CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Attacks by Palestinians targeting Israelis continued, increasingly perpetrated in pairs or trios using improvised live arms; attacks since Oct 2015 increasingly being referred to as third intifada, with death toll now standing at nearly 200 Palestinians and 30 Israelis in some 300 incidents. Amid rising domestic criticism of Israeli govt over failure to address attacks, cabinet 10 March decided to continue construction of separation barrier, despite objections from Jewish settlers who would fall on eastern side, and objections from defence establishment on barrier’s route. PM Netanyahu 2 March also asked attorney general to examine possibility of expelling Palestinian assailants’ families to Gaza. Senior UN envoy Nickolay Mladenov condemned Israeli soldier’s “apparent extrajudicial execution” of wounded Palestinian assailant accused of involvement in stabbing attack on Israeli soldier in W Bank 24 March. France led attempts to revive Israeli-Palestinian negotiations: French envoy Pierre Vimont 13 March travelled to Ramallah and Jerusalem to hear parties’ views. International conference without parties planned for April, another with parties planned for June; Palestinian officials said they would attend. Germany and France 16 March criticised Israel’s decision to appropriate large tracts of land in W Bank; EU said decision raised questions over Israel’s commitment to two-state solution. Several rockets fired from Gaza toward Israel 11 March; two Palestinian children killed 12 march in retaliatory Israeli airstrikes. Israel 10 March announced Gazans wishing to leave territory would be permitted to leave via Jordan if they promised not to return for at least one year. Hamas delegation from Gaza permitted to travel to Cairo to meet Egyptian General Intelligence Service. Protests by Palestinian teachers seeking wage increase suspended after Palestinian Authority mid-March agreed to increase salaries with back pay.
Tensions in Israel and West Bank increased with early-Feb cluster of Palestinian attacks on Israelis, following several months’ decline in attacks. Leading Israeli opposition Labour party 8 Feb endorsed “Separation Plan” calling for completion of separation barrier, avoiding construction outside settlement blocks, transfer of civil powers to Palestinian Authority (PA) over areas beyond barrier and excluding many Palestinian villages-turned neighbourhoods in E Jerusalem from city’s municipal boundaries. Following eight attacks in a single day 14 Feb, in which Israeli officials reported five Palestinians shot dead, opposition leader Isaac Herzog said Israel combatting “third Intifada”. Israeli forces 15 Feb raided Amari refugee camp in Ramallah leaving 28 Palestinians with gunshot injuries; same day raided Qalandiya refugee camp in W Bank, arrested local Fatah leader. International Quartet (EU, Russia, U.S. and UN) 12 Feb declared it will write report including recommendations on how to move toward two-state solution. PM Netanyahu 10 Feb announced intention to complete construction of separation barrier. Israeli court 4 Feb jailed two Israeli youths for July 2014 murder of Palestinian teenager. Egypt opened Rafah crossing 13-16 Feb, permitting some 2,000 Palestinians to leave. Hamas and Fatah early-Feb discussed possibility of reconciling by forming national unity govt, scheduling elections and implementing Cairo agreement, however talks appear stalled. W Bank teachers went on strike over wages starting 10 Feb; PA deployed police across Ramallah, set up roadblocks; at least twenty teachers arrested 16 Feb, thousands joined protests 23 Feb. UN and PA 11 Feb made joint appeal for $571m in humanitarian aid to Palestinians. UN special rapporteur on human rights 11 Feb urged Israel to investigate excessive use of force against Palestinians.
Month saw continued Palestinian attacks on Israelis in Jerusalem, West Bank and Israel, increased use of live arms in attacks. Israeli PM Netanyahu 25 Jan ordered army to increase settlement security. Netanyahu 26 Jan accused UNSG Ban of giving “tailwind to terror” after Ban criticised Israeli settlement building. Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas 6 Jan announced PA would not be dissolved but replaced by Palestinian state; called for international conference for peace; France 29 Jan proposed international peace summit to renew diplomatic process. PA General Intelligence chief widely criticised by Palestinians after stating 18 Jan that PA security forces prevented over 200 terrorist attacks against Israel since Oct 2015. Amid worsening conditions in Gaza, Hamas and PA continued dispute over opening and control of Rafah border crossing, which remains almost entirely closed. Ongoing talks over rapprochement between Israel and Turkey.
Month saw continued wave of almost daily stabbings, vehicle attacks and, increasingly, shootings by Palestinians targeting Israelis in West Bank, Jerusalem and Gaza. Gaps emerging between PM Netanyahu, military and intelligence chiefs over tactics used to stop violence, which has seen over 130 Palestinians and some twenty Israelis killed since 1 Oct. Palestinian Authority (PA) President Abbas 14 Dec said attacks result of “despair” of Palestinian youths and Israeli visits to al-Aqsa Mosque. U.S. Sec State Kerry 5 Dec warned of collapse of PA and its impact on Israel. Israel held talks with Quartet delegation in Jerusalem mid-Dec; no concrete result. Turkish President Erdoğan and Hamas leader Khaled Meshal met in Istanbul 19 Dec, day after Israel and Turkey announced they are working to restore relations following five-year rift; several unresolved issues still outstanding. Greek parliament 22 Dec approved non-binding resolution calling on govt to recognise state of Palestine in vote attended by Abbas. Relations between Hamas and Egypt continued to deteriorate, following claims of cooperation between Hamas and Islamic State (IS) in Sinai. Three rockets fired into Israel from S Lebanon 20 Dec, hours after Hizbollah claimed Israeli airstrike inside Syria killed leading Lebanese militant Samir Kuntar 19 Dec. Israel 21 Dec announced it will deploy new medium-range missile interceptor by mid-2016.
Month saw dramatic reduction of violence at Jerusalem’s Holy Esplanade following late Oct understandings between Israel and Jordan, regarding preventing provocateurs from entering site and strengthening Jordan’s role there. PM Netanyahu and President Obama discussed Palestinian violence against Israeli citizens during 9 Nov meeting in Washington; Netanyahu said he remained committed to two-state solution. U.S. Sec State Kerry 24 Nov met Netanyahu and Palestinian leaders in bid to stop ongoing violence, which has seen around 100 Palestinians and around twenty Israelis killed since 1 Oct. Govt 2 Nov passed three-year minimum prison sentence for stone-throwers. Following 13 Nov Paris attacks claimed by Islamic State (IS), Israeli govt 17 Nov used emergency regulations to outlaw northern branch of Israel’s Islamic movement, approved construction of 436 residential units in E Jerusalem settlement Ramat Shlomo and unfreeze 1,000 additional residential units. Netanyahu 18 Nov hinted at possibility of Israeli annexation of parts of West Bank. Severe rainstorms brought flooding to Gaza. Israel late Nov suspended EU involvement in peace process following EU’s decision to label goods from Jewish settlements in West Bank.
Escalating tensions at Jerusalem’s Holy Esplanade saw surge in violence, triggered by revived Israeli limitations on Muslim entry to al-Aqsa Mosque early Sept and Palestinian stone-throwing at Israel security forces to prevent entry of religious Jews. Over 60 Palestinians killed during month in attacks and during anti-Israel protests in Jerusalem, West Bank, Gaza and elsewhere; over ten Israelis killed in series of random stabbing and shooting attacks against civilians and security forces. Govt 14 Oct introduced unprecedented security measures in attempt to curb violence, including checkpoints across city, police stationed on roof of al-Aqsa Mosque, limitations on entry to Old City for Palestinians. In West Bank, demonstrations against violence continued; Palestinian Authority (PA) security forces allowed protests near Israel checkpoints, seen by Israel as weakening of security coordination. Palestinians 16 Oct set fire to parts of Joseph’s Tomb complex in Nablus. Hamas allowed popular protests in Gaza near fence. Military 24 Sept changed its open-fire regulations, security forces continued to shoot and injure Palestinians: at least six shot dead 9 Oct; at least 92 Palestinians injured 23 Oct during clashes in W Bank and Gaza. Leader of Hamas in Gaza Ismail Haniyeh 9 Oct described violence as beginning of new intifada. PM Netanyahu 15 Oct said Israel was using legitimate force. International diplomatic efforts focused on restoring calm: Israeli govt and Palestinian religious leaders rejected 18 Oct French UNSC draft resolution on stationing international observers at the Holy Esplanade. U.S. Sec State Kerry 19 Oct said Israeli and Palestinian leaders need to “upgrade and clarify” Nov 2014 understandings regarding governing arrangements for Temple Mount; Jordanian King Abdullah II 22 Oct cautioned Israel govt against “any attempt to change the status quo”. Kerry separately met with Netanyahu 22 Oct and PA President Mahmoud Abbas 24 Oct in bid to quell violence.
Clashes broke out between Israeli police and Palestinian protesters at Al-Aqsa Mosque starting 10 Sept after govt, fearing violent escalation at site during visits by religious Jews during Jewish New Year (Rosh Hashana), revived limitations on Muslim access 9 Sept. According to Jordanian officials, access restrictions are violation of Nov 2014 commitment made by PM Netanyahu to Jordan. Following intervention by Western and Arab leaders, Netanyahu mid-Sept agreed to roll back limitations. Clashes resumed late month. Tensions also increased in Gaza, which saw protests over worsening electricity shortages 12-15 Sept in central and southern Gaza. Hamas 18 Sept called for protests in W Bank; Palestinian national security forces violently broke up peaceful protest outside Azza refugee camp. Rockets fired from Gaza same day, responsibility claimed by Salafi-jihadi group; Israeli air force responded by bombing three targets in Gaza. Egypt continued operations against Gaza-Sinai tunnels, flooding Gaza-Egypt border with seawater 18 Sept. Emergency session of Palestinian National Council cancelled 9 Sept, postponed for at least three months. PA President Mahmoud Abbas spoke at UNGA 30 Sept, said Palestine no longer bound by agreements which Israel “continually violated”, Israel must assume responsibilities as occupying power; Netanyahu called speech “deceitful”. Abbas also attended ceremony raising Palestinian flag outside UN. While fourteen Palestinians in Israeli prisons continued protesting their administrative detention, Israel 16 Sept rearrested Mohammed Allan, high-profile hunger-striking Palestinian prisoner, on his release from hospital. Palestinian reported killed by premature detonation of grenade in his attempted attack on Israeli soldiers near Hebron 21 Sept; Palestinian woman shot dead by Israeli soldier at Hebron checkpoint 22 Sept. Israel 27 Sept struck Syrian army targets in Golan Heights in response to “errant” rockets from Syria.
Israel 20 Aug launched missiles into Syria’s Quneitra region after two rockets from Syrian Golan hit northern Israeli village near Lebanese border; five deaths reported from Israeli missiles, identity of casualties not confirmed. Israel blamed initial attack on Palestinian group Islamic Jihad with Iranian sponsorship, Islamic Jihad denied involvement. Amid rumoured turmoil within Palestinian leadership, Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas 23 Aug announced he will resign from Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) executive committee, but will retain Palestinian presidency. In Gaza, 6 Aug explosion in Rafah killed four and injured 43; initial reports suggest explosion caused by undetonated ordnance left over from 50-day war in 2014. UNRWA early Aug reported infant mortality in Gaza increased by 70% between 2008 and 2013, highlighting eight-year Israeli blockade as contributing factor. Israeli Supreme Court temporarily suspended detention of Palestinian prisoner Mohammed Allan, after he reportedly suffered brain damage from 65-day hunger strike while under indefinite administrative detention.
Tensions between Salafi-jihadi groups and Hamas in Gaza continued to rise following 19 July bombing of at least five vehicles belonging to Hamas and Islamic Jihad; Hamas security forces same day arrested two Salafi-jihadi suspects, said investigation ongoing. Hamas earlier denied involvement in 1 July attack by IS affiliate in Sinai on Egyptian forces (see Egypt). Hamas leaders made several statements alluding to indirect talks with Israel over possible lifting of Gaza’s blockade, and possible new prisoner exchange, with Israel seeking return of two of its citizens reportedly held in Gaza. Hamas leaders 17 July held rare meeting with Saudi Arabia’s King Salman, sparking hopes of rapprochement. In W Bank, negotiations continued on forming new Palestinian unity govt following June announcement by Palestinian Authority (PA) that it would resign. PA arrested over 250 Hamas members in W Bank over several weeks beginning in June, citing security concerns; Hamas condemned arrests, threatened retaliation. Israeli forces shot dead several Palestinians including teenager in W Bank 3 July, 18 year old in Qalandiya refugee camp 27 July. Increased pressure from pro-settlement lobby over 29 July destruction of 24 residential units built unlawfully in Beit El settlement and amid divisions within Israel’s coalition govt: to allay pressures Netanyahu re-authorised 300 settlement units in Beit El and promised 504 additional settlement units in E Jerusalem. Palestinian child killed in arson attack in W Bank 30 July, Israeli police said settlers suspected of carrying out attack. Netanyahu condemned 14 July Iran-P5+1/EU3+3 nuclear deal (see Iran), said it paves way for Iran to develop nuclear weapons.
Palestinian Authority (PA) in West Bank 17 June announced it would resign; President Abbas ordered PM Rami Hamdallah to form new govt, replacing govt of national consensus formed in June 2014. Hamas refused to join unity govt under conditions set by PLO; Abbas spokesman 30 June said Abbas to reshuffle current govt. Tensions increased between Salafi-jihadis and Hamas in Gaza: Hamas security forces early June killed leading Salafi-jihadi militant Younis al-Hunnor in Sheikh Radwan, Gaza City. Salafi-jihadi groups 6 and 11 June fired rockets toward Israel. Amid ongoing rumours of possible Israel-Hamas truce in Gaza, Egypt opened Rafah crossing three times in June. With concern growing over Druze minority in Syria (see Syria), Israeli Druze called for govt to intervene in southern Golan to create safe zone for Druze. Druze protestors 22 June attacked military ambulance carrying two wounded Syrians in Golan Heights over suspicion they were militants, one Syrian beaten to death. Low-scale violence in Jerusalem and W Bank ongoing, including: Israeli forces 10 June shot dead Palestinian in Jenin refugee camp; Israeli forces 21 June shot dead Palestinian man who stabbed Israel border officer in Jerusalem; two Israeli civilians shot, one fatally, 19 June near Dolev, W Bank; Israeli soldier wounded in stabbing at checkpoint near Bethlehem and four wounded in W Bank settlement shooting, both 29 June. Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) 11 June announced military investigation cleared forces of any wrongdoing over controversial killing of four Palestinian boys in 2014 Gaza war. Several high profile boycott campaigns prompted concern in Israel over further “internationalisation” of conflict.
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