CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
In talks on new govt following 7 June election, parties agreed end month on allocating 15 cabinet posts to March 14 alliance, 10 to Hizbollah-led opposition, 5 appointed by President Suleiman. Several incidents heightened tensions in south. After arms depot exploded 14 July in Khirbet Selm near Israel border, senior UN official 24 July said “indications suggest weapons belonged to Hizbollah”, in violation of UNSCR 1701 exclusion zone. Some 70 Lebanese 17 July marched on Israeli military outpost in Kfar Shuba, established June; Israel charged UNIFIL peacekeepers’ collaboration with protest. 10 suspected members of Fatah al-Islam-linked jihadi cell arrested 21 July for plotting attacks against UN, Lebanese army. Sporadic intra-Palestinian violence in Ain al-Hilweh camp throughout month.
7 June parliamentary elections won by proWestern March 14 alliance, capturing 71 seats to opposition 57. Observers praised transparent, calm election, with only minor clashes. Future Movement leader Hariri appointed PM 27 June, began consultations aimed at forming unity govt. 1 killed in 28 June Beirut clashes between Hariri supporters and followers of Shiite Amal movement. Hizbollah officials met UK ambassador 22 June, in first contact since 2005; EU HR Solana also met Hizbollah representative 14 June. Masked gunman killed Fatah member 22 June in Ain el-Hilweh Palestinian camp; explosives-laden car found at camp entrance 16 June. Grenade thrown 22 June at Fatah member’s house in Rashdieh camp. Israeli army set up outpost on Lebanese territory in Kfar Shouba area 19 June. Syria 23 June released 23 Lebanese prisoners, including 8 formerly classified as missing.
Amid closely contested campaign for parliamentary elections set for 7 June, tensions rose after leader Nasrallah called Hizbullah’s 7 May 2008 military takeover of West Beirut “glorious day” for Resistance; March 14 alliance strongly condemned speech. U.S. VP Biden visited 22 May, said continued U.S. support depends on election outcome, policies of new govt. 7 Lebanese charged 25, 30 May with spying for Israel, bringing total to 23 since Jan; 35 suspects detained. Israel 13 May suspended discussion of withdrawal from disputed Ghajar village until after elections. Der Spiegel report 23 May claimed Hizbollah responsible for Hariri assassination; some political factions, analysts cast doubt on credibility. Acts of pre-election violence reported throughout May; opposition supporter killed in clashes 24 May.
UN tribunal on assassination of former PM Hariri 29 Apr ordered release of 4 high-ranking generals held since 2005, citing lack of evidence. U.S. Sec State Clinton in 26 Apr Beirut visit called for June elections to be fair, free of external influence, stated support for Lebanese sovereignty and “moderates”. 4 soldiers killed 13 Apr in ambush in Bekaa valley blamed on drug gang; tens arrested in army raids over following days. New Lebanese ambassador to Syria officially took up post 20 Apr.
International tribunal on killing of former PM Hariri opened in the Hague 1 March. Leaders of main national factions met 2 March in 5th round of national dialogue. UK minister 4 March announced resumption of contact with Hizbollah “political wing”. President Suleiman in Paris 18 March rejected direct talks with Israel. Senior PLO official, Fatah member Kamal Midhat among 4 dead in 23 March bombing near Mieh Mieh Palestinian camp; days before, clashes in camp killed 2. Syria appointed first ambassador to Lebanon 24 March, following Dec opening of Beirut embassy.
Isolated incidents of rocket fire into Israel 8, 14 Jan from south amid widespread anger at Israeli onslaught in Gaza (see Israel/OPT) sparked fears that country would be drawn into conflict. Hizbollah members, govt officials distanced movement from rockets, warned against Lebanese involvement in conflict; responsibility unclaimed but Palestinian militant groups suspected. Hizbollah leader Nasrallah 7 Jan condemned Israel, Egypt at Beirut rally. Numerous protests against Gaza offensive held in Beirut and elsewhere; police used tear gas to disperse protesters outside U.S. embassy 4, 18 Jan.
With Lebanese parliamentary elections due mid- 2009, Christian leader Michel Aoun visited Damascus 3-7 Dec, met with Syrian President Assad. President Suleiman hosted further national dialogue talks among rival political factions; committee on national defence strategy to be formed. Army 26 Dec found and dismantled 8 Katyusha rockets near southern town Naqura aimed toward Israel. Lebanon 28 Dec said Israeli planes violated airspace (see Israel/OPT). Hizbollah leader Nasrallah 28 Dec condemned Israeli attack on Gaza; criticised Egypt for not opening Rafah border. Suleiman backed calls for emergency Arab summit. Protests across country from 29 Dec. Moscow mid-month offered to give Lebanon 10 MIG-29 fighter jets – no response from Beirut. Unconfirmed reports 10 Dec that Shaker Absi, fugitive leader of al-Qaeda-linked group Fatah Islam, killed or captured in Syria; new leader, Abdel Awad, named. UNSC 17 Dec extended investigation into 2005 assassination of former PM Rafiq Hariri to 28 Feb, with UN tribunal expected to start up 1 March.
Relations with Damascus strained, despite Oct establishment of diplomatic ties. Syria 6 Nov broadcast Fatah al-Islam members’ confessions to 27 Sept car bombing in Damascus, accusing Saad Hariri’s pro-Western, Sunni “Future Movement” of complicity with jihadis and indicating explosives were brought from northern Lebanon, attacker was Saudi. Interior Minister Ziad Baroud and Syrian counterpart met in Damascus 10 Nov; agreed to form committee to cooperate on terrorism and crime – visit criticised in Lebanon. National reconciliation efforts led by President Suleiman continued, but undermined by hostility between Christian leaders Michel Aoun and Samir Geagea. Suleiman announced intention to form new Christian parliamentary bloc. 2 reported Israeli agents captured in Bekaa 1 Nov, linked to Feb assassination of Hizbollah commander Imad Mughniyeh in Damascus. Lebanese soldiers clashed with gunmen in Tripoli 21 Nov, killing Suleiman met Iranian President Ahmadi-Nejad in Tehran 24 Nov. Following 26 Nov report to Security Council, UNSG Ban said he expects UN special tribunal for 2005 assassination of former PM Rafiq Hariri to start operations 1 March 2009.
Syrian and Lebanese FMs signed document 15 Oct announcing start of diplomatic relations – first since independence from France in 1940s. Embassies to be opened before year end. Move welcomed in UNSG’s report on Lebanon to UNSC, which also urged improved border security and halt to paramilitary build-up. Hizbollah leader Nasrallah and “March 14” movement leader Saad Hariri held talks 26 Oct ahead of national dialogue session due in early Nov. Suspects in deadly Aug and Sept Tripoli bombings targeting military arrested 12 Oct; warrants for others sought, linked to Fatah Islam. U.S. and Lebanon set up new bilateral commission to oversee military relations and assistance.
National reconciliation talks opened 16 Sept amid string of violent incidents. Leaders of 14 political factions agreed to discuss national defence strategy, resume dialogue 5 Nov with bilateral talks in interim. Parliament approved new election law 29 Sept. Saleh Aridi – pro-Syrian opposition politician and adviser to Druze leader Talal Arslan – killed when his car exploded 11 Sept. Clash between rival Christian groups in Bsarma in north 17 Sept left 2 dead, 3 wounded. Tensions between Sunnis and Alawites in Tripoli eased with 8 Sept agreement to end recent sectarian fighting, but car bomb 29 Sept targeting army bus killed 7. Syrian troop deployment near northern border to combat smuggling reported 22 Sept. Violence continued in Ein al-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp with 2 dead in explosion 23 Sept, shooting 15 Sept. UNIFIL peacekeeper killed in explosion 3 Sept while clearing munitions from 2006 war with Israel.
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