CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Middle East & North Africa

Egypt

Govt continued crackdown on Muslim Brotherhood (MB) members and pro-Morsi Islamists with several arrests, closure of more media outlets and 23 Sept court decision banning all MB activities. Security forces 16, 19 Sept stormed towns of Delga and Kerdasa, retaking Islamist strongholds. EU envoy continuing international efforts to mediate between govt and MB. Experts committee, headed by former presidential candidate Amr Moussa and including only 2 Islamists out of its 50 members, 7 Sept started reviewing constitution draft prepared by technical committee of legal scholars. Constitution to be put to referendum by end-Nov, followed by parliamentary and presidential elections. Amid calls for defence minister and regime strongman General al-Sisi to run for president, army spokesman 22 Sept reaffirmed military does not intend to nominate candidate. Uptick in anti-state violence, most notably in Sinai where suicide bomb 11 Sept killed over 100 soldiers, levelled military intelligence HQ near Rafah. Interior Minister Mohammed Ibrahim survived car bomb attack on his convoy in Cairo 5 Sept, 4 bystanders killed; previously-unknown Sinai-based jihadi group Ansar Beit al-Maqdis claimed responsibility for this and other attacks during month. Increasing use of IEDs reported, ship crossing Suez Canal targeted by RPGs. Military launched large-scale offensive in E Sinai 7 Sept, reported it killed 30 militants in assault on 12 villages; publicly blamed Hamas for allowing Egyptian and Palestinian extremists to use tunnels under Gaza border. Gunmen 30 Sept reportedly killed 3 policemen, one soldier in N Sinai.

Middle East & North Africa

Egypt

Violence by security forces against supporters of former president Morsi continued; daily pro-Morsi protests and sit-ins culminated in 14 Aug army crackdown on Morsi supporters in Nahda and Rabaa al-Adawiya squares in Cairo, some 500 reportedly killed and many injured; army declared curfew and state of emergency. Morsi supporters staged further protests 30 Aug; at least 6 reported killed in clashes with police. Cycle of violence that began 14 Aug believed to have claimed over 1,000 lives. Army continued arrests of Muslim Brotherhood (MB) leaders, including MB supreme guide Mohammed Badie on charges of inciting violence; govt 17 Aug announced it is engaged in “war on terror”, considered dissolving MB, however Interim PM Beblawi 27 Aug said would instead monitor group. Interim govt continued transition plan with drafting of several constitutional amendments behind closed doors. Govt mid-Aug closed Islamist TV channels, arrested journalists critical of new govt. Judiciary 12 Aug extended Morsi’s detention. Prominent opposition figure Mohammed ElBaradei 14 Aug resigned post in new govt as VP for International Affairs in protest at army crackdown. Retribution killings against army and police officers increased in major cities including Giza, Ismailia and Alexandria; pro-Morsi militants 14, 16 Aug reportedly attacked several churches, prompting Coptic Church to declare support for army, police. Ousted President Mubarak released from prison 21 Aug, put under house arrest. Egypt increasingly isolated internationally as army repression widely condemned; EU 21 Aug restricted arms sales to Egypt, will review aid. Violence in Sinai continued, militants 19 Aug killed at least 25 Egyptian soldiers in the border city of Rafah.

Middle East & North Africa

Egypt

Political tensions reached new heights after military leadership 3 July removed President Morsi following mass protests late June/early July, suspended constitution and 4 July replaced him with head of Supreme Constitutional Court Adly Mansour as interim president. Mansour mid-July issued constitutional decree dissolving parliament, also appointed new interim cabinet with no Islamists included; also appointed committee to review amendments to constitution. Muslim Brotherhood refused to concede presidency, 16 July said new cabinet “illegitimate”. Violence intensified as pro-Morsi protesters clashed with security forces and MB opponents; 8 July clash between Republican Guards and Morsi supporters left over 80 supporters and 1 army officer dead. Rival rallies late month saw over 70 pro-Morsi protesters killed. Military detained and arrested hundreds of MB leaders and members as well as Islamist politicians who refuse to recognise legitimacy of 3 July military intervention. Interim govt 31 July said it will take measures to disperse pro-MB sit-ins, considered to constitute a “threat to national security”; protesters defied announcement. Morsi put under house arrest and accused 26 July of murder, kidnapping and ties with Hamas; EU FM Ashton 29 July met Morsi, said appeared healthy. Militant attacks on security forces in Sinai continued, with sporadic sectarian attacks against Christians in Upper Egypt. UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait early July committed aid/loans totalling $12bn.

Middle East & North Africa

Egypt

Tensions between Muslim Brotherhood supporters and  opponents continued to intensify, exacerbated by continued deterioration in socio-economic conditions, increasingly frequent power cuts and gasoline shortages. Amid increasingly aggressive rhetoric on both sides, opposition rejected President Morsi’s 2 June call for national dialogue. Thousands gathered for pro-Morsi rally in Cairo 21 June. Morsi 26 June proposed setting up committee for national reconciliation and another for proposing constitutional amendments, but opposition rejected initiative. At least 10 killed in unrest late month and during large-scale opposition rallies in Cairo and other cities 30 June, which saw tens of thousands protesting calling for Morsi’s resignation and early presidential elections; Morsi supporters also rallied. Anti-Morsi “Tammarud” (“Rebel”) campaign claimed to have gathered 22mn signatures in petition to oust President, while pro-Morsi “Taggarud” campaign claimed to have gathered 25mn signatures insupport of President. Supreme Constitutional Court (SCC) 2 June ruled parliament’s upper house illegal but allowed to keep legislative power until new elections held; Shura Council 23 June approved SCC’s May amendments to draft electoral law. Controversial governor reshuffle by Morsi that saw Gamaa’ al-Islamiyya-founded Building and Development Party member Adel Assad Mohamed al-Khayat appointed as Luxor governor 17 June sparked protests, resignation of tourism minister; al-Khayat resigned 23 June, tourism minister withdrew resignation. Morsi 15 June announced Egypt has cut all ties with Syria, called for no-fly zone and Hizbollah withdrawal from Syria; Syrian govt condemned decision. Relations with Ethiopia still tense over Nile dam project  (see Ethiopia). 

Middle East & North Africa

Egypt

Political stalemate between President Morsi’s administration and opponents continued. Morsi 7 May reshuffled cabinet replacing 9 ministers, raising number of officials affiliated with his Freedom and Justice Party from 8 to 10; prompted criticism from opposition National Salvation Front, which had refused to participate in new cabinet unless PM Qandil is replaced. Anti-govt protests continue, though much reduced in number and frequency: young activist group launched “Rebellion” campaign aimed at gathering 15mn signatures in petition to oust Morsi. Tensions in Sinai ongoing; armed group 16 May abducted 7 security officers, called for release of jailed militants; army 22 May freed officers. Supreme Constitutional Court (SCC) 25 May rejected draft elections law and demanded right to vote be given to army and police; some MPs threatened to sue SCC. No date yet set for parliamentary elections. Ethiopia’s diversion of Nile waters met with protests (see Ethiopia).

Middle East & North Africa

Egypt

Amid ongoing violent clashes between protesters and police, anti-govt protesters 12 April attempted assault on Muslim Brotherhood (MB) HQ in Alexandria and presidential palace in Cairo. Pro-MB and other Islamists 19 April staged protest demanding judicial purge to remove judges linked to Mubarak regime; Justice Minister Ahmed Mekki resigned 21 April pre-empting removal in forthcoming cabinet reshuffle, presidential legal adviser quit 23 April. President Morsi 10 April dropped charges against journalists for “insulting” him in March, including TV satirist Bassem Youssef. Sectarian violence between Copts and Muslims early April left 7 dead in Abbesaya and Al-Khasous north of Cairo. Reports of violence in Sinai mid-April prompted govt to increase security; Salafi militants in Sinai 17 April fired rockets on Eilat in Israel, no casualties. Security forces reported they dismantled Israeli spy network in northern Sinai. IMF loan negotiations ended 16 April without agreement; Libya, Qatar and Turkey offered financial assistance, Iraq, Libya and Qatar low-cost energy.

Middle East & North Africa

Egypt

Amid ongoing stalemate between president and opposition, clashes between police and protestors continued; renewed violence outside Muslim Brotherhood (MB) Cairo HQ 22 March injured over 100; violent protests against MB 23-24 March. President Morsi 24 March warned he would take “necessary measures” to “protect the nation”; prosecutor general 25 March ordered arrest of several activists. Several killed, hundreds injured 3 March when clashes broke out in Port Said following transfer of detainees accused of involvement in 2012 Port Said soccer riot. Port Said court 9 March acquitted 28 defendants, sentenced 5 to life in prison and 21 to death for role in soccer riot deaths; only 2 police officers found guilty. Presidential spokesperson 14 March said families of those killed in recent Port Said violence would be compensated. Increasing demonstrations motivated by shortages, inflation, price increases. Month also saw unprecedented nationwide strikes by police and security forces; demands included dismissal of Interior Minister, separation of police from political conflicts. 6 March court ruling on electoral law technicality postponed parliamentary elections scheduled for 22 April. Sinai security forces late month reportedly arrested 25 Hamas and Al-Qaida militants attempting to cross to Nile Delta, found weapons cache in El-Arish.

Middle East & North Africa

Egypt

President Morsi 21 Feb announced 4-stage parliamentary election starting 27 April, later moved to 22 April to avoid clash with Easter; main opposition coalition National Salvation Front (NSF) 26 Feb announced boycott over transparency concerns. Morsi called for 26 Feb live-broadcast national dialogue session to discuss election fairness guarantees; NSF, Christian representatives did not attend. Govt approved elections monitoring by several NGOs and international organisations. Latest wave of unrest which began 24 Jan continued into Feb in cities and governorates across Egypt, fuelled by anger at police brutality in response to rioting. Protesters outside presidential palace clashed with police 1 Feb; 2 killed. Campaign of civil disobedience initiated 17 Feb in Port Said as protesters demanded official accountability for over 40 protester deaths in Jan violence; over a week of protests, strikes and blockades of govt buildings followed. In attempt to quell anger Morsi 19 Feb agreed to judicial investigation, allocated new funds to area. Civil disobedience campaigns spread to other governorates including Ismailia, Kafr al-Sheikh.

Middle East & North Africa

Egypt

Eve of second anniversary of revolution 26 Jan marked beginning of days of severe unrest and violent clashes between protesters and security forces in major cities; dozens killed. Death sentences given 26 Jan to 21 Port Said soccer fans over Feb 2012 soccer riot sparked massive riots in Port Said, at least 30 killed, over 1,000 injured. President Morsi 27 Jan declared one-month state of emergency and curfew in Suez, Ismailia, Port Said, widely defied by tens of thousands protesting in following days. Morsi same day called for “national dialogue”, rejected by opposition who demanded unity govt and amendments to disputed constitution. Rival factions 30 Jan pledged to condemn violence, participate in talks. Egyptian army chief Gen Abdul Fattah al-Sisi 29 Jan warned political crisis “could lead to a collapse of the state”. As crisis continued Morsi 30 Jan approved law granting army officers judicial arrest power. Court 11 Jan ordered retrial of former president Mubarak, sentenced to life in prison Jan 2012 for involvement in killing of protestors in 2011 uprisings, as well as other regime officials. Supreme Constitutional Court 15 Jan deferred ruling on legality of Egypt’s Islamist-dominated Upper House and Constitutional Assembly. Instability in Sinai continued: policeman shot dead 5 Jan by unidentified gunmen; gunmen 11 Jan attacked patrol protecting cross-Sinai gas pipeline.

Middle East & North Africa

Egypt

President Morsi 25 Dec signed into law contentious constitution giving Islamist-dominated upper house of parliament full legislative powers until vote for new lower house is held in 2 months. Despite opposition “no” campaign, constitution passed by 63.8% in 2-stage constitutional referendum; turnout rate 32.9%. Opposition groups claimed violations in both rounds; leaders 23 Dec called new constitution “illegitimate”, said would use “all peaceful, democratic means” to challenge it. Run-up to referendum saw daily pro- and anti-constitution rallies, some drawing tens of thousands. After series of violent attacks against Muslim Brotherhood offices and figures, clashes between thousands of Morsi supporters and hundreds of opponents 5-6 Dec marked worst violence between political factions since fall of Mubarak, with several killed, hundreds injured; 3 senior presidential advisers resigned, blamed Morsi for violence; in 6 Dec speech Morsi blamed Mubarak cronies, conspiracy of foreign agents, political opposition. Morsi 8 Dec revoked controversial Nov decree awarding him sweeping powers until constitutional referendum, but dispute with judiciary continued: many judges refused to oversee referendum despite legal requirement for judicial oversight.

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