Amid repression of critics, rights groups continued to warn about recent series of laws restricting civil liberties; violence remained low in North Sinai. After President Sisi 29 Nov ratified new law giving authorities special powers to curb COVID-19 pandemic, prominent human rights defender Sherif Azer and other civil society activists in following days accused authorities of seeking alternative to state of emergency, which Sisi lifted in Oct, to maintain extraordinary powers. Several prosecutions appeared to be fast-tracked as military courts established under state of emergency continued to oversee previously referred trials. Notably, military court 20 Dec sentenced prominent civil society activist Alaa Abdel Fattah to five years in prison, and human rights lawyer Mohamed el-Baqer and blogger Mohamed “Oxygen” Ibrahim to four years imprisonment, all on charges of “spreading false news”; convictions not subject to appeal before higher court. Low-intensity guerrilla warfare continued in Sinai Peninsula. Notably, mine allegedly planted by Islamic State-affiliated Sinai Province (SP) 4 Dec killed or wounded five soldiers in Maliz area, central Sinai; suspected militants 14 Dec attacked village and killed soldier near Sheikh Zuweid town (North Sinai). Meanwhile, Sinai Tribal Union operating alongside govt forces around 1 Dec reportedly killed two militants engaged in planting dozens of explosive devices in Manjam area (central Sinai); 3 Dec killed another two near Sheikh Zuweid in operation that reportedly thwarted suicide bombing against army and police forces; late Dec launched large-scale offensive against SP in Al-Arjaa area south of Rafah town, killing two militants. Military around 5 Dec reportedly killed senior jihadist leader Mahmoud Akram al-Laham, also known as Abu Duaa, at undisclosed location in Sinai. Meanwhile, FM Sameh Shoukry 12 Dec met with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) representatives in Saudi Arabia to discuss Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam; GCC officials reportedly expressed support for Egypt’s water security concerns though final statement did not mention issue.

Rights groups accused President Sisi of replacing recently lifted state of emergency with new civil rights restrictions. After Sisi late Oct lifted nationwide state of emergency, parliament 31 Oct approved amendments to counter-terrorism law, Penal Code and public infrastructure law, de facto expanding executive and military powers. NGO Human Rights Watch 5 Nov said amendments “incorporated many emergency-law-like provisions in other laws” and demonstrated govt’s “lack of genuine commitment to ending undue restrictions on basic human rights”. Among few security incidents reported in Sinai Peninsula, Islamic State (ISIS)-affiliated Sinai Province combatants around 4 Nov killed two soldiers in ambush west of Al-Arish town; 15 Nov reportedly launched rocket attack on army armoured vehicle in southern Sinai, killing two soldiers; also allegedly planted mine, which around 21 Nov killed three members of pro-govt tribal militia south of Rafah town. Egypt and Israel 7 Nov agreed to strengthen Egyptian military presence near Rafah border crossing with Gaza Strip; move amounts to amendment of 1979 peace treaty excluding Egyptian military deployment in that area. U.S. daily newspaper The Wall Street Journal 3 Nov revealed Sudan coup leader Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan held secret meeting with Sisi day before 25 Oct Sudanese coup. U.S. and Egyptian officials 8-9 Nov held strategic dialogue in Washington DC, discussed human rights, water and regional security. French govt 22 Nov called for investigation after investigative website Disclose alleged Egypt misused French intelligence – intended to track jihadist militants – to kill civilians.

Violence continued to decline in North Sinai, and President Sisi lifted years-long nationwide state of emergency. Among few security incidents reported in Sinai, army vehicle 3 Oct detonated explosive device allegedly planted by Islamic State-affiliated Sinai Province militants near Al-Masura checkpoint, south of Rafah town; toll unknown. Sisi 7 Oct reportedly issued decree making entire Sinai Peninsula “military zone”, which enables defence minister to impose series of special measures. Meanwhile, Sisi 25 Oct lifted nation-wide security-related state of emergency, which had granted authorities sweeping powers for over four years, and 27 Oct appointed Lt Gen Osama Askar armed forces chief of staff. Human rights groups cautiously welcomed end of state of emergency, with NGO Human Rights Watch 26 Oct deeming move “insufficient” to address country’s “prolonged human rights crisis”. Sisi 12 Oct took part in Visegrad Group summit in Hungary’s capital, Budapest, said country would not give in to any “orders” from EU on human rights; statement comes after U.S. in Sept withheld small section of annual military aid to Cairo due to human rights concerns. Military court 13 Oct upheld life sentences for 32 people accused of plotting to kill Sisi in 2014. Amid stalled negotiations between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (see Nile Waters), Sisi at Cairo Water Week conference 24 Oct called for “balanced and legally binding agreement”. After Turkey’s plans to sell armed drones to Ethiopia disclosed 14 Oct, Egyptian security source reportedly called for freezing of deal, said any such agreement should be discussed between Cairo and Ankara; both countries in recent months have negotiated reestablishing diplomatic ties.

Govt scored major victory against jihadist group amid persistent vio-lence in Sinai, and U.S. decided to withhold part of military aid over human rights concerns. After opponent in exile Mohamed Ali late-Aug urged Egyptians to take to streets against President Sisi on second anniversary of 20 Sept 2019 anti-regime protests, authorities reportedly placed country on high alert; streets 20 Sept remained quiet amid enhanced security presence notably in capital Cairo. In Sinai Peninsula, suspected Islamic State-affiliated Sinai Province (SP) 2-3 Sept abducted eight civilians; army four days later released them. Two IEDs reportedly activated early Sept against army vehicles west of Rafah town and south of Sheikh Zuweid town. In highest-profile defection since insurgency began in 2011, top SP official Mohamed Saad Kamel, also known as Abu Hamza al-Qadi, 10 Sept surrendered to govt-linked tribal union. NGO Human Rights Watch 7 Sept accused security forces of having killed dozens of suspected “terrorists” in extrajudicial executions in recent years, including in North Sinai; called on international partners to halt weapons transfers to Egypt and to impose sanctions against security agencies and officials responsible for abuses. In unprecedented step, U.S. State Dept 14 Sept said U.S. administration will withhold $130mn out of its annual $300mn in conditioned military aid to Egypt until Cairo takes specific steps to improve human rights record; group of 19 human rights groups, which had called on U.S. to block entire $300mn, same day decried decision as “terrible blow” to Washington’s commitment to “human rights first” foreign policy. Delegations of Egyptian and Turkish diplomats 7-8 Sept held second round of discussions in Turkey’s capital Ankara with view to normalising relations; both sides pledged further talks to address divergences.

Amid ongoing violence in Sinai Peninsula, security forces faced accusations of extrajudicial killings. In Sinai Peninsula, army vehicle 9 Aug struck explosive device south of Rafah town, leaving one army colonel killed and several soldiers wounded. Roadside bomb 12 Aug killed seven soldiers including officer and wounded six others near New Rafah town; Islamic State (ISIS) later claimed responsibility. Sniper fire targeted security forces throughout month in New Rafah area, leaving one soldier dead 20 Aug. Armed forces 1 Aug said they had killed 89 suspected ISIS militants in recent operation, and published video showing killings of two unarmed people; NGO Amnesty International 5 Aug called on public prosecution to investigate newly released video which apparently showed security forces engaging in extrajudicial killings in North Sinai. President Sisi 18 Aug signed into law bill granting Supreme Constitutional Court power to decide whether international agreements and court decisions are applicable in Egypt, potentially providing means for authorities to avoid enforcing country’s human rights commitments. Meanwhile, U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken throughout month faced pressure from range of parties, including Democratic caucus at House of Representatives and NGO Amnesty International, not to use national security waiver to release $300mn in military aid for Egypt conditioned on human rights record. U.S. Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns 15 Aug met with President Sisi and General Intelligence Service Director Abbas Kamel in capital Cairo, discussed ways to “enhance security and intelligence cooperation” on various issues including Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Libya, Afghanistan and Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Authorities continued clampdown on outlawed Muslim Brotherhood, and jihadist violence persisted in Sinai Peninsula. Court of Cassation 11 July upheld life sentences of ten Muslim Brotherhood (MB) top officials, including former leader Mohamed Badie, on accusations of killing policemen and organising mass jailbreaks during 2011 uprising. Parliament’s lower house next day approved legal amendment that enables govt to dismiss public sector employees suspected of being affiliated with MB. Court of Cassation 14 July rejected appeal by group of 13 people, including two prominent civil society activists, against their placement on Egypt’s terrorism list in April 2020; all 13 have been detained since 2019 on accusations of having received funds from MB to incite revolution and commit violence. Jihadist attacks persisted in Sinai Peninsula. Notably, Islamic State (ISIS)-affiliated Sinai Province (SP) militants’ gunfire 2 July wounded soldier south of Rafah town and 12 July targeted pro-govt militia south of Sheikh Zuweid town. IEDs likely planted by SP militants 11, 13 and 17 July blew up army tanks south of Sheikh Zuweid, killing or wounding soldiers on board. Suspected SP militants 31 July killed at least five troops in attack on checkpoint in Sheikh Zuweid town: three militants also killed in exchange of fire. NGO Human Rights First 15 July said ISIS recruitment was ongoing in Egyptian prisons and fuelled in large part by torture and other abuse of inmates. Meanwhile, Qatar 29 July named ambassador to Egypt after Cairo and Doha signed reconciliation agreement in Jan; Egypt had appointed ambassador to Doha in late June. Tensions with Ethiopia ran high as Addis Ababa completed second filling of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (see Nile Waters).

Nile waters crisis with Ethiopia started to shake up domestic politics, and jihadist attacks regained intensity in Sinai Peninsula. Various opposition figures tried to use diplomatic impasse over Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD, see also Nile Waters) to challenge President Sisi’s rule. Left-wing and Nasserist opposition groups, along with public personalities 1 June launched new coalition with view to “defending Egypt’s water rights”, notably calling for binding agreement with Ethiopia. Spain-based businessman Mohamed Ali 9 June – whose online videos accusing Sisi of corruption triggered wave of anti-govt protests in 2019 – called on Egyptians to take to the streets 10 July and carry out “Nile Revolution”. In response to rising pressure, authorities continued to clamp down on dissent. Family of former Egyptian Ambassador Yahia Najm, who has criticised govt’s handling of GERD crisis, 6 June said authorities arrested Najm late May. In Sinai Peninsula, jihadists stepped up attacks against army and civilians. Islamic State-affiliated Sinai Province (SP) 3 June infiltrated army camp south of Sheikh Zuweid town, wounding at least four soldiers, and next day ambushed army patrol in same area, reportedly killing or wounding four. IEDs 4 June killed or wounded passengers of pro-army militia vehicle south of Rafah town, and killed intelligence officer in Northern Sinai. Suspected SP combatants 8 June kidnapped five civilians near Bir al-Abd town. IEDs 15-17 June reportedly targeted army convoy and bulldozers in Rafah and Sheikh Zuweid areas; death toll unknown. Meanwhile, army 14 June killed senior SP official Abdullah Bariq al-Awassi south of Rafah

Authorities sought to purge state institutions of outlawed Muslim Brotherhood amid steps toward reconciliation with Ankara. Egyptian newspaper Al-Shorouk 3 May reported parliament was set to discuss draft law aimed at removing civil servants suspected of supporting or sympathising with Islamist organisation Muslim Brotherwood (MB); bill comes after Transport Minister Kamel al-Wazir late April blamed recent spate of deadly train accidents, which prompted calls for his resignation, on “extremists” working in railway sector. Several NGOs, including Democracy for the Arab World Now, in following days criticised bill as “persecution” of MB members. Jihadist violence in Sinai Peninsula persisted at low level; suspected Sinai Province militants 1 May killed three civilians in Al-Arish area. Turkish delegation led by Deputy FM Sedat Önal 5 May visited Cairo to discuss re-establishing diplomatic ties; both sides recorded some progress, but presence of MB members in Turkey and Turkish troops in Libya remained stumbling blocks to full reconciliation; Egyptian delegation expected to visit Turkey in coming weeks. In possible warning to Addis Ababa and preparation for possible escalation of tensions amid reports Ethiopia had started second filling of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Sudan and Egypt 26-31 May held third joint military exercise since Nov 2020 (see Nile Waters). After violent conflict broke out between Israel and Palestinian armed factions in Gaza Strip, Cairo mid-May sent ambulances to Gaza and opened Rafah crossing to allow passage of humanitarian aid; also played leading role in brokering 20 May ceasefire (see Israel-Palestine).

Jihadist insurgency persisted in Sinai Peninsula, while govt took further steps toward rapprochement with Turkey. In Sinai Peninsula, Islamic State (ISIS)-affiliated Sinai Province reportedly redeployed from north to central Sinai under army’s pressure, with build-up reported in Bir al-Abd region and Jabal Maghara area. Suspected Sinai Province militants 2 April killed unspecified number of pro-army militiamen in Manjam village. ISIS 5 April published pictures of execution of tribal militiaman previously kidnapped in al-Barth area, south of Rafah city; 17 April released video showing killing of Coptic Christian and two other men in Sinai Peninsula. Court in capital Cairo 8 April sentenced Mahmoud Ezzat, former acting leader of outlawed Islamist organisation Muslim Brotherhood, to life imprisonment on terrorism charges. In likely attempt to respond to U.S. pressure, authorities 13 April released former opposition party leader Khaled Daoud, next day set free journalists Hosam al-Sayed and Solafa Magdy; all three had been imprisoned since 2019. After train wreck 18 April killed at least 11 people north of capital Cairo, Transport Minister Kamel al-Wazir 20 April sacked head of Railways Authority; al-Wazir 26 April appeared before Parliament amid mounting popular anger over recurrent train accidents. After Egyptian and Turkish officials late March took initial steps to normalise relations, bilateral contacts culminated in 15 April announcement of Turkish delegation’s visit to Cairo in early May; Cairo’s request that Ankara extradite Muslim Brotherhood officials who have taken shelter in Turkey after 2013 military coup remains stumbling block. Meanwhile, tensions mounted further with Ethiopia amid persistent deadlock in negotiations over Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Blue Nile river (see Nile Waters). 

Low-intensity jihadist violence persisted in North Sinai, and group of Western countries, including U.S., condemned crackdown on dissent. In North Sinai, Islamic State (ISIS) affiliate Sinai Province 4 and 11 March reportedly killed eight including at least two civilians; mid-March detonated IED near army armoured vehicle in Sheikh Zuweid area, killing several soldiers. Bedouin tribal force and security forces mid-March killed Salim Salma Said al-Hamadin, senior ISIS commander in Rafah and Sheikh Zuweid areas, south of Rafah town. NGO Human Rights Watch 17 March said demolition of buildings and forced evictions of residents as part of govt’s counter-insurgency policy in Sinai “likely amount to war crimes”. U.S. 12 March joined group of 30 UN Human Rights Council member states to condemn “restrictions on freedom of expression and the right to peaceful assembly” and “application of terrorism legislation against peaceful critics” in first such statement since 2014; govt immediately rejected “reckless” accusations. Amid growing convergence between Egypt and Sudan notably on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam dispute with Ethiopia (see Nile Waters entry), both countries 2 March signed military cooperation agreement; in following days, President Sisi 6 March visited Sudan’s capital Khartoum for first time since 2019 overthrow of Sudan’s former President al-Bashir, while Sudan’s PM Hamdok 11 March travelled to capital Cairo. Turkish FM Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu 12 March reported first diplomatic contacts with Cairo since 2013 coup in Egypt. Egyptian FM Sameh Shoukry 14 March confirmed diplomatic contacts with Ankara but said dialogue was limited and Turkey’s actions must “show alignment with Egyptian principles and goals” for relations to return to normal, in possible allusion to presence of Egyptian opposition leaders in Turkey; partial rapprochement could pave way for understanding on Eastern Mediterranean dispute.