Lebanon Govt formation efforts remained stalled while gunmen killed prominent activist and Hizbollah critic, raising fears of wave of political assassinations. Govt formation remained at standstill amid gulf between PM-designate Hariri and President Aoun on cabinet proposed by Hariri in Dec; leaked list of candidates 17 Feb showed individuals with no political background and some listed without having been consulted. During 9 Feb visit to capital Beirut, Qatari FM Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani raised “comprehensive economic program to support Lebanon” once govt formation completed. Amid French-led efforts to establish new govt, Hariri and French President Macron 10 Feb met to discuss situation. Unidentified assailants 3 Feb allegedly abducted Shiite political activist and Hizbollah critic Lokman Slim near Srifa, southern Lebanon; Slim next day found dead from gunshot wounds near Sidon. Following death, activists and supporters of Slim warned of return to 2004-2013 era of political assassinations while many blamed Hizbollah, which 4 Feb condemned killing; Aoun same day called for investigation. Meanwhile, Lebanese army by 4 Feb arrested 30 demonstrators in Tripoli city on riot charges for alleged role in Jan unrest. Court of cassation 18 Feb dismissed Judge Fadi Sawan in charge of investigation into deadly Beirut port blast last Aug; families of victims 18-19 Feb protested decision outside Palace of Justice. Govt 14 Feb began rolling out COVID-19 vaccinations; concerns over fairness of distribution 23 Feb surfaced amid reports of lawmakers receiving preferential access to vaccinations, prompting World Bank to warn it would suspend COVID-19 support if violation of terms of agreement confirmed. UN Security Council 20 Feb extended funding for special tribunal investigating 2005 assassination of Lebanon’s former PM Rafik Hariri. Hizbollah 1 Feb claimed it downed Israeli drone, ten days after Israel claimed it shot down drone that allegedly entered its airspace from Lebanon.

Amid worsening economic crisis and COVID-19 lockdown, deadly protests erupted; meanwhile, govt formation remained stalled. Govt 14 Jan imposed 11-day lockdown; 21 Jan extended it by two weeks. Taxi drivers 20 Jan clashed with security forces in capital Beirut in protest against lockdown measures; clashes reportedly left some protesters injured. In northern city Tripoli, protests against lockdown and lack of govt support 25-28 Jan turned violent; protesters 28 Jan set municipality building on fire whilesecurity forces responded with live bullets amid clashes that left one protester dead and more than 400 people injured, including 40 soldiers and police. Meanwhile, relations between PM-designate Hariri – whom lawmakers nominated in Oct 2020 to form new govt – and President Aoun reached new low after leaked video 12 Jan showed Aoun accusing Hariri of lying about their exchanges over govt formation process. Gebran Bassil – leader of largest Christian political party Free Patriotic Movement – 10 Jan ruled out joining new govt, citing Hariri’s insistence on appointing all ministers. In response to deepening economic crisis, World Bank 12 Jan approved credit of $246mn to support 147,000 vulnerable families that will enable cash assistance of 100,000 Lebanese lira per person per month – equivalent to $12 on black market. NGO Human Rights Watch 13 Jan lamented “sharp decline in human rights” due to “failure to address the massive political and economic crises”. Swiss authorities 19 Jan said they had requested legal assistance from Lebanon’s judiciary with investigation into money laundering and possible embezzlement tied to Central Bank; Central Bank’s governor Riad Salameh same day denied allegations, 21 Jan answered questions from Lebanon’s public prosecutor; in separate case, judge 28 Jan charged Salameh with dereliction of duty and breach of trust over alleged mishandling of foreign currency scheme. Internationally, caretaker FM Charbel Wehbe 12 Jan filed complaint to UN Security Council about Israel’s violations of Lebanese airspace. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Air Force Commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh 2 Jan claimed Lebanon owed its missile capabilities to Iran, describing it as “front line of confrontation”; Aoun next day said “the Lebanese have no partner in preserving [their] independence”.

Political deadlock over govt formation persisted while senior officials were charged with negligence for deadly August Beirut blast, prompting pushback from political elite. After Central Bank governor Riad Salameh 1 Dec said subsidies for basic commodities could only continue for two more months, protesters 7 Dec took to streets across country, including in capital Beirut; UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) and International Labour Organization 7 Dec warned removal of subsidies would inflict “social catastrophe”; Diab 29 Dec said rationing foreign reserves could stretch subsidies for another six months. French President Macron and UN Sec-Gen António Guterres in virtual aid conference 2 Dec announced creation of fund handled by World Bank, UN and EU, while reiterating aid was contingent upon formation of new govt and political reforms. PM-designate Hariri – whom lawmakers nominated in Oct to form new govt – 9 Dec presented President Aoun with line-up of new govt but deadlock persisted; Aoun and Hariri 14 Dec blamed each other for delay in govt formation. Meanwhile, Fadi Sawwan – judge responsible for investigating 4 Aug deadly Beirut port explosion – 10 Dec charged caretaker PM Diab and three former ministers for negligence; move sparked criticism among political elite as Diab 10 Dec questioned legitimacy of charges and 14 Dec refused questioning, while caretaker Interior Minister Mohammed Fahmi 14 Dec said he would not enforce arrest warrants for officials, and two of accused ex-ministers asked Court of Cassation to replace judge. Sawwan 17 Dec suspended investigation for ten days to respond to legal challenges to his authority. After various private universities announced tuition hikes, clashes 19 Dec broke out between police and student protesters. In north, group of Lebanese nationals 26 Dec set fire to refugee settlement, destroying camp and injuring at least four; army 27 Dec announced arrest of two Lebanese and six Syrian nationals allegedly involved in altercation that led to incident. Following postponement of maritime border talks with Israel scheduled for early Dec, Aoun 2 Dec reiterated difficulties in negotiations could be overcome, while U.S. Sec State Pompeo 22 Dec said Israel and Lebanon remained “far apart”.

Formation of new cabinet remained stalled while Central Bank audit delays further hampered progress toward necessary reforms. PM-designate Hariri – whom lawmakers nominated last month to form new govt – struggled throughout month to overcome disputes over allocation of executive portfolios: major Christian parties sought to nominate Christian ministers while Hariri 13 Nov called Hizbollah “a big obstacle” to creating govt of “independent experts” as group remained opposed to his leadership. Citing banking secrecy laws, Central Bank governor Riyad Salameh 2 Nov refused to submit documents to U.S.-based company Alvarez & Marsal conducting Central Bank audit, although audit is necessary prerequisite for bailout talks to resume with International Monetary Fund (IMF). Finance Minister Ghazi Wazni 5 Nov extended deadline for document submission by three months; Alvarez & Marsal 20 Nov, however, terminated its contract citing lack of transparency. Parliament 27 Nov renewed commitment to undertake forensic audit of Central Bank. Further complicating process, U.S. 6 Nov sanctioned Free Patriotic Movement leader Gebran Bassil – President Aoun’s son-in-law and heir-apparent – for corruption under Global Magnitsky Act in highest-profile round of designations to date; Bassil 17 Nov vowed to quit politics if found guilty of corruption. With international assistance dependent on elusive institutional reform, French Middle East envoy Patrick Durel 13 Nov met with Aoun to urge speedy govt formation to release financial support from IMF; France 28 Nov scheduled new international donor conference for early Dec. Meanwhile, unidentified assailants 13 Nov infiltrated Byblos mosque, injuring local sheikh; some 100 people next day protested downtown in capital Tripoli to denounce attack. At least 270 Syrian families 27 Nov left Bsharri town amid reprisal attacks following murder allegedly committed by Syrian. Internationally, Israeli military 10 Nov claimed downing of Hizbollah drone allegedly violating Israeli airspace; Lebanese and Israeli delegations next day held third round of UN-mediated maritime border delineation talks in southern town of Naqoura. 

Former PM Saad Hariri returned to power as new PM while govt began negotiations with Israel on disputed maritime border. Following PM-designate Adib’s resignation last month, former PM Saad Hariri – who stepped down following mass demonstrations last year – 8 Oct declared himself “the natural candidate” to form unity govt; despite opposition from major Christian parties, Hariri 22 Oct earned mandate to form new govt after receiving narrow parliamentary support in consultations held with President Michel Aoun, vowing to lead non-aligned technocratic cabinet and implement French-led reform initiative. In first non-security related talks in three decades, Lebanon and Israel began negotiations to delineate maritime border: Lebanese and Israeli delegations 2 Oct confirmed agreement on terms of negotiations; U.S.-mediated discussions 14 and 28 Oct took place at UN base in southern Naqoura town; Hizbollah 8 Oct declared negotiations over border did not amount to “reconciliation” or “normalisation” with Israel. Amid fraying security situation, rival clans in eastern Beqaa valley early Oct threatened confrontation with heavy machine guns and medium-range missiles; Lebanese Armed Forces 8 Oct deployed to Baalbek to prevent further escalation, arresting over dozen; clashes resumed late Oct. Meanwhile, local police reports publicised late Oct indicated boom in petty crime, robbery and murder in Lebanon in last year. Protesters outside French embassy in Beirut 30 Oct clashed with police, leaving three injured. U.S. Treasury 23 Oct imposed sanctions on senior Hizbollah members Nabil Qaouk and Hassan al-Baghdadi of party’s central council. Daily COVID-19 cases tripled since early Sept while foreign exchange reserves dwindled, threatening stocks of medical supplies.
 

New PM-designate resigned after failing to form govt amid deepening political polarisation, increased U.S. pressure on Hizbollah and clashes in capital Beirut. Following govt’s resignation last month, French President Emmanuel Macron 1 Sept arrived in Beirut to pressure political elite to kickstart reforms to counter deteriorating economic crisis and secure commitment from new PM-designate Adib – former ambassador to Germany appointed PM-designate 31 Aug – to form govt within 15 days. However, by mid-Sept deadline Adib failed to form new govt due to dispute over allocation of finance portfolio and U.S.-France disagreement over role of Hizbollah. Adib 26 Sept resigned citing govt formation gridlock; Macron next day said there would be “serious consequences” for politicians who failed to uphold deal. Meanwhile, U.S. increased financial pressure on companies and individuals linked to Hizbollah: U.S. Treasury 9 Sept sanctioned Hizbollah allies, former Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil and Youssef Finianos of the Christian Marada Movement; 17 Sept sanctioned two Lebanese companies and one individual for allegedly funneling funds to Hizbollah. President Macron expressed concern over sanctions, warning that confrontation with Hizbollah could further hamper reform efforts. In sign of worsening security across country, violence between rival political groups broke out in Beirut: in Tariq al-Jdide neighbourhood, clashes involving rifles and rocket-propelled grenades 7 Sept erupted between Sunni groups affiliated with former PM Saad Hariri and followers of his brother Bahaa, killing one and injuring two; in eastern suburb, clashes 14 Sept broke out between Christian party Free Patriotic Movement and Lebanese Forces. Four Lebanese soldiers 14 Sept killed in operation to apprehend alleged jihadist militant suspected of planning late Aug attack in Kaftoun village that killed three people; shootout between army and jihadist militants 27 Sept killed three near Miniyeh. Daily COVID-19 cases 14 Sept surged past 1,000 for the first time since outbreak. Accidental explosion at suspected Hizbollah arms depot 22 Sept rocked southern town of Ain Qana, reportedly causing four casualties. 

Massive explosion in capital Beirut fuelled violent anti-govt protests and prompted PM Diab’s govt to resign. In port of Beirut, large stockpile of highly explosive ammonium nitrate – stored, despite repeated warnings, near densely populated area without adequate safety measures – 4 Aug reportedly caught fire and triggered massive explosion that killed at least 190, injured some 7,000 and displaced up to 300,000. Catastrophe and govt negligence sparked popular anger against political elite: thousands 8-9 Aug took to streets of Beirut demanding justice; clashes broke out with security forces killing one police officer and reportedly injuring over 700 civilians and 70 security personnel. PM Diab 10 Aug announced resignation of his govt and blamed disaster in Beirut on corruption of political elite whom he accused of thwarting his reform efforts. Parliament 31 Aug voted diplomat Mustapha Adib as new PM and President Aoun tasked him with forming govt. French President Macron 6 Aug travelled to Beirut and vowed to provide Lebanese people with support but warned that “if reforms are not carried out, Lebanon will continue to sink”. During emergency donor conference spearheaded by France, international donors 9 Aug pledged some $250mn in humanitarian relief; International Monetary Fund (IMF) director Kristalina Georgieva 9 Aug said IMF was ready to “redouble” efforts to help Lebanon. In north, unidentified gunmen night of 21-22 Aug killed three in Kaftoun village; security forces 23-24 Aug arrested several suspects and attempted to arrest another one who reportedly blew himself up. Shiite religious banners 27 Aug triggered clashes between Shiites and Sunnis killing two in Khaldeh. Special Tribunal for Lebanon 18 Aug convicted in absentia one Hizbollah member and acquitted three others for involvement in assassination of former PM Rafik Hariri in 2005, confirming that no evidence was found implicating Hizbollah’s leadership or the Syrian regime. In south, Hizbollah 22 Aug claimed downing Israeli drone near Aita al-Shaab village; alleged cross-border attack by Hizbollah on Israeli troops night of 25-26 Aug prompted retaliatory airstrikes on Hizbollah posts. Amid surge in COVID-19 cases, caretaker govt 21 Aug imposed two-week partial lockdown and night time curfew.

Amid deepening economic crisis, anti-govt protests continued and talks with International Monetary Fund (IMF) remained deadlocked. Exchange rate on black market early July for first time crossed 10,000 Lebanese lira to the dollar, up from 8,000 on 30 June; marking loss of 85% since beginning of crisis in Oct 2019. In response to rising inflation and poverty rate, Central Bank 6 July announced it will provide foreign currency at fixed exchange rate of 3,900 Lebanese lira to the dollar for essential food industries. Anti-govt protests continued across country, fuelled by widespread electricity blackouts of up to 22 hours per day and reports of suicides of two men on 3 July that many blamed on govt’s inept response to deepening economic crisis; protesters 6 July took to streets in capital Beirut, blocking several roads. Negotiations with IMF continued to stall over divisions within Lebanese delegation regarding magnitude and distribution of financial losses. After IMF director Kristalina Georgieva 17 July confirmed no progress had been made in previous 17 rounds of talks, French FM Jean-Yves Le Drian 23 July urged govt to finalise deal with IMF and enact reforms. Following 20 July killing of Hizbollah militant in reported Israeli air raid in Syria, tensions flared between Israel Defence Forces and Hizbollah members in 27 July purported border incident; Israel accused Hizbollah of infiltrating Israeli territory in disputed area along border; no casualties reported; Hizbollah same day denied launching operation and accused Israel of inventing “false and mythical victories”. Authorities 12 July reported highest daily increase in COVID-19 cases with 166 new infections, bringing total number of cases to 2,344. Meanwhile, Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah 7 July accused U.S. ambassador Dorothy Shea of “colonial” behaviour; move comes after Shea publicly criticised Hizbollah late June. U.S. General Kenneth McKenzie in meeting with President Michel Aoun 8 July reaffirmed Washington’s support for “security, stability and sovereignty” in Lebanon. In response, dozens of demonstrators, including Hizbollah supporters, 10 July rallied outside U.S. embassy in Beirut to protest Washington’s alleged interference in Lebanese internal affairs in second anti-U.S. assembly in Beirut this month.

Unprecedented currency collapse sparked renewed anti-govt protests while negotiations with International Monetary Fund (IMF) stalled due to disagreement between govt and banks over magnitude of financial losses. As anti-govt protests 6 June erupted in centre of capital Beirut, clashes fuelled by sectarian invective broke out as some protesters called for disarmament of Hizbollah, leaving 48 demonstrators and 25 soldiers reportedly injured; political and religious leaders next day called for calm. Hizbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah 17 June reaffirmed group’s resistance to any attempt to coerce party into disarming through economic pressure. Exchange rate on black market 11 June for first time crossed 5,000 Lebanese lira to the dollar and stood above 8,000 on 30 June, despite govt’s new pricing system aimed at gradually reducing rate; currency depreciated by more than 80% since beginning of crisis in Oct 2019. Following currency crash, anti-govt protesters across country including in cities of Beirut, Tripoli and Sidon 11-13 June took to streets; some rallies turned violent, with protesters attacking banks and commercial property. PM Diab 12 June held emergency meeting, announced Central Bank will inject dollars into market to mitigate currency collapse. Meanwhile, negotiations with IMF over rescue package stalled due to disagreement between govt and banks over scale and distribution of financial sector losses; banks insist on repayments of internal debt and deposits through selling state assets whereas govt previews “bail-in” solution affecting shareholders of banks and depositors alike. PM Diab 10 June announced senior govt appointments widely seen as controversial due to background of appointees, sparking doubts that govt is serious about installing technocratic experts to address economic crisis. IMF 19 June emphasised need for consensus to move reforms forward, warned of “deeper-than-expected” GDP contraction in second quarter of 2020. President Aoun 25 June convened national dialogue despite opposition’s boycott and protests; warned of “atmosphere of civil war”. Govt 30 June raised price of partially subsidised bread, sparking further protests in Beirut.

Amid tanking economy and continued social and financial hardship affecting millions, govt 1 May applied for International Monetary Fund (IMF) financial assistance following IMF’s 30 April approval of economic reform plan; govt 13 May reportedly began negotiations with IMF. Hundreds of anti-govt protesters 1 May gathered in front of Central Bank in capital Beirut to demonstrate against devaluation of currency and rising inflation. Banking sector 1 May rejected govt rescue plan on grounds it will “further destroy confidence” in country, 20 May presented counter proposal. Prosecutor 18 May charged senior Central Bank official with manipulation of exchange rate and money laundering; Central Bank 15 May denied charges. Despite Central Bank’s efforts to impose rate of 3,200 Lebanese lira to the dollar through repressive measures, Lebanese lira 20 May remained at 4,200 on black market; in effort to defend currency, Central Bank 21 May announced it will provide dollars for food imports. Hizbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah 26 May rejected U.S. and Israeli pressure to change nature of mandate of UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL); U.S. ambassador to UN 4 May said “the time has come to either pursue serious change to empower UNIFIL or to realign UNIFIL’s staffing and resources with tasks it can actually accomplish.”