CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
First democratically elected government for 50 years approved by interim National Assembly - though achievement overshadowed somewhat by surge of violence and immensity of remaining political hurdles. Kurdish leader Jalal Talabani sworn in as new president; Shiite leader Ibrahim Jaafari appointed prime minister. Jaafari announced partial list of cabinet members after bitter negotiations; list approved by National Assembly 28 April, remaining 7 positions to be filled before 7 May constitutional deadline for forming government. Delay caused in part due to reported deadlock with interim PM Allawi over distribution of ministries, and efforts by some Kurdish leaders to force out Jaafari. Amid political uncertainty, violence surged in April after relative lull since 30 January elections. Militants increasingly targeting Iraqi civilians and police. Coordinated blasts in Baghdad and southern town of Maidan 29 April killed at least 17; car bomb at Shiite mosque in Baghdad 22 April killed 11; bombs in Tikrit and Shiite neighbourhood of western Baghdad 24 April killed at least 36. Female MP Lamia Abed Khadouri shot dead 27 April. 1,213 Coalition soldiers, including 1,106 Americans, and thousands of Iraqis killed by hostile fire since declared end of combat operations 1 May 2003.
Following historic swearing-in of 275 members of Transitional National Assembly 16 March, Shiite United Iraqi Alliance and Kurdish parties began heated negotiations to decide composition of transitional government. Distribution of key posts, inclusion of Sunni Arabs, and role of Islam main obstacles; decision on status of oil-rich Kirkuk deferred till later. Insurgency continued with assassinations of security officials, and number of larger attacks: 47 died in Sunni bombing of Shiite funeral Mosul; car bombings 25 March in Ramadi and Iskandariya killed 15. Dozens of insurgents killed in shoot-outs with Iraqi and U.S. forces; raid on insurgent training camp near Tikrit 23 March led to death of 85 militants. Netherlands began troop withdrawal and Ukraine began reductions. Italy mooted September withdrawal in wake of protests over death of Italian agent, shot accidentally by U.S. forces while escorting released Italian hostage. 1,166 Coalition soldiers, including 1,059 Americans, and thousands of Iraqis killed by hostile fire since declared end of combat operations 1 May 2003.
Continuing major violence - with suicide car bombing killing at least 125 in Hilla 28 February - overshadowed positive political developments. Candidates manoeuvred for top jobs in transitional government as final elections results released: United Iraqi Alliance (Shiite list) won 140 seats in 275-seat transitional assembly; Kurdish Alliance 75 seats; Iraqi List (led by interim PM Ayad Allawi) 40 seats. UIA nominated Ibrahim Jaafari, political pragmatist but religious conservative, to be PM, most powerful post in new government. Allawi said would form coalition to challenge Jaafari. Meanwhile, violence continued, with Shiite worshippers targeted by multiple bombings in Baghdad on eve of holy day of Ashoura, killing 36. Elsewhere, U.S. launched offensive against militant strongholds in western province of Anbar. 1,134 Coalition soldiers, including 1,029 Americans, and thousands of Iraqis killed by hostile fire since declared end of combat operations on 1 May 2003.
Elections successful to extent turnout good in Kurdish north, Shiite south and higher than expected in Baghdad and - from anecdotal evidence - some Sunni Arab areas (preliminary estimates put nationwide figure at around 57%), but general Sunni Arab participation low. Challenge now seen as embracing Sunni Arab minority in government and constitution- making process. Elections took place amid severe violence, with steady attacks across Iraq in weeks leading up to vote, and suicide bombs and mortars killing at least 37 on 30 January election day. Security fears had forced officials to hold off publishing candidate names until just days before election. Crash of British C-130 killed 10 Britons; militant group claimed to have downed plane. Thirty-one U.S. troops died 26 January in helicopter crash caused by bad weather. 1,091 Coalition soldiers, including 986 Americans, and thousands of Iraqis killed by hostile fire since declared end of combat operations on 1 May 2003.
Violence surged toward end December as January elections drew nearer. Suicide bomber killed 22, including 18 Americans, in 21 December attack on U.S. army base Mosul. Two days earlier, twin suicide attacks in holy Shiite cities of Najaf and Karbala killed 60, while in Baghdad 3 Iraqi election workers dragged from car and executed in broad daylight. Campaigning for 30 January elections officially began 15 December: 22 Shiite political parties announced broad-based coalition backed by leading cleric Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. Coalition to run 228 candidates under banner of United Iraqi Alliance. Predicting Sunni Arab absence from polls, Iraqi Islamic Party withdrew from elections process, joining other Sunni Arab parties. French journalists Christian Chesnot and Georges Malbrunot freed after 4 months in captivity. 1,018 Coalition soldiers, including 933 Americans, and thousands of Iraqis killed by hostile fire since declared end of combat operations on 1 May 2003.
Iraqi electoral commission set 30 January as date for nation-wide elections, despite continuing concern that postponement may be necessary to ensure effective representation of Sunni Arab Muslims. Head of UN electoral team said approximately 90 of 540 voter registration centres had to be shut due to security threats, particularly in Sunni Arab-dominated areas. Two-day conference of world leaders Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, concluded with communiqué backing 30 January date. Meanwhile, U.S. invasion of Fallujah, launched 8 November, brought city largely under control of U.S. and Iraqi government forces, but wave of attacks in central Iraq and northern city of Mosul cast doubt on claims insurgency significantly weakened as result. U.S. said over 50 troops and approximately 1,600 insurgents died in invasion. Paris Club of creditor nations agreed to forgive 80% of Iraq’s multibillion dollar debt. 957 Coalition soldiers, including 872 Americans, and thousands of Iraqis killed by hostile fire since declared end of combat operations on 1 May 2003.
Uncertainty surrounding January elections continued amid spiralling violence. Rebel control of Fallujah, Ramadi, and other towns cast doubt on possibility of nation-wide vote, while potential boycott by Sunni groups threatened to further jeopardise election’s legitimacy. UN Secretary-General Annan said Iraq on track for elections if security situation holds; but in response to Iraqi requests for increased UN election-monitoring presence, said could not bolster civilian staff without more troops to protect UN workers. U.S. said to be planning troop increase ahead of elections. U.S. also reportedly preparing major offensive against Fallujah, despite threat from Sunni clerics to boycott election if town invaded. Security situation remains fragile: twin bombings killed 10 inside heavily guarded Baghdad Green Zone 14 October; 49 Iraqi National Guard troops massacred by gunmen 23 October; car bomb near Fallujah 30 October killed 8 U.S. Marines. CARE suspended operations after director Margaret Hassan kidnapped 19 October. 832 Coalition soldiers, including 750 Americans, and thousands of Iraqis killed by hostile fire since declared end of combat operations on 1 May 2003. American research group estimated 100,000 Iraqi civilians killed since 2003 invasion.
Increasing concern that high level of violence – “getting worse” according to U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell – will make January elections impossible, particularly in so-called no- go areas controlled mainly by Sunni rebels. UN Secretary General Kofi Annan voiced doubts credible election could be held; U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld suggested partial vote may be necessary. Bush administration officials mooted possibility of autumn conference on elections. Insurgency spread to heart of Baghdad; 30 September blasts killed at least 41, mostly children. Daily kidnappings and killings continued, as did clashes in Baghdad suburb of Sadr City between U.S. forces and Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr’s militia. U.S. raid on Samarra 30 September killed 94 insurgents; strikes on Fallujah 24-25 September killed 15 in reported attempt to target followers of Jordanian terrorist Abu Musab al- Zarqawi. NATO agreed to establish training facility in Iraq, but France, Germany, Spain and Belgium refused to contribute. 772 Coalition soldiers, including 693 Americans, and thousands of Iraqis killed by hostile fire since declared end of combat operations on 1 May 2003.
Top Shiite cleric Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, returning to Iraq after surgery in London, brokered new ceasefire 27 August between U.S. forces and followers of radical cleric Moqtada al- Sadr. Previous ceasefire ended 5 August, with sides blaming each other for breakdown. Fierce fighting between Sadr’s Mahdi Army and U.S. forces raged throughout month in Najaf, with militants concentrating in and around holy shrine of Imam Ali and suffering heavy losses. In Baghdad, after intense debate and backroom deal-making, National Conference selected 100-member Consultative Assembly. Many delegates – particularly independents and representatives of small parties – complained selection process undemocratic. Assembly to oversee interim government until scheduled January 2005 elections. Security situation across Iraq remained poor, with attacks on oil pipelines in south, abduction of 2 French journalists, and killing of 12 Nepalese hostages. 698 Coalition soldiers, including 624 Americans, and thousands of Iraqis killed by hostile fire since declared end of combat operations on 1 May 2003.
Under pressure from UN, 3-day National Conference postponed to mid-August in effort to draw more representative range of delegates and improve security preparations. Several key factions, including that of Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, threatened boycott. Conference to bring together 1,000 delegates to select 100-member National Council, designed to check power of interim government until scheduled January 2005 elections. Insecurity across much of Iraq continued. Over 100 killed 28 July in multiple attacks, including suicide bombing in Baquba, northeast of Baghdad, that left at least 70 dead. Insurgents increasingly relying on hostage-taking as terror tactic: Philippine government ordered early troop withdrawal to secure release of kidnapped Filipino, drawing U.S. and Australian criticism. NATO announced vague training mission for Iraqi military personnel 30 July. 635 Coalition soliders, including 539 Americans, and thousands of Iraqis killed by hostile fire since declared end of combat operations on 1 May 2003.
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