CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Continued diplomacy overshadowed by deadliest attack since mid-1980s, as car bomb south of capital 27 Sept killed 17, wounded dozens; official news agency 30 Sept said suspected Islamist suicide bomber. French President Sarkozy in Damascus visit 3-4 Sept; discussed Syrian role in addressing Iranian nuclear issue, potential direct peace talks with Israel. Sarkozy, President Bashar al-Assad met with leaders of Turkey, Qatar at 4 Sept summit; Assad said awaiting Israeli response to 6-point outline regarding withdrawal from Golan Heights. Fifth round Turkey-mediated indirect talks delayed at Israel’s request, amid leadership changes there (see Israel/ OPT). Preliminary results of IAEA probe said to contradict allegation of nuclear reactor at Al Kibar site.
President Bashar al-Assad continued to expand diplomatic efforts. In Tehran 2 Aug, Assad addressed Iranian nuclear program, following July promise to French President Sarkozy to facilitate, but also reaffirmed strong ties between countries. In Turkey 5 Aug, discussed Turkish-mediated indirect talks with Israel. Talks continued in Aug, but Syrian FM 25 Aug said progress insufficient to open direct negotiations. In 13-14 Aug Damascus visit, Lebanese President Michel Suleiman and Assad agreed to establish diplomatic relations (see Lebanon). Russian FM Lavrov 21 Aug said prepared to sell arms to Syria, during Assad visit; Russian diplomat 27 Aug said navy to use Syrian ports more frequently. Top army officer Brig. Gen. Muhammad Suleiman, close associate of Assad, assassinated 1 Aug by unknown assailant.
President Assad attended 13 July summit in Paris for new Union for Mediterranean, meeting with Lebanese President Suleiman (see Lebanon). Israeli PM Olmert also attended, though no discussion with Assad. Turkish- mediated indirect talks between Israel and Syria continued, more due Aug; Assad said direct negotiations possible but unlikely before new U.S. president takes office. 30 July Olmert announcement will resign as PM Sept raised doubts about progress.
Israeli and Syrian negotiators completed second round Turkish-mediated talks 16 June; scheduled 2 more for July. Israel said talks “serious, positive and constructive”. France 15 June invited President Assad to 13 July Paris summit of new European-Mediterranean union; Israeli PM Olmert also due to attend. Damascus 3 June agreed to UN IAEA inspection of Al Kibar alleged nuclear site, destroyed in 6 Sept Israeli airstrike; denied access to 3 other sites. Inspectors completed 4-day visit 25 June, said “good start” but more investigations needed.
Israel and Syria 21 May confirmed indirect negotiations through Turkish mediation; talks underway. Syrian FM Walid Muallem repeated claim, first made Apr by Damascus, Israel had agreed to withdraw from Golan to 1967 armistice line; Israel denies, but PM Olmert spokesperson said talks recently gained momentum. Weakness of Olmert, facing further corruption allegations (see Israel/OPT), seen as potential obstacle to success. President Assad 27 May said Damascus would not abandon relations with Tehran as condition of talks. U.S. said did not oppose talks, but prefers Israeli-Palestinian track first. French President Sarkozy telephoned President Assad 29 May – first contact since Dec decision to halt contact over alleged obstruction regarding Lebanon. U.S. 29 May pressed IAEA to expand inspections, currently under negotiation with Damascus, into alleged nuclear program; 28 May said equipment for ballistic missile testing bound for Syria interdicted Feb 2007.
Signs of possible resumption of Syrian-Israeli talks, but tensions with U.S. continue. Both President Assad and Israeli PM Olmert publicly acknowledged messages exchanged. Turkish PM Erdogan stepped up behind-scenes efforts in Damascus visit 26 Apr; said talks to begin at low level. Former U.S. President Carter, in Damascus for Hamas talks (see Israel/OPT), said 21 Apr Assad believes only few issues remain but U.S. discouraging Israel from proceeding. Tensions high at border with 5-day Israeli civil defence drill, Syrian manoeuvres in response. U.S. intelligence officials 24 Apr released information accusing Syria of building nuclear reactor with North Korean assistance at site destroyed in 6 Sept Israeli airstrike; Damascus denied. IAEA to investigate claims; criticised U.S. delay in disclosure.
29-30 March Arab League summit in Damascus reflected growing regional rift. Saudi, U.S. pressure increased in lead-up: Riyadh recalled ambassador to Damascus; urged citizens to leave Lebanon after U.S. deployed navy off coast end Feb. Egypt, Saudia Arabia, Jordan sent only low-level delegations to summit; Lebanon boycotted; no breakthroughs. Israeli PM Olmert announced, again, 17 March prepared to restart peace talks if Damascus ends support for Hizbollah, Palestinian militant groups; Syrian FM said ready to talk, but did not mention conditions. Security forces fired on Kurds during new year celebrations 20 March in north eastern city Qamishli, killing 3.
Hizbollah commander Imad Mughniyeh, in hiding for years, assassinated in Damascus car bomb 12 Feb. Syria condemned killing, announced investigation; Iran, Hizbollah blamed Israel – regional tensions escalated. U.S. welcomed news of death; expanded financial sanctions against senior Syrian officials and associates; again accused Damascus of undermining efforts in Lebanon and Iraq. German Chancellor Merkel called on Syria 22 Feb to play “constructive part” in Lebanon crisis; expressed support for Arab League efforts ahead of March summit in Damascus. Egyptian President Mubarak 26 Feb echoed criticism of Syria’s role in Lebanon. EU agreed 17 Feb additional $13.2m to Syria (over $55m total) to fund health aid for some 1.5m Iraqi refugees in country.
FM Walid al-Moallem said 2 Jan Syria “to stop cooperation” with France to solve Lebanese crisis. Move came in response to French year-end decision to halt contact over alleged obstruction. Arab League SG Amre Moussa said 19 Jan talks in Damascus “totally positive” but no breakthrough. Iraqi Red Crescent Organization reported some 46,000 of estimated 1.5m Iraqi refugees in Syria had returned home in last 3.5 months of 2007.
Protracted Lebanese crisis (see Lebanon) led French President Sarkozy and U.S. President Bush to express extreme frustration with Damascus. France vowed 30 December to halt contact until it received proof Syria not obstructing. Criticism followed apparent opening in U.S.-Syria relations with Syrian participation in November Annapolis meeting. Syrian state- run media called 31 December for U.S. to start direct dialogue with Damascus following visit of U.S. Senator Arlen Specter. President Assad said 20 December Damascus received letter in 2001 purportedly from Pakistani scientist Khan offering nuclear technology; did not respond. Syrian authorities arrested at least 7 activists in month following opposition group meeting; condemned by U.S., rights groups. 1,000-strong UN peacekeeping force along Israeli-Syrian border extended to June 2008.
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