After ceasefire agreed late Dec, violence declined in NW but regime continued offensives against rebels outside Damascus as jihadist and non-jihadist rebel factions continued to clash. Russia and Turkey organised talks in Kazakhstan’s capital Astana 23-24 Jan; regime and non-jihadist opposition groups, with notable exception of Ahrar al-Sham, attended; Russia, Turkey and Iran agreed to form trilateral commission to monitor and enforce ceasefire, details and prospects for accomplishing that remain unclear; neither regime nor any opposition group endorsed agreement. Regime forces 29 Jan said they had recaptured Wadi Barada valley near Damascus including source of most of city’s water. U.S. bombed training camp of al-Qaeda-linked Fath al-Sham in Idlib province 19 Jan killing over 100 alleged militants. Fath al-Sham Salafi-jihadist group, previously called Nusra Front, and Ahrar al-Sham rebels clashed in Idlib province in NW 18-20 Jan. Fath al-Sham attacked non-jihadist rebel faction Jaish al-Mujahideen west of Aleppo 23-24 Jan; following attack six rebel factions joined Ahrar al-Sham. Fath al-Sham and four other jihadist factions 28 Jan formed new alliance Tahrir al-Sham. Islamic State (IS) 16 Jan broke through regime lines in eastern city Deir al-Zour after months of stalemate, surrounding military airport; Russian planes 30 Jan conducted airstrikes on IS positions in Deir al-Zour area. Rebels, backed by Turkish forces, continued efforts to push IS out of al-Bab, north of Aleppo. Turkey and Russia conducted joint airstrikes on IS positions near al-Bab mid-late Jan. Russian aircraft carrier deployed off Syrian coast in Oct began journey home mid-Jan; over 30 Russian fighter jets and helicopter gunships reportedly remained in Syria. U.S. 29 Jan said Saudi Arabia’s King Salman at President Trump’s request agreed to support safe zones for displaced people in Syria; regime 30 Jan said establishing safe zones without its consent would be “unsafe”; Trump’s commitment to safe zone remains unclear.

Regime forces, Russia and Iran-backed foreign fighters with combined aerial bombardment and ground offensive forced rebels out of E Aleppo mid-Dec dealing blow to non-jihadist rebels and opposition’s political ambitions. Tens of thousands of civilians fleeing bombing entered regime-controlled areas where pro-regime forces rounded up fighting-age men. After several failed attempts by UN, U.S. and rebels to negotiate secure withdrawal of remaining rebels and civilians from E Aleppo, Moscow and Ankara brokered deal 13 Dec to evacuate all rebels and civilians to rebel-held areas west of Aleppo. Militias backed by Iran, not party to deal, blocked implementation and Tehran demanded evacuation of wounded fighters and civilians from two Shia villages besieged by rebels in Idlib, Foua and Kafraya. Fighting resumed in Aleppo 14 Dec until new agreement reached 16 Dec. Evacuations from E Aleppo began alongside preparations to withdraw wounded fighters, women and children from Foua and Kafraya until Salafi-jihadist Jund al-Aqsa group and unidentified anti-regime gunmen 18 Dec torched several buses going to collect Shia evacuees. Turkey assisted talks to ensure security for buses and evacuations from E Aleppo resumed 19 Dec and continued until 22 Dec; at least 35,000 civilians and fighters evacuated. UNSC same day passed resolution authorising UN personnel to monitor process. Islamic State (IS) 11 Dec recaptured Palmyra from regime and allies. Russia, Iran and Turkey 19 Dec at Russia-hosted summit agreed to try to broker talks between regime and rebels and expand ceasefire to areas beyond Aleppo, set principles for agreement. Turkish-backed rebels and Turkish soldiers continued offensive to push IS out of al-Bab in north; fighting intensified late Dec, Russian jets hit three IS targets near al-Bab 29-30 Dec. Ceasefire between pro-regime and non-jihadist rebel forces, brokered by Russia and Turkey, began 30 Dec; appeared to be largely holding in north during first 48 hours, but not around Damascus where regime military advances continued.

Pro-regime camp 15 Nov re-escalated attacks on rebel strongholds in E Aleppo, west of city and across Syria, causing significant civilian casualties and damage and making significant gains against rebels late month. Escalation followed pause which began late Oct, during which Russia withheld airstrikes in and around Aleppo city and joined regime calls – largely unheeded – for fighters and civilians inside rebel areas to flee. Russia simultaneously began bringing additional naval assets into Mediterranean to strengthen its attack arsenal, in its largest naval operation since Cold War. First half of Nov saw rebel forces led by Jabhat Fateh al-Sham continue late Oct assault on W Aleppo; regime and Iran-backed militias successfully repelled rebel counter-attack. UN reiterated warning that all sides may be committing war crimes, causing large numbers of civilian casualties. Resumption of attacks 15 Nov saw return of full-scale aerial bombardment of E Aleppo. Regime-backed forces took around a third of rebel-held E Aleppo since 26 Nov, prompting tens of thousands of civilians to flee; some 500 men reportedly seized by regime-backed forces. UN Humanitarian Coordinator Jan Egeland 24 Nov reported increasingly dire humanitarian situation in E Aleppo. To the east of Aleppo city, Turkish-backed forces and Kurdish People’s Protection Unit (YPG) forces clashed 22 Nov as both advanced toward IS-held al-Bab (See Turkey). YPG-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) 6 Nov announced U.S.-backed campaign to seize Raqqa from Islamic State (IS). U.S. soldier killed by IED north of Raqqa 24 Nov. U.S. election victory of Donald Trump, who during his campaign voiced scepticism of U.S. support for rebels, desire for conciliatory approach with Russian President Putin, and intensification of efforts against IS, introduced new uncertainty over conflict’s external players; Russia’s 15 Nov offensive initiated hours after Putin spoke to Trump by phone. U.S. House of Representatives passed bill 15 Nov sanctioning Syrian regime and its backers.

Multinational pro-regime offensive against rebel-held eastern Aleppo continued, backed by Russian-Syrian air campaign, making significant gains early Oct. Hundreds reported killed in city during month, including in attacks on hospitals and other civilian infrastructure. U.S. 3 Oct suspended talks with Russia on cessation of hostilities in response to intensifying airstrikes in Aleppo; also suspended 9 Sept agreement on military cooperation to mount joint operations against IS and Fath al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra). UN Envoy Staffan de Mistura 6 Oct proposed end to Aleppo offensive in exchange for withdrawal of some 900 Fath al-Sham fighters; Fath al-Sham and other rebels rejected proposal. Russia 8 Oct vetoed UNSC resolution demanding end to bombing of Aleppo. Meeting of U.S., Russian, Iranian, Saudi, Turkish, Qatari, Jordanian and Egyptian FMs in Switzerland 15 Oct yielded no discernable progress. U.S. and UK 19 Oct called for “credible” ceasefire as precondition for reopening talks, dismissing Russian offer of shorter humanitarian pauses; intense fighting resumed after three-day humanitarian ceasefire ended 23 Oct. As rebel forces launched operation to break siege 28 Oct, de Mistura 31 Oct said he was “appalled and shocked”, warned that indiscriminate targeting of civilian areas including with heavy weapons “could amount to war crimes”. EU leaders 21 Oct failed to agree on initiative to impose sanctions on Russia over Aleppo bombing. UNSG Ban called for investigation into airstrike on rebel-held Idlib province 26 Oct which hit school killing 35, mostly children. Amnesty International reported at least 300 civilians killed in U.S.-led coalition airstrikes against IS in Syria over two years, over half during campaign for Manbij. Turkish-rebel offensive against IS made further progress, clearing roughly 1,200 km2 area along border including symbolically important Dabiq town, captured 16 Oct. Turkey and Kurdish YPG forces competing to capture IS-held al-Bab, east of Aleppo; U.S., allied with both, continued to urge caution. With advance on IS stronghold in Iraq Mosul ongoing (see Iraq), U.S. 26 Oct said campaign to capture Raqqa will begin in “next few weeks”, with urgency driven by intelligence that IS planning “significant external operations” from city; YPG has insisted it will not provide ground troops for offensive on Raqqa city unless U.S. approves its move toward al-Bab. UN investigators 21 Oct reported regime responsible for a third chemical attack in Idlib province in March 2015.

Unravelling of early Sept Syria ceasefire deal between U.S. and Russia followed by worst level of bombardments for months in Aleppo city; thousands of pro-govt forces reported late month to be preparing for advance on rebel-held areas. Following months of bilateral negotiations U.S. and Russia 9 Sept reached deal on coordination, setting out initial seven-day period for both pro-regime and non-jihadi opposition forces to re-commit to and implement Feb 2016 Cessation of Hostilities, and stipulating that aid would enter both sides of Aleppo. Assuming successful initial trial period, U.S. and Russia would then begin to coordinate targeting of Jabhat Fath al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra), with regime to cease airstrikes in areas where opposition present. Both sides observed Cessation of Hostilities agreement at least partially for four days beginning 12 Sept, with notable decline in violence despite some reports of violations in different Syrian cities. However aid blocked from start, tensions increased after U.S. 17 Sept mistakenly bombed Syrian army outpost in Deir al-Zor in east, reportedly killing 62 soldiers. Syrian army 19 Sept announced it would no longer observe truce. Deadly attack on UN aid convoy same day blamed on regime and Russian air force, prompting international outrage; Russia denied. Bombing in rebel-held part of Aleppo resumed, worsening 21 Sept; Syrian army 22 Sept announced new military offensive on city. Reports emerged next day that Russia started using “bunker-buster” bombs in Aleppo, inflicting unprecedented destruction. 400 civilians killed in offensive’s first week, according to UN’s top official for humanitarian affairs. At UNSC 25 Sept, UK, U.S. and French ambassadors accused Russia of war crimes; Moscow called remarks “unacceptable”. Russia rejected calls to end bombing, offered 48-hour pause; U.S. threatened to end talks, reportedly considering sanctions against Russian and Syrian individuals and insitutions. Month saw further reports of regime use of chlorine gas on rebel-held part of Aleppo 6 Sept. Following Turkey’s late-Aug military incursion into north, situation between forces loyal to Kurdish YPG and Turkish-backed rebels remained tense; Ankara hinted it may push SW to capture IS stronghold al-Bab. U.S. Special Forces reportedly deployed with Turkish and rebel forces, despite small 16 Sept local demonstration against their involvement.

Month saw new escalation as Turkey launched major offensive in north, while regime seized an opposition stronghold outside Damascus and battle for Aleppo continued. U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) dominated by Kurdish YPG fighters captured Manbij from IS 6 Aug, capping twelve-week campaign west of Euphrates river. YPG seized some areas of Hasaka in NE from regime forces 23 Aug, expanding their hold within city despite regime’s first ever use of airstrikes against YPG forces. Seeking to remove IS from border area and contain growing YPG control in N Syria, Turkey 23 Aug launched air and ground offensive on Islamic State (IS) positions near Jarablus together with Turkish-backed rebels and U.S. fighter jets; next day took control of city, as operation continued west of city to seize last remaining IS-held territory along border. U.S. said Kurdish forces must retreat from Menbij area to east of Euphrates river, key Turkish demand to which U.S. agreed prior to Manbij campaign. SDF forces linked to YPG clashed with Turkey-backed forces near Jarablus; latter seized several villages from SDF 29 Aug. Battle for Aleppo between Russian-backed govt forces and rebels continued: coalition of rebel groups (including Jabhat Fath al-Sham, formerly Jabhat al-Nusra) 6 Aug broke month-long siege on east Aleppo. Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported over 600 civilians killed in Aleppo during month as fighting including further regime and Russian airstrikes continued. UN continued calls for regular 48-hour ceasefire in Aleppo to allow aid delivery; proposed third round of UN-mediated intra-Syrian peace talks previously planned for late Aug deferred. Negotiations continued between Russia and U.S. on restoring cessation of hostilities agreement and initiating military cooperation against Fath al-Sham. IS-affiliated media 30 Aug reported IS chief strategist Abu Muhammad al-Adnani killed in Aleppo province. In significant gain for Assad regime, rebel stronghold Darayya outside Damascus surrendered to govt forces 25 Aug ending four-year siege; regime reported evacuation of residents and fighters complete 27 Aug. UN and Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) investigation determined regime and IS responsibility for specific chlorine and mustard chemical attacks in 2014 and 2015; separate report by OPCW also suggested that regime maintained chemical weapons agents in violation of Chemical Weapons Convention and 2013 agreement brokered by U.S. and Russia.

Regime air and artillery fire, assisted by re-intensified Russian airstrikes, severed final supply line into areas of Aleppo city held by mostly non-jihadi opposition mid-month, amid renewed diplomatic manoeuvering between U.S. and Russia. Scores killed by fighting in and around Aleppo during month as airstrikes and rocket attacks hit civilian areas; four hospitals hit by airstrikes 24 July. As many as 300,000 civilians estimated to remain in encircled portion of city, as UN warned of critical humanitarian conditions and dwindling basic supplies, called for regular ceasefires around city. Regime 28 July said army had cut off all supply routes, in Russian-supported initiative informed residents and rebels willing to surrender that they could leave through “humanitarian corridors”; UN called for guarantees, humanitarian access, ICRC said departures must not be forced. Elsewhere, over 40 people reported killed in Islamic State (IS) bombing of Qamishli city near Turkish border 27 July. Kurdish YPG-led, U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces’ (SDF) campaign to capture Menbij city from IS continued, meeting sustained IS resistance; activists reported U.S. airstrike on city killed at least 73 civilians 19 July, reportedly worst coalition attack on civilians. U.S. 28 July opened formal investigation; another coalition airstrike 28 July reportedly killed over a dozen civilians. Month also saw extensive bilateral talks between Russia and U.S., which proposed military coordination against Jabhat al-Nusra (JN) jihadi group in exchange for Russia’s help in re-imposing cessation of hostilities and halting regime aerial attacks. U.S. Sec State Kerry 26 July said talks had made progress, hopes to announce details of planned military cooperation and intelligence sharing early Aug. UN envoy De Mistura late July said third round of UN-mediated intra-Syrian peace talks planned for late Aug; opposition representative said no progress on ground that would indicate a return to talks, while regime said ready for new round of talks “without preconditions”. JN 28 July announced split from al-Qaeda, changing name to Jabhat Fateh al-Sham. Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons announced that regime has retained chemical warfare agents, violating 2013 deal supposedly eliminating them. Amnesty International report published early July documented “serious abuses” of civilians by armed Syrian opposition groups since 2011.

U.S.-Russia engagement aimed at restoring cessation of hostilities continued without tangible progress, as increasing attacks by both Syrian sides and Russia’s military re-escalation, particularly around Aleppo, appeared to push diplomatic track toward collapse. Russian planes 16 June struck U.S.-trained rebel force committed exclusively to combatting Islamic State (IS) in camp along Jordanian and Iraqi border; same day, intense regime airstrikes continued in Aleppo, ignoring 48-hour “calm” Russia had declared in city. Russia 19 June reported agreement with U.S. to improve coordination between their military operations; U.S. previously refused such coordination, but reports from Washington on 30 June suggest its position may have shifted. Elsewhere, Kurdish YPG troops and their allies in YPG-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) 1 June launched campaign to capture city of Menbij, south of the last stretch of Syrian-Turkish border controlled by IS. Backed by U.S. air power and special forces, campaign managed to encircle city within days. Offensive represents significant shift by U.S., which previously urged YPG to hold back due to Turkish opposition; reversal apparently driven by IS gains against Turkey-backed rebels along border; U.S. gave Turkey assurances that YPG personnel will withdraw from city once it is captured. Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah 25 June vowed to increase the organisation’s forces in Aleppo, amid renewed pro-regime offensive in city. UN warned of increasing deaths in Damascus suburb Daraya unless regime unblocks aid convoys; concerns also grew for refugees on Jordanian border after Jordan blocked convoys in response to IS suicide bomb attack on military base 21 June killing seven soldiers (see Jordan).

Following mid-April collapse of cessation of hostilities in north, diplomatic engagement and military escalation continued. High-level meetings between U.S. and Russian officials produced re-affirmations of truce in Lattakia, Damascus and Aleppo, but reducing violence only for short, pre-defined periods. Regime and Iran-backed Shia foreign forces/proxies escalated in Aleppo as truce continued to erode, however they were unable to gain territory and suffered significant setback south of city where dozens of pro-regime fighters were killed including Iranians as Jaish al-Fateh rebel alliance recaptured village of Khan Touman 6 May. Russian airstrikes remain at lower level than prior to Feb cessation, though reportedly began to hit Aleppo city again starting 22 May. At least 23 reported killed in Russian airstrikes on Idlib 31 May. Islamic State (IS) claimed series of bombings on regime coastal stronghold starting 23 May, reportedly killing over 100 civilians. U.S.-backed Kurdish-led forces 24 May began offensive against IS near its de facto capital Raqqa; IS captured territory from rebels near Turkish border late month, with dozens killed in fighting. U.S. continued to push for return to cessation; UN envoy de Mistura 26 May told UNSG Ban no new round of talks likely for two-to-three weeks. Chief opposition negotiator Mohammed Alloush resigned late month citing failure of talks. Mustafa Badreddine, top Hizbollah commander believed to be organisation’s most senior official in Syria, killed 12 May (see Lebanon). Syrian pound depreciated further, fuelling concern over humanitarian situation. UN late month reported humanitarian aid reaching only a fraction of those in need, as govt continues to block supplies to several areas it is besieging. Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group reported at least 60,000 people have died in govt jails since beginning of conflict in 2011.

Month saw fragile “cessation of hostilities” which began 27 Feb collapse in N Syria and UN-brokered talks in Geneva unravel; regime and rebel shelling resulted in over 250 people reported killed in Aleppo 22-30 April, including in 27 April regime airstrike on hospital killing 50. Weeks of deterioration culminated 19 April with regime airstrikes on market in rebel-held Maarat al-Nauman in Idlib province, killing dozens. Opposition 19 April suspended participation in Geneva talks, citing continued regime military offensives and lack of progress in improving humanitarian conditions. Violence in Aleppo escalated as regime and Iran-backed militias began major offensive on city mid-April, while non-jihadist rebel factions joined Jabhat al-Nusra (JN) in escalating counter-attacks. Islamic State (IS) 27 April seized villages north of Aleppo along Turkish border, reversing rebel progress achieved early April. Initial casualty figures and pro-regime media reports suggest participation of allied foreign fighters and Iranian military personnel including from Iranian army in Aleppo at all-time high. As violence in Aleppo escalated, UN Special Envoy De Mistura 28 April called on Russia and U.S. to salvage ceasefire. Syrian army announced temporary “regime of calm” beginning 30 April, although Aleppo excluded, and most major opposition groups rejected regional ceasefires. UN rights chief Zeid Raad al-Hussein warned of reports of military build-ups indicating imminent escalation. Fighting continued elsewhere, including clashes between Kurdish forces affiliated with YPG and pro-regime militiamen in YPG-dominated city of Qamishli 20 April, prompting nearby regime forces to shell Kurdish neighbourhoods in Qamishli. Attacks against IS and JN continued, including four U.S.-led coalition airstrikes near two cities hitting three tactical units and destroying two fighting positions 23 April. Regime held parliamentary elections 13 April; Washington dismissed elections, Russia reiterated agreement that new elections should be held once political process produces new constitution. U.S. President Obama 25 April announced 250 U.S. special forces to be deployed to assist local militia in fight against IS.