Federal govt continued to pressure Kurdistan Regional Govt (KRG) after seizing Kirkuk and other disputed areas in Oct. Kurdish President Barzani resigned 1 Nov under pressure from domestic Kurdish opposition. Federal govt 1 Nov threatened to resume military operations to capture Kurdish-held areas along borders with Syria, Turkey and Iran if Kurds did not hand them over; 2 Nov announced plans to place all oil exports from Kurdish area and Kirkuk province to Turkey under control of federal-run oil company; 6 Nov proposed reducing KRG’s share of federal budget from 17% to 12.6% based on population size; and reiterated refusal to enter political negotiations unless KRG rescinds 25 Sept independence referendum result. Supreme Court 20 Nov declared referendum unconstitutional and its result void. State security forces and Shia Popular Mobilisation Units (PMU) continued to make gains against Islamic State (ISIS), retaking al-Qaim 3 Nov and Rawa 17 Nov both in Anbar province near Syrian border. PM Abadi 21 Nov said ISIS had been militarily defeated in Iraq with just remnants in desert; army and PMUs 23 Nov began operation to clear remaining fighters in desert areas along border with Syria. Suicide lorry bombing 20 Nov killed at least 23 people in city of Tuz Khormato, 190km north of Baghdad; attack unclaimed. Turkey claimed that its 27 Nov airstrike in northern Iraq killed 80 militants reportedly belonging to Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

Following Iraqi Kurdistan’s independence referendum 25 Sept, govt forces and allied militias 16 Oct advanced on Kurdish-held Kirkuk and nearby oil facilities and military installations in area contested between Baghdad and Erbil; Kurdish forces withdrew largely without fighting. In north, Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP) forces 17 Oct retreated from other disputed areas in Nineveh province, seized after army’s 2014 collapse before Islamic State’s (ISIS) advance. Iran reportedly closed land border with Kurdish region before offensive on Kirkuk. Turkey 16 Oct closed its airspace to flights to and from Iraqi Kurdistan, and 17 Oct welcomed govt’s capture of Kirkuk. PM Abadi 18 Oct ordered govt-aligned Shiite Popular Mobilisation Unit (PMU) militiamen, who took part in assault, to withdraw from Kirkuk and other disputed areas following Kurdish protests against their presence. Kurdistan Regional Govt (KRG) 19 Oct accepted Abadi’s call for dialogue and 25 Oct offered to suspend push for independence. Kurdistan region’s election commission 18 Oct postponed presidential and legislative votes previously planned for 1 Nov without setting new date, and Kurdish opposition party Gorran 22 Oct demanded KRG President Barzani resign for bringing “disaster to the Kurdish people”. Barzani 29 Oct said he would step down as president 1 Nov and asked Kurdistan region’s MPs to fill power vacuum. Kurdish parties in opposition to Barzani said their offices had been looted or burnt night of 29-30 Oct. Turkish PM 31 Oct said Iraqi federal troops had deployed to border crossing between Turkey and Kurdish region. KRG 31 Oct reportedly proposed deal to Baghdad, including ceasefire and joint Kurdish and federal troop deployments to disputed areas and on border with Turkey. Referring to Shia PMU forces, U.S. Sec State Tillerson 22 Oct said after meeting Abadi that “Iranian militias” in Iraq should “go home” now ISIS almost defeated; govt said PMU forces are part of Iraq’s institutions and “should be encouraged”. Military 5 Oct said govt and PMU forces had retaken from ISIS Hawija in north 66km west of Kirkuk. Iraqi forces 26 Oct launched assault against ISIS-held territory along Syrian border in west.

Tensions rose between Iraqi Kurdistan and central govt in Baghdad over 25 Sept Iraqi Kurdistan independence referendum. Despite opposition from U.S., UK, UN, Turkey, Iran and Syria, Iraqi Kurdistan President Barzani 12 Sept said referendum on independence would take place in governorates of Iraqi Kurdistan (Erbil, Sulaimaniya and Dohuk) and territories disputed with Baghdad. Parliament in Baghdad 12 Sept declared referendum “unconstitutional” and authorised PM Abadi to “take all measures” to preserve country’s unity; parliament 14 Sept voted to dismiss Kirkuk governor for endorsing referendum, Kirkuk governor challenged validity of dismissal. Kurdistan parliament 15 Sept convened for first time in nearly two years and voted in favour of holding referendum; opposition parties Gorran Movement and Kurdistan Islamic Group (Komal) boycotted session. Supreme Court 18 Sept ordered suspension of referendum which it claimed was unconstitutional. At Baghdad’s request, Iran 24 Sept halted flights between Iran and Iraqi Kurdistan. Referendum held 25 Sept as planned; over 92% voted in favour of independence. Baghdad 27 Sept began ban on international flights in and out of Iraqi Kurdistan. Abadi 1 Sept announced end of ten-day battle to retake Tal Afar from Islamic State (ISIS) in north west. Military 16 Sept began offensive to dislodge ISIS forces from Akashat region on Syrian border. In Thi Qar province in south, ISIS-claimed shooting and suicide bombing near Nasiriyah 14 Sept left at least 80 dead. UNSC 21 Sept authorised probe into ISIS’s alleged war crimes in Iraq.

Security forces 20 Aug launched offensive to recapture Tal Afar in north west from Islamic State (ISIS); Shia Popular Mobilisation Units (PMU) and Kurdish peshmerga also took part. U.S.-led coalition carried out dozens of airstrikes on Tal Afar ahead of offensive. Prime Minister Abadi 31 Aug declared Tal Afar and Nineveh province “liberated”, though clashes reported in al-Ayadiya, 11km north west of Tal Afar, after declaration. Two U.S. soldiers killed and five wounded east of Tal Afar 13 Aug in explosion that ISIS claimed it caused with rocket attack; Pentagon next day said U.S. artillery’s “mishap” caused deaths, denying ISIS involvement. Five suicide bombers 16 Aug killed seven security personnel in Baiji, 175km south east of Tal Afar; attack unclaimed. Car bomb claimed by ISIS killed twelve people 28 Aug in market in eastern Baghdad. U.S. Sec State Tillerson 10 Aug asked Kurdistan Regional Govt (KRG) to postpone independence referendum pencilled for 25 Sept, due to fears vote will increase tensions with Baghdad and distract from fight against ISIS; Turkish foreign minister 16 Aug warned independence vote could precipitate civil war. U.S. Sec Defence reiterated request to delay vote in meeting with KRG President Barzani in Erbil 22 Aug; senior Kurdish security official and KRG president’s son Masrour Barzani afterwards said vote would proceed as planned. President Barzani said in interview published 30 Aug Kurdistan could postpone referendum if Baghdad and international community guarantee to recognise result. Main border crossing with Jordan at Tureibil reopened 30 Aug.

PM Abadi announced victory over Islamic State (ISIS) in Mosul in north 10 July after weeks of heavy fighting to recapture western half, though small-scale clashes between U.S.-backed govt forces and ISIS continued in city in following days. Fighting continued around Mosul: ISIS captured Imam Gharbi village 70km south of Mosul 5 July, retaken by govt forces 20 July; govt forces 11 July repelled ISIS attack on nearby al-Jaran village. Govt-backed forces 11 July also repelled ISIS attack on Hatra city 110km SW of Mosul. ISIS killed 30 civilians in Hawija district, Kirkuk province in centre north 18 July. Abadi rejected rights groups’ allegations of abuses by govt-backed forces 12 July, day after footage emerged online appearing to show security forces beating and summarily executing detainees in Mosul. German Chancellor Merkel 19 July urged Abadi to investigate alleged abuses by govt-backed forces during and after operation to retake Mosul.

U.S.-backed govt forces and allied militias continued to make gains in campaign to retake western half of Mosul in north from Islamic State (ISIS). Govt forces 18 June seized al-Shifaa district in western Mosul, 26 June pushed into ISIS stronghold in old city, 29 June took control of al-Nuri mosque where ISIS declared Caliphate in 2014. PM Abadi same day declared end of ISIS’s “state of falsehood” though fighting continued end-month. Three ISIS suicide bombers 23 June killed at least three people in eastern half of Mosul. UN 8 June reported “significant escalation” in civilian deaths in Mosul, said ISIS killed over 200 people early June. In north west, govt-allied Shia Popular Mobilisation Units (PMUs) early June seized from ISIS Umm Jaris at border with Syria, continued to advance south west of Qayrawan and took Baaj 4 June. ISIS-claimed suicide bombing 9 June killed at least twenty people in Musayyib market, 60km south of Baghdad. Baghdad 9 June rejected 7 June decision by Kurdistan Regional Govt (KRG) to hold referendum on independence of Iraqi Kurdistan 25 Sept. Syrian delegation 15 June in Baghdad discussed border security cooperation and intelligence sharing with army chief of staff.

U.S.-backed govt forces and allied militias continued to make gains in campaign to retake western half of Mosul in north from Islamic State (ISIS). In north-western Mosul, govt forces 14 May took control of Ureibi and Rifaie districts and 27 May launched offensive on al-Shifaa, al-Zinjili and Al-Saha al-Oula neighbourhoods. ISIS mid-month had reportedly lost control of all but 9% of western half. ISIS early month claimed two suicide bombings and several more attempted suicide attacks against K1 military base hosting U.S. advisers in Kirkuk, 150km south east of Mosul. In north west Popular Mobilisation Units (PMUs) 14 May pushed west from Tal Afar airport, took control of road connecting Sinjar to Qairawan and leading to ISIS-held town Baadj near Syrian border, 29 May reportedly took control of several villages along border. Faced with PMUs’ expansion, Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) President Barzani 15 May discussed military coordination with Iraqi national security adviser and PMU leader Faleh al-Fayyad; 30 May said peshmerga forces would not withdraw from areas outside Iraqi Kurdistan secured before start of Mosul offensive in Oct 2016. ISIS claimed multiple bombings in Baghdad: suicide bombings killed nineteen people in southern districts 19 May and at least sixteen people in Shiite district Karrada 30 May. Unclaimed bombing killed eleven people on al-Shahada bridge in Baghdad 30 May. Unidentified attackers 2 May killed at least ten soldiers near Rutba in Anbar province in west. Unclaimed bombings killed 33 people at checkpoints near oil fields in Basra province in south east 19 May.

U.S.-backed govt forces and allied militias made small advances against Islamic State (ISIS) in western part of Mosul in north; govt forces 18 April said they had retaken twelve of Mosul’s twenty districts, 20 April declared al-Thawra and Nasr neighbourhoods “liberated”, army chief of staff 30 April said he expected to completely dislodge ISIS from Mosul in May. Govt-allied Shia Popular Mobilisation Units (PMUs) 27 April captured Hatra province in north, blocking ISIS’s routes between Iraq and Syria. ISIS launched several suicide attacks targeting police in north, 4-5 April killed at least 31 people including fourteen police in Tikrit 170km north of Baghdad, 23 April killed three police in Hamam al-Alil 30km south of Mosul. Tensions between Baghdad and Erbil-based Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) rose early April: governor of Kirkuk city (not in Kurdistan Region, KRI) late March ordered Kurdish flags to be raised on government buildings in city alongside Iraqi flags; Baghdad parliament 1 April condemned decision. Kurdish-dominated Kirkuk Provincial Council 4 April said that Baghdad should commit to organising referendum, in accordance with constitution, on whether Kirkuk province should be part of KRI; Turkmen and Arab councillors reportedly boycotted vote. Main Kurdish parties Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) 6 April agreed that Iraqi Kurdistan should hold referendum on its self-determination before end of 2017; PM Abadi and ruling Shiite coalition condemned decision. Turkey 25 April apologised after it “mistakenly” killed five KRG peshmerga fighters in strikes on Sinjar in NW, said it killed fourteen members of Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in north 29 April, six around Sinat-Haftan and eight around Adiyaman (see Turkey).

U.S.-backed govt forces and allied militias continued to make gains in campaign to retake western half of Mosul in north from Islamic State (ISIS). Govt forces 6 March said they had captured “al Hurriya” bridge that leads to ISIS-held city centre, and 12 March said they had retaken seventeen of 40 districts in western half from ISIS and surrounded remainder. Govt forces 14 March killed ISIS commander of Old City, Abdul Rahman al-Ansary, and 18 March captured two additional neighbourhoods al-Kur and al-Tawafa. ISIS fighters 20 March captured nine govt officers in western Mosul. U.S. airstrike in western Mosul 17 March reportedly killed over 150 civilians. Iraqi ambassador to UN 10 March denied reports by medical workers and World Health Organisation that ISIS had likely used chemical weapons in Mosul, said “really no evidence”. Govt airstrike 31 March reportedly killed several ISIS commanders in al-Qaim, W Anbar province, including Ayad al-Jumaili believed to be second-in-command. Unclaimed bombings 9 March killed at least 26 people in village 20km north of Tikrit in centre, 20 March killed 21 people in Baghdad’s Shiite Hay al-Amel suburb and 29 March killed seventeen people at police checkpoint in southern Baghdad. Intra-Kurdish tensions rose sharply in Sinjar in NW as relations between Turkey-backed Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and Iran-backed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) continued to deteriorate: KDP-trained Syrian peshmerga forces 3 March tried to expel PKK-affiliated Sinjar Resistance Units (YBS) from Sinjar, seven people killed; 14 March killed one woman at anti-KDP protest organised by PKK-affiliated factions in neighbouring Khanasor district. In show of force against KDP, Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) party early March tried to seize KDP-affiliated North Gas Company refinery in NW. Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr 24 March said he would call for boycott of elections unless electoral law is changed; provincial elections are planned for later in 2017.

PM Abadi 19 Feb said U.S.-backed govt forces and allied militias starting campaign to retake western half of Mosul in north from Islamic State (IS). Fighting continued south of Mosul: govt forces 19 Feb said they had seized seventeen villages from IS around Mosul airport (30km south of Mosul), allegedly cutting one of IS’s supply and escape routes, between Mosul and Tal Afar (75km west); govt forces 23 Feb took Mosul airport and Ghazlani military base from IS, 24 Feb pushed into south-eastern districts. Shia Popular Mobilisation Units (PMUs) 19 Feb pushed back IS SW of Tal Afar, seized several villages. IS claimed twin suicide bombings 10 Feb that killed fourteen in Zuhour district, eastern Mosul, retaken from IS over two months previously. Army 27 Feb said security forces had seized al-Jawsaq district in western half of Mosul and fourth bridge across Tigris River. One Kurdish soldier killed 25 Feb in unclaimed bombing of pipeline in Bai Hassan oil field near Kirkuk. IS claimed multiple bombings mid-Feb in Baghdad’s Shia districts: blasts in Bayaa district 14 and 16 Feb killed 58, suicide bomber 15 Feb killed fifteen near Sadr City district. Police 11 Feb crushed protests in Baghdad called by Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr to demand overhaul of election commission, which Sadr supporters believe would favour former PM Maliki in provincial elections scheduled for Sept; five protesters and two policemen reportedly killed. Unclaimed rocket attacks targeting Green Zone in Baghdad later same day caused no casualties. Unclaimed bombing in S Baghdad 27 Feb reportedly killed three civilians.