CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Representatives of some 70 countries gathered at Israeli-Palestinian peace conference in Paris 15 Jan amid uncertainty over implications of U.S. presidential transition for diplomatic process; concluding statement underlined continued feasibility of two-state solution, called for “swift steps” to improve humanitarian situation in Gaza and exhorted both sides to refrain from actions and policies that endanger two-state solution. President Abbas 9 Jan warned that if new U.S. President Trump acts on his campaign promise to move U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO) may rescind recognition of Israel. In Israel, annexationist supporters of settlement expansion increased pressure for bills to legalise settlements built on private Palestinian lands; for formal endorsement of 2012 Levy report which holds that Israel has right to build in West Bank; for application of Israeli law to Ma’ale Adumim settlement east of Jerusalem; and for renewing access of Israeli Knesset members to Jerusalem’s Holy Esplanade. Palestinian resident of East Jerusalem 8 Jan drove truck into crowd of Israeli soldiers in E Jerusalem, killing four; Israeli forces launched crackdown on Palestinians throughout E Jerusalem. Israel carried out demolitions of illegally built homes in Arab town Qalanswah 10 Jan and of homes in unrecognised Bedouin village Umm al-Hiran 18 Jan, during which one resident and one police officer were killed; more demolitions scheduled. Large demonstrations held in Gaza over worsening electricity shortages, including 10,000 in Jabaliya refugee camp 12 Jan. Hamas blamed crisis on Ramallah’s decision to re-impose full taxes on fuel entering Gaza; Palestinian Authority (PA) demanded Hamas hand over control of Gaza if it wanted crisis resolved; Qatar and Turkey provided assistance for fuel. Following talks in Moscow, Hamas and Fatah 17 Jan announced they had reached new agreement to form unity govt to prepare for elections for PA and PLO parliaments; announcement greeted with scepticism among many Palestinians. Ahead of 1 Feb evacuation of small (40 houses) Amona settlement on basis of Supreme Court order, Israel announced construction of 5,500 residential units in settlements in move to reduce antagonism among pro-settlers forces; vast majority of units lie within Israeli-defined settlement blocs, definition Ramallah rejects but which U.S. President Trump is seen as highly likely to accept.
Egypt presented resolution to UNSC 21 Dec inter alia condemning Israeli settlement construction and declaring it violation of international law; setting 1967 lines as basis for negotiations between parties; and calling on countries to differentiate between Israel and settlements. Egypt next day postponed vote, reportedly following pressure from Israel and involvement by U.S. President-elect Trump. Four other UNSC members pushed ahead with vote on same text 23 Dec, which passed after U.S. abstained. Israel called resolution “shameful”; Palestinian President Abbas called it “strong support for the two-state solution”. Amid spike in tensions between Israeli govt and Obama administration, which said it had refrained from exercising its veto in response to Israeli settlement expansion, Israel 26 Dec said it had evidence that U.S. orchestrated resolution; White House denied. Jerusalem municipal govt same day said it will move ahead with thousands of new homes in E Jerusalem. U.S. Sec State Kerry in 28 Dec speech defended UNSC vote and strongly criticised Israel’s expansion of settlements as threat to two-state solution and peace. France 22 Dec said it will convene planned peace conference in Paris 15 Jan. Controversial “legalisation bill” retroactively legalising settlements built on private Palestinian lands in West Bank passed first two votes in Knesset 6 and 7 Dec. UN human rights chief 8 Dec said it would violate international law and “seriously damage the reputation of Israel around the world”. Following Supreme Court’s Oct decision to dismantle illegal Amona settlement, negotiations between Amona’s residents and Netanyahu led to agreement 18 Dec to relocate Amona to different piece of land on same hill, doubling its size and passing legalisation bill. Claim by Palestinian to be owner of designated land threw agreement into doubt. Staff of U.S. President-elect Trump reiterated intention to relocate U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to West Jerusalem despite concerns over impact on diplomatic process; Trump 16 Dec named his choice of new ambassador to Israel, pro-settler opponent of two-state solution, lawyer David Friedman. Abbas 19 Dec stripped parliamentary immunity of five lawmakers, all allies of Abbas critic Mohammed Dahlan, who was sentenced in absentia to three years’ prison by Palestinian court 14 Dec for embezzlement, charges he said were politically motivated.
Israel’s Ministerial Committee for Legislation 16 Nov voted on controversial draft law to retroactively legalise settlements on private (Palestinian) lands in West Bank; law, which was previously called unconstitutional by govt’s legal advisor, was criticised by France and U.S. for endangering two-state solution. Bill was promoted by national-religious Education Minister Naftali Bennett, who declared opportunity to discard two-state solution following U.S. presidential electoral victory of Donald Trump. PM Netanyahu 13 Nov backed another controversial draft law to ban loudspeakers from mosques, prompting mass demonstrations in West Bank and Gaza 18 Nov, while Palestinian leaders called it a declaration of religious war; Jordan announced law could not apply to Jerusalem. Arab members of Knesset publically admitted defying Israeli ban on Knesset member visits to Jerusalem’s Holy Esplanade. U.S. electoral outcome also increased uncertainty regarding Israeli-Palestinian diplomatic process; Palestinian Authority (PA) officials continued supporting UNSC resolution condemning settlement construction and planned Paris international peace conference, however French President Hollande 17 Nov said Trump victory decreases likelihood France will convene conference before end of year. Israel 7 Nov formally declined invitation to conference. In West Bank, Fatah held Seventh Conference 29 Nov, re-elected PA President Abbas as leader. Israeli troops 18 Nov shot dead Palestinian and wounded two others during protest near Gaza-Israel border; another Palestinian shot dead 22 Nov by Israeli security guard near Qalandiya checkpoint. In letter to UNSC, Israel 22 Nov accused Hizbollah and Iran of using commercial flights to transport arms to Lebanon. Israel launched two missiles into Syria 30 Nov, landing west of Damascus; no casualties reported. Israeli military 27 Nov reported it killed four Syrian militiamen allied with Islamic State after they attacked Israeli troops in Golan Heights.
Palestinian Supreme Court 3 Oct ruled that municipal elections, originally scheduled for 8 Oct and suspended early Sept over inability to hold vote in E Jerusalem, could take place in W Bank alone. Central Election Commission recommended all elections be postponed for six months to allow time to prepare for them to be held in both territories; Palestinian Authority (PA) 4 Oct announced elections would be postponed indefinitely. President Abbas criticised by many Palestinians for attending 30 Sept funeral of former Israeli President/PM Shimon Peres, which Arab Knesset members refused to attend. As Jewish high holidays began, Israeli security forces 6 Oct shut down three bodies linked to outlawed northern Islamic Movement. Hamas-affiliated Palestinian from Jerusalem’s Murabitoun (Guardians of al-Aqsa) 9 Oct shot dead two Israelis, injured four; Israeli politicians called for blocking most Arabs from Jewish parts of city. Israeli police killed Palestinian man in E Jerusalem 12 Oct. In Gaza, Israel launched airstrikes 5 Oct and again 24 Oct in retaliation for rocket fire from Islamic State (IS)-affiliated Ahfad al-Sahaba Aknaf Bayt al-Maqdis. Palestinian man shot dead after opening fire on and wounding Israeli soldiers in West Bank 31 Oct. Amid worsening conditions in Gaza, Egypt 15-16 Oct opened Rafah crossing, allowing 783 Gazans to leave. U.S. 5 Oct condemned plans to build 98 housing units east of Shilo, north of illegal Amona outpost; PM Netanyahu asked Supreme Court to postpone evacuation of Amona for six months. UNSC 14 Oct discussed effect of settlements on proposed two state solution. Israel condemned UNESCO resolution on Jerusalem’s Holy Esplanade 13 Oct over its sole use of Muslim name Al-Aqṣa Mosque/Al-Ḥaram Al-Sharif to refer to site. Israel and Turkey 13 Oct held first meeting at ministerial level since June 2016 reconciliation to discuss energy exports.
Ramallah-based Palestinian Supreme Court 8 Sept suspended municipal elections scheduled for 8 Oct in West Bank and Gaza, citing inability to hold vote in East Jerusalem; decision upheld at appeals court 21 Sept. 8 Sept ruling came shortly after Gaza courts had disqualified several Fatah lists based on legal complaints from Hamas. Fatah and Hamas blamed each other for suspension of elections, which would have been first polls contested by parties in a decade. Stabbings and drive-over attacks against Israelis resumed after end of Eid al-Adha 12 Sept following three months of relative calm, fuelling concerns for security ahead of Jewish high holidays starting early Oct. Two Palestinians and one Jordanian killed by Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) in separate incidents 16 Sept after allegedly attempting to stab Israeli citizens in Jerusalem and Hebron. PM Netanyahu facing pressure domestically, as pro-settlement forces within Jewish Home party and Likud pushed to legalise Amona outpost, threatened with evacuation under 2014 Supreme Court ruling. French and Egyptian presidents both used addresses at UNGA 20 Sept to reiterate their efforts to advance diplomatic process between Israel and Palestine; followed 8 Sept announcement by Russia that Israeli and Palestinian leaders had agreed “in principle” to meet in Moscow for talks. Diplomatic Quartet 23 Sept reiterated condemnation of Israeli settlements for eroding viability of two-state solution; settlement expansion also singled out by UNSG Ban and U.S. President Obama during speeches to UNGA. U.S. and Israel 14 Sept agreed aid package including unprecedented $38bn military assistance over ten years. Uptick in clashes between Syrian regime and rebel forces in Quneitra, S Syria early Sept led to unprecedented violence in Israeli-occupied Golan; Israel attacked sources of fire, deployed additional defensive measures including air-defence system Iron Dome.
After a lull, month saw attempted stabbings and other attacks resume, including 24 Aug incident in which Israeli soldier shot Palestinian assailant dead; also Israeli raids in West Bank, dozens injured and one killed during raid in Fawwar refugee camp 17 Aug, while Israeli soldiers killed reportedly unarmed Palestinian near Ramallah in West Bank 26 Aug. Israel 21-22 Aug launched some 50 strikes on targets in Gaza in response to rocket fired from Gaza 21 Aug, claimed by Salafi group Ahfad al-Sahaba and landing in Sderot town causing no injuries. Several Palestinians reported injured in Israeli strikes. Israeli military investigation 24 Aug cleared Israeli army of wrongdoing in incidents in which dozens of civilians were killed during 2014 Gaza war, including shelling of UN school; Palestinian officials urged International Criminal Court to act. With preparations underway for Palestinian municipal elections scheduled 8 Oct, Hamas and Fatah accused each other of obstructing one another’s campaigns. West Bank saw worsening water shortages. Egyptian President Sisi 23 Aug said Russia’s President Putin has offered to host Israeli-Palestinian summit to find a solution; Israel reiterated it is ready for talks without preconditions, Palestinian officials remained firm on demands for talks. No date set yet for France’s proposed international peace conference to convene sides for talks before end of 2016; meeting between FMs to discuss peace process reportedly scheduled for sidelines of UNGA in Sept. Israel reportedly approved 464 new homes in Jewish settlements in W Bank 30 Aug. Likud MP David Amsalem proposed law that would prevent any future criminal investigation into PM Netanyahu while he is in office, drawing opposition condemnation.
International Quartet 1 July issued report identifying three main sets of obstacles to resolution of Israeli-Palestinian conflict: violence and incitement; settlement expansion, land designations and denial of Palestinian statehood; and Gaza Strip’s military build-up, dire humanitarian situation and Palestinian divided governance. Palestinian Authority (PA) criticised report, continued to voice support for France’s peace initiative. Egypt continued to advance its initiative, with its FM meeting with President Abbas late June and PM Netanyahu 10 July – first Egyptian ministerial visit to Israel since 2007. Cairo said it seeks to follow up on President Sisi’s call in May for Israelis and Palestinians to resume direct negotiations. Abbas repeated his demands for any such talks: Israel’s commitment to a settlement freeze, release of fourth tranche of prisoners, and agreement to hold discussions on basis of pre-1967 borders. Hamas declared it would participate in PA municipal elections 8 Oct and permit them to take place in Gaza. Several fatal shootings in West Bank during month, including killing of two members of Palestinian security forces, fuelled discussion about deteriorating security there. Rabbi from Otniel settlement shot dead 1 July; Israeli forces 27 July killed suspect in attack. Palestinian boy killed in clash with troops in East Jerusalem 19 July. Attorney general 10 July ordered new inquiry into matters relating to Netanyahu, with media reporting speculation over suspicions of PM’s possible involvement in criminal offences including money laundering.
Following armed attack in Tel Aviv by two residents of West Bank city Yatta killing four people 9 June, Israel suspended for several days thousands of entry permits for West Bankers and imposed closure on Yatta, eased late June. Final communiqué of international summit convened in Paris early June to revive diplomatic process said status quo not sustainable, both sides needed to show commitment to two-state solution. France said it will convene additional summit by year-end; Palestinians signaled they intend to continue cooperation, however Israel critical of plan. In Gaza, Hamas prepared for new visit to Egypt to discuss Egyptian security in Sinai, Salafi-jihadi militants, members of Hamas’s military wing abducted in Sinai, and Palestinian reconciliation; Fatah delegation traveled to Qatar mid-June to start new Palestinian reconciliation talks which ended in mutual accusations of bad faith. Netanyahu mid-June endorsed harsher anti-terrorism law and allocated funds to construct new wall around Gaza and along some sections of Israeli-Lebanese border. Authorities also approved new settler homes in E Jerusalem during month. Israeli military 21 June reported troops accidentally shot dead Palestinian bystander in W Bank village Seit Sira; 24 June reported soldiers killed Palestinian woman who rammed vehicle into parked car. Violent clashes broke 26 June at Jerusalem’s Holy Esplanade when Israel allowed entry of non-Muslims during the last ten days of Ramadan, reversing common practice over last few years and triggering violent reactions from Palestinians at site. After two days of violent clashes between Israeli police and Palestinian protestors Israel reinstated ban on non-Muslim entry until end of Ramadan fast. Israeli girl stabbed to death by Palestinian attacker 30 June at her home in Jewish settlement in West Bank. Israel and Turkey late June normalised relations following six-year rift over Israel’s killing of Turkish flotilla; deal provided for Israeli compensation and Turkish aid to Gaza.
In worst violence since end of July-Aug 2014 war, Israel early May bombed Hamas facilities in Gaza; Hamas shot light ammunition, mortars, and short-range rockets at Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) soldiers. Tensions rose following Israel’s discovery of tunnels leading from Gaza to Israel; Hamas retaliated against subsequent Israeli excavations within Gaza. Following mediation by Egypt, Israel withdrew from Gaza and violence subsided. Stabbings and car rammings by Palestinians continued in Israel; mostly resulting in injuries, some assailants killed. PM Netanyahu 25 May replaced Likud’s Moshe Yalon as defence minister with ultra-nationalist Avigdor Lieberman, bringing “Israel is Our Home” party into coalition; followed growing public questioning of army’s commitment to protecting Jewish soldiers. Month saw efforts to renew diplomatic negotiations between Israel and Palestine. France postponed its planned international peace conference from 30 May to 3 June to allow for participation of U.S. Sec State Kerry. Palestinian leadership agreed to postpone efforts to put forward UNSC resolution condemning Israeli settlements to give French initiative a chance; Palestinian PM told journalists that Palestinians expect French initiative to generate internationally supported parameters. Quartet currently focused on issuing report expected to detail obstacles to resolving Israeli-Palestinian conflict, including Israeli settlement activity and Palestinian incitement. Egyptian President Sisi 17 May in live televised speech explicitly addressed Israelis, saying there is a “real opportunity” for peace. In Gaza Hamas 31 May executed three people convicted of murder without approval of Palestinian Authority, required under Palestinian law.
Israeli soldier charged with manslaughter 18 April over 24 March killing of wounded Palestinian assailant in Hebron who no longer posed threat; case dividing Israeli public opinion. Attacks by Palestinians targeting Israelis continued, including Palestinian assailant who attacked soldiers with axe in W Bank 14 April and was subsequently shot dead. Tensions at Jerusalem’s Holy Esplanade increased around Passover, but Israel and Jordan’s rigorous implementation of quiet commitments on access allowed calm to prevail at site; amid fears of renewed violence Israel 22-23 April closed entry points between W Bank, Gaza and Israel. Bomb exploded on bus in Jerusalem 18 April injuring 23; officials said Hamas responsible. PM Netanyahu 11 April announced Israel had conducted dozens of aerial attacks in Syria to prevent Hizbollah obtaining strategic weapons and will continue to do so, did not specify the timeframe or what kind of strikes; 17 April convened cabinet on occupied Golan Heights, announced Israel would hold Golan “forever”, prompting condemnation including from Germany, U.S. and Iran. Negotiations ongoing since March between heads of Israeli army and Palestinian security forces made progress over gradual transfer of full authority to PA in W Bank’s “Area A”: agreed in principle on short trial period for authority to be transferred to PA in all W Bank cities; implementation date remains unclear. France continued diplomatic effort to convene international conference 30 May without Israeli or Palestinian participation; Israel slammed initiative, announcing any diplomatic efforts other than bilateral negotiations would only distance Palestinians from direct negotiations. PA 7 April attempted to advance UNSC resolution condemning Israeli settlement construction. Israeli security officials 20 April said six alleged members of Jewish extremist cell operating in W Bank arrested. Israeli forces 18 April uncovered tunnel from Gaza into Israel.
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