CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

Filters

Middle East & North Africa

Lebanon

Dire economic conditions continued to worsen amid COVID-19 outbreak despite govt efforts to soften impact; anti-govt protests mid-April resumed in Tripoli city and capital Beirut. Govt 1 April announced emergency support of 400,000 Lira for particularly hard-hit families; Central Bank next day instructed banks to pay out small depositors at rate near real value of Lebanese Lira, raising concerns about further devaluation of currency; Lebanese Lira continued to depreciate throughout month, 27 April reaching 4,200 to the dollar on black market. Leaked govt economic reform proposal early April sparked controversy over plans to use large deposits to cover banking losses. Meanwhile, Hizbollah announced plan to rely on 20,000 volunteers, 4,500 doctors and nurses, and 32 health centres across country to help counter COVID-19 spread. Reports 22 April of first COVID-19 case in al-Jalil Palestinian refugee camp, which hosts 9,400 people, in Bekaa Valley raised fear of wider spread among vulnerable population. Govt 9 April extended nationwide state of emergency until 26 April, thereafter announced five-phase plan to end lockdown with 27 April opening of some businesses. Six months after mass rallies first erupted over corruption and economic hardship, several hundred anti-govt protesters 17 April returned to streets in Tripoli in defiance of lockdown to demonstrate against soaring food prices leading to death of one protester on 27 April. Protesters 21 April drove around Beirut in cars to express discontent with political leadership; protestors 24-28 April launched wave of firebomb attacks on banks in Sidon, Tyre and Tripoli reportedly in response to currency deterioration.

Middle East & North Africa

Lebanon

Govt’s measures to slow spread of COVID-19 dealt further blow to economy already in dire straits. To prevent spread of virus, govt 15 March declared state of mobilisation including closure of airport 18 March and of many businesses until 29 March and deployed army and riot police to enforce social distancing; 26 March extended measures till 12 April. Lebanese Lira continued to depreciate, 6 March surpassing 2,700 to the dollar on black market. PM Diyab 7 March declared Lebanon will default on foreign debt payment, deciding against payment of Eurobonds maturing 9 March. In televised speech, Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah 13 March said it may approve assistance from International Monetary Fund on certain conditions, moderating previous statements by party representatives that indicated strong rejection. In defiance of instructions by Finance Minister Ghazi Wazni, Lebanese banks 16 March announced they would close until 29 March during nationwide mobilisation to contain COVID-19. By 30 March some banks opened branches for limited hours and for non-cash operations only, while others were receiving clients on appointment.

Middle East & North Africa

Lebanon

Parliament gave new govt vote of confidence as anti-govt protesters clashed with security forces. In capital Beirut, govt 6 Feb approved financial rescue plan that includes taking “painful steps” to tackle economic crisis. Parliament 11 Feb gave govt vote of confidence, as protesters attempting to disrupt parliamentary session clashed with security forces, leaving around 400 protesters injured. Lebanon 12 Feb formally requested International Monetary Fund (IMF) to send delegation to help draw up comprehensive rescue plan. Team of IMF advisers 20-24 Feb met PM Diab and other govt representatives and discussed options to overcome crisis. Hizbollah 25 Feb said it opposed IMF managing financial crisis.

Middle East & North Africa

Lebanon

Anti-govt protests grew and clashes with security forces intensified as dire economic conditions continued to deteriorate and PM Diab’s announcement of new cabinet failed to appease protesters. Protests swelled mid-Jan as value of Lebanese Lira 13 Jan fell to 2,500 to the dollar in parallel market, 40% drop since Aug 2019, further eroding citizens’ purchasing power and leading private sector to cut salaries and central bank to limit cash withdrawals and transfers outside country. In Beirut, riot police 14 Jan clashed with protesters near central bank HQ, police arrested 57. Protesters next day gathered outside police station demanding demonstrators’ release and clashed with police, who arrested at least 55 more. Protests 18 and 19 Jan escalated in downtown Beirut as security forces attempted to disperse protesters with water cannon, tear gas and rubber bullets, leaving several hundred people injured. Diab 21 Jan announced new cabinet backed by Hizbollah and allied parties; parliament still has to give cabinet vote of confidence. Protesters rejected cabinet as part of elite they seek to oust. Lawmakers 27 Jan passed 2020 budget aimed at tackling economic crisis as protesters outside parliament clashed with security forces, at least 27 injured. UK, which classified Hizbollah in its entirety as terrorist organisation in March 2019, 17 Jan expanded asset-freezing measures, previously targeting military wing, to include Hizbollah’s political wing.

Middle East & North Africa

Lebanon

President Aoun appointed former minister Hassan Diab as new PM and anti-govt protests continued to lead to violence. Following PM Hariri’s resignation in Oct, consensus appeared to form early Dec on accepting businessman Samir Khatib as new PM. But after Khatib withdrew his candidacy 8 Dec, former and caretaker PM Hariri emerged as front runner. Hariri 18 Dec withdrew his candidacy after two largest Christian parties said they would not endorse him. Parliament 19 Dec voted former education minister Hassan Diab to become new PM and Aoun tasked him with forming govt. Diab said he planned to form govt of technocrats within six weeks. International Support Group for Lebanon in Paris 11 Dec conditioned financial aid on formation of credible govt committed to implementing economic reforms. Unrest mid-Dec left dozens injured. In capital Beirut, security forces 14 Dec prevented suspected supporters of Hizbollah and Shiite Amal Movement from attacking anti-govt protesters. Security forces later that night and 15 Dec clashed with anti-govt protesters. Scuffles broke out night of 16-17 Dec as security forces prevented Hizbollah and Amal supporters from reaching anti-govt protesters. Suspected Hizbollah and Amal supporters 17 Dec attacked several protest camps throughout country.

Middle East & North Africa

Lebanon

Following govt’s resignation late Oct, anti-govt protests continued across Lebanon. Protesters demanded new govt independent from ruling political class to address economic crisis and widespread corruption. President Aoun’s 12 Nov speech, in which he indicated that formation of new govt could be further delayed, provoked public outrage and sparked new wave of demonstrations in capital Beirut and across country. Soldier attempting to disperse protesters later that day in Khaldeh, 15km south of Beirut shot and killed one. Reports that major political parties had agreed that former finance minister Mohammed Safady would replace Hariri as PM prompted thousands to take to streets in Beirut and Tripoli rejecting Safady’s nomination on grounds that he is part of current ruling elite; Safady 16 Nov withdrew his candidacy. Hariri 26 Nov withdrew his candidacy for PM. Scuffles broke out in Beirut 19 Nov between police and protesters blocking MPs from reaching parliament to discuss law that could provide amnesty for range of offences including corruption and misuse of public funds; parliament later that day postponed parliamentary session indefinitely. Protesters clashed with supporters of Hizbollah and Shiite Amal Movement throughout country 24-26 Nov. Scuffles broke out in Beirut 26 Nov between supporters of Hizbollah and those of Christian party Lebanese Forces. Same day, confrontations broke out across Lebanon between protesters and supporters of President Aoun leaving dozens injured.

Middle East & North Africa

Lebanon

Govt’s announcement of austerity measures sparked nationwide anti-govt protests which paralysed country and PM Hariri resigned. Govt 17 Oct announced austerity measures to address economic crisis, including tax on use of social media platform WhatsApp, prompting thousands to take to streets, first in capital Beirut and then across country; crowds complained of govt corruption and economic mismanagement and demanded that govt resign. In Beirut, police 17-18 Oct tried to disperse protesters with tear gas and rubber bullets, leaving several dozen protesters and police injured, and arrested at least 70 protesters. Two Syrians 18 Oct died in Beirut after building they were in near protests caught fire. In Tripoli, protesters 18 Oct attacked former MP attempting to join demonstration, prompting his bodyguards to open fire and reportedly kill two. Christian party Lebanese Forces 19 Oct resigned from govt citing latter’s lack of will to reform. Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah same day expressed support for protests, but opposed govt’s resignation. In strongholds of Hizbollah and Shiite Amal Movement in south, protesters attacked Hizbollah and Amal offices. Gunmen allegedly affiliated with Amal movement 19 and 20 Oct attacked protesters in Tyre and Nabatieh leaving several injured; Amal denied involvement. PM Hariri’s 21 Oct announcement of economic reform package to resolve crisis failed to appease demonstrators. Security forces 21 Oct blocked hundreds of purported Hizbollah and Amal supporters from reaching downtown Beirut; Hizbollah and Amal denied involvement. Hassan Nasrallah 25 Oct claimed protests were diverging from initial goals and serving political and external interests and announced withdrawal of Hizbollah supporters; in following days violence by Amal/Hizbollah supporters against protesters increased. PM Hariri resigned 29 Oct over differences concerning govt reshuffle and reform agenda. President Aoun next day requested govt to remain in place until new cabinet formed. In south, civilian 23 Oct shot down Israeli drone over Kfar Kila.

Middle East & North Africa

Lebanon

Tensions between Lebanon and Israel remained high as Hizbollah and Israel exchanged cross-border fire for first time in years. Following alleged Israeli drone strikes on Hizbollah assets in capital Beirut late Aug, Hizbollah 1 Sept launched at least two anti-tank missiles into northern Israel, hitting military vehicle, but causing no casualties. Israel retaliated same day with artillery fire and airstrikes targeting Hizbollah assets near border, causing no casualties. PM Hariri same day called on U.S. and France to intervene. Israel 3 Sept accused Hizbollah of building missile factory in Bekaa Valley in east. Hizbollah 9 Sept claimed it had shot down Israeli drone over Ramiyeh in south near Israeli border; Israel said that drone had fallen down. U.S. 10 Sept issued sanctions against four Hizbollah members; 12 Sept said future sanctions could target Hizbollah’s allies. After deadly shooting in June left govt paralysed for weeks, two members of rival Druze parties 4 Sept exchanged gunfire in Choueifat just south of Beirut, no injuries reported. Protesters 29 Sept demonstrated across Lebanon over worsening economic situation; clashes between security forces and demonstrators reported in Beirut.

Middle East & North Africa

Lebanon

President Aoun called suspected Israeli drone strikes on Iran-allied militias in Lebanon a declaration of war, raising risk of escalation in Sept. In capital Beirut, two Israeli drones 25 Aug attacked Hizbollah stronghold, one crashed and other exploded and damaged its media centre; attack reportedly targeted and destroyed equipment related to Hizbollah’s precision-guided missiles program. Israel 26 Aug conducted drone attack on military posts of Iran-backed armed group Popular Front for Liberation of Palestine-General Command near Qusaya in east, no reported casualties. President Aoun 26 Aug called Beirut attack “declaration of war” and PM Hariri called it “blatant violation of Lebanese sovereignty”. Hizbollah leader Nasrallah same day condemned “aggression”, pledging to down any Israeli aircraft that entered Lebanese airspace and retaliate for future Israeli killings of Hizbollah members in Syria. Political deadlock over deadly shoot-out in June involving supporters of two rival Druze parties thawed mid-Aug. Leaders of rival parties met and reconciled 9 Aug; cabinet next day convened for first time in six weeks. Following talks in Washington with U.S. Sec State Pompeo, Hariri 15 Aug expressed his commitment to U.S.-led negotiation process to resolve Israel-Lebanon land and maritime border dispute.

Middle East & North Africa

Lebanon

Disagreement in cabinet over which judicial body should handle case of deadly shooting in June paralysed govt, and hundreds protested against austerity budget. Shooting at convoy of refugee affairs minister near capital Beirut late June that killed two of his assistants paralysed govt because cabinet was divided on which judicial body should prosecute case; several mediation attempts failed. Civil servants 17 July went on strike nationwide and hundreds gathered in Beirut to protest austerity measures. Army veterans 18 July clashed with security forces outside parliament where legislators were discussing 2019 budget. Veterans next day again clashed with security forces and parliament ratified budget. Protesters vowed to challenge budget in court. As U.S.-Iran tensions continued to rise, U.S. imposed additional sanctions on Hizbollah: 9 July added two Hizbollah MPs and one security official to sanctions list; 19 July imposed sanctions on Hizbollah security official.

Subscribe to Crisis Group’s Email Updates

Receive the best source of conflict analysis right in your inbox.