Türkiye intensified strikes against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in north after deadly Istanbul bombing, while Iranian forces resumed attacks on Iranian Kurdish groups.

Türkiye targeted PKK and threatened ground incursion. Following 13 Nov bombing in Turkish city Istanbul that killed six, which Türkiye blamed on PKK and Syrian affiliate People’s Protection Units (YPG), Turkish forces 20 Nov launched “Operation Claw-Sword” in northern Syria and Iraq (see Türkiye); Turkish defence ministry claimed strikes in both areas 20-21 Nov killed 184 militants. Turkish President Erdoğan starting 21 Nov repeatedly signalled possible ground invasion into northern Syria and Iraq; threat of ground incursion in northern Syria appeared more likely than Iraq (see Syria). Before new operation, Turkish drone attacks 1, 3 Nov killed at least four PKK-affiliated Sinjar Resistance Unit members in Sinjar district, Ninewa governorate. Militant attacks in north 5 Nov and 25 Nov killed four Turkish soldiers.

Iran resumed strikes on Iranian Kurdish groups in Kurdistan region. Amid ongoing domestic turmoil in Iran that authorities blame on foreign agitation (see Iran), Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) 14, 20-21 and 22 Nov launched missile and drone attacks against Kurdistan Democratic Party – Iran (KDPI) in Zargawez area of Sulaymaniyah governorate and Sidakan area of Erbil governorate, reportedly killing at least two; forces also bolstered military presence in Iranian border regions. IRGC Quds Force commander 14 Nov visited capital Baghdad and threatened ground offensive if border was not secured from Kurdish infiltration.

In other important developments. Islamic State (ISIS) continued its insurgency; notably, ISIS 19 Nov attacked army position in Kirkuk governorate, killing four soldiers. Unidentified assailant 7 Nov killed U.S. aid worker in capital Baghdad; PM Sudani same day formed committee to investigate killing. In Kurdistan region, Kurdish Democratic Party 3 Nov held first party congress in 12 years, which appointed Masrour Barzani, son of party leader Masoud Barzani, as second deputy president amid waning influence of his cousin Nechirvan Barzani.

Parliament elected president, breaking year-long political deadlock and paving way for new govt, while Türkiye and Iran continued attacks in Kurdistan amid intra-Kurdish tensions.

Election of president led to appointment of PM-designate and new cabinet. Parliament 13 Oct elected Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) member Abdul Latif Rashid as president, as nine rockets landed near Green Zone in capital Baghdad, injuring ten people. Rashid won support of Shiite Coordination Framework and Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) after former reportedly promised KDP not to enforce Feb 2022 Supreme Court ruling on oil and gas sales. Rashid same day named framework’s nominee Mohammed Shia al-Sudani PM-designate, tasked with forming cabinet by 12 Nov. Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr 15 Oct refused to join new govt; with Sadr sidelined, PM-designate 27 Oct passed cabinet. Sadr is likely to watch govt performance at distance while retaining street-mobilising power for future.

Protesters marked three-year anniversary amid tensions between rival Shiite factions. On anniversary of 2019 Tishreen protest movement, demonstrators 1 Oct protested in Baghdad and southern governorates; in Baghdad, security forces clashed with protesters, injuring over 80. In Dhi Qar governorate, police imposed curfew after unknown groups 3 Oct attacked govt buildings and injured security forces. Unidentified groups 4 Oct fired rockets at presidential palace in Basra city, used by security forces and Iran-aligned groups; al-Sadr 6 Oct announced banning weapons use, except in Salaheddin province, for armed groups under his command.

In Kurdistan region, Türkiye and Iran continued operations amid intra-Kurdish tensions. After Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) 1 Oct killed Turkish soldier, Turkish drone 4 Oct reportedly killed two alleged PKK members in Sulay-maniyah governorate; armed group 8 Oct fired missiles at Zilkan base housing Turkish forces in Dohuk governorate. Regional authorities said Turkish strike 28 Oct killed two PKK militants in Sinjar. Continuing Sept operation, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps 4 Oct reportedly struck alleged Iranian Kurdish groups in Sedikan area; 9 Oct announced end of operation. Meanwhile, in regional capital Erbil, explosive device 7 Oct killed PUK officer close to ousted PUK leader Lahur Talabani – cousin and rival of current PUK leader Bafel Talabani.

Govt formation made modest progress amid tense atmosphere, Türkiye and Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) battled in north, and Iranian forces struck Kurdistan region.

Govt formation slowly progressed amid violence. PM al-Kadhimi 5 Sept convened second round of talks to resolve political deadlock, which Sadrists boycotted. Supreme Court 7 Sept ruled it could not dissolve parliament, key demand of Sadrists. Shiite Coordination Framework 28 Sept pushed for parliamentary session, which was attended by more than 200 MPs despite Sadrist supporters staging protests outside Green Zone; session reached quorum to elect new deputy speaker to replace resigned Sadrist MP, also reaffirmed support for current speaker. As session ended, Sadrist protesters clashed with security forces outside Green Zone, causing injuries on both sides; rockets 28-29 Sept struck Green Zone. Earlier in month, Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr’s Saraya al-Salam forces and Iran-aligned Asaib Ahl al-Haq 1 Sept clashed in Basra city, killing at least four.

North witnessed uptick in attacks between Türkiye and PKK. Turkish drone attack 11 Sept killed two PKK members in Sinjar, Ninewa governorate. Later same day, Türkiye claimed PKK killed four Turkish soldiers in Kurdistan region and 12 Sept an-nounced killing three PKK members in Khalifan district of Kurdistan. Turkish intelligence 14 Sept arrested two PKK members in Makhmour refugee camp, Ninewa governorate; next day said it had neutralised five PKK members. Meanwhile, Turkish intelligence chief 10-11 Sept met senior officials, including president and PM, indicating Ankara’s desire to mend ties after Türkiye’s July attack, which killed nine civilians, and regain Baghdad’s support for operation against PKK.

Iranian forces heavily shelled northern Kurdistan. Amid protests in Iran (see Iran), Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards claimed responsibility for missile and drone strikes targeting Iranian Kurdish opposition parties beginning 24 Sept; notably, strikes 28 Sept killed at least 13 people and wounded 58, including civilians; guards claimed attacks targeted bases of “separatist terrorists”, accused them of key role in unrest. U.S. military 28 Sept downed Iranian drone reportedly targeting Erbil.

Military continued operations against Islamic State (ISIS). Notably, military 10 Sept said airstrikes had killed dozen ISIS members, including two commanders in Hamrin mountains, Salah al-Din governorate.

Unrest escalated further in capital Baghdad, where armed clashes between rival Shiite factions killed 30; ruling Kurdish parties quashed protests in Kurdistan. After supporters of populist Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr stormed parliament in capital Baghdad in late July, thousands of anti-Sadr protestors 1 Aug demonstrated outside Baghdad’s Green Zone. Sadr 3 Aug called for protestors to continue sit-in outside parliament, demanded dissolution of parliament, constitutional amendments and early elections; rival Nuri al-Maliki 8 Aug refused demands. Rival bloc Shiite Coordination Framework 12 Aug began sit-in outside Green Zone, demanding govt formation and resumption of parliament meetings. Sadrist protestors 22-23 Aug gathered outside Supreme Judicial Council in Green Zone after Sadr 10 Aug had called on body to dissolve parliament. Shiite leader Kazem al-Haeri 29 Aug announced retirement and encouraged his own followers to support Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei; in response, Sadr announced retirement, leaving his supporters to demonstrate without guidance. Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) that night fired on Sadrist protesters in Green Zone; Saraya Salam, armed wing of Sadr movement, deployed in response, leading to violent fighting that killed 30 and wounded over 200. Sadr supporters attacked PMF offices across southern provinces. Sadr next day called for calm and supporters’ withdrawal. Deadly clashes night of 31 Aug reportedly spread to southern city Basra. In Kurdistan region, ruling Kurdish parties Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) 6 Aug quashed protests called by leader of New Generation Movement against delayed govt salary payments, rising food prices and unemployment; in PUK-dominated areas, security forces 6 Aug raided houses of political activists and New Generation Movement headquarters, reportedly arresting at least 40 party members. In KDP-dominated areas, security forces in days before 6 Aug arrested activists and journalists. Meanwhile, protests over electricity shortages 6 Aug erupted in southern Basra, Maysan, Wasit and northern Diyala governorates. Unidentified drone strike 1 Aug targeted Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK) in Ranya district of Sulaymaniyah governorate. Turkish defence ministry 27 Aug said it killed nine PKK militants in north. Low-scale Islamic State (ISIS) attacks continued; notably, suspected ISIS attack 2 Aug killed five soldiers in Diyala governorate.

Amid stalled govt formation, tensions between rival Shiite factions escalated as Muqtada al-Sadr’s supporters stormed parliament in capital Baghdad; alleged Turkish attack killed nine tourists in Kurdistan. Shiite Coordination Framework failed to form two-thirds bloc in parliament needed to elect new president following Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr’s political withdrawal in June. In audio leaked 13 July, former PM and one of framework’s leaders Nuri al-Maliki said he was arming select groups in south in preparation for civil war against al-Sadr, whom he accused of plotting state takeover; Maliki 17 July denounced allegations as false, while Sadr next day called on Maliki to exit political process. In show of strength for Sadr, tens of thousands of supporters 15 July gathered in capital Baghdad, answering Sadr’s call to mass prayer; supporters 27, 30 July stormed Baghdad’s fortified Green Zone and parliament, where clashes between protesters and security forces injured 125. Rival Shiite Coordination Framework called for counter-protests on 1 Aug, raising prospect of violence between camps. Meanwhile, Türkiye continued airstrikes against Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK) and affiliates; most notably, alleged Turkish artillery fire 20 July killed nine civilians and injured 23 in tourist resort in Barakh, Zakho district, Duhok province, Kurdistan autonomous region; Ankara denied responsibility for attack, blaming PKK, while Iraqi and Kurdish regional authorities blamed Türkiye. In capital Baghdad, dozens same day protested attacks in front of Turkish embassy and police next day clashed with around 500 protesters. National Security Council 20 July called on Türkiye to withdraw from Iraqi territory. Beyond Kurdistan region, alleged Turkish drone 17 July struck vehicle in Mosul, Ninewa province, killing five and injuring two. Alleged Islamic State (ISIS) attack 3 July killed two Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) members and injured five in Sherwin area of Diyala province. In deadliest attack since Jan, ISIS militants 20 July killed six police officers and injured seven in al-Jilam region, Salahaddin province. Tensions between federal and Kurdistan regional govts deepened over oil production and export from Kurdistan; commercial court in Baghdad 4 July ruled contracts of four foreign oil companies operating in Kurdistan were void.

Largest parliamentary bloc resigned amid deadlocked govt formation, while Türkiye struck Shiite militias for first time and continued to target Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK) and its affiliates. Stalled govt formation efforts entered ninth month; in protest of deadlock, 73 lawmakers from Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr’s bloc 12 June resigned and Sadr 15 June announced he would withdraw from political process, raising prospect of Sadr encouraging street protests; parliament Speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi 12 June accepted resignations. Parliament 23 June held emergency session for replacement MPs to take their oath. Earlier in month, parliament 8 June approved emergency food security bill backed by Sadr, allocating $17bn for food, gas, electricity and public service salaries. Drones allegedly launched by Shiite paramilitary coalition Popular Mobilisation Forces’ (PMF) 30th battalion 2, 9 June targeted Türkiye’s Zilkan base in Bashiqa, Ninewa governorate; group has launched eight attacks on base this year. In response, reports suggested Türkiye 9 June launched indirect fire against 30th battalion, resulting in two casualties in Ninewa plains, in first Turkish assault to date on PMF group not aligned with PKK; tit-for-tat attacks between Türkiye and PMF could increase in disputed areas of Ninewa. Meanwhile, Türkiye continued operations targeting PKK in northern Iraq; notably, in Sinjar district of Ninewa, Türkiye 15 June allegedly conducted airstrikes against PKK-affiliated Sinjar Resistance Units (YBS) positions in Sinuni town, killing two and injuring seven. Turkish drone 17 June targeted vehicle in Kalar town in Sulaymaniyah governorate, killing four PKK militants. In Kurdistan, judicial council 4 June rejected federal supreme court’s Feb ruling that declared regional govt’s development of oil and gas fields outside federal supervision “unconstitutional”. IED-laden drone 8 June hit Pirmam road near U.S. consulate facility in regional capital Erbil, injuring three; security forces claimed Shiite militia Kataib Hezbollah was responsible for attack, while Iranian media said strike targeted Israeli secret service. Low-level Islamic State (ISIS) attacks and counter-ISIS operations continued throughout month; notably, security forces 3 June announced killing four ISIS members in Wadi al-Qathf region in Anbar governorate.

Govt formation efforts remained stalled, army clashed with Sinjar Resistance Units in Sinjar, and Turkish forces launched drone strikes in northern Iraq. Govt formation remained deadlocked. Shiite cleric and leader of largest bloc in Oct 2021 parliamentary elections Muqtada al-Sadr faced setback when Federal Supreme Court 15 May banned govt from appointing senior positions, proposing draft laws and contacting new loans, ending Sadr’s plans to govern without fully authorised govt; Sadr same day announced intention to go into opposition, allowing second largest bloc, Shia Coordination Framework (SCF), to form govt. Meanwhile, SCF sought to intimidate Sunni MPs through threats of violence and court rulings; notably, after SCF petitioned Supreme Court, court 16 May revoked parliamentary status of Sunni lawmaker Mishan al-Jubouri on corruption charges. In Sinjar district, Nineveh province, clashes 1-2 May erupted between army and Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK)-affiliated Sinjar Resistance Units (YBŞ), notably in Dukuri village, following military operation to clear YBŞ forces from area; clashes killed at least three and displaced around 3,000. Joint Operations Command 3 May confirmed clashes ended; tribal leaders and Hashd al-Shaabi paramilitary force mediated ceasefire. YBŞ has come under pressure from Turkish air campaign against PKK in Kurdistan and restriction of cross-border movement into Syria due to govt construction of wall along Syrian border. Suspected Turkish drone 21 May reportedly targeted vehicle near Chamchamal town in Sulaymaniyah province, killing five, including at least two alleged PKK members; another drone same day hit vehicle in Makhmour refugee camp in Nineveh province, reportedly killing two. Drone attack claimed by Ahrar Sinjar militia 21 May reportedly targeted Zilkan military base hosting Turkish troops in Bashiqa, Nineveh province, killing one. In Kurdistan region, six missiles reportedly launched from Bartella town in Nineveh province 1 May hit oil refinery in regional capital Erbil. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps 11 May reportedly targeted Erbil with artillery fire. Iraqi Security Media Cell 24 May announced it shot down drone approaching airbase near airport of capital Baghdad that hosts Iraqi and U.S. forces. Low-level Islamic State (ISIS) attacks continued throughout month; notably, two ISIS attacks in Kirkuk and Nineveh provinces 23 May reportedly killed 12.

Deadlocked govt formation led to unprecedented constitutional impasse, Turkey launched new operation against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), and Islamic State (ISIS) stepped up attacks during Ramadan. Govt formation remained stalled after last month’s failed attempts to achieve two-thirds quorum in parliament, leaving country in unprecedented situation that upends constitutional timeline for parliament to appoint president within 30 days of speaker’s election (completed in mid-Jan); constitution requires president to appoint PM. Following Shiite cleric and leader of bloc that won largest share of seats in Oct 2021 parliamentary election Muqtada al-Sadr’s announcement late March that he would give rivals in Shia Coordination Framework 40 days to negotiate with his allies Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP) and Sunni Sovereignty Alliance to form govt, KDP and Sovereignty Alliance 1 April issued statement reaffirming commitment to Tripartite Alliance with Sadr, now rebranded “Saving the homeland” bloc. Hundreds of demonstrators 15 April protested political deadlock in capital Baghdad. Turkish military 17-18 April launched new operation against PKK in northern Iraq dubbed “Claw-Lock”; fighter jets targeted infrastructure and bases used by PKK militants in Metina, Zab and Avashin-Basyan regions; Turkish Defence Ministry next day announced killing at least 19 militants. President Salih 19 April called attack threat to Iraq’s national security and Foreign Ministry 20 April summoned Turkey’s envoy. As part of yearly uptick in attacks during Ramadan, ISIS conducted over dozen attacks against security forces in central regions. Notably, Security Media Cell 4 April announced that alleged ISIS suicide bomber injured at least four soldiers in Nwegeit mountains, Ninewa province, while Iraqi troops killed three militants. Counter-ISIS operations continued throughout month. In Ninewa governorate, suspected Hashd al-Shaabi-linked militant groups 3-4 April launched rockets on Turkey’s Zilkan military base in Bashiqa town; three missiles launched from Hamdaniya district in Ninewa 6 April targeted oil refinery in Khabat district, Erbil governorate. U.S.-led international coalition 8 April announced downing drone targeting Ain al-Assad airbase in Anbar governorate. Unknown attackers 15 April launched explosives-laden drone at Hashd al-Shaabi base in Tal Afar district, which injured one commander, possibly in retaliation for 6 April attack.

Iran launched missiles at alleged Israeli target in Erbil, govt formation remained deadlocked, and Islamic State (ISIS) appointed new leader. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) 13 March fired 12 ballistic missiles at alleged Israeli “strategic center” in area near U.S. consulate in Kurdistan’s regional capital Erbil; attack reportedly conducted in response to Israeli drone strike that killed two IRGC officers in Syria 7 March (see Syria) and Israeli attack on drone facility in Iran’s Kermanshah province in Feb; attack was launched from Iranian soil and without consultation of local Iranian allies who faced backlash for Iran’s violation of Iraqi sovereignty. On political front, govt formation remained deadlocked. Following failure to elect president last month, parliament 5 March voted to reopen nomination period for presidential candidates; Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) subsequently officially nominated Reber Ahmed as candidate. Parliament speaker 15 March announced election of president would take place on 26 March, however quorum was not obtained with session postponed again to 30 March; head of al-Fateh bloc Abbas al-Zamili next day reportedly said Shiite Coordination Framework would not attend session without agreement on govt formation with Tripartite Alliance that includes Sadrists, Sunni Sovereignty Alliance and KDP. Parliament 30 March failed to elect president due to lack of quorum. Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr 10 March held phone calls with top officials, including former PM and rival Nouri al-Maliki, who al-Sadr had long refused to include in govt-formation; indicated consensus govt is likely to prevail notwithstanding division between Sadrists and Framework leaders that could lead to months of wrangling. Hundreds of protesters supporting Iran-aligned groups 27 March reportedly attacked KDP’s office in capital Baghdad. Following death of ISIS leader Abu Ibrahim al-Quraishi in Syria in Feb, ISIS 10 March appointed new leader (see Syria). Meanwhile, low-scale ISIS attacks and anti-terrorism operations continued throughout month. At least four rockets attributed by military to “criminal terrorist gangs” 17 March targeted Balad airbase in Salah al-Din province. Protests erupted 9 March in south over rising food prices; notably, over 500 protesters gathered in Nasiriyah, Dhi Qar governorate.

Parliament failed to elect new president, stalling govt formation and leading country into uncharted constitutional waters, while Turkey launched new military campaign in northern Iraq. Govt formation came to unprecedented standstill after parliament 7 Feb failed to reach necessary two-thirds quorum to elect new president within constitutional deadline. Unsure of obtaining two-thirds of votes for their Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP) presidential candidate Hoshyar Zebari, tripartite alliance – comprising Sunni parties, KDP and Shiite Sadrist movement and led by Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr – boycotted session. Supreme Court 13 Feb invalidated Zebari’s candidacy over corruption charges. Fearing Sadr could form govt excluding rival Shiite Coordination Framework, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps commander 8 Feb visited Iraq to meet Sadr who maintained intention to form majority govt. Lack of precedent for deadlock fuelled uncertainty, which may eventually force new elections. In move likely to raise tensions between Baghdad and Erbil and possibly cause rift within tripartite alliance, Supreme Court 15 Feb ruled Kurdistan regional govt’s law regulating region’s independent oil industry unconstitutional. Meanwhile, Turkey early Feb launched new military campaign Operation Winter Eagle against Kurdish militants, constituting most significant escalation in airstrikes since Aug 2021. Turkish air force 1 Feb conducted over 20 airstrikes in Sinjar district, Nineveh governorate, and Makhmur district, Erbil governorate, killing ten Yazidi Resistance Units (YBS) and Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK) members. In following days, YBS protested in Sinjar, raising tensions with military who banned protests. Previously unknown Ahrar Sinjar group – likely front for pro-Iran Shiite group Asaib Ahl al-Haq – claimed 2 Feb rocket attack on Turkish military base in Sinjar. Group deemed to be front for pro-Iran faction Alwiat al-Wa’ad al-Haqq claimed responsibility for three drones target-ing United Arab Emirates on 2 Feb. In Maysan governorate, PM Al-Kadhimi 7 Feb established new operations command amid insecurity; notably, unidentified gunmen 9 Feb assassinated member of Sadrist militia Saraya al-Salam in Amara city, latest in series of killings involving Sadrists and Asaib Ahl al-Haq, raising fears of more clashes between groups. Anti-Islamic State operations continued throughout month.