CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Infighting between pro- and anti-Syrian political leaders continued to paralyse reform. UN Security Council criticised Lebanon for failing to disband militias, including Hizbollah and Palestinian armed factions. Belgian Serge Bammertz, deputy prosecutor of International Criminal Court, took over UN investigation into assassination of PM Hariri.
Anti-Syrian journalist and MP Gibran Tueni killed by car bomb 12 December, latest in series of political murders. Cabinet called for international probe into killings. In protest, 5 pro-Syrian Shiite ministers suspended participation in government, putting already fragile coalition in jeopardy. UN investigators presented second report into assassination of ex- PM Hariri, confirming Syrian officials key suspects. UN Security Council extended Hariri investigation by 6 months; asked UNSG Annan to look into expanding commission’s mandate to investigate other attacks on top Lebanese officials.
Hezbollah and Israeli soldiers clashed in disputed Shebaa Farms area; 4 Hezbollah fighters killed 21- 23 November. UN Security Council expressed concern about hostilities, which it said Hezbollah initiated. President Lahoud interviewed by UN team investigating former PM Hariri’s assassination; denied any involvement.
Head of UN commission Detlev Mehlis presented report into killing of former PM Rafik Hariri 21 October, implicating top-ranking Syrian security officials and their Lebanese allies. Police arrested 5 in connection to Hariri’s death. Mehlis commission’s mandate extended to December 2005. Rise of tensions between Lebanese armed forces and pro-Syrian Palestinian fighters outside refugee camps; PM Siniora met with Palestinian leader Abbas in Paris, called for closure of Palestinian military bases and regulation of fighters inside refugee camps.
Country consolidated realignment from Syrian to Franco-American axis with visit of U.S. Sec. State Rice to Beirut and growing isolation of pro-Syrian President Lahoud; Maronite Patriarch appeared to withdraw support from Lahoud, but president pledged to serve out term until 2007. Rice called for Hizbullah disarmament, but did not denounce integration into Lebanon’s cabinet, marking possible acceptance of Hizbullah transformation into political party. Investigation into murder of former PM Rafiq Hariri continued with UN investigator visiting Damascus at Syria’s invitation. 1 killed in Beirut explosion 16 September; 25 September bomb seriously injured anti-Syrian television journalist May Chidiac. Authorities foiled apparent car-bombing attempt 1 October.
3 former pro-Syrian security chiefs and head of Republican Guard detained for questioning at request of UN officials investigating murder of former PM Rafik Hariri. At least 5 wounded in Beirut shopping centre explosion 22 August; motivation unknown. PM Fuad Siniora held talks with Syrian officials in Damascus; both sides declared future relationship to be built on “mutual respect”. Despite Syrian agreement to lift roadblocks at border, flow of Lebanese goods still delayed. UN envoy Geir Pedersen urged Foreign Minister Fawzi Salloukh to deploy forces in south, where Hizbollah guerrillas and Israeli forces exchanged fire.
President Lahoud approved PM Fouad Siniora’s cabinet after rejection of 3 previous drafts. In major development, new government includes Hizbollah’s Mohammed Fneish as energy minister; UN said Hizbollah should join national army. 2 Beirut car bombs 12/22 July injured dozens, including pro-Syrian Defence Minister Elias al-Murr. After parliament granted amnesty to anti-Syrian ex-militia leader Samir Geagea, clashes broke out between his supporters and members of Shia Amal movement; 1 killed.
Fear and disenchantment increased as elections plagued by sharp rise in sectarianism and prominent activists assassinated. Anti-Syrian coalition led by Saad Hariri, son of slain former PM Rafik Hariri, secured majority in parliamentary elections, winning 72 of 128 seats; nominated long-time aide of Rafik Hariri, Fuad Saniora, as PM. Implications for reform unclear, as leading power-brokers remained in positions of influence - though calls on pro-Syrian President Lahoud to resign mounted. Tensions rose as separate car bomb attacks killed anti-Syrian journalist Samir Kassir and former Communist party leader (and prominent Syria critic) George Hawi. UN team investigating murder of Rafik Hariri questioned head of presidential guard. Hizbollah mortar attack killed Israeli soldier 29 June; further clashes reported month-end.
First of 4-round parliamentary elections held 29 May in Beirut under international supervision. Opposition figures, including Druze leader Walid Jumblatt and Saad al- Hariri, son of slain former PM, won landslide victory but turnout lower than 30%. Michel Aoun, former army commander and prime minister returned 7 May to Lebanon after 14-year exile. Opposition split 25 May led Aoun to announce his Free Patriotic Movement would run independently. Hizbollah looking to increase political power through election: 13 candidates already won uncontested seats. Latest in series of bombs in Christian areas killed 1, injured 7 in town of Jounieh 6 May.
Pro-Syrian moderate Najib Mikati appointed PM following resignation of Omar Karami; formed cabinet 19 April, breaking 6-week deadlock between opposition and government. Mikati’s government won vote of confidence 27 April; legislative elections scheduled to begin 29 May. Vote came day after final Syrian withdrawal of troops and intelligence agents in accordance with UNSC Resolution 1559. But leader of Hizbollah, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, vowed to defy UN demands for Hizbollah to disarm and join political process, saying would keep arms as long as Israel remained threat.
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