Fears grew of descent into full-scale civil war as sectarian violence escalated and political negotiations over composition of new government increasingly characterised by pursuit of narrowly-defined ethnic and sectarian interests. Bombing of Shiite al-Askariya shrine in Samara 22 February set off worst sectarian violence of U.S. occupation. Massive demonstrations, reprisal attacks and suicide bombings followed; estimates put death toll at 800. Surge in violence prompted talks between Sunni and Shiite leaders who promised to work together. Shiite-led United Iraqi Alliance (UIA) sought coalition partners to form new majority government but agreement with Kurdish, Sunni Arab and secular parties remained elusive. Interim PM Jaafari selected as UIA candidate for prime minister; requires two-thirds parliamentary approval for cabinet. U.S. intensified effort to bring Sunni Arabs into political process; U.S. Ambassador Khalilzad issued thinly-veiled threat to restrict U.S. aid should new government include politicians with “sectarian agenda”.

Election results announced amid sharp escalation of violence early in month. Islamist Shiite-led United Iraqi Alliance declared winners of December parliamentary polls, but without absolute majority (128 of 275 seats); Kurdish parties won 53 seats, Islamist Sunni Arab bloc 44. International monitors declared irregularities, but said did not affect result. Security situation remained highly unstable with civilians, police and interior ministry targeted. Surge of violence killed 180 early in month, including attacks on funeral in Muqdadiya, Shiite shrine in Karbala and police recruits in western city of Ramadi. Simultaneous 19 January bombs in Baghdad killed 15 while 30 civilians shot dead by gunmen near Dujail 18 January. Italian Defence Minister Antonio Martino announced plans to withdraw Italian troops by end 2006. Saddam Hussein trial in apparent disarray after delays and walkouts by defence team.

Elections held for first full 4-year parliamentary assembly in post-Baathist era 15 December: Sunni Arab participation a very positive development, but results feared unlikely to reduce sectarian politics and violence. Unlike previous election boycotts, Sunni groups urged voting to prevent government dominated by Shiites and Kurds. Turnout estimated at 70%; observers said vote generally met international standards. Several violent incidents reported but voting not seriously disrupted. United Iraqi Alliance, collection of Islamist Shiite groups, expected to win landslide victory: results expected early January. Sunni coalition Iraqi Accord Front (second with 18.6% preliminary results in Baghdad Province) claimed election in Baghdad rigged and demanded new vote. Severe insecurity continued: 11 members of Shiite family killed south of Baghdad in largely Sunni neighbourhood; 9 killed in attempted jailbreak by suspected insurgents; suicide bomber killed 4 policemen near interior ministry 29 December. 1,724 Coalition soldiers, including 1,606 Americans, and thousands of Iraqis killed by hostile fire since declared end of combat operations 1 May 2003.

Insurgency intensified as approach of 15 December parliamentary elections prompted fears of major escalation. Wave of suicide bombings included twin blasts at Shiite mosques in Khanaqin, near Iranian border, killing 80 and car bomb outside hospital south of Baghdad killing 30. Gunmen dressed in Iraqi army uniforms shot dead prominent Sunni Arab tribal chief and 4 family members 23 November. Escalation of violence coincided with opening of preparatory Iraqi reconciliation meeting run by Arab League in Cairo. Detainee abuse scandal emerged 13 November after U.S. troops found 173 prisoners, mostly Sunni Arabs and some reportedly tortured, in bunker in interior ministry building. U.S. military forces completed 17-day counter-insurgency operation in western province of Anbar near Syrian border, which left 139 insurgents and 10 marines dead. UN Security Council voted unanimously to extend mandate of U.S.-led multinational forces to end of 2006. 1666 Coalition soldiers, including 1548 Americans, and thousands of Iraqis now killed by hostile fire since declared end of combat 1 May 2003.

Divisive constitution adopted, threatening worsening  of continued severe sectarian violence. Constitution approved in 15 October referendum after Sunni Arab opponents mustered two-thirds majority in 2, but not the necessary 3, provinces. 3 main Sunni parties set up Iraqi Accord Front coalition to contest December general election; main Shiite and Kurdish parties also agreed on own coalitions leading to likely voting on ethnic and sectarian lines. Violence escalated after largely peaceful vote: 2 suicide attacks in predominantly Kurdish northeastern city of Sulaymaniyah 25 October killed at least 9, while 31 October car bomb in Basra killed over 20. U.S. air strikes on 2 villages near Ramadi in west killed about 70 militants according to U.S. military, although eyewitnesses claimed many dead were civilians. U.S. Operation Iron Fist underway near northwest city of Qaim resulted in deaths of at least 29 militants. Trial of Saddam Hussein began 19 October charged with crimes against humanity, postponed until 28 November. U.S. military casualties particularly high in month with 92 deaths. 1,594 Coalition soldiers, including 1,477 Americans, and thousands of Iraqis killed by hostile fire since declared end of combat 1 May 2003.

Situation heading toward de facto partition and full-scale civil war. Dramatic escalation in violence throughout country as parliament signed-off on final amendments to draft constitution after rushed process deepened rifts; referendum set for 15 October. Sunni militant group “al Qaeda in Iraq” claimed increased violence in retaliation for offensive on Syria/Iraq border that killed over 140 insurgents. Wave of violence began with death of 114 in Baghdad suicide bomb 14 September, culminated in coordinated blasts in Balad north of Baghdad killing over 100 29 September; at least 400 mostly Shiites killed in month. Large areas of northwest city of Qaim taken over by insurgents while further escalation around Basra in south; 16 killed in blast 8 September; 3 British soldiers killed by separate roadside bombs; UK army forced to rescue 2 soldiers working covertly in Basra further adding to tensions. 3 Iraqi journalists and 1 Kurdish MP also killed in violence. 1,516 Coalition soldiers, including 1,401 Americans, and thousands of Iraqis killed by hostile fire since declared end of combat 1 May 2003.

Kurdish and Shiite leaders agreed draft constitution and submitted it to parliament 28 August over objections of Sunni Arab leaders, who said could provoke civil war. Contentious issues include provisions for federal system of government and exclusion of former Baath party officials from public office. Sunni Arabs fear possible creation of Shiite super-region in oil-rich south. Referendum on constitution scheduled 15 October. 100,000 supporters of radical Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr marched in 8 cities protesting constitution, while Sunnis protested in Baquba. Violent infighting between Sadr’s followers and rival Shiites 24 August killed 8. 3 Sunni political party members shot dead while putting up posters urging Sunnis to vote in October referendum. Intense violence continued across much of Iraq, targeting Iraqi police in particular. 965 Shiite pilgrims died 31 August after rumours of suicide bomber sparked stampede. U.S. launched anti-insurgent operations near Syrian border, including reported air strikes 30 August. Deadly month for U.S. military, with over 70 soldiers killed. 1,471 Coalition soldiers, including 1,359 Americans, and thousands of Iraqis killed by hostile fire since declared end of combat 1 May 2003.

Devastating violence continued as insurgent attacks appeared to be growing increasingly sophisticated. Deaths of 3 senior Sunni politicians led to 1-week boycott of constitutional drafting committee by other Sunnis: constitution due to be completed 15 August. In one of Iraq’s worst attacks to date, suicide bomber killed 98, wounded 156, in petrol tanker explosion near Shia mosque in Musayyib, south of Baghdad. Foreign diplomats also targeted: Algerian mission chief and aide, Egyptian envoy kidnapped and killed; vehicles carrying Bahraini and Pakistani diplomats attacked. Group headed by Jordanian terrorist al-Zarqawi thought responsible. Insurgents continued to target Iraqi police, soldiers and recruitment centres. Attack aimed at U.S. soldiers 13 July killed 26 children. In possible turning point for Iran-Iraq relations, Iraqi PM Jaafari led delegation to Iran. NGO estimated 24,865 Iraqi civilians killed March 2003-2005. 1,397 Coalition soldiers, including 1,285 Americans killed by hostile fire since declared end of combat 1 May 2003.

Slow but steady progress on political front overshadowed by devastating violence across Iraq, with over 1,000 people killed in last 2 months. Iraqi police and soldiers continued to be primary target of attacks. Suicide bombers killed at least 36 in Mosul 26 June, targeting police station and Iraqi army base. Days earlier, string of car bombings killed dozens in Baghdad. Growing concern in U.S. over insurgency led President Bush to address nation 28 June. U.S. Sec. Defense Donald Rumsfeld confirmed U.S. negotiating with insurgent leaders. In positive development, Sunni leaders accepted 15 seats on 71- person constitutional council due to draft permanent constitution by 15 August. But issues such as role of Islam and power of regions, coupled with requirement that constitution be approved by consensus, likely to push deliberations beyond deadline. 1,350 Coalition soldiers, including 1,241 Americans, and thousands of Iraqis killed by hostile fire since declared end of combat operations 1 May 2003.

Wave of violence killed more than 570 since 1 May. At least 20 killed in 2 separate suicide bomb attacks in predominantly Shia town of Hilla 30 May. Defence minister announced 26 May more than 40,000 Iraqi soldiers to be deployed in Baghdad in largest operation against insurgents. Joint U.S.-Iraqi operation detained 285 people in effort to halt violence; U.S. operation near Syrian border killed 125 insurgents. Sunni clerics, possibly targeted to spark sectarian violence, closed mosques in protest. Final 6 cabinet ministers appointed 8 May, though post for human rights minister remains vacant. U.S. Sec. State Condoleezza Rice visited Iraq 21 May followed by Iran’s Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi 23 May. Joint Iran-Iraq statement issued identifying Iraq as aggressor in Iran-Iraq war likely to further inflame Sunni Arab resentments. 1280 Coalition soldiers, including 1171 Americans, and thousands of Iraqis killed by hostile fire since declared end of combat operations 1 May 2003.