CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
U.S. and Russia 11 Nov announced details of ceasefire in south west, first agreed between them and Jordan 7 July, and reiterated commitment to resolving conflict through UN-led Geneva process. Under deal, non-jihadist opposition to maintain control of currently held areas and work with U.S. and Jordan to expel foreign fighters; Russia to work with regime to end presence of non-Syrian, Iran-backed forces in 5km-wide belt along Jordanian border and opposition-held areas. Russia 16 Nov vetoed UN Security Council resolution to extend mandate of UN investigative mechanism into use of chemical weapons, which late Oct found Syrian regime responsible for gas attack in April; mandate expired next day. In Deir el-Zour province in east, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and govt-aligned forces continued race to seize territory from Islamic State (ISIS) on opposite sides of Euphrates River, mostly meeting little resistance: pro-regime forces 20 Nov completed capture from ISIS of al-Bukamal on border with Iraq, after offensive reportedly coordinated with Iraqi govt forces on Iraqi side. In capital Damascus, rebel offensive by groups not party to Eastern Ghouta de-escalation deal made initial gains against pro-regime forces mid-Nov, and spurred major increase in regime strikes against rebel-held areas. In Idlib province in north west, Islamist group Hei’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) early Nov facilitated formation of “salvation govt”, to which it delegated administration of areas it controls. Russian airstrikes increased in Idlib as govt-aligned forces pushed against rebel positions from east and south. Islamist group Noureddine al-Zenki 10 Nov declared “defensive war” against HTS; truce mediated between sides mid-Nov. Russian President Putin met Assad in Sochi, Russia, 20 Nov. Putin hosted Iranian President Rouhani and Turkish President Erdoğan at summit on Syrian conflict in Sochi 22 Nov; presidents jointly invited Syrian govt and moderate opposition to attend future congress in Sochi, without specifying date. Ahead of eighth round of UN-backed Geneva talks, opposition appointed new chief negotiator during summit in Saudi capital, Riyadh 24 Nov; talks began 28 Nov amid low expectations.
Turkish forces deployed in north west in effort to calm fighting, as Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) claimed to have taken full control of Raqqa from Islamic State (ISIS) and continued race with regime forces to capture more territory in east. In north west, Islamist group Hei’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launched offensive late-Sept to retake regime-held areas in Hama province; made few gains but captured economically significant Abu Dali village 7-8 Oct. As part of deal negotiated between Turkey, Russia and Iran in Kazakh capital, Astana 15 Sept, Turkish forces mid-Oct entered Idlib province in north west to establish de-escalation zone to end fighting between rebel and pro-regime forces. Govt 14 Oct claimed Turkish troop deployments violated terms of Astana deal and demanded they pull out. In north east, U.S.-backed SDF led by Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) 20 Oct said they had taken full control of Raqqa, ISIS’s de facto capital, ending four-month offensive. Local civilian Raqqa Civil Council 14 Oct announced deal with ISIS to allow Syrian and foreign militants to leave Raqqa with civilians. U.S. coalition 15 Oct said it opposed letting go foreign ISIS fighters, but local official same day said some foreign militants had left. In Deir el-Zour province in east, pro-regime and SDF forces continued race to take territory from ISIS. Pro-regime forces captured al-Mayadeen mid-Oct on west bank of Euphrates River meeting little resistance. SDF forces 22 Oct captured nearby al-Omar oil field, country’s largest, on east bank. UN 31 Oct said aid was delivered to Damascus suburb Eastern Ghouta for first time in over a year; next day govt shelling in area reportedly killed ten people, including five children.
In east, regime forces and allies broke Islamic State’s (ISIS) nearly three-year siege on Deir el-Zour city 5 Sept, gained ground in city’s west and crossed Euphrates River to eastern part. East of city U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) led by Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) advanced south against ISIS capturing Conoco gas field late month; SDF 24 Sept appointed 100 tribal figures to elect council to govern Deir el-Zour province. Tensions heightened between Russia-backed regime forces and U.S.-backed SDF: Russia 16 Sept reportedly bombed SDF in east and 21 Sept accused SDF of shelling Syrian army and threatened to retaliate, SDF accused Russia of bombing its positions 25 Sept. In north east, SDF made slow progress in capturing Raqqa from ISIS; 20 Sept said it had taken 80% of city. In north west, Islamist rebels including Tahrir al-Sham 19 Sept attacked regime-held areas near Hama provoking regime and Russian airstrikes on rebel-held areas in Hama and Idlib provinces, reportedly including on medical facilities. In Jobar district, eastern Damascus and environs, fighting continued between regime forces and Failaq al-Rahman rebels despite Aug ceasefire, while govt’s ceasefire with Jaish al-Islam rebels in neighbouring Eastern Ghouta largely held. Ceasefire in south west agreed in July among Russia, U.S. and Jordan largely held. Israeli jets reportedly bombed research centre linked to govt chemical weapons program near Masyaf in north west 7 Sept. Russia, Iran and Turkey in sixth round of talks in Kazakh capital, Astana 14-15 Sept agreed to deploy observers along edges of “de-escalation zone” in north west including Idlib province and parts of adjacent provinces; Tahrir al-Sham rejected deal. Communal elections held 22 Sept in Democratic Federation of Northern Syria, Kurdish-led autonomous area in north. Amid rising tensions in Deir el-Zour province and following threats against SDF mid-Sept by senior govt official, FM 26 Sept said govt open to discussing Kurdish autonomy.
Fighting continued early Aug between regime forces and rebels in rebel-held Damascus suburb Eastern Ghouta despite 22 July ceasefire deal. Russia 18 Aug brokered ceasefire between regime and Islamist rebel group Failaq al-Rahman of Free Syrian Army (FSA) coalition in Jobar district, eastern Damascus, and nearby Ain Tarma town; next day regime bombed areas covered by ceasefire. In west, fighting in Hama province between govt and multiple rebel factions and Islamic State (ISIS) escalated. Govt and rebels agreed in Cairo to establish “de-escalation zone” north of govt-held Homs to take effect 3 Aug; monitors reported repeated ceasefire violations by both sides. Army in coordination with Hizbollah 19 Aug launched offensive in Qalamun region, western Rif Dimashq province against ISIS militants controlling territory straddling Syria-Lebanon border; Lebanese army same day launched offensive in Lebanon against same group. Army and Hizbollah 27 Aug agreed ceasefire with ISIS, under which ISIS fighters to be transferred to east; U.S. airstrikes 30 Aug blocked convoy transferring fighters before it reached ISIS-held territory. Following ceasefire deal late July between Lebanese army, Hizbollah and Salafi-jihadist group Fath al-Sham, transfer of some 9,000 people, including Fath al-Sham militants and Syrian refugees, from Jroud Arsal in north east Lebanon to Syria’s Idlib province completed early Aug; Hizbollah and Fath al-Sham also exchanged prisoners. Under similar deal some 300 fighters from smaller local faction Saraya Ahl al-Sham and their families 14 Aug began withdrawal from area in Lebanon near border to Syria. In north east, Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) and allies in Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) coalition continued slow progress in retaking Raqqa from ISIS. U.S.-led coalition’s bombing in city continued to cause civilian casualties; UN 24 Aug called for pause to allow civilians to escape. Army and allied militias 5 Aug completed capture from ISIS of al-Sukhna in north west of Homs province, last major town held by ISIS in province, and mid-Aug continued advance eastwards toward ISIS-held territory in Deir el-Zour province. Talks between Turkey, Iran and Russia in Kazakhstan, scheduled for late Aug, postponed until mid-Sept.
In fifth round of talks in Kazakh capital Astana 4-5 July, Russia, Iran and Turkey failed to cement agreements on four “de-escalation zones”. U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin at G20 summit in Hamburg, Germany 7-8 July agreed on outlines of ceasefire in south west covering Quneitra and Daraa provinces and parts of Sweida province, which came into effect 9 July; agreement includes regime and rebels ending direct attacks and bans presence of foreign fighters. Another round of UN-led talks in Geneva mid-July ended with no breakthrough. Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) and allies in Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) coalition made slow progress in retaking Raqqa in north east against stiff resistance from Islamic State (ISIS); broke through Old City walls early July. Govt forces took oil wells from ISIS south west of Raqqa province mid-July. Fighting escalated between YPG and Turkish forces in north west throughout month. In Idlib province in north west, ceasefire held between rebels and pro-regime forces but rising tensions 18-21 July led to worst clashes yet between rival rebel groups Ahrar al-Sham, Islamist faction backed by Turkey, and Hei’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), al-Qaeda-linked alliance dominated by Salafi-jihadist group Fath al-Sham. After HTS surrounded Ahrar al-Sham at Bab al-Hawa crossing on Turkish border, two sides agreed ceasefire 21 July under which Ahrar al-Sham ceded control of crossing. In south east, govt forces and allied Iranian-backed militias launched assault 10 July on Western-backed rebels in eastern Sweida province near Iraqi border, capturing at least seven villages. Negotiations in Cairo between Russia and rebel faction Jaish al-Islam resulted in 22 July partial ceasefire and renewed aid delivery in Eastern Ghouta suburb of Damascus; govt strikes continued on areas of Ghouta controlled by other rebel factions. Govt forces and Lebanese Shiite Islamist militant group Hizbollah 21 July launched coordinated offensives against Fath al-Sham and ISIS around Arsal in Lebanon and near Fleita in Syria; Hizbollah and Fath al-Sham agreed ceasefire 27 July under which latter’s members and their families will move to rebel-held areas of Idlib province (see Lebanon).
As partial ceasefire persisted in west, in east regime forces and allies competed against U.S.-backed forces to seize territory from Islamic State (ISIS), bringing them into direct confrontation and raising risk of escalation in July. Regime forces and Iran-backed militias made several advances during month toward al-Tanf in east near Iraq border where U.S. and other Western forces are training anti-ISIS rebels, provoking several U.S. airstrikes on pro-regime personnel. Pro-regime forces advanced to Iraq border north of al-Tanf. U.S. shot down regime fighter jet 18 June south west of Raqqa after it reportedly dropped bombs near U.S.-backed rebel Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Iran’s Revolutionary Guards 18 June fired multiple ballistic missiles on ISIS targets in Deir al-Zour province in east, portraying strikes as retaliation for 7 June ISIS attacks in Tehran and message to Saudi Arabia and U.S.. Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) and allies in SDF coalition early June began offensive to take ISIS-held Raqqa in north east and, backed by U.S. airstrikes and artillery, made gradual progress moving in from west. Syrian Observatory for Human Rights 30 June said ISIS had withdrawn from its last territory in Aleppo province after Syrian army retook Ithriya-Rasafa road and areas east of Khanaser. Russia 16 June said its airstrike near Raqqa 28 May may have killed ISIS leader Baghdadi. U.S. pushed Kurdish PKK rebels to rein in attacks inside Turkey during Raqqa campaign and started training local security forces in Syria. Turkey late June deployed troops to Syrian border near YPG-held Afrin in north west, amid rumours that it was preparing to launch offensive on area in coming weeks.
Fighting eased in areas included in new partial ceasefire but persisted elsewhere as U.S.-backed forces drew closer to offensive on Islamic State (ISIS) stronghold Raqqa in north east. Following talks in Kazakhstan capital Astana, Russia, Turkey and Iran 4 May agreed on partial ceasefire for at least six months in four zones: Idlib province and adjacent areas to west, south and east; pocket in north of Homs province; Eastern Ghouta suburb of Damascus; and parts of Daraa and Quneitra provinces in south. Pro-regime forces shifted military pressure to Damascus suburb Qaboun, where rebels surrendered and evacuated with families mid-May, and areas in south east where Western-backed rebels have advanced against ISIS. Rebels and families began evacuating Damascus suburb Barzeh 8 May under deal and finished evacuating al-Waer district of Homs 21 May under March surrender deal ceding complete control of city to regime forces. U.S. jets struck pro-regime forces 18 May as they advanced toward al-Tanf base on Syria-Iraq border where U.S. and other coalition partners are training anti-ISIS rebels; U.S. dropped flyers 28 May warning pro-regime forces not to come within 55km of base. Pro-regime forces prepared offensive against ISIS in Deir al-Zour city in east. Russia 31 May said its warships in Mediterranean fired several cruise missiles at ISIS targets near Palmyra in east and hit targets. Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) and junior allies in Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) coalition 10 May took full control of Tabqa dam and town from ISIS about 40km west of Raqqa, setting stage for push on city; U.S. 30 May said it had begun to arm YPG for offensive. Sixth round of UN-brokered talks in Geneva 16-19 May made no progress, due to resume in June.
Chemical weapon attack on rebel-held town prompted U.S. strike on regime air base and fighting spiked between Turkey and Kurdish forces; with offensive on Islamic State (ISIS)-stronghold Raqqa imminent, May could see worse violence. Chemical weapon attack on rebel-held Khan Sheikhoun, Idlib province in NW 4 April killed over 80 people; Western countries including U.S., UK, France and Germany held regime responsible, President Assad denied accusations, Russia denied regime responsible. In response, U.S. 7 April launched missile strike on regime’s Shayrat air base from which it believes 4 April attack was launched. Regime or Russian warplanes dropped incendiary bombs over towns of Saraqeb in Idlib and al-Latamenah in Hama 8-9 April and reportedly hit two medical centres in Idlib 27 April. Regime forces and allies took back territory from rebels near Hama city in west throughout April, captured Soran 16 April and Halfaya 23 April. Alleged U.S.-led coalition airstrikes reportedly killed at least 30 civilians in Deir al-Zour province in east 17 April. ISIS reportedly launched two suicide attacks on rebels near Tanf, near Iraq border 9 April. Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) said new phase in campaign against ISIS, launched 13 April, would clear areas north of ISIS stronghold Raqqa and pave way for attack on city; SDF 27 April advanced into old city of ISIS-held Tabqa 40km west of Raqqa, 18 April said they had been setting up civilian council to govern Raqqa after ISIS pushed out. Evacuation of rebels and civilians from regime-besieged towns of Zabadani and Madaya near Damascus to rebel-held NW began mid-April in exchange for evacuation of civilians and pro-regime fighters from two rebel-besieged Shia villages in Idlib, Foua and Kafraya, to Aleppo. Bombing of evacuees from Foua and Kafraya 15 April reportedly killed 126 people; evacuation completed 21 April. Turkish airstrikes 25-27 April hit Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) in NE and other Kurdish forces in Sinjar region, Iraq, killing at least twenty. YPG 26 April attacked four Turkish army posts along border (see Turkey). Israeli airstrikes 27 April hit arms depot near Damascus airport operated by Hizbollah, allegedly targeting arms sent from Iran. Fighting between Jaish al-Islam and Failaq al-Rahman rebels broke out in besieged rebel-held Eastern Ghouta suburb of Damascus 27 April, at least 95 fighters and civilians killed; during fighting regime and allied forces attacked rebel-held Qaboun district, NW of Eastern Ghouta.
Fighting continued on multiple fronts, most intensely in east Damascus and near Hama in west, as talks failed to make progress. Rebels besieged by regime forces in al-Waer, last rebel bastion in Homs city, 13 March struck deal with regime allowing them to leave for north with light weapons and families; evacuation ongoing end-month. Hei’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), rebel alliance dominated by Salafi-jihadist group Fath al-Sham, claimed 11 March twin suicide bombings in Damascus Old City that killed 74, reportedly including 43 Iraqi Shiite pilgrims and twenty members of pro-govt forces. Two as yet unclaimed suicide bombings struck Palace of Justice and restaurant in Damascus 15 March reportedly killing more than 30. U.S. airstrikes 16 March allegedly hit mosque west of Aleppo city, reportedly killing over 50 mostly civilians; Pentagon denied it destroyed mosque, said it targeted and hit al-Qaeda gathering across street. Rebels including Free Syrian Army (FSA) and HTS 19 March launched offensive to take territory in Jobar and Abbasiyin districts in E Damascus, however regime forces reportedly took back captured territory in following days. Rebels including HTS and FSA groups 21 March launched major offensive against regime-held areas near Hama city, capturing at least eleven villages and towns and advancing to within kilometres of city. Regime counter-attack supported by Russian warplanes, stalled advance. In run-up to offensive on Islamic State (ISIS) stronghold Raqqa, U.S. aircraft 21 March for first time airdropped members of Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG)-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) near Tabqa, about 40km west of Raqqa; SDF 24 March reached ISIS-held Tabqa dam on Euphrates River. Turkey 29 March said it had ended Operation Euphrates Shield in north begun Aug 2016 aimed at pushing ISIS away from border and prevent YPG advance westwards across Euphrates, Turkish troops remained in captured territory. FSA groups late March pushed ISIS fighters out of sparsely populated areas in south east. Regime and some rebel groups took part in procedural talks 23 Feb-3 March in Geneva; rebels boycotted talks in Kazakh capital Astana mid-month citing regime ceasefire violations. Next round of talks in Geneva 24-31 March made no progress toward peace agreements. U.S. 30 March said priority was no longer “getting Assad out”.
Ceasefire between regime and some armed opposition groups in place since 30 Dec nominally remained in effect but violence continued in several areas in run-up to Geneva talks late month. Following clashes between non-jihadist and Salafi-jihadist rebel groups late Jan, Hei’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), new alliance dominated by Salafi-jihadist Fath al-Sham, early Feb took territory and materiel from rival rebels west of Aleppo. Turkey-backed rebels and pro-regime forces (both advancing toward al-Bab, NE of Aleppo) clashed early Feb. After lull since start of ceasefire, regime early Feb resumed airstrikes in parts of Homs and Idlib provinces and efforts to gain ground in Eastern Ghouta suburb of Damascus. Non-jihadist rebel umbrella group Ahrar al-Sham and allies mid-month launched raids in rural areas around Lattakia and Hama, and diverse rebel groups including Ahrar al-Sham, HTS and local factions 12 Feb launched offensive in Daraa city in south next to Jordan border. Islamic State (IS)-linked group 20 Feb expanded territory seizing several towns in south near borders with Israel and Jordan. Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) and fellow members of Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) took territory around IS-held Raqqa in NE during month to cut IS supply lines in run-up to attack on city. Turkey-backed rebels 23 Feb took complete control of al-Bab in north from IS, 26 Feb clashed with govt forces south of al-Bab. UN-led talks between govt and opposition groups opened in Geneva 23 Feb, ongoing end-month. Gunmen and suicide bombers 25 Feb attacked two security services bases in Homs city killing at least 30, HTS claimed attacks; govt launched airstrikes on various rebel-held areas including al-Waer, last rebel enclave in Homs. Govt advances in north late month opened route between Aleppo and SDF-controlled Manbij. Russia and China 28 Feb vetoed UNSC resolution drafted by France, UK and U.S. to ban supply of helicopters to govt and blacklist Syrian military commanders over accusations of toxic gas attacks.
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