CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
President Morsi 22 Nov issued controversial constitutional declaration temporarily granting himself more powers and immunity from judicial review until a new constitution comes into force; declaration also effectively sacked Mubarak-era chief prosecutor, ordered retrial of recently-acquitted Mubarak officials implicated in violence against protesters, protects Shura Council and Constituent Assembly (CA) from potential court-ordered dissolution, and extended CA deadline to draft new constitution by 2 months. Morsi justified action as necessary to prevent pro-Mubarak judges sabotaging transition proceedings; opposition called declaration a “coup”. Judges 24 Nov said declaration constitutes “unprecedented attack” on judiciary, initiated strike 25 Nov; Morsi 26 Nov made judiciary-proposed compromises to decree. Protests across country started 23 Nov, as well as pro-Morsi counter-protests; 3 killed, hundreds injured in clashes between sides and with security forces. Opposition 25 Nov initiated sit-in in Tahrir Square. CA saw further non-Islamist withdrawals and membership freezes during month, 30 Nov finished draft constitution. However process, quick completion and content of constitution criticised by some liberals, fuelling protests. Morsi said nationwide referendum on draft would be held “soon”; if public approves the constitution, all previous constitutional declarations, including President’s latest, would automatically become void. Morsi credited with negotiating 21 Nov Hamas-Israel ceasefire (see Israel/OPT). Violent clashes began 18 Nov between residents of Qorsaya island in Giza and army over land ownership claims; several killed, 25 arrested. 1 killed, hundreds injured and arrested during days of clashes between demonstrators and police on Mohamed Mahmoud Street in Cairo following 18 Nov demonstration commemorating deadly 2011 clash. 3 members of Egypt’s security forces shot dead, 1 wounded 3 Nov in attack by jihadi gunmen in N Sinai. Militants 26 Nov bombed security bases being built in Sinai, injuring 4. EU approved $6.4bn financial support package; Egypt and IMF reached preliminary deal for $4.8bn loan.
Court 23 Oct referred case challenging constitutionality of Islamist-dominated Constituent Assembly (CA) to Supreme Constitutional Court. Draft constitution released 10 Oct criticised by judiciary, opposition, civil society for shortcomings in human rights, separation of powers. Clashes erupted 12 Oct in Tahrir Square between ruling Muslim Brotherhood and opposition supporters denouncing Islamist dominance of CA. President Morsi attempted to remove Mubarak-era Prosecutor-General following 11 Oct court acquittal of 24 Mubarak loyalists accused of involvement in deadly “Battle of the Camels” attack on antiregime protesters during 2011 uprising. Prosecutor-General 22 Oct ordered investigation into allegations of fraud in presidential election following official complaint by Ahmed Shafiq, who narrowly lost contest; call came day after authorities froze Shafiq’s and family’s assets as part of investigation into his wealth. Libyan militant Karim Ahmed Essam el-Azizi, suspected of involvement in Sept attack on U.S. consulate in Libya, killed by security forces 24 Oct in Cairo. Morsi 8 Oct issued blanket pardon for crimes, except murder, committed in “support of the revolution”.
Some 3,000 protesters demonstrated outside U.S. embassy in Cairo 11 Sept over anti-Islam film; some 200 injured, 1 killed in following days as protesters clashed with security forces. Prosecutor’s office 18 Sept issued arrest warrant for 7 Egyptian Coptic Christians, 1 U.S. pastor for alleged role in film’s production on charges of harming national unity, insulting Islam, spreading false information. Mubarak-era PM and presidential candidate Ahmed Shafiq and 10 aviation officials referred to trial on corruption charges; TV presenter Tawfiq Okasha, on trial for incitement to murder President Morsi, arrested 30 Sept for embezzlement. At 5 Sept Arab League summit, President Morsi endorsed change of govt in Syria; 17 Sept held contact group meeting with Iran, Turkey govts to address crisis; further talks held 27 Sept at UNGA meeting in New York. Govt 8 Sept revealed Egypt-Israel cooperation in Sinai security operation, said 32 “criminal elements” killed, 38 suspects arrested. Unidentified gunmen 14 Sept attacked international peacekeeping base in Gora; 1 soldier killed 16 Sept in armed attack on N Sinai security HQ in el-Arish. Court 8 Sept postponed hearing to 2 Oct of lawsuits challenging legality of Constitutional Assembly’s composition; Administrative Court 22 Sept affirmed Supreme Constitutional Court June ruling that caused dissolution of Parliament.
Authorities launched largest military operation in Sinai since 1973 after militants 6 Aug attacked border post at Rafah killing 16 policemen, captured 2 armoured vehicles in attempt to penetrate Israel; state media said attackers “jihadists” from Gaza; militants 8 Aug reportedly attacked security checkpoints in al- Arish. Military launched airstrikes against suspected Islamists in response, killing 20, started to seal off smuggling tunnels to Gaza. Court 14 Aug sentenced to death 14 members of al-Tawhid wal- Jihad Islamist group over July 2011 attack on al-Arish. President Mursi 8 Aug announced resignation of 7 senior military officers, including Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) head Gen Tantawi, Chief of Staff Gen Anan, appointed Gen al-Sisi as new SCAF head. Mursi 13 Aug rescinded June Constitutional Declaration giving SCAF legislative powers, issued alternative declaration awarding himself powers while parliament dissolved; 2 Aug swore-in new cabinet under PM Qandil; 30 Aug attended Non-Aligned Movement meetings in Tehran, condemned “oppressive” Assad regime in Syria.
Tensions continued between newly-elected President Mursi and military council (SCAF): Mursi 8 July ordered parliament to reconvene, reversing June decision by Supreme Court to dissolve parliament; Supreme Court 10 July overturned presidential decree; SCAF warned Mursi to respect laws, constitution; Parliamentary Speaker al-Katatni same day adjourned parliamentary session pending ruling by high appeals court on implementation of Supreme Court ruling; President Mursi 11 July emphasised commitment to judicial process and dialogue, 24 July appointed water minister Hisham Qandil, a non-partisan technocrat, as PM. U.S. Sec of State Clinton 14 July held first meeting with President Mursi, voiced support for full transition to civilian rule; SCAF warned no-one would prevent it fulfilling role as Egypt’s protector. Authorities 23 July began releasing prisoners detained by military during revolution. Public Prosecutor 16 July ordered former President Mubarak back to prison after improvements in health. Former spy chief and VP Suleiman died 19 July of heart attack in U.S..
Month saw Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohammad Mursi inaugurated president after winning 16-17 June presidential run-off; 24 June announcement by electoral commission (PEC) followed mass protests in Tahrir Square, accusations military junta (SCAF) consolidating power. Justice Ministry 13 June granted military powers to arrest civilians; decree annulled 26 June by court. Supreme Court 14 June dissolved Parliament after finding law on parliamentary elections breached equality between independent and party candidates, same day ruled “political exclusion law” passed by parliament unconstitutional. SCAF 18 June issued declaration granting itself sweeping powers, control over budget, legislation, constitution-writing process. Deal reached 8 June over selection of 100-member Constituent Assembly following talks between heads of 22 political parties, SCAF. Court 2 June sentenced former president Mubarak to life in prison for complicity in killing of protesters; acquitted 4 interior ministry officials, 2 local security chiefs, sparking protests; court 28 June jailed 12 including former oil minister Samih Fahmi over Israel gas deal.
Month saw peaceful voting in 23-24 May presidential elections; announcement of 16-17 June run-off between Muslim Brotherhood’s Morsi, former PM Shafiq sparked protests; Shafiq campaign HQ ransacked 28 May. Military council 31 May ended 31-year state of emergency. Unidentified assailants 2-4 May attacked protesters demonstrating outside defence ministry against military rule, some 11 killed. Bedouin tribesmen 7 May released 10 Fijian members of Multinational Force and Observers (MFO) mission in Sinai, reportedly after demands met.
April saw increasing constitutional and electoral turmoil ahead of 23-24 May presidential elections, mass demonstrations against Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF). Former spy chief and VP Suleiman 6 April announced presidential candidacy, sparking mass demonstration primarily by Islamists; Muslim Brotherhood (MB) warned of second revolution should former regime sympathisers return to power. Higher Presidential Election Commission (HPEC) 15 April disqualified 10 of 23 candidates, including the MB’s al-Shatir, Suleiman, Salafist Abu Ismail; MB said Freedom and Justice Party Chairman Mursi to run instead; tens of thousands of protesters from wide range of groups 20-21 April returned to Tahrir Square demanding handover of power to civilian rule. Salafist al-Nour Party 23 April suffered high-profile resignations over party’s perceived failure to endorse Abu Ismail’s presidential bid. Abu Ismail supporters organised sit-in opposite Ministry of Defence, violently attacked by unidentified assailants. Administrative court 10 April suspended Constituent Assembly following mass boycott by secular, minority groups; Advisory Council called on SCAF to issue complementary constitutional declaration setting criteria for equal representation. MB 18 April warned of “fierce war” to keep Islamists out of executive branch, said democracy in danger. Mohamed ElBaradei 28 April launched new Constitution Party. Protests 17 April disrupted start of trial of suspects in Feb Port Said football violence. Interpol 23 April refused Egyptian request to issue international wanted persons alerts for 15 foreigners linked to U.S.-based NGOs. Egypt state-owned gas company EGAS 23 April announced cancellation of gas deal with Israel over unpaid fees.
Month saw relations between Islamists and secular parties reach low-point over constitution writing process: 5 secular parties, Supreme Court, al-Azhar University late-month boycotted 100-member panel tasked with writing new constitution due to “under representation”; liberal parties accused Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Salafist al-Nour Party of dominating proceedings, announced parallel constituent assembly to write “representative” constitution. Tensions also escalated between MB and ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF): MB’s Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) 21 March threatened vote of no confidence against PM al-Ganzouri govt, renewed calls for FJP-led coalition govt; MB 24 March demanded SCAF hand over power, threatened second revolution if no improvements; SCAF 25 March warned MB to learn from “lessons of history”, MB 31 March announced would run in presidential elections, with Deputy Chairman Khairat al- Shatir as candidate. Chief prosecutor 15 March charged 75 people over February football riot, including police officers, former Port Said security chief; football fans 23 March clashed with security forces in Port Said following decision to ban team for 2 years over violence, 1 killed. Military court 11 March acquitted doctor accused of carrying out forced “virginity tests” on female protesters. Growing lawlessness in Sinai saw gas pipeline attacked 5 March near al-Arish; Multinational Force and Observers (MFO) base in al-Gorah 8 March besieged by Bedouin tribesmen demanding release of jailed member; 2 tourists abducted 18 March visiting St. Catherine’s Monastery
Thugs reportedly associated with rival team 1 Feb killed 74 football fans in Port Said; authorities blamed for failure to prevent riot, prompting violent clashes between anti-military protesters and police at Cairo Interior Ministry; at least 12 killed. Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) 21 Feb criticised army-appointed govt, reiterated call for new national unity cabinet; FJP Ahmed Fahmi elected as speaker of parliament upper house, consolidating Islamist control over legislature. Elections Commission 29 Feb announced presidential elections 23-24 May. Egypt, U.S. engaged in intensive discussions to resolve dispute over foreign funding of NGOs: court 26 Feb adjourned trial of 43 NGO workers until 26 April; all 3 presiding judges resigned; travel ban on 7 U.S. employees lifted. Death sentences of 3 convicted in connection with 2004-2005 Sinai Peninsula bombings lifted 14 Feb.
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