Pro-govt forces continued offensive against rebel-held areas of Idlib province in north west causing significant civilian suffering but failed to take new ground, and in west Israeli air raids hit Iranian targets. In north west, jihadist coalition Hei’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) 11 July took al-Hamamiyat town in northern Hama province, but pro-govt forces same day repelled rebels’ advance, and 28 July recaptured Jubain and Tal Malah. Hizbollah fighters from Lebanon 11 July reportedly joined pro-govt offensive in north west for first time, despite group’s leader Hassan Nasrallah same day announcing that it was reducing its presence in Syria. Pro-govt and Russian offensive reportedly caused at least 662 civilian deaths and damaged 37 medical facilities since late April, including hospitals known to Russia through UN’s de-confliction mechanisms. Russian and govt airstrikes 16-26 July killed at least 100 civilians in Maarat al-Numan, Khan Shaykhun and Ariha, in Idlib province; NGO Save the Children 24 July reported 33 children killed 24 June-24 July. In Turkish-controlled Afrin, Aleppo province, suspected fighters of Kurdish People’s Protection Units 11 July killed five combatants and eight civilians in car bomb attack, including three children. Media outlet Foreign Policy 9 July reported that UK and France had agreed to increase their military presence in north east by 10% and 15% respectively to compensate for ongoing U.S. drawdown. In Deir al-Zour province in east, U.S. and French special representatives to Syria 10 July met Arab council to discuss governance and devolving authority from Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces to local Arab leaders. U.S. special envoy James Jeffrey 23 July met Turkish officials to discuss creation of safe zone on Syria-Turkey border. Islamic State (ISIS) 11-12 July claimed bombings in al-Hasakah and Qamishli cities, with no deaths reported. In west, Israeli warplanes 30 June-1 July attacked govt and Iranian targets in Damascus and Homs, killing sixteen, including three children and ten Iranian and Hizbollah fighters.

Fighting continued in Idlib in north west between pro-govt forces and jihadist and other opposition groups with high civilian toll; suspected Islamic State (ISIS) and govt kept up arson campaign in opposition-held areas in east; and Israel continued airstrikes in west. In north west, pro-govt forces and Russia maintained shelling and airstrikes on opposition areas, but with Turkey stepping up support, opposition managed to hold off offensive and retake some territories. Turkish-backed rebels National Liberation Front (NLF) and jihadist coalition Hei’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), along with other opposition factions, 6 June launched counteroffensive against pro-govt forces, pushing south toward Hama province. Russia and Turkey 12 June brokered ceasefire between govt and opposition forces in Idlib, but fighting continued. In Idlib province, pro-govt forces 13 June attacked Turkish observation post, injuring three soldiers; 27 June attacked Turkish observation post killing soldier. In Hama province, heavy clashes 17-20 June left around 135 rebel and pro-govt fighters dead. UN 18 June reported over 230 civilians killed since early May. In north east, U.S. 4 June said Kurdish-led rebels Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Turkey had agreed in principle that SDF core Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) would withdraw from future safe zone. In east, fires continued to destroy crops around Manbij city and in Deir al-Zour and Raqqa provinces: SDF 1 June accused ISIS and govt of using arson against it. ISIS 5 June claimed bombing in Raqqa; 17 June claimed suicide bomber’s failed attempt to attack Kurdish internal security HQ in Qamishli; 23 June ambushed pro-govt militias in Al-Mayadin desert. In south west, in response to artillery fire, Israeli warplanes 1-2 June killed ten pro-govt forces in Golan Heights; same day killed five govt soldiers in Tiyas air base near Homs, allegedly targeting Iranian facility. State media 12 June claimed govt forces had shot down Israeli missiles near Golan Heights; 30 June reported Israeli strikes in Damascus and Homs, allegedly killing four civilians.

Pro-govt forces intensified bombing in Idlib province in north west. Syrian and Russian warplanes ramped up bombardment of Idlib province largely controlled by jihadist coalition Hei’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS); UN confirmed over 160 people killed, while Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported at least 313 civilians killed 30 April-31 May. Pro-govt forces 6-9 May seized strategic towns of Tal Othman, Kafr Nabudah and Qalaat al-Madiq; offensive seemingly aimed at recapturing strategic highways that cross Idlib. UN 17 May reported airstrikes on civilian targets throughout Idlib, damaging hospitals and schools; govt forces allegedly used chlorine gas 19 May. HTS retaliated: 2-19 May launched rocket attacks on Russian Hmeimim base near Latakia city; 21 May recaptured Kafr Nabudah before withdrawing again amid govt counter-offensive 26 May. Govt offensive on Idlib strained Russian-Turkish Dec de-escalation agreement: Turkish President Erdoğan in phone call with Russian President Putin 13 May accused Damascus of sabotaging deal; Russian and Turkish defence ministers 14 May met to discuss de-escalation measures; Russia 19 May announced unilateral ceasefire, but Russian airstrikes in Kafranbel same day killed ten. In east, amid ongoing Islamic State (ISIS) insurgency, Arab tribes continued protests – launched late April – against Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which took back territory from ISIS, citing poor service provision, forced conscriptions, arbitrary detentions, as well as SDF’s oil shipments to govt-controlled territories; protests petered out by end month. In south, pro-govt media 17-18 May reported govt forces had allegedly intercepted Israeli missiles from Golan Heights, targeting Iranian positions near capital; govt 27 May said Israel carried out attack in Quneitra in retaliation to anti-aircraft fire on Israeli warplane same day. 

Govt continued bombardment of Idlib in north west, Islamic State (ISIS) stepped up attacks in east, while negotiations on fate of north east after U.S. withdrawal remained stalled. In north west, govt continued bombing in southern Idlib province and rebels continued to retaliate against pro-govt forces. In Idlib province, govt shelling 3-4 April killed around 29 civilians; 18 April killed ten, including three children. Jihadist coalition Hei’at Tahrir al-Sham killed at least twelve pro-govt fighters near Aleppo city 21 April. Russia and Turkey 9 April announced start of joint patrols across demilitarised strip around de-escalation zone. Iran, Russia and Turkey held new round of talks in Nursultan, renamed capital of Kazakhstan (formerly Astana) 25-26 April, no significant outcome. In east, ISIS stepped up low-level insurgency: in Raqqa, twin bombing killed at least eight people 9 April; militants 18-19 April launched separate attacks in Homs and Deir al-Zour provinces, killing at least 35 pro-govt fighters; ISIS killed around 60 local SDF fighters in attacks throughout April. In north east, Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) sought to strengthen control while U.S. retained presence on ground. U.S. remained vague on timing and extent of troop withdrawal. U.S. Special Envoy James Jeffrey visited region mid-April to advance negotiations between U.S. and Turkey on one hand and YPG and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) on other toward creation of safe zone along Turkish border in which local Arab and Kurdish forces would replace YPG. U.S. Sec State Pompeo 3 April warned of “devastating” results if Turkey took unilateral action against SDF. Facing fuel shortages, govt 15 April reduced petrol rations; PM Imad Khamis held U.S. and Egypt responsible for blocking passage of Iranian oil tankers through Suez Canal. Israel continued attacks on pro-govt infrastructure: Syrian state media 13 April reported airstrikes and damage to buildings in Hama governorate.

Turkey began patrols in Idlib in north west to help contain violence even as govt and Russia upped bombing there; Kurdish-led forces took Islamic State’s (ISIS) last holdout in east; and anti-govt protests erupted in Daraa in south. In north west, govt and Russian airstrikes 13-23 March killed 35 civilians and damaged Idlib prison, enabling dozens of ISIS and pro-govt prisoners to escape. Russian warplanes 10 March struck “White Helmets” first responders, killing two. Jihadist coalition Hei’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other militants attacked govt forces in areas surrounding de-escalation zone. Turkey-backed rebels 9 March attacked govt positions in Hama governorate. Male suicide bomber 1 March killed seven civilians in Idlib city, prompting HTS to execute ten detained alleged ISIS members. Turkey 8 and 15 March launched first two patrols in demilitarised strip around de-escalation zone. Israel 27 March carried out airstrike near Aleppo, reportedly targeting Iranian weapons depot, killing several Iraqi and Iranian fighters. Regarding north east, U.S. 29 March said it would withdraw half of its 2,000 troops by early May, with further withdrawals dependent on developments. Turkish President Erdoğan 6 March reiterated demand for Turkish-controlled 30km-wide safe zone along Turkish border, refusing compromise with Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG). Syrian govt 18 March insisted on full U.S. withdrawal and refused to concede any autonomy to YPG-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). In east, SDF renewed assault on ISIS in Baghouz near Iraqi border; 23 March claimed “total elimination” of ISIS caliphate in Syria. In south, residents of Daraa 10 March protested against govt decision to erect statue of former President Hafez al-Assad, and suspected rebel sleeper cells continued attacks on pro-govt forces. U.S. President Trump 25 March signed decree recognising Israeli sovereignty over Golan Heights, Syrian territories which Israel occupied in 1967, overturning decades of U.S. policy and drawing global condemnation; Syria called move “blatant attack” on its territorial integrity, UN said “status of Golan has not changed”.

Govt forces continued to bomb jihadist-held Idlib in north west, U.S. announced 400 troops would remain in north east, and U.S.-backed Kurdish forces launched push to take Islamic State’s (ISIS) last stronghold in east. In north west, jihadist group Hei’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and al-Qaeda loyalist splinter Hurras al-Din 10 Feb reached new agreement after public spat. Leadership of HTS-linked civilian administration Salvation Govt took part in opposition conference in Bab al-Hawa on Syria-Turkey border 10 Feb; closing statement called for election of Shura council to form new civilian administration to replace Salvation Govt and for creation of military council including all Idlib’s armed factions. Govt forces 15-28 Feb shelled opposition areas in Idlib, killing at least 40 civilians. Unclaimed bombings next to Salvation Govt offices in Idlib 18 Feb killed 24 people. Russian President Putin hosted summit on Syria with Turkish and Iranian counterparts in Sochi 14 Feb; after summit, Russia said military operations against HTS in Idlib were inevitable. U.S. military 11 Feb said troop withdrawal from north east could begin in weeks. President Assad 17 Feb rejected Kurdish autonomy in north east. Russia 18 Feb insisted Turkey needed Syrian govt’s approval for military action against Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), backbone of Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). U.S. 21 Feb said France and UK refused U.S. request to deploy coalition “observer force”. U.S. President Trump 22 Feb said 400 U.S. troops would remain in Syria as residual peacekeeping force to set up safe zone. Following Trump’s announcement, Turkish President Erdoğan 23 Feb evoked 1998 Syria-Turkey Adana agreement which apparently allows Turkey to conduct cross-border antiterrorist operations up to 5km into Syria, while stressing proposed safe zone in north east should be under Turkish control. In east, SDF 9 Feb launched push against ISIS’s last holdout in Baghouz area near Iraqi border; besieged fighters 20 Feb began allowing civilian evacuation. In south west, Israeli tank 11 Feb fired at alleged Hizbollah observation posts in Quneitra governorate, despite Russia’s 8 Feb warnings against Israeli attacks in Syria.

Jihadists took control of Idlib in north west straining Russia-Turkey deal holding off govt assault on opposition stronghold, rise in Israeli airstrikes against Iranian and Iran-allied targets in south west provoked retaliation, and U.S. sought assurances from Turkey it would not attack Kurdish fighters in north east when U.S. troops pull out. In Idlib in north west, clashes between jihadist alliance Hei’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and rival rebel faction Nour al-Din al-Zinki erupted 1 Jan, with Turkish-backed rebel groups Ahrar al-Sham and Suqour al-Sham joining against HTS. HTS defeated Nour al-Din al-Zinki by 4 Jan and imposed civilian Salvation Govt, which it controls, in captured areas. HTS 10 Jan reached settlement with Ahrar al-Sham and Suqour al-Sham, which conceded HTS authority. Turkish President Erdoğan and Russian President Putin in Moscow 23 Jan agreed on closer military cooperation in Idlib, but Putin reaffirmed Russia’s support for dialogue between Damascus and Kurds. In response to what govt called “terrorist violations” of truce in southern Idlib, army 29 Jan shelled Maarat al-Numan killing at least eleven civilians. Tensions rose in south: Israel carried out airstrikes against installations it said Iran and pro-Iranian militias were using south of Damascus 25 Dec and 11 and 20 Jan. In apparent retaliation, missile fired allegedly by Iranian forces 20 Jan at Israeli-controlled Golan Heights. Israel responded with another airstrike 21 Jan targeting Iranian Al-Quds Force, reportedly killing twelve. Following President Trump’s announcement in Dec that U.S. troops would withdraw, U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton 6 Jan conditioned withdrawal on Turkey guaranteeing it would not attack “Kurdish fighters”; Turkey condemned remarks. Turkey 13 Jan deployed tanks and armoured vehicles to districts on border with Syria. After Trump 13 Jan tweeted that U.S. “will devastate Turkey economically if they hit the Kurds”, he and Erdoğan 14 Jan had phone call on possible twenty-mile-wide “safe zone” in north east along Turkish border. Syrian Kurds and Syrian govt rejected Turkish control over potential “safe zone”. Turkey reportedly sought Russian permission to use Syrian airspace for possible operation in north east against Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) – backbone of Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Russian FM Lavrov 16 Jan said northern territories should return to Syrian govt control. Kurds continued to explore political settlement with Syrian govt including integration of YPG into Syrian armed forces. Suicide attack claimed by Islamic State (ISIS) in Manbij 16 Jan killed sixteen, including four U.S. personnel. Another suicide attack targeting U.S. troops and Syrian partners in Hassakeh 21 Jan caused no casualties.

U.S. President Trump 19 Dec announced all 2,000 U.S. troops would withdraw from Syria, citing defeat of Islamic State (ISIS) and need to save U.S. from “spending precious lives and trillions of dollars”. Announcement contradicted most of Trump’s senior aides and U.S. Syria strategy as formulated in recent weeks. Russian President Putin 20 Dec applauded decision, while Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) – of which Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) forms military backbone – denounced withdrawal, saying it will impact negatively campaign against terrorism. Trump 23 Dec signed executive order and same day tweeted that withdrawal would be “slow and highly coordinated”. Trump 31 Dec confirmed troops would be brought home slowly “while at the same time fighting [ISIS] remnants”. Before U.S. announcement, Turkish President Erdoğan 12 Dec said Turkey would launch offensive against YPG east of Euphrates River “within days” (see Turkey); Turkish-backed Syrian civilian and armed opposition voiced support for Turkish intervention. U.S. voiced “grave concern” over potential military incursion and risks for U.S. personnel.Erdoğan 17 Dec said 15 Dec phone conversation with Trump about possible incursion was positive, but that Turkish forces could still intervene “at any moment”. Syrian Observatory for Human Rights 23 Dec reported Turkish military build-up at front line of SDF-controlled town of Manbij; Syria’s military 28 Dec entered Manbij area amid calls from YPG for help against threat of attack by Turkey. In north west, intermittent clashes and bombing continued on periphery of Idlib de-escalation zone, but Sept Russia-Turkey agreement covering area held. Following 24 Nov gas attack on Aleppo and Syrian army and Russian retaliatory airstrikes in de-escalation zone next day, U.S. State Department 7 Dec disputed Russian and Syrian govt claims that rebels launched chemical attack, saying it had “credible information that pro-regime forces likely used tear gas against civilians” in Aleppo. In south, after three months of fighting, anti-Islamic State (ISIS) coalition 5 Dec captured last remaining ISIS urban stronghold around Hajin. Some 2,500 ISIS fighters are thought to have withdrawn into desert further east toward Iraqi border. Following 28-29 Nov Astana talks at which parties failed to reach compromise on constitution drafting committee, foreign ministers of Iran, Russia and Turkey 18 Dec announced still-unformed constitutional committee would convene early 2019.

Russia and Turkey maintained that their Sept agreement to stave off govt offensive on rebel-held Idlib in north west continued to hold despite tit-for-tat attacks between govt-aligned forces and rebels. Notably, govt forces 9 Nov bombed Jarjanaz, killing eight residents and two dozen fighters from rebel faction Jaish al-Izzah. Jihadist alliance Hei’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and Turkish-backed National Liberation Front allegedly carried strikes on Syrian military positions in retaliation for govt bombings. Rebel group Wa-Harrid al-Mumineen (which includes al-Qaeda loyalist HTS splinter Hurras al-Din and other jihadist hardliners) continued to claim small-scale attacks on govt positions in Lattakia, Hama and southern Aleppo countryside. Gas attack on Aleppo 24 Nov injured about 100 people; Syrian army and Russia blaming rebels 25 Nov retaliated with airstrikes in buffer zone, rebels denied responsibility. Russian officials expressed satisfaction with Turkish efforts to implement deal but increasingly highlighted violations of ceasefire inside Idlib zone. In south, authorities arrested increasing numbers of former rebels, including those acquitted of any crimes by “settlement” procedures; former rebels and families appealed to Russian military police to secure rebels’ release. Also in south, Russian-supported govt-aligned forces, that included reconciled rebel fighters, by 17 Nov drove hundreds of Islamic State (ISIS) fighters further into desert east of Sweida. In rebel-held north east, Turkey 1 Nov shelled Kurdish-controlled towns of Kobani and Tell Abyad; in response, opposition Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) – of which Kurdish YPG forms military backbone – suspended operations against ISIS in its remaining strongholds around Hajin in lower Euphrates valley. Month saw spate of unclaimed killings of SDF members; ISIS 3 Nov claimed assassination of Sheikh Bashir Faisal al-Huwaidi, Arab member of Raqqa governing council and SDF ally, but responsibility unclear. After “intensive diplomatic efforts” by U.S.-led coalition, SDF 11 Nov resumed offensive against ISIS. ISIS counterattack 23-27 Nov killed 92 SDF members, heaviest loss since SDF’s 2015 creation. In new round of talks in Kazakh capital Astana 28 Nov, Russia, Turkey and Iran failed to reach agreement on establishment of constitutional committee. Jordanian parliamentary delegation 19 Nov visited Syrian President Assad for first time since 2011 to discuss cooperation in trade, tourism and transport; including reopening of Ramtha-Daraa border, shut for seven years.

Parties implemented Russia-Turkey deal signed in Sept to avert offensive by pro-govt forces on rebel-held Idlib province in north west well enough to keep both sides committed. In partial fulfilment of Turkey’s obligations under deal, Turkey removed some of rebels’ heavy weapons from demilitarised zone by 10 Oct and jihadist groups either withdrew from zone or adopted lower profile by 15 Oct. Jihadist alliance Hei’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) 14 Oct issued statement implicitly consenting to deal’s terms, but refusing to disarm or give up armed struggle. In apparent attempt to spoil agreement, rebel group Wa-Harrid al-Mumineen (And Spur on the Believers) launched mortars at Syrian army base in Ghab Plain, Hama province 13 Oct. Russian President Putin 18 Oct said implementation was incomplete, but expressed satisfaction with Turkish efforts to fulfil commitments. Leaders of Turkey, Russia, Germany and France 27 Oct held summit in Istanbul that welcomed agreement, emphasised need for durable ceasefire, and reiterated commitment to political process. Russia 2 Oct delivered first part of S-300 air defence system to Syria after Syrian anti-aircraft system accidentally downed Russian military aircraft while attempting to hit four Israeli jets in Sept. Syria and Jordan reopened Nassib border crossing and UN, Syria and Israel reopened crossing from Syria into Israeli-occupied Golan Heights near town of Quneitra 15 Oct, both for first time since they were shut in 2015; same day in Damascus, FM Muallem discussed with Iraqi FM “speeding up” reopening of crossings on Syria-Iraq border. Following militant attack on military parade in Iranian city of Ahvaz late Sept, Iranian army 1 Oct carried out ballistic missile and drone strikes against reported Islamic State (ISIS) targets near al-Bukamal in east Syria. UN envoy Staffan de Mistura 17 Oct said he would leave post in Nov for personal reasons after four years in role; UN Sec-Gen Guterres 30 Oct told Security Council he intended to appoint Norwegian diplomat Geir Pedersen.