CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Middle East & North Africa

Israel/Palestine

PM Netanyahu 6 May secured deal to form new coalition with 61 of 120 parliamentary seats; FM Lieberman resigned 4 May, announced he will not join new coalition. Palestinian Authority (PA) warned that new govt will “bury” two-state solution, and in mid-May set out conditions for re-entering peace talks, including halt to settlement construction, release of certain prisoners and timeline for peace talks and end of occupation. U.S. President Obama mid-May stated he will not seek to resume peace talks with new govt, instead prioritising smaller goals such as reconstruction in Gaza. Violence in Jerusalem and W Bank continued; Palestinian shot dead by Israeli forces 4 May after being suspected of attempting to stab Israeli security officer in Jerusalem; Israeli border police 20 May shot dead Palestinian man believed to be driving into border patrol officers in E Jerusalem. Amid intense international and domestic pressure, Netanyahu 20 May suspended controversial new defence ministry plan to separate Palestinians and Jews on bus routes running from Israel to W Bank. In Gaza, Salafi jihadists, some claiming affiliation to Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIL), intensified campaign against Hamas; group known as Supporters of the Islamic State in Jerusalem claimed 8 May attack on Hamas base near Khan Younis. Major-General Sami Turgeman, outgoing commander of Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) Southern Command, stated 12 May that Israel and Hamas have “common interests” and that there is no alternative to Hamas rule in Gaza. Militants believed to be members of Islamic Jihad 26 May fired rocket that landed in empty area near Israeli city Ashdod; Israel retaliated striking four targets in Gaza. Clashes erupted 3 May in Tel Aviv’s Rabin Square as thousands protested police brutality toward Israeli Jews of Ethiopian descent.

Middle East & North Africa

Israel/Palestine

President Rivlin 20 April gave PM Netanyahu additional fourteen days to form new govt following 17 March elections; Netanyahu signed coalition deals with ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism and centre-right Kulanu late month. Israel and Palestinian Authority (PA) 18 April announced they had reached agreement on amount to be deducted from tax revenues which Israel had withheld. Amid tensions over tax revenue crisis, Israel took further measures to ease relations with W Bank; allowed Palestinian security forces to operate in three Jerusalem area towns and 14 April allowed Palestinian doctors’ vehicles to enter Jerusalem for first time in fifteen years. Army 15 April announced arrest of 29 Hamas activists in major sweep around Nablus city in northern occupied W Bank; several dozen Hamas activists arrested since 1 April. PA ministers from Gaza and Ramallah met 19 April in attempt to resolve ongoing salary crisis. Several explosive devices set off by unidentified assailants in Gaza during month, including explosions reported in Gaza City 17-18 April near Palestinian cabinet HQ, UNRWA offices and Islamic University. Palestinian shot dead 8 April after stabbing two Israeli soldiers in W Bank. Israeli troops 24 April shot dead Palestinian after attempted stabbing of border police officer at E Jerusalem checkpoint. Protestors clashed with Israeli troops in northern occupied W Bank 17 April. Israeli forces 23 April struck Hamas sites near Beit Hanoun in northern Gaza after rocket was fired toward Israel, Israel said by non-Hamas militants. Amid Israeli discontent over 2 April P5+1 (EU3+3) agreement on Iran nuclear framework (see Iran), Israel reportedly “happy” with U.S. President Obama’s 14 April agreement that U.S. Congress must review any nuclear deal with Iran.

Middle East & North Africa

Israel/Palestine

Ruling Likud party declared winner of Israeli legislative elections 17 March with 30 of 120 parliamentary seats; PM Netanyahu 26 March began negotiations to form what is expected to be right-wing new govt, with Likud likely to retain defence ministry. Speaking on election day Netanyahu said Arabs going “in droves” to ballot box, sparking accusations of racism; observers anticipate increasing tensions between Arab Israelis and govt. Day before polls Netanyahu stated impossibility of Palestinian statehood under his rule, making prospect of renewal of peace process recede further. Amid continued salary crisis in Gaza and W Bank, Palestinian Authority forced to cut employee salaries, introduce emergency budget. Israeli govt March 27 announced it will resume payment of Palestinian tax revenues; PLO Central Council 5 March had voted to suspend all security cooperation with Israel. Despite focus on election campaign Israel took some measures to ease tensions in W Bank and Gaza, introducing increased numbers of work permits to W Bank residents, permitting limited exports of Gaza produce, meeting Qatari representatives to facilitate development projects in Gaza. France preparing draft resolution for UNSC for early April, calling for pre-1967 frontier as reference for border talks, while allowing for territory swaps; Jerusalem to be designated capital of both Israel and a Palestinian state; and fair solution for Palestinian refugees.

Middle East & North Africa

Israel/Palestine

Amid continued economic crises in Gaza and W Bank, Hamas test fired long-range rockets toward sea in Gaza, demanded international community ensure payments for Gaza’s civil servants and delivery of unpaid donor funds for Gaza reconstruction. Palestinian President Abbas late month threatened to halt security coordination with Israel unless Israel releases frozen Palestinian tax revenues, withheld since Abbas’s late Dec signing of Rome Statute, undermining PA’s ability to pay W Bank employees. Campaigning continued ahead 17 March Israeli elections; observers suggested release of Palestinian revenues unlikely before elections. Israeli troops 24 Feb shot dead Palestinian during clash in W Bank refugee camp.

Middle East & North Africa

Israel/Palestine

International Criminal Court (ICC) 16 Jan opened preliminary examination into possible war crimes committed in Palestinian territories since 13 June 2014; move followed UN announcement early month Palestine will join Rome Statute of ICC as full member 1 April. Israel responded by freezing transfer of Palestinian tax revenues. PA continued to refuse paying Gaza’s Hamas-hired civil servants, while insisting on return of Gaza employees hired prior to Hamas takeover in June 2007; observers warned renewed civil strife in Gaza could spark more intra-Palestinian or Gaza-Israel violence. Salafi-jihadis permitted to demonstrate in Gaza 19 Jan; unidentified assailants blew up cars belonging to members of Fatah and Hamas. Hamas mid-Jan declared Fatah-affiliated employees of pre-2007 govt would no longer be allowed to collect salaries; ATMs, surveillance cameras of bank used for salary payments sabotaged. Palestinian 21 Jan injured thirteen in knife-attack on bus passengers in Tel Aviv; Israeli forces 14 Jan shot dead Palestinian outside W Bank settlement, another killed near Nablus 31 Jan. Israeli political parties campaigned vigorously ahead of 17 March election; Arab parties 22 Jan united into unprecedented single joint list, likely to increase voting among Israeli Arab citizens. Two Israeli soldiers killed by Hizbollah along Lebanese border 28 Jan in retaliation for 18 Jan Israeli airstrike in Golan Heights killing six Hizbollah members, Iranian Revolutionary Guard General (see Lebanon).

Middle East & North Africa

Israel/Palestine

Palestinian President Abbas 31 Dec signed applications for membership of Rome Statute of International Criminal Court and several other international agreements, following failure of Jordanian-submitted Palestinian draft resolution to secure required three-fifths support during 30 Dec UNSC vote; Jordanian resolution called for negotiated resolution to conflict within twelve months, full withdrawal of Israeli forces from future Palestinian state by end of 2017. Tensions decreased in W Bank and Jerusalem, seemingly aided by Israel’s continued removal of restrictions on Palestinian access to al-Aqsa Mosque. PA minister Ziad Abu Ein died following altercation with Israeli soldiers during peaceful protest in W Bank 10 Dec. Israeli troops 16 Dec shot dead Palestinian in W Bank refugee camp Qalandiya; 29 Dec killed stone-throwing teenager near Tapuah settlement. EU General Court 17 Dec reversed EU designation of Hamas as terrorist organisation; several European states pledged to ensure Hamas remains on terror list. Gaza reconstruction proceeded slowly, PA official 22 Dec said over 90% of donor funds not delivered despite Oct pledges. Hamas continuously warned of return to violence if Gaza crisis remains unresolved. Israeli airstrikes 20 Dec targeted Gaza cement factory after Gaza militants fired rocket across border, no casualties; Hamas militant killed in clash with Israeli soldiers along border 24 Dec. Israeli PM Netanyahu 2 Dec requested early elections, confirmed by Knesset for 17 March.

Middle East & North Africa

Israel/Palestine

Month saw continued tensions and attacks on Israeli civilians in Jerusalem, increasingly referred to as “Jerusalem Intifada”: two killed in vehicular attack on pedestrians 5 Nov, Palestinian driver shot dead by police; four rabbis killed in W Jerusalem synagogue 18 Nov. Violence spread outside Jerusalem: several clashes reported across Israel between Palestinian protesters, Israeli civilians and police; Palestinian 10 Nov stabbed dead Israeli soldier in Tel Aviv. Right wing Israeli politicians, including PM Netanyahu, advanced legislation on automatic application of all new Israeli laws to settlers, discriminatory definition of Israel as nation-state of Jewish people; move deepened crisis of ruling coalition, sparked speculation about early election. PA security forces prevented large-scale organised protests in W Bank; Israeli woman killed outside Alon Shvut settlement 10 Nov, Israeli troops next day shot dead Palestinian during clash in refugee camp outside Hebron. Popular Fatah leader Marwan Baraghouti, jailed in Israel since 2002, 11 Nov criticised PA security coordination with Israel, called for third Intifada. Gaza reconstruction remained stalled, long-running salary crisis unresolved; Hamas signalled unwillingness to tolerate status quo. Israeli forces 23 Nov shot dead Palestinian near border in northern Gaza.

Middle East & North Africa

Israel/Palestine

Month saw several clashes between Israeli police, Palestinian protesters seeking to prevent entry of religious Jews to Jerusalem’s Holy Esplanade following escalation during July-Aug fighting in Gaza; Jerusalem mayor late Oct said monthly incidents of public disorder rose from 200 before Gaza conflict to 5,000 during and after. Israeli authorities 30 Oct closed Holy Esplanade to all visitors following police killing of Palestinian; Palestinian President Abbas said move “tantamount to declaration of war”, authorities lifted closure later same day, retained tight security. Closure followed increase in tensions during early to mid-Oct Jewish holiday of Sukkoth; strict entry limitations for Muslims in reaction to violent protests, unprecedentedly strong call from Abbas and Hamas leader Khaled Meshal to defend al-Aqsa mosque. Norwegian sponsors of 12 Oct donor conference on Gaza reconstruction announced pledge of $5.4bn over three years; roughly half for PA, apparently including regular PA aid. Israel took initial steps toward easing restrictions on Gaza including limited easing of movement by Gazans to Israel and W Bank, permitting entry of some reconstruction materials directed to Gaza warehouses pending implementation of monitoring mechanisms. Egyptian govt late Oct postponed indirect Israeli-Palestinian talks in Cairo following declaration of state of emergency in Sinai (see Egypt). Several deadly incidents reported in Jerusalem, W Bank including two Israeli citizens, Palestinian driver killed in vehicular attack on pedestrians in E Jerusalem 23 Oct; Palestinian boy shot dead by Israeli forces during clash with residents in W Bank village of Silwad next day.

Middle East & North Africa

Israel/Palestine

UN-mediated agreement to allow increased entry of commodities into Gaza, including dual-use construction materials, reached mid-Sept; concerns inflow of materials insufficient to address enormous reconstruction needs following July-Aug fighting. Both sides claimed Aug ceasefire not fully implemented: Hamas said Israel violated Gaza fishing rights, entered Gaza’s perimeter; Israel pointed to mortar fire on southern Israel. Indirect Israel-Hamas negotiations resumed in Cairo late Sept. Egypt convened Fatah-Hamas talks 23-24 Sept; agreement reached on salary payments for all civil servants and security force members of previous Hamas-led govt starting late Sept. Palestinian President Abbas announced intention to submit resolution to UNSC calling for end date to Israeli occupation; PA, Fatah officials vowed to join UN agencies and International Criminal Court in case of failure. E Jerusalem protests continued: over 700 youths arrested since early July, 1 died early Sept following clashes with police. Israeli troops 10 Sept killed Palestinian in W Bank refugee camp; 23 Sept killed 2 alleged perpetrators of June murders of 3 Israeli youths in Hebron.

Middle East & North Africa

Israel/Palestine

Fighting between Israel and Hamas resumed 19 Aug after 3 consecutive ceasefires over previous 9 days: more than 2100 mostly civilian Palestinians, at least 66 Israeli soldiers and 6 civilians inside Israel killed since early July; Israel limited renewed campaign to air strikes, avoiding another ground operation. Egyptian-brokered ceasefire agreement reached 26 Aug; reportedly called for limited lifting of Gaza travel and trade restrictions; major issues including building of Gaza seaport, release of Palestinian prisoners deferred to later discussions. Hamas denied Israel’s claim Gaza militants broke ceasefire 19 Aug; 5 killed in Israeli air strike same day including wife and child of Mohammad Deif, leader of Hamas’s military wing; 3 senior Hamas commanders killed 21 Aug. Clashes between Palestinian protesters and Israeli army in W Bank continued, at least 20 Palestinians reported killed since early July.

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