CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

Filters

Middle East & North Africa

Lebanon

PM Hariri 4 Nov announced his surprise resignation in televised address from Saudi capital, Riyadh, citing excessive influence of Hizbollah and Iran in Lebanon and assassination threats. After Yemeni Huthi rebels, whom Saudi Arabia accuses Hizbollah of training, launched missile toward Riyadh 4 Nov, Saudi govt 6 Nov said it considered Hizbollah “aggression” and its participation in Lebanese govt to be “declaration of war” by Lebanon against Saudi Arabia. Hizbollah 10 Nov said Saudi had “declared war on Lebanon” by detaining Hariri. President Aoun 15 Nov said Saudi Arabia was detaining Hariri and demanded his return. Following French mediation, Hariri 18 Nov left Riyadh for Paris and returned to Beirut 21 Nov. Next day he suspended his resignation at Aoun’s request. New Saudi ambassador to Lebanon arrived in Beirut 20 Nov after predecessor left Sept 2016. Hizbollah 20 Nov said it would wind down its engagement in Iraq.

Middle East & North Africa

Lebanon

President Aoun 16 Oct said Syrian refugees in Lebanon should return to “stable and low-tension areas” in Syria, because Lebanon could no longer cope with strain of hosting them. Parliament 19 Oct passed 2017 budget, first since 2005. As part of effort to undermine Iran’s influence in region, U.S. 25 Oct imposed new sanctions on Iran-backed Lebanese Shiite political and military movement Hizbollah, including for allegedly using civilians as human shields in 2006 conflict with Israel.

Middle East & North Africa

Lebanon

Israeli army 5 Sept began ten-day drills simulating conflict with Hizbollah including manoeuvres into Lebanese territory. Israeli jets 10 Sept broke sound barrier flying over southern Lebanese city of Saida; govt 11 Sept said it would file complaint at UN for violation of its airspace. President Aoun 8 Sept said army would deploy along border with Syria cleared in late Aug of Islamic State (ISIS) fighters. Army 15 Sept reportedly arrested nineteen ISIS militants allegedly planning to carry out “terrorist action”. Aoun 20 Sept rejected call from UN peacekeeping mission (UNIFIL) to adopt stronger stance toward Hizbollah’s activities on southern border, saying he could not ask Hizbollah to lay down weapons when country is still facing urgent security threats. Court 28 Sept sentenced prominent Sunni cleric Ahmed al-Assir to death for his role in clashes between soldiers and his supporters in Sidon in 2013.

Middle East & North Africa

Lebanon

Army 19 Aug launched offensive against Islamic State (ISIS) militants in control of pocket straddling Syrian-Lebanese border. Syrian army and Hizbollah same day said they had begun joint operation against same ISIS group from Syrian side of border. Lebanese army said its operation not in coordination with Syria or Hizbollah. ISIS 27 Aug agreed ceasefire with army, and same day agreed separate ceasefire with Hizbollah and Syrian army; ISIS fighters and their families 28 Aug began withdrawal from border region to eastern Syria, however U.S. airstrikes in Syria 30 Aug blocked convoy before it reached ISIS-held territory (see Syria). Following ceasefire deal late July between Lebanese army, Hizbollah and Salafi-jihadist group Fath al-Sham, transfer of some 9,000 people, including Fath al-Sham militants and Syrian refugees, from Jroud Arsal in north east to Syria’s Idlib province completed early Aug; Hizbollah and Fath al-Sham also exchanged prisoners. Under similar deal some 300 fighters from smaller local faction Saraya Ahl al-Sham and their families 14 Aug began withdrawal from pocket near Syrian border reportedly to Syria. UN and rights groups voiced concerns that repatriations of refugees were not consensual nor met international legal standards. Army 7 Aug shelled ISIS positions in Syria after group reportedly fired seven rockets from Syria into Lebanon near al-Qaa in north east, causing no casualties. Clashes between Palestinian security forces and Islamist militants in Aïn el-Helweh Palestinian refugee camp in south 17-23 Aug killed at least five.

Middle East & North Africa

Lebanon

Hizbollah and Syrian army 21 July launched coordinated operations to dislodge militants linked to Salafi-jihadist groups Fath al-Sham and Islamic State (ISIS) from around Arsal in north east and near Fleita in Syria near shared border. Lebanese troops, reportedly not participating in offensive but defending Arsal, clashed with militants attempting to flee to Arsal 21 July. Hizbollah and Fath al-Sham agreed ceasefire 27 July under which latter’s members and their families will reportedly go to rebel-held areas of Idlib province in NE Syria in exchange for Fath al-Sham releasing eight Hizbollah members; transfer of 9,000 people including militants and their families reportedly began 31 July. Lebanese army cracked down on Syrian refugees detaining more than 350, four died in custody 30 June-4 July.

Middle East & North Africa

Lebanon

After clashes late May between Islamic State (ISIS) and rival jihadist group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in outskirts of Arsal city in NE near border with Syria, army intensified operations against both groups early June, killing several dozen militants. Five suicide bombers attacked soldiers as they searched for suspected militants in two Syrian refugee camps in Arsal area 30 June, killing one refugee girl and wounding seven soldiers; sixth militant threw hand grenade at patrol. After political disagreements over electoral system delayed parliamentary elections that were due in 2008 and 2014, parliament 16 June reached agreement and passed new electoral law, but postponed vote to May 2018.

Middle East & North Africa

Lebanon

Parliament failed to meet 15 May deadline set by President Aoun in April to reach agreement on new electoral law ahead of 20 June expiration of MPs’ mandate, raising prospect of legislative void. Following recent rise in tensions between Hizbollah and Israel, Hizbollah 11 May said any conflict with Israel could take place “inside Occupied Palestinian Territories”. Hizbollah 11 May said it had secured eastern border with Syria and begun dismantling its military positions in area so that Lebanese army would patrol it alone.

Middle East & North Africa

Lebanon

Clashes in Aïn el-Helweh Palestinian refugee camp in south erupted again 7 April when jihadist group led by Bilal Badr tried to prevent Palestinian joint security force deploying across camp and into Badr’s stronghold al-Tiri neighbourhood and launched counteroffensive against Fatah militants; at least ten killed, most militants; ceasefire reached 12 April as Badr relocated to different area of camp under protection of jihadist group Fatah al-Islam. President Aoun 12 April, day before parliament intended to extend its mandate for another year for third time, suspended parliamentary session for one month to allow time for MPs to reach agreement on electoral reform.

Middle East & North Africa

Lebanon

Amid escalating war of words between Hizbollah and Israel, Israeli army chief 19 March warned that Israel would target Lebanese state institutions in any war with Hizbollah; 21 March denied Israel was involved in killing Hizbollah commander Mustafa Badreddine in Syria in 2016, as previously reported in Lebanese media, and accused Hizbollah of ordering killing, denied by Hizbollah. Parliament speaker 23 March said Israeli bill claiming 860km2 contested maritime zone was “new attack on Lebanon’s sovereignty”. Several thousand protested in Beirut 19 March against proposed tax hikes intended to fund increase in public sector wages amid economic slowdown, and denouncing govt corruption. Fatah militants clashed with hard-line Islamists in Aïn el-Helweh Palestinian refugee camp in south late Feb and 23 March when two people were reported killed.

Middle East & North Africa

Lebanon

Hizbollah and Israel exchanged threats mid-month: Hizbollah 16 Feb threatened to target Dimona nuclear reactor in Negev desert, Israel warned it would “hit all of Lebanon” in response to any such attack; President Aoun 18 Feb cautioned Israel’s actions would be met with appropriate response, Hizbollah 20 Feb reportedly said there would be no “red lines” in future confrontations. PM Hariri expressed disagreement after Aoun 12 Feb issued controversial statement characterising Hizbollah’s weaponry as complementary to army’s and needed to counter Israel; Hariri called weaponry illegitimate. Aoun met with Egyptian President Sisi in Cairo 13 Feb; leaders agreed to bolster anti-terrorism cooperation. U.S. 15 Feb issued travel advisory for its citizens to avoid Lebanon due to “threats of terrorism, armed clashes, kidnapping, and outbreaks of violence”. Authorities 10 Feb said they would waive $200 annual residency fee for Syrian refugees registered with UNHCR.

Subscribe to Crisis Group’s Email Updates

Receive the best source of conflict analysis right in your inbox.