Secessionist Southern Transitional Council (STC) announced autonomous self-administration in south Yemen after weeks of rising tensions with govt forces, increasing likelihood of renewed violence in south and placing Nov 2019 Riyadh Agreement, and efforts to broker a nationwide political settlement to end the war, in peril. Meanwhile, fighting between pro-govt forces and Huthis intensified in north despite Saudi Arabia’s announcement of military freeze and extension, raising prospect of continued escalation in May unless parties agree to nationwide ceasefire. Saudi Arabia 24 April extended two-week ceasefire announced 8 April in response to UN appeal to end hostilities amid COVID-19 pandemic. Huthis next day dismissed Saudi “ceasefire” announcement as sham, demanded Riyadh lift its blockade of airspace, land borders and ports in Huthi-held areas; President Hadi opposed demands. UN envoy Martin Griffiths 16 April told UN Security Council that agreement between warring parties on nationwide ceasefire, humanitarian measures and resumption of talks would be finalised in “immediate future”, raising hopes for comprehensive cessation of hostilities. Progress however limited by end of month; amid ongoing Saudi airstrikes throughout month despite ceasefire declaration, fighting between Huthis and govt forces persisted in al-Jawf, Marib and al-Bayda. Meanwhile, after flash floods in Aden city, STC 25 April announced autonomous self-administrationin south, prompting condemnation from govt and calls from Riyadh, Washington and UN for implementation of Riyadh Agreement. Previously, STC mid-April accused govt forces of preparing military offensive in Aden city, sparking concerns over collapse of Riyadh Agreement; Mahram al-Qubati, prominent commander in Hadi’s Presidential Guards, early April reportedly announced plan to “liberate” Aden while Saudi Arabia increased deployment of elite forces in Aden. Power struggle within govt late March also broke out: PM Saeed 27 March suspended Saleh al-Jabwani, transport minister and outspoken critic of Riyadh Agreement and Saudi Arabia; although President Hadi reportedly rejected PM Saeed’s decision, al-Jabwani shortly after resigned. Authorities 29 April reported total of five COVID-19 cases in south, raising fears of outbreak across country where local population already in midst of major humanitarian crisis; senior UN officials 21 April estimated seventeen million people face acute food insecurity.

Huthi forces continued their advance into govt-held Marib governorate in north and cross-border attacks between Huthis and Saudi Arabia escalated late month, raising risk of more intense fighting in April if parties do not heed UN’s call for ceasefire; fighting continued on other fronts including along Red Sea coast. In north, Huthis 2 March claimed to have taken control of al-Hazm, capital of al-Jawf governorate, and continued advancing east toward Marib governorate. Fighting between govt forces and Huthis in central Marib in March left hundreds injured and killed from both sides. Huthis and govt forces continued fighting in Sirwa district in western Marib and in areas of eastern al-Jawf. Clashes between Huthis and govt-aligned forces also ongoing along Red Sea coast. Govt 12 March said it was withdrawing military observers from UN outposts around Hodeida after Huthi sniper reportedly killed one; govt boycotted meetings of Redeployment Coordination Committee, UN-chaired body tasked with overseeing ceasefire around city. In south, with forces aligned with separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC) repeatedly preventing Saudi forces from taking control of strategic locations in Aden, Saudi officials 15 March allegedly barred senior STC officials from flying from Jordanian capital Amman to Aden. STC leaders warned of further unrest in Aden if Riyadh did not adjust course. To slow spread of COVID-19, Huthis 14 March cancelled flights in and out of Sanaa; govt same day cancelled flights from Aden and Seiyoun. Discussions in Amman over prisoner swaps between govt and Huthis halted as meetings were cancelled due to COVID-19. Following his 23 March call for global ceasefire to limit COVID-19 outbreak, UN Sec-Gen Guterres 25 March urged Yemen’s warring parties to end hostilities and restart talks. Saudi-led coalition, govt, Huthis and other armed actors 25 March expressed support for UN appeal. But cross-border war escalated late March as Huthis 27-28 March launched drone and missile attacks on Riyadh and Saudi economic and military installations in provinces along border. Riyadh responded with airstrikes on Huthi positions in northern Yemen, Sanaa and Hodeida.

Fighting escalated in north as Huthis pursued counteroffensive against govt forces, seizing control of al-Jawf governorate and resuming cross-border attacks into Saudi Arabia, raising risk that violence intensifies further in north in March; fighting erupted in east near border with Oman between Saudi-backed forces and local tribesmen; and govt and southern separatists failed to advance implementation of Riyadh Agreement in south. Huthis 14 Feb claimed responsibility for downing Saudi military jet in al-Jawf governorate; Saudi-led coalition next day retaliated with airstrikes killing 31 civilians. After Saudi Arabia agreed to join talks between Yemeni govt and Huthis on confidence building measures in Jordanian capital Amman, Yemeni govt 16 Feb agreed in principle with Huthis to organise exchange of up to 1,400 detainees. After govt forces launched major offensive toward rebel-held capital Sanaa in Jan, Huthis pursued counteroffensive in al-Jawf, Sanaa and Marib governorates begun late Jan. Intense Saudi airstrikes slowed Huthis’ progress toward capturing govt-controlled cities of al-Hazm, capital of al-Jawf, and making push to Marib city, govt’s main urban strongholds and operations centres. In response to Saudi airstrikes, Huthis resumed missile attacks on southern Saudi Arabia. In east, Saudi-led coalition forces late Feb clashed with local tribal forces in al-Mahra governorate after members of Hurayzi tribe attempted to stop Saudi-backed forces from taking control of Shehn border crossing with Oman. Govt attempted to calm situation by replacing al-Mahra governor. In south, govt and separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC) failed to fulfil commitments in Saudi-brokered “Phase 2” roadmap to implement Nov Riyadh Agreement; notably, govt delayed appointment of security chief and governor in Aden following STC’s refusal to allow presidential guard to return to Aden. STC mid-Feb requested greater UN participation in implementation of agreement. Army regiment on island of Socotra 27 Feb switched sides and pledged allegiance to STC.

Suspected Huthi missile strike on govt forces in north led to intensification of fighting on several fronts including across Yemen-Saudi border, which could spread and escalate further in Feb; govt and southern separatists agreed on new roadmap to implement 5 Nov Riyadh Agreement; and troop build-up in Taiz province in south could augur escalation in Feb between Sunni Islamists and Salafists. In north, talks between Saudi Arabia and Huthis continued and for first half of month both sides largely refrained from cross-border violence. But Huthis increased tempo of fighting along key front lines in north and strike on govt forces’ base in Marib province 18 Jan that reportedly killed over 100 soldiers led to escalation between Huthis and their allies on one side and Saudi-led coalition on other in Al Jawf, Marib and Sanaa governorates. Both sides suffered heavy losses. In south, under pressure from Saudi Arabia, govt and separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC) 9 Jan agreed on “Phase 2” plan to implement Nov Riyadh Agreement; parties had failed to fully implement deal within initial 90-day timeframe disagreeing on how to sequence security and political aspects, with clashes erupting early Jan. New plan requires govt-affiliated forces to redeploy from Aden to front lines in al-Dhale and Abyan provinces, and for STC forces to move from Aden to Lahj governorate within twenty days from 11 Jan. As part of “Phase 2” agreement, govt and STC exchanged 53 prisoners 12 Jan. Rival Yemeni groups 24 Jan completed transfer of heavy weapons in Aden to Saudi-controlled base in city within fifteen-day timeframe. After early redeployments from Aden, process again stalled late Jan, with local appointments still not made. In Taiz governorate, tensions mounted between Sunni Islamist Islah forces, which control Taiz city centre, and United Arab Emirates-backed forces based in Turbah south of city and on Red Sea coast. Islah reportedly building up forces near Turbah late month raising risk of major confrontation there.

Following signing of Riyadh Agreement in Nov, ceasefire between govt and southern separatists held and de-escalation talks between Saudi-led coalition and Huthi rebels continued. In south, while truce largely held, tensions remained over troop build-ups in strategic locations across south and failure to implement key aspects of agreement, including formation of unity govt and appointment of governor and security chief in Aden. Informal de-escalation talks between Huthi rebels and Saudi-led coalition continued as fighting along Saudi-Yemeni border and Saudi airstrikes decreased. Senior military commander Adnan al-Hammadi shot and killed by his brother in Taiz in south 6 Dec; dispute reportedly fuelled by split between factions loyal to Sunni Islamist group Islah and factions supportive of United Arab Emirates. Saudi govt accused Huthis of carrying out 10 Dec attack on medical facility in Saudi city of Jizan in south; no fatalities recorded in first reported cross-border attack since Sept. Huthis claimed 27 Dec missile strike on local Saudi military headquarters in Najran; Saudis denied strike. Yemeni govt and Huthi rebels exchanged prisoners in Taiz 19 Dec; govt released 60 Huthi rebels in exchange for 75 govt-affiliated detainees. U.S. navy 4 Dec announced seizure of “significant” shipment of Iranian missile components bound for Yemen. U.S. State Department 5 Dec announced $15mn reward for information on Yemen-based Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps senior commander Abdul Reza Shahlai.

Yemeni govt and southern separatists signed agreement to end hostilities in south and Saudis reduced airstrikes in Huthi-controlled areas. Yemeni govt 5 Nov signed Riyadh Agreement with southern separatist group Southern Transitional Council (STC) following Saudi-led mediation; agreement provides 90-day timeline for formation of new cabinet with equal representation of northerners and southerners, implementation of political and security arrangements across south, and STC representation in future UN-led peace talks with Huthis. Parties missed deadlines to carry out initial steps including appointment of new governor and security chief in Aden as well as withdrawal of govt and STC forces from front lines across south. Limited clashes erupted in Aden 18 Nov between STC-affiliated forces and unidentified assailants. Saudi military operations against Iran-aligned Huthi rebels continued to decline as indirect talks continued. UN Envoy Martin Griffiths 22 Nov announced 80% fall in Saudi airstrikes in preceding two weeks. In response to Huthi strikes on coalition locations in Mokha 24 Nov, Saudi-led coalition airstrikes 25 Nov killed unknown number of Huthi rebels in Ras Isa port in Hodeida province; clashes followed between Huthis and govt forces around Hodeida. Huthis continued to refrain from strikes into Saudi Arabia but launched missile attacks inside Yemen, in Mokha and Mareb governorates. Huthi forces 17 Nov seized one Saudi and two South Korean vessels in Red Sea; 19 Nov released crews and vessels. Huthis 29 Nov claimed to have killed two Saudi pilots in attack on Saudi helicopter near border. Saudi-led coalition 26 Nov said it was releasing 200 Huthi prisoners and reducing restrictions on Yemeni airspace to enable medical evacuations from Huthi-controlled capital Sanaa; International Committee of the Red Cross 28 Nov announced successful repatriation of 128 Huthi detainees from Saudi Arabia. Kuwait 22 Nov declared willingness to host UN-sponsored peace talks.

Saudi airstrikes against Iran-aligned Huthi forces in north reduced in intensity and scope, and Yemeni govt and southern separatists made headway in Saudi-mediated talks, creating opportunity to avoid further hostilities in south and pivot to national level peace talks. Saudi Arabia responded positively to Huthis’ Sept unilateral ceasefire, largely limiting airstrikes to front-line positions and, reportedly at Riyadh’s request, Yemeni govt 16 Oct allowed eight fuel shipments to enter Huthi-administered port of Hodeida. Saudi airstrike in Saada province in north 21 Oct killed five civilians. After Huthis’ unilateral prisoner release in Sept, Huthis 10 Oct proposed prisoner swap with govt, which has not yet responded. In south, sporadic fighting continued in Abyan and Shebwa governorates between govt forces and southern separatist groups including Southern Transitional Council (STC). But in Saudi capital Riyadh, negotiations to end rift between Saudi-backed Yemeni govt and UAE-backed STC advanced toward signing of so-called Riyadh Agreement (formerly known as Jeddah Agreement) that would see southerners gain equal representation with northerners in govt and place in future peace talks with Huthis. Govt repeatedly postponed signing ceremony due to differences over selection of interior and defence ministers, govt’s demand that UAE withdraw completely from south and request for security-first sequencing of implementation. Fighting between govt forces and STC escalated in Abyan province 31 Oct prompting parties to postpone signing of Riyadh Agreement without setting new date. Saudi forces progressively took control of Aden in south during month as UAE forces withdrew, completing withdrawal 30 Oct. Saudis brought in new troops and equipment 26 Oct. Huthi forces 29 Oct attacked convoy transporting defence minister in Marib province in centre, killing two soldiers.

Fighting continued in south between pro-govt forces and southern separatists and troop movements suggest parties readying for escalation in coming weeks; and cross-border attacks between Huthis and Saudi Arabia could intensify in Oct if Huthis’ offer of unilateral suspension of attacks fails to produce mutual de-escalation agreement. In south, govt forces and United Arab Emirates-aligned southern separatist group Southern Transitional Council (STC) continued to clash in Abyan and Shebwa governorates and reportedly assembled fighters and equipment in strategic areas in preparation for new round of major fighting. Govt and STC held indirect talks in Saudi city of Jeddah 4 Sept onwards aimed at power-sharing agreement to end fighting, no outcome end-month. While Huthis claimed responsibility for 14 Sept attacks on Saudi oil facilities, Saudi Arabia, U.S. and other foreign powers held Iran responsible. U.S. said attacks launched from Iran and described them as “act of war”. Saudi-led coalition 20 Sept launched airstrikes on Huthi positions near Hodeida targeting sites used to develop sea mines. Huthis 23 Sept claimed that coalition airstrikes in Amran governorate killed five civilians. Coalition airstrike in Qataba, Dhale province 26 Sept killed at least sixteen civilians including seven children. Huthis 18 Sept said they would cease attacks into Saudi Arabia; Saudi govt 27 Sept agreed to partial ceasefire in four Yemeni provinces including Huthi-controlled capital Sanaa. Huthis 29 Sept claimed that their 25 Aug cross-border offensive in Najran province, Saudi Arabia killed hundreds of Saudi soldiers and captured “thousands”; Saudi Arabia and Yemeni govt denied claim. Stalemate in Hodeida persisted: in 9-10 Sept meeting, Redeployment Coordination Committee comprising govt and Huthi representatives failed to agree on who would provide security in Hodeida port following redeployment of military forces. Huthis 30 Sept said they would release without conditions 350 prisoners in attempt to deliver on stalled UN-brokered prisoner exchange deal agreed in Dec; released 290 by end-month.

Southern separatists aligned with United Arab Emirates (UAE) seized city of Aden from govt forces 10 Aug and moved to consolidate control across south, raising risk that violence escalates in Sept between opposed factions in south. Fighting triggered by Huthi missile strike in Aden in south 1 Aug that killed Munir al-Mashali, commander of UAE-trained Security Belt force and prominent figure in separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC), and 29 other officers; STC alleged that members of Saudi-backed Islamist Islah faction facilitated strike. After reports emerged 7 Aug that President Hadi’s guards had fired at people attending al-Mashali’s funeral in Aden, STC launched offensive on city same day. STC 10 Aug said it had taken control of city, which govt confirmed. Fighting left at least 40 dead. Separatists sought to consolidate control elsewhere in south: in Abyan governorate, pro-STC Security Belt fighters 19 Aug seized military base in Zinjibar and 20 Aug captured al-Kawad military camp. Govt launched counterattacks, regaining bases in Shebwa governorate and control of Zinjibar. Govt forces 28 Aug moved on Aden, prompting clashes in eastern part. Saudi Arabia, which opposes Yemen’s partition, 12 Aug called for talks in Saudi city of Jeddah. STC 15 Aug said it would attend talks, but would not cede Aden unless Islah and northerners were removed from powerful positions in govt. Govt 20 Aug refused to participate in dialogue with STC unless latter retreated from Aden. UAE same day rejected govt’s accusations that it had supported separatists’ capture of Aden. Govt 29 Aug accused UAE of airstrike that killed 30 govt troops between Abyan and Aden; UAE same day claimed responsibility for airstrikes but said they targeted “terrorist militias”. Huthis drones 9 Aug targeted Abha airport in Saudi Arabia; airstrike 17 Aug started fire at Shaybah oil field near UAE border, prompting coalition airstrikes around Sanaa same day and around Saada 20 Aug. Huthis claimed to have made advances in north near Saudi border, including attack on coalition soldiers in Kitaf, Saada.

Huthi forces kept up cross-border attacks into Saudi Arabia and fighting continued on Red Sea coast and between anti-Huthi groups in south, as United Arab Emirates (UAE) continued to withdraw forces from Red Sea coast. UAE 22 July publicly acknowledged its military drawdown from all its operations in Yemen, but appeared to retain lead for liaison with and advice to Yemeni forces on Red Sea coast. UAE FM Gargash 22 July reiterated commitment to political process, described drawdown as “confidence-building measure”, and said UAE and coalition “not leaving Yemen”. Main Yemeni forces – Giants Brigade, Guards of the Republic and Tihama Resistance – 2 July announced formation of command cell for “Joint Resistance Forces”. Huthis continued cross-border attacks into Saudi territory and reportedly stepped up attacks on towns south of Hodeida. Huthis and Saudi-led coalition held each other responsible for attack on market in Saada province in north 29 July that killed at least ten civilians, including children. UAE-backed forces continued to clash repeatedly with Hadi govt-affiliated units, particularly in al-Dhale and Taiz governorates. Hadi govt’s Economic Committee 25 June announced restoration of govt monopoly over fuel imports and distribution, angering Yemeni businessmen working in govt-controlled territory; Huthis early July claimed move was attempt to cut off fuel supplies in areas they control.