CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Middle East & North Africa

Saudi Arabia

After several quiet weeks, fighting intensified mid-Jan between Saudi-led coalition and Huthi forces in northern Yemen and across Yemen-Saudi border, raising risk of further escalation in Feb; Saudi mediators persuaded Yemeni govt and southern separatists to agree on new roadmap for implementing Nov 2019 Riyadh Agreement; and Saudi Arabia sought to calm U.S.-Iran tensions following U.S.’s killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani. Cross-border violence between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Huthis reduced early Jan but, as de-escalation talks stalled, fighting escalated mid-Jan, including Saudi airstrikes on Huthi positions and Huthi attacks on Saudi positions. Following failure of Yemeni govt and separatist Southern Transitional Council to fully implement 5 Nov Riyadh Agreement within 90-day timeframe, Saudi officials 9 Jan oversaw agreement on “Phase 2” implementation plan; plan tasks Saudi military officials with moving rival groups’ heavy weapons in Aden to Saudi-controlled base in city. After U.S.’s 3 Jan strike that killed Soleimani, govt 5 Jan said U.S. had not consulted it beforehand and FM Jubeir 6 Jan called for restraint and de-escalation of regional tensions.

Middle East & North Africa

Saudi Arabia

Govt continued efforts to de-escalate its conflict with Huthi rebels in Yemen and implement agreement between Yemeni govt and Yemen’s southern separatists. Saudi-led coalition continued informal talks with Huthi rebels on de-escalation measures. Govt accused Huthi rebels of attack on medical facility in Saudi city of Jizan in south 10 Dec, which caused no casualties; Huthis denied attack, but claimed 27 Dec strike on local military headquarters in Najran (see Yemen). Saudi-led coalition continued to oversee implementation of Riyadh Agreement struck in Nov between Yemeni govt and southern separatists. Ceasefire held in south, but other key aspects of agreement remain unimplemented (see Yemen). At annual Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit in capital Riyadh 10 Dec, members committed to enhancing security cooperation while taking steps to establish financial and monetary unity by 2025, but made no breakthrough on resolving dispute between Saudi-led bloc and Qatar. Govt 1 Dec assumed presidency of G20 forum, becoming first Arab state to lead group. Saudi Aramco oil and gas company 11 Dec began trading on Saudi stock exchange following initial public offering (IPO); IPO raised $25.6bn, with total company valuation at $1.7tn.

Middle East & North Africa

Saudi Arabia

Govt reduced airstrikes in Huthi-controlled areas in Yemen and mediated signing of agreement between Yemeni govt and southern separatists, also took limited steps toward reducing tensions with Qatar. Huthi forces in Yemen continued to refrain from further strikes into Saudi Arabia as indirect talks continued and UN Envoy Martin Griffiths 22 Nov reported 80% reduction in Saudi airstrikes in Yemen in previous two weeks. Huthi forces 17 Nov seized one Saudi and two South Korean vessels off Yemeni coast; 19 Nov announced release of vessels and crews. In response to Huthi strikes on coalition locations in Mokha 24 Nov, Saudi-led coalition airstrikes in Ras Isa port in Hodeida province 25 Nov killed unknown number of Huthis. Saudi-led coalition 26 Nov said it was releasing 200 Huthi prisoners and reducing restrictions on Yemeni air space to enable medical evacuations from Huthi-controlled capital Sanaa; International Committee of the Red Cross 28 Nov announced successful repatriation of 128 Huthi detainees from Saudi Arabia to Sanaa. Following Saudi-led mediation between Yemeni govt and United Arab Emirates (UAE)-backed southern separatists, two sides signed Riyadh Agreement in Saudi capital 5 Nov; after signing ceremony Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said agreement “will open ... broader talks between Yemeni parties to reach a political solution and end the war”. Following UAE’s complete withdrawal from Aden late Oct, several thousand Saudi troops entered city, taking control of main coalition base, Aden port and airport. Govt sent players to Gulf Cup football tournament in Qatar to run 24 Nov-8 Dec, which it had previously planned to boycott. Saudi Aramco oil and gas company 3 Nov said it would go ahead with initial public offering in Dec with company valued at estimated $1.6-$1.7 trillion.

Middle East & North Africa

Saudi Arabia

Tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran eased partly thanks to third-party intervention by Iraq and Pakistan, and Saudi airstrikes against Huthis in Yemen reduced in intensity and scope. With Riyadh’s blessing, Iraq reportedly engaged Iran to reduce Saudi-Iran tensions. Pakistani PM Khan visited Iran and Saudi Arabia, 13 and 15 Oct respectively, in bid to ease tensions. FM Jubeir 21 Oct denied mediation efforts. Following 14 Sept suspected Iranian attacks on Saudi oil facilities, U.S. 11 Oct announced deployment of 3,000 military personnel and two Patriot missile batteries to Saudi Arabia. Govt 13 Oct denied involvement in 11 Oct attack on Iranian tanker in Red Sea off Saudi coast. Iranian official 31 Oct announced Saudi Arabia had released nineteen Iranian fishermen, eleven detained since Dec 2018, eight since Jan. Following Huthis’ 20 Sept unilateral cessation of cross-border attacks into Saudi Arabia, Saudi airstrikes on Huthi-controlled territory reduced in frequency and geographic scope. Govt continued to mediate talks between Yemeni govt and United Arab Emirates-backed southern separatists in Jeddah and Riyadh; both sides closed in on agreement to form new, more inclusive govt and end hostilities in south (see Yemen). Russian President Putin 14 Oct visited Saudi Arabia for first time in twelve years; he discussed regional security with King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman while trade delegates signed economic agreements worth $2bn.

Middle East & North Africa

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia and U.S. held Iran responsible for 14 Sept aerial attacks on oil facilities in east, which initially nearly halved oil production, causing sharp rise in tensions and raising risk of confrontation between Saudi Arabia and/or U.S. and Iran or its allies in coming weeks. Cross-border attacks between Huthis and Saudi Arabia could intensify in Oct if Huthis’ offer of unilateral suspension of attacks fails to produce mutual de-escalation agreement. Govt said drones and missile debris indicate Iranian-made technology and held Iran responsible, but did not echo U.S. claim that attacks were launched from Iran. Tehran denied responsibility. Govt 16 Sept invited UN experts to view oil facilities and said it would “take the appropriate measures” based on findings; experts began investigation in country 20 Sept. Govt 18 Sept joined U.S.-led initiative to secure Gulf waters called International Maritime Security Construct. Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman 18 Sept met U.S. Sec State Pompeo in Saudi city of Jeddah to discuss response to crisis; Pompeo described attacks as “act of war”. U.S. 20 Sept said it would deploy additional troops and military equipment to Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE) in response to countries’ requests for assistance with air and missile defence systems. In Jeddah in south, Saudi-backed Yemeni govt and Yemen’s UAE-aligned southern separatist group Southern Transitional Council (STC) 4 Sept onward held indirect talks aimed at power-sharing agreement to end fighting, no outcome end-month. Yemen’s Huthis 18 Sept said they would cease attacks into Saudi Arabia; Saudi govt 27 Sept agreed to partial ceasefire in four Yemeni provinces including Huthi-controlled capital Sanaa. Huthis 29 Sept claimed that their 25 Aug cross-border offensive in Najran province, Saudi Arabia killed hundreds of Saudi soldiers and captured “thousands”; Saudi Arabia and Yemeni govt denied claim.

Middle East & North Africa

Saudi Arabia

Govt sought to end hostilities between its allies in Yemen after United Arab Emirates (UAE)-backed southern separatists took Aden from Hadi govt, both nominally part of Saudi-led coalition opposed to Yemen’s Huthis; fighting raised tensions between UAE and Saudi Arabia, which remains opposed to Yemen’s partition. In Yemen, UAE-backed southern secessionists Southern Transitional Council (STC) 7-10 Aug seized control of provisional capital Aden and expelled pro-govt forces, including armed groups closely associated with Islamist Islah party (see Yemen). High-level delegations from Saudi Arabia and UAE, including Saudi King Salman and UAE Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed, met in Saudi city of Mecca 12 Aug and jointly called for parties to “prioritise dialogue and reason in interest of Yemen”. Saudi Arabia same day called for emergency summit on Yemen’s southern conflict in Jeddah. Saudi and UAE FMs 26 Aug issued joint statement reaffirming coalition’s support to Hadi govt while condemning “defamation” of UAE. Huthis continued to launch attacks into Saudi territory: drones 9 Aug targeted Abha airport, inflicting no major damage; 17 Aug hit and started fire at Shaybah oil field near UAE border, prompting coalition to carry out apparently retaliatory airstrikes around Sanaa same day and around Saada 20 Aug. FM Jubeir and Minister of State for African Affairs Ahmed Qattan 17 Aug attended signing of Sudan’s transitional govt agreement in Sudanese capital Khartoum; Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman next day called Ethiopian PM Abiy and AU Chairperson Moussa Faki to congratulate them for successful mediation. Authorities 16 Aug said they had identified 3.67mn people in Saudi Arabia lacking proper documentation, mostly Ethiopians and Yemenis, and would soon deport nearly 1 million.

Middle East & North Africa

Saudi Arabia

Govt maintained hard line against Yemen’s Huthi rebels, whom it considers Iranian proxies, and encouraged Sudanese military and opposition to engage in talks aimed at political transition. Yemen’s Huthi movement continued attacks into southern Saudi Arabia, but govt reported no casualties or major damage. Saudi-led coalition fighting Huthis in Yemen 8 July accused Huthis of “strong” ties to al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. Same day, govt said Huthi-operated “booby-trapped boat” sought to damage commercial ship in Red Sea, but no other sources confirmed reporting. Following visit to capital Riyadh by U.S. Envoy to Sudan Donald Booth late June, govt and United Arab Emirates (UAE) early July encouraged leaders of Sudan’s Transitional Military Council and protest movement to engage in talks mediated by African Union and Ethiopia; Saudi and Emirati leaders expressed optimism about 17 July agreement between parties (see Sudan). U.S. Congress 17 July passed three resolutions aimed at blocking U.S. arms sales to Saudi Arabia and UAE without congressional approval. U.S. President Trump 25 July vetoed all three resolutions saying they would “weaken America’s global competitiveness”; senators voting to override presidential veto 30 July numbered less than necessary two-thirds majority.

Middle East & North Africa

Saudi Arabia

As tensions continued to rise between U.S. and Gulf states on one hand and Iran and its regional allies on other, Huthi forces in Yemen increased pace of cross-border attacks into Saudi Arabia, including on infrastructure; Saudi followed with higher-intensity bombings in Yemen, especially in capital Sanaa, raising risk of further escalation in July. Huthis launched missile and drone strikes on Abha and Najran airports in Saudi Arabia, attacking Abha airport 12, 14, 15 and 23 June. Govt officials described Huthis as Iran-backed terrorists and U.S. framed Huthi cross-border attacks as part of Iranian regional campaign against Saudi and U.S. interests (see Iran). Quad comprising Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), UK and U.S. 22 June expressed concern over “escalating tensions in the region and the dangers posed by Iranian destabilising activity to peace and security both in Yemen and the broader region”. After Sudanese security forces 3 June attacked protesters in Sudanese capital Khartoum, U.S. official next day called Saudi and UAE govts which support Sudan’s military leadership; both released statements regretting violence and urging military to reopen talks with protesters.

Middle East & North Africa

Saudi Arabia

Tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran escalated with govt blaming Iran for Huthi-claimed attacks on its territory. Unidentified attackers 12 May damaged four oil tankers (two Saudi, one Emirati, one Norwegian) near Fujairah port in United Arab Emirates (UAE). UAE refrained from attributing blame and opened joint investigation with U.S., France and Norway. U.S. defence officials 24 May said Iran was responsible for attacks. Huthis in Yemen claimed responsibility for drone attack 14 May on state oil company Aramco pipeline in centre of country as response to Saudi-led coalition “aggression” in Yemen; attacks caused company to temporarily close pipeline. Saudi officials 17 May blamed Huthis and accused Iran of guiding Huthi actions. Saudi-led coalition 16 May launched airstrikes in Sanaa in apparent retaliation, with humanitarian agencies reporting at least six civilians killed. FM al-Jubeir 19 May said govt did not want war but would not allow Iran to “continue its hostile policies”. U.S.’s Bahrain-based Fifth Fleet 18 May said it had begun “enhanced security patrols” around Arabian Peninsula. State media 20 May reported security forces intercepted two “Huthi ballistic missiles” over Taif targeting Jeddah and Mecca; Huthis denied cities were targets. Huthis 21 May claimed they had launched drone attack on arms depot at Najran airport, but coalition spokesman said Huthis targeted civilian site. King Salman late May convened emergency meetings of Gulf Cooperation Council and Arab League in Mecca to address what he called Iranian “escalations” and other regional issues. Govt 22 May said it would take part in U.S.-led Palestine investment meeting to be held 25-26 June in Manama, Bahrain, as part of upcoming U.S.-developed Israeli-Palestinian peace plan. Govt 19 May said it had deposited $250mn into Sudan’s central bank, following UAE deposit of same amount in April.

Middle East & North Africa

Saudi Arabia

37 citizens, including many from Shia community, executed 23 April for terrorism-related crimes, largest number of executions in one day since Jan 2016. NGO Human Rights Watch 24 April reported convictions relied on confessions extracted through torture; UK 24 April condemned “repulsive” mass executions; U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom 26 April said U.S. must stop giving Saudi govt “free pass”. Yemen-based al-Qaeda affiliate 26 April promised to retaliate for executions, indicating presence of some Sunni militants among convicted. U.S. Congress 5 April passed bipartisan War Powers Resolution that would withdraw U.S. support to Saudi-led coalition in Yemen, U.S. President Trump vetoed bill 16 April. Five days after Sudanese President Bashir ousted 11 April, high-level joint delegation from Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE) 16 April met Sudanese Transitional Military Council (TMC) in Sudan, TMC praised Sudan’s “distinguished ties” with both countries; Saudi Arabia and UAE 21 April said they would give Sudan aid worth $3bn ($500mn in central bank and $2.5bn worth of food, medicine and fuel).

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