CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Battle against Islamic State (IS) in Anbar (W) and Ninewa (NW) provinces continued. U.S.-led coalition postponed operation to take Falluja in Anbar province as alliance between local tribes, clerics and IS remains solid. Iraqi forces with local support 13 March launched offensive on Hit, NW of Ramadi in Anbar province; operation gained ground but ongoing end-month. Officials said IS launched two chemical attacks 9 and 12 March on Taza town south of Kirkuk city reportedly wounding nearly 600 people. IS rocket attack on U.S. Makhmour base south of Mosul 19 March killed one marine, wounded several. U.S. 25 March said it would increase troops in Iraq, likely to help Iraqi forces retake villages in Ninewa plain. IS suicide bomber 25 March killed at least 41 people at stadium in Iskandariya, Babel province, south of Baghdad. Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr led thousands in ongoing weekly protests in Baghdad calling for govt reforms and for PM Abadi to announce new cabinet line-up; Abadi promised reforms 29 March. U.S. officials late Feb warned of dangers posed by deteriorating condition of Mosul dam. Amid financial crisis Kurdistan Regional Govt (KRG) 11 March restarted oil exports after three-week break.
Fighting continued in Islamic State (IS) stronghold Fallujah, where Sunni tribesmen and IS fighters clashed 19-20 Feb; fighting reportedly stopped after IS militants detained dozens of civilians, but Iraqi army continued shelling IS on city’s outskirts. Humanitarian situation in Falluja remained critical; Anbar province Governor 1 Feb appealed to U.S.-led coalition for supplies. U.S. reported that coalition airstrikes 21 Feb near Fallujah, Mosul, Ramadi and Sinjar hit four IS tactical units; five coalition strikes 27 Feb near Mosul destroyed five fighting positions, other strikes also hit targets near Fallujah, Ramadi, Sinjar. Sunni fighters, backed by Kurdish forces and U.S.-led airstrikes, reportedly retook village from IS in Makhmour district 3 Feb. Officials 8 Feb reported thousands of soldiers deployed to military base near Makhmour district in preparation for operations against IS in Mosul. IS-claimed suicide bombings killed at least 70 in Shiite district of Baghdad 28 Feb, at least 40 in Diyala 29 Feb, and eight security force members at Abu Ghraib checkpoint 29 Feb. Amid popular discontent over govt’s failure to implement anti-corruption reforms, PM Abadi 9 Feb said he would reshuffle cabinet to replace political appointees with technocrats; Moqtada al-Sadr endorsed decision and called for massive demonstration in central Baghdad 26 Feb gathering his supporters and civil society activists. Kurdistan Regional Govt’s (KRG) President Barzani 2 Feb said he would organise non-binding referendum on independence. With region facing worst financial crisis since 2003, govt plan to cut civil servant salaries by 75% sparked wave of protests, especially in Suleymania province.
Saudi Arabia’s 2 Jan execution of Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr further polarised region along sectarian lines, complicating Iraqi government efforts to rebuild multilateral relations with its neighbours, particularly Saudi Arabia. Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani and Shiite political forces 3 Jan denounced execution. Following spate of insurgent attacks 11 Jan in which dozens were killed, including IS attacks in Baghdad and Diyala, Shia militiamen reportedly carried out retaliatory attacks against Sunnis in Diyala province. Retaliatory attacks fuelled growing concern over sectarian violence in Diyala, which was cleared of Islamic State (IS) Jan 2015. Despite PM Abadi’s visit to Diyala 14 Jan in attempt to calm tensions, Sunni lawmakers walked out of parliament 19 Jan in protest at attacks and fact that Shia militiamen hold Diyala security file, not govt. Sistani 15 Jan urged unity. Five suicide bombers attacked military base north of Baghdad 3 Jan, fifteen security personnel killed. Coalition airstrikes destroyed IS cash distribution site in Mosul 12 Jan; U.S reported sixteen coalition airstrikes targeted IS 20 Jan, fourteen IS fighting positions in Sinjar destroyed. U.S. 5 Jan said IS-held territory in Iraq decreased by 40% in 2015. Three Americans and one Iraqi kidnapped in Baghdad 15 Jan, Iraqi officials said Shiite militia Asaeb Ahl al-Haq possibly responsible. UN report 19 Jan stated civilian suffering from violence “remains staggering”, at least 18,800 killed Jan 2014-Oct 2015. Amnesty International 20 Jan reported Kurdistan Regional Govt forces possibly committed war crimes in areas captured from IS. Police 26 Jan reported mass grave discovered in Ramadi. Finance ministry 6 Jan announced govt likely unable to pay salaries in 2016 due to financial crisis provoked by sharp drop in oil prices, stoking fears of increasing domestic tensions, strengthening anti-establishment forces such as Shia militias and weakening govt credibility. UN 31 Jan requested additional $861mn for humanitarian crisis.
Coalition air-bombings helped government forces to retake central neighbourhoods of Ramadi, Anbar province capital, seized in May by Islamic State (IS), on 28 Dec. Despite Iraqi govt’s celebration, liberation remains incomplete: most govt infrastructure heavily damaged and portions of city remain under IS control. Coordinated assault by IS on Kurdish peshmerga positions near Mosul repulsed by Kurdish forces backed by coalition airstrikes mid-Dec. Regional and international tensions continued as Turkey, with tacit agreement of Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP) leadership, deployed some 150-300 soldiers and 25 tanks to Ninewa province, northwest; Russia 7-8 Dec forced Iraqi Kurdistan to shut down its airspace. PM Abadi denounced Turkey’s move as violation of sovereignty, appealed to UN, issued ultimatum for troops to be withdrawn within 48 hours; Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani 11 Dec condemned foreign intervention in Iraq in any form. Turkey mid-Dec began to withdraw troops, late Dec said it would continue withdrawal but PM Abadi 30 Dec said Turkey has not withdrawn. Qatar stepped up efforts to unite Iraq Sunni forces by organising a second meeting in its capital to devise a post-IS plan for Iraq’s Sunni provinces; triggered prompt reaction from Iran-affiliated forces in south Iraq. Some 100 gunmen 16 Dec kidnapped 26 Qatari nationals hunting in south near Saudi Arabia border.
Iraqi Kurdish forces 12 Nov launched long-awaited operation to flush Islamic State (IS) from Sinjar in Ninewa province, with air support from anti-IS coalition. Sinjar rapidly liberated, though Intra-Kurdish rivalries between Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and Turkish Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) evident. Mass grave discovered mid-Nov in east of Sinjar town. Clashes in Anbar province between IS and govt backed by anti-IS coalition airstrikes continued: Iraq’s military command late Nov advised all civilians to leave provincial capital Ramadi prompting speculation of imminent operation to retake city from IS. IS suicide bombings killed tens throughout month. Political tensions in Baghdad continued despite late Oct reforms to public sector salaries. Turkish airstrikes against PKK in northern Iraq continued (see Turkey).
Baghdad govt late Oct said it would authorise Russian airstrikes against Islamic state (IS) in Iraq weeks after first Russian strikes in Syria. Iraqi security forces backed by U.S.-led coalition continued fight against IS, early Oct retook several areas north and west of Ramadi, Anbar province. At least 26 killed late Oct in rocket attack on Camp Liberty housing exiled Iranian opposition. IS attacks continued including at least 50 killed, 100 injured 5 Oct by series of car bombs in Baghdad. UN reported over 700, including 559 civilians, killed in Oct. Parliamentary Shiite factions 29 Oct threatened to withdraw support from PM Abadi’s govt if it fails to deliver genuine reform. Serious political turmoil in Iraqi Kurdistan over presidency, occupied for over a decade by Massoud Barzani, undermining U.S. anti-IS strategy of arming Kurds to fight jihadi group. Kurdish Regional Govt (KRG) PM Nechirvan Barzani 13 Oct sacked Gorran cabinet members, including peshmerga, finance and religious affairs ministers, and announced reshuffle. Demonstrators early Oct began protests in cities of Suleimaniya governorate against Kurdish govt’s failure to pay employees including teachers, civil servants and peshmerga fighters; nine protesters injured 10 Oct in clashes with police; protests increasingly partisan.
Reforms in response to Aug street protests continued: PM Abadi 9 Sept fired 133 deputy ministers and director generals, following dismissal of three VPs and cuts in number of bodyguards allotted to senior politicians; Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani continued to support reforms, called on protesters to show patience, warned against manipulation by Shiite factions keen to oust PM, and called for prosecution of corrupt officials. Tensions between four main Kurdish parties continued in Kurdistan Regional Administration following end of President Barzani’s term 18 Aug. Islamic State (IS) attacks and bombings continued including 17 Sept bombing of Baghdad market that killed at least 23; ongoing clashes with govt troops and affiliated militias around Ramadi. Turkish air strikes against PKK rebels continued, Turkish ground forces crossed into Iraq (see Turkey).
Continued wave of anti-establishment protests in Baghdad and southern provinces over corruption and systematic inadequacy of service delivery brought country to edge of yet more serious conflict. Top religious authority Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani 7 Aug attempted to de-escalate tensions by denouncing corruption and calling on PM Abadi to undertake reforms to address problems. Parliament 11 Aug approved sweeping reform package that included reducing number of ministries, eliminating multiple deputy PM and VP positions. Kurdistan region also experienced political crisis: regional President Barzani’s term formally ended 19 Aug; Gorran and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), two of region’s largest political parties, challenged Barzani’s wish to serve third term, drafted law that would empower region’s parliament to elect new president. Clashes with Islamic State (IS) and IS attacks continued: at least 67 killed 14 Aug by truck bomb in Baghdad; at least 58 killed, 100 wounded 10 Aug in bomb attacks in Diyala province; five including two generals killed by suicide bomber 27 Aug near Ramadi. U.S. reported senior IS leader Haji Mutazz killed in drone strike 18 Aug. Turkey strikes on alleged PKK bases in Kurdistan Regional Govt territory continued (see Turkey).
Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIL) attacks and suicide bombings continued throughout month including 18 July car bomb in Khan Bani Saad town that killed some 120 and injured at least 130. Shiite militias and central govt 12 July announced beginning of second large-scale military operation to retake Anbar governorate from IS, 27 July launched attack on Ramadi. Fighting around first target, Falluja, quickly reached stalemate: IS reportedly planted booby-traps around city blocking militias from entering and confining Falluja’s residents to city. UN report released mid-month estimated nearly 15,000 civilians killed Jan 2014-April 2015 by conflict in Iraq. Kurdistan Regional Govt (KRG) early month said it was exporting crude oil from Kirkuk fields independently of Baghdad; move violates earlier agreement between KRG PM Barzani and Iraq’s Oil Minister Abdel Abdul Mahdi. KRG placed in difficult position of choosing between solidarity with longstanding economic partner Turkey or Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) after Turkey launched strikes against PKK militants in northern Iraq late July (see Turkey).
Iraqi soldiers, militias and Kurdish forces continued to clash with Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIL) throughout month; U.S. coalition strikes against IS continued. IS suicide bombers killed some 40 Iraqi soldiers in attack on police HQ near Ramadi 1 June; attacks in and near Baghdad continued including at least twelve killed in series of bombings in Baghdad commercial areas 27 June. Seventeen killed 15 June in clash between pro-govt forces and IS in Baiji town. U.S. President Obama 10 June approved deployment of additional 450 U.S. troops to advise and train Iraqi army. PM Abadi suggested U.S. lacked real commitment to troop training, 27 June said Iraqi troop withdrawal from Ramadi in May “unauthorised”, 30 June “retired” army chief-of-staff. U.S. Defense Sec Ashley Carter mid-June noted Iraqi soldiers unwilling to fight, Iraqi govt unable to provide over half of the 24,000 soldiers U.S. is proposing to train. U.S. Congress 17 June voted down amendment to National Defense Authorisation Act that would have allowed U.S. to send weapons to Iraqi Kurdish forces without approval of Baghdad central govt. UN late June said over three million displaced by conflict in Iraq since early 2014.
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