ease tension, expressed willingness to negotiate. Ahead of 24 May Washington meeting with U.S. President Obama, PM Hariri visited other Arab leaders to discuss Arab position on Middle East peace process, and ensure Arab countries’ support for Lebanon against alleged Israeli threats. 23 May municipal elections triggered several violent political disputes in south. 2 people reportedly killed 28 May in pre-election clashes in N Lebanon.
PM Hariri 19 Apr dismissed Israel’s 13 Apr accusation that Syria supplied Scud missiles to Hizbollah; Hizbollah minister Hajj Hassan 16 Apr neither confirmed nor denied. Army claimed Israeli soldiers entered Lebanese territory across border fence 10, 13 Apr; UNIFIL said no border violations occurred. Armed clashes in Bekaa valley between members of Syrian-backed Palestinian PFLP-GC 8 Apr reportedly killed 1. Leaders of main factions attended second session of national dialogue on defence strategy 15 Apr; next session scheduled for June. Thousands attended 25 Apr Beirut rally calling for secularisation of politics.
President Suleiman 9 March convened national defence strategy dialogue attended by representatives of different factions; Hizbollah’s right to retain arms central issue in talks, subsequently adjourned until 15 April. Druze leader Jumblatt 31 March met with Syrian President Assad in Damascus after expressing regret for past harsh attacks on Assad in 13 March interview. Tension in Palestinian camps as Palestinian Authority President Abbas 10 March announced reorganisation of Palestinian leadership in Lebanon including replacements of Fatah head Abu al-Aynayn, PLO armed forces chief Maqdah; Maqdah refused to step down.
Lebanese leaders, including PM Saad Hariri 10 Feb, expressed concerns about threat of war with Israel after Syrian, Israeli officials exchanged harsh warnings early month (see Syria). Hizbollah leader Nasrallah threatened reciprocal action if Israel attacked in 16 Feb speech. Army, UNIFIL protested at 24 Feb Israeli air manoeuvres in Lebanese airspace. Hariri 14 Feb called for new era in Lebanese-Syrian relations at rally by March 14 movement to mark 2005 killing of father Rafiq Hariri, widely blamed on Syria. Nasrallah 26 Feb met presidents of Syria and Iran in Damascus. Arrests of 6 suspected of spying for Israel reported 26 Feb. Severe fighting broke out 15 Feb in Ain al-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp between Fatah, Islamist faction; at least 2 killed.
Israeli ambassador to UN 7 Jan complained about explosives discovered 1km from border by UNIFIL end Dec; Israeli Defence Minister Barak 7 Jan said Israel would target govt infrastructures if attacked by Hizbollah. Increased Israeli violations of airspace in south denounced by Lebanese army 8 Jan, UNIFIL 10 Jan; army fired on Israeli aircraft 11 Jan. Israeli PM Netanyahu 23 Jan played down possibility of renewed military conflict. UNIFIL and Israeli FM representatives met 7 Jan to discuss possible Israeli pullout from northern part of Ghajar village. Armed clashes between Fatah and Jund al-Sham militias reported 2-3 Jan in Ain al-Helweh Palestinian refugee camp. Leader of Bekaa-based Palestinian faction Fatah al-Intifada rejected disarmament of militias outside camps 17 Jan.
19-20 Dec visit to Damascus by PM Hariri marked shift in Syrian-Lebanese relations following rift after Syria blamed for 2005 assassination of Hariri’s father (see Syria). New unity govt 2 Dec agreed platform endorsing Hizbollah right to retain arms for resistance, with some ministers expressing reservations; parliament endorsed govt 10 Dec. Hizbollah released new manifesto end Nov emphasising Lebanese unity as well as right to armed resistance. 2 Hamas officials killed in S Beirut bomb blast 26 Dec. 1 killed after shots fired at busload of Syrian workers near Tripoli, 21 Dec. Lebanese army reportedly fired anti-aircraft guns at Israeli warplanes violating airspace 29 Dec.
PM-designate Hariri formed national unity cabinet 9 Nov after 4 months of deadlock with opposition parties over ministry allocations. Draft of new cabinet’s policy statement prepared 25 Nov endorsed Hizbollah’s retention of arms to resist Israel despite objections of March 14 parties. President Suleiman 12 Nov held talks with Syrian President Assad in Damascus. Hizbollah 5 Nov denied link to alleged Iranian arms shipment seized by Israel 4 Nov in Mediterranean.
Efforts to form cabinet set back as PM-designate Hariri stepped down 10 Sept after opposition rejected new cabinet proposal. Hariri reappointed as PM-designate by president 16 Sept with support of 73 out of 128 MPs; new round of consultations launched 24 Sept. 2 rockets fired into Israel from southern Lebanon 11 Sept; unverified claim of responsibility by militant group Abdullah Azzam Brigades. Israel responded with 8 shells near Tyre; no casualties reported. U.S. Middle East envoy Mitchell visited Beirut 16 Sept for talks with President Suleiman. Internal Security Forces reported alleged plot to assassinate Grand Mufti Qabbani on first day of Eid alFitr. Businessman Salah Ezzedine, tied to Hizbollah, charged with fraud 12 Sept in multi-million dollar pyramid scheme.
Ongoing negotiations on formation of govt hampered by dispute over ministerial portfolio allocations and 3 Aug decision of key March 14 leader Walid Jumblatt to leave governing alliance and affiliate with president. Tensions with Israel rose over month; Israel deputy FM 10 Aug called for security cabinet to approve immediate military attack against Lebanon “to put an end to Hizbollah’s threats”; Hizbollah said will launch rockets on Tel Aviv if attacked. Security officials recaptured Fatah al-Islam member 19 Aug after escape from high-security prison day before. Booby-trap wounded 3 in Tripoli’s Allawite neighbourhood of Jabal Mohsen 13 Aug. UNIFIL mandate renewed for one year 27 July.
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