Relative calm masked continuing instability, especially in Tripoli where 13 Aug roadside bomb at bus stop killed some 18, half soldiers. Cabinet 5 Aug unanimously approved policy statement, but with no clarification on Hizbollah’s weapons; 12 Aug approved national unity govt, confirming increased power of Hizbollah-led opposition. President Michel Suleiman 13-14 Aug met Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad in Damascus: agreed to establish full diplomatic relations and negotiate border demarcation (excluding disputed Shebaa farms). Lebanese army helicopter hit by gunfire in south, pilot killed 28 Aug; Hizbollah 29 Aug handed suspect over to military court. Brig. Gen. Jean Qahwaji appointed new army chief. UNIFIL peacekeeping force mandate renewed 1 year 27 Aug.

National unity govt formed 11 July following tensions after May Qatari-brokered agreement to resolve protracted crisis. As provided in Doha accord, Hizbollah-led opposition selected 11 ministers – sufficient for veto, ruling “March 14” coalition 16, President Suleiman remaining 3. Sectarian clashes in Tripoli continued with 4 killed, scores wounded 8-9 July despite late-June ceasefire and army deployment; 9 killed 25-26 July. Suleiman and Syrian counterpart Assad met in Paris 12-13 July during Euro-Mediterranean summit; agreed to open embassies. Diplomatic strain further eased with 21 July Beirut visit by Syrian FM Walid Mouallem. Hizbollah-Israel prisoner swap, agreed under UN-backed German mediation, carried out 16 July, after Hizbollah 12 July provided report on Israeli soldier missing since 1986. Exchange included remains of 2 soldiers seized in 2006 war (deaths previously unconfirmed) for 5 Lebanese prisoners, including man jailed 1979 for brutal raid killing child, and remains of some 200 mostly Lebanese, Palestinian. Gun battle 19 July between Fatah and Jund al- Sham Palestinian factions at Ein al-Hilweh refugee camp killed 3; roadside bomb and further fighting 29 July.

Focus shifted to formation of national unity govt after 21 May Qatari-brokered deal brought swift halt to 18-month political standoff. Negotiations over new govt continued throughout month, amid clashes in Sunni-Shiite areas – 4 killed in Bekaa Valley on 9, 17 June; at least 8 killed, scores wounded near Tripoli 22-23 June; Tripoli bomb 28 June killed 1, wounded 27. Western leaders welcomed May deal, pledged support to newly elected president Michel Suleiman, PM Fouad Siniora. Israeli cabinet 29 June approved Hizbollah prisoner swap agreed under UN-backed German mediation. Israel 1 June deported Lebanese- born prisoner convicted in 2002 of spying for Hizbollah; Hizbollah same day handed over remains of Israeli soldiers killed in 2006 war. Fatah al-Islam militants 2 June claimed responsibility for 31 May bombing at army post near Nahr al-Bared refugee camp.

Significant progress with 21 May Qatari-brokered deal to end 18-month political stalemate, following dangerous Hizbollah escalation. Group launched military operation against Sunni militias, took over West Beirut 8-10 May: at least 81 dead. Assault prompted by 6 May government decisions to reassign pro-Hizbollah Beirut airport security chief and investigate group’s independent telephone network. Opposition Hizbollah and Amal Shiite militias overwhelmed Sunni rivals, took control of pro-Western “March 14” coalition districts; fighting spread to Tripoli and Chouf mountains south east of capital 9-12 May with scores dead; army deployed, remained neutral. Govt revoked controversial decisions 14 May; initial agreement reached 15 May after Arab League intervention. 5-day Qatar negotiation produced deal: army chief Michel Suleiman as president; national unity cabinet – Hizbollah given “blocking third”; new rules for 2009 parliamentary election based on smaller district; renunciation of armed force internally; Hizbollah’s weapons to be addressed by new president. Suleiman elected by parliament 25 May; re-appointed Siniora PM 28 May; cabinet discussions 30 May. Progress reported 26 May in UN-sponsored indirect talks on Israel, Hizbollah prisoner exchange. Explosion near refugee camp in north killed soldier 31 May; suspected suicide bomber shot dead same day near Ain el-Hilweh camp.

Parliament failed again to elect president – post vacant since Nov. Hizbollah-led opposition did not participate in 22 Apr session; speaker Nabih Berri called on rival leaders to hold talks before new vote 13 May. Arab FMs meeting in Kuwait City with U.S. Sec. State Rice and UN, EU officials issued statement 22 Apr expressing “deep dismay”, urging Syria, Lebanon to “redefine and normalize ties”. UN reported gunmen momentarily blocked UNIFIL patrol in pursuit of suspicious truck near Tyre end-March – first UNIFIL encounter with “armed elements” since end 2006 Israel-Lebanon war. Audiotape 22 Apr allegedly by al-Qaeda deputy Zawahri urged militants to “expel” peacekeeping forces in Lebanon. 2 members of Christian Phalange Party, part of governing coalition, shot dead 20 Apr in Zahle. Johan Verbeke of Belgium appointed as new UN special coordinator for Lebanon.

Deadlock over election of president continued: parliamentary vote postponed 24 March for 17th time, to 22 April. Notion of “unilateral” election, with simple majority vote, gaining traction in anti-Syrian “March 14” ruling coalition; Hizbollah-led opposition considers tantamount to declaration of war. Paramilitary mobilisation drives stepped up – all parties playing active role. Lebanon invited to, but boycotted, 29-30 March Arab League summit in Damascus (see Syria). Fighting between Fatah guerrillas and Jund al-Sham militants 21 March in Ain al-Hilwe Palestinian refugee camp; at least 1 killed. 40-day mourning period for Hizbollah commander Imad Mughniyeh, killed in Damascus car bomb, ended 24 March; leader Nasrallah said UN-mediated negotiations for prisoner swap with Israel to continue. UNSG earlier reported Israel said Hizbollah rearming in south. Report of UN commission investigating 2005 assassination of former PM Rafiq Hariri said “network of individuals” involved.

Tensions remained high and political crisis continued. In Beirut, 3-year anniversary commemoration of former PM Rafiq Hariri assassination 14 Feb coincided with funeral for Hizbollah commander Imad Mughniyeh, killed in 12 Feb Damascus car bomb. Thousands of troops deployed but no serious violence; low-level clashes between rival political factions throughout month. Hizbollah threatened “open war” against Israel. 28 Feb U.S. deployed 3 warships off Lebanon coast. Arab League SG Amre Moussa left Beirut after failing to mediate presidential succession crisis; parliamentary vote on post delayed to 11 March; speculation Moussa may return 9 March 19 soldiers charged over killings of 6 opposition protesters during clashes in southern Beirut on 27 Jan; followed accusations by Hizbollah of army bias. Fatah al-Islam leader Shaker al-Abssi and 4 Syrian members of group charged for 13 Feb 2007 Beirut bus bomb. Lebanese prosecutor indicted 56 for involvement in al-Qaeda-linked groups, including Fatah al-Islam, 18 Feb. Israeli forces killed Lebanese man near border town Ghajar 3 Feb: circumstances disputed.

Risk of violent confrontation in and over Lebanon heightened. Car bomb 25 Jan killed Capt. Wissam Eid, investigator of string of political assassinations following 2005 murder of PM Rafiq Hariri. Bodyguard and 3 passersby killed; 37 wounded. Clashes 28 Jan between army and Shia protestors in southern Beirut left at least 7 dead, including opposition Hizbollah and Amal officials. Presidency vacant  since  Nov;  parliamentary  vote  again  postponed, now due 11 Feb. Arab League FMs 6 Jan endorsed plan to resolve deadlock: Gen. Michel Suliman as president, national unity government and new electoral law. SG Amre Moussa held talks with rival factions in Beirut, visited Damascus, mid- month: no breakthrough. Explosion apparently targeting U.S. embassy vehicle 15 Jan killed 3. Rockets fired from Lebanon into Israel 8 Jan: no responsibility claimed. Troops fired on Israeli  planes  over  Lebanese  territory  21  Jan.  Roadside bomb 8 Jan struck UNIFIL patrol: 2 injured.

Political crisis deepened as country faced ninth assassination in 3 years and presidency remained vacant. Pro- Western ruling bloc and pro-Syrian opposition agreed army chief Michel Suleiman consensus presidential candidate. But sides locked over required constitutional amendment and opposition demand to agree future government. Parliamentary vote on president repeatedly postponed, now due 12 January, despite intensive French, U.S., diplomacy (see Syria). Car bomb 12 December killed army head of operations General Francois Hajj – likely successor to Suleiman and first military figure in string of assassinations since former PM Rafiq Hariri killed in 2005.

Presidency vacant as pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud left office at term end 23 November. Parliamentary vote repeatedly delayed: now due 7 December. Army chief Michel Suleiman emerged as potential consensus candidate 29 November. Governing coalition led by Saad Hariri dropped opposition to necessary constitutional amendment; Christian opposition leader Michel Aoun said would support candidacy if term limited to 2 years, opposition given veto in cabinet and neutral PM installed. Power vacuum followed intensive diplomacy led by France, supported by UNSG Ban Ki-moon. Fighting broke out in Tripoli 27 November between newly- formed group loyal to Hariri, Afwaj Trablos, and pro-Syrian Islamic Unification Movement (IUM); 1 IUM militant killed. Serge Brammertz (now to move to ICTY, see Serbia), chief investigator of commission investigating 2005 assassination of former PM Rafiq Hariri, submitted latest progress report to UNSC; to be replaced by Canadian Daniel Bellemare.